JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS

Financing Political Parties in Mexico.

By Juan Molinar Horcasitas
El Colegio de Mxico.
INTRODUCTION.
Giovanni Sartori (196! "# re$inded us t%at de$ocracy is a deontological conce&t
t%at conveys nor$ative and &ositive $eanings. 't %as nor$ative contens! (ecause
de$ocracy is an intellectual creation! an invention. )%us! *e can not discuss t%e$
*it%out re+erences to what they ought to be. ,n t%e ot%er %and! is also a &ositive
conce&t! (ecause t%ere are real de$ocracies in t%e *orld. )%us! *e can discuss t%e$
+ro$ a &ositive &ers&ective! too. ,+ course! t%e starting &oint o+ any e$&irical study
is a nor$ative assu$&tion! (ecause to study a de$ocracy *e $ust (e a(le to identi+y
it. )%at ta-es us (ac- to its de+inition! and to t%e idea o+ *%at a de$ocracy oug%t to
(e.
Clearly! t%e sa$e is true +or t%e study o+ t%e relations (et*een $oney and &olitics.
'n t%is &a&er! ' a&&roac% t%e su(.ect (ot% nor$atively and e$&irically. 'n t%e +irst
&art! ' study t%e lin-ages o+ $oney and &arties in Mexico +ro$ t%e nor$ative &oint
o+ vie*! and in t%e second ' a&&roac% it e$&irically. 'n t%e +irst &art! ' $a-e a (rie+
descri&tion o+ t%e regulations concerning t%e +inancing o+ &olitical &arties and
elections in Mexico! and t%en ' &ro&ose so$e re+or$s. 'n t%e second &art o+ t%e
&a&er! ' descri(e t%e current situation o+ &u(lic +inancing o+ &arties and elections in
Mexico! and t%en ' discuss t%e e++ects o+ &arty ex&enses on electoral returns.
1. THE NORMATIVE ASPECTS OF MONE AND PO!ITICS IN ME"ICO.
)%e electoral re+or$ $ove$ent in Mexico %as $oved a long *ay since ti$es *%en
electoral +raud *as o&en and +lagrant! (ut i+ t%e current re+or$is$ $ove$ent is not
+ig%ting t%e *orst ex&ressions o+ (allot stu++ing or violence on election day! it still
%as a lot to do. )oday! t%e +ocus o+ t%e agenda is on t%ree issues/ inde&endence o+
t%e electoral aut%orities! +air access to $ass $edia! and t%e regulation o+ ca$&aign
and &arty +inances. Most o+ t%e$ %ave (een addressed (y one o+ t%e nearly 0
re+or$s o+ t%e electoral la*s. 1egarding t%e +inancial issues! *e are entering t%e +i+t%
&%ase o+ re+or$ since t%e &ro$ulgation o+ t%e Constitution! in 1912
1
.
)%e +irst stage covers al$ost six decades +ro$ t%e +irst &ost3revolutionary
electoral la* to t%e re+or$s o+ 1964. 5uring t%is stage! t%e electoral la*s *ere
co$&letely silent regarding t%e +inancial as&ects o+ elections and &arties.
)%e second stage covers t%e &eriod +ro$ 1964 to 1926. )%e Constitutional
re+or$s o+ 1964! *%ic% created t%e so called 7di&utados de &artido8 *ere
acco$&anied (y a $inor re+or$ to t%e electoral o+ 199"! *%ic% introduced so$e
1
:or an overvie* o+ t%e electoral re+or$ $ove$ent in Mexico! see Molinar! 1991.
1
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
+iscal exe$&tions to &olitical &arties. )en years later! t%e electoral la* o+ 1924
introduced t%e conce&t o+ &arty &rerogatives and granted so$e &ostal and
telegra&%ic +ranc%ises to t%e national &olitical &arties. )%e la* said not%ing
regarding &arty or candidate ex&enditures! and did not esta(lis% re&orting o(ligations
to t%e &arties! nor $onitoring &o*ers to t%e aut%orities.
)%e t%ird stage goes +ro$ t%e issuing o+ t%e ;ey :ederal de ,rgani<aciones
=ol>ticas y =rocedi$ientos Electorales o+ 1926 to 1962. )%is la* extended ot%er
su(sides in -ind to &olitical &arties! suc% as &rinting $aterial! and li$ited access to
radio and television during electoral ca$&aigns. )%e la* &rovided very lax and
vague rules +or deter$ining t%e a$ounts o+ &u(lic +unding. )%e la* $entioned no
+or$ula to allocate +unds! and did not &rovide any legal &rocedure to ad$inister and
oversee t%e$. )%e Co$isi?n :ederal Electoral! *%ic% *as under co$&lete control o+
t%e Secretar>a de Go(ernaci?n (;ey :ederal de ,rgani<aciones =ol>ticas y =rocesos
Electorales! articles "6 and "9# received +ull and discretional aut%ority in t%is $atter.
)%e =artido @cci?n Aacional criticised t%is latitude and re+used to receive t%e
su(sidies +or t%e next nine years.
)%e +ourt% &%ase goes +ro$ t%e issuing o+ t%e 1962 C?digo :ederal Electoral to
t%e &resent. )%e 1962 la* *as t%e +irst to introduce non3discretionary &rovisions to
deter$ine t%e a$ounts o+ &u(lic +unding +or t%e &arties. @ccording to t%is la*!
&u(lic +unding +or &arties varied &ro&ortionally to electoral returns! and to t%e
&ercentage o+ seats *on in t%e C%a$(er o+ 5e&uties (C?digo :ederal Electoral!
article 61#. ,nly t%en! =@A acce&ted &u(lic su(sides.
)%e la* esta(lis%ed clear rules +or t%e allocation o+ &u(lic +unds! (ut very +e*
&rovisions +or t%e re&orting and $onitoring o+ &arty +inances.
)%e next ste& in t%e re+or$ o+ t%e $oney and &olitics in Mexico ca$e *it% t%e
C?digo :ederal de 'nstituciones y =rocedi$ientos Electorales o+ 1969 (C,:'=E#.
)%is code introduced ne* rules +or t%e &rovision o+ &u(lic +inancing. )%e ne*
+or$ula distri(uted t%e +unding a$ong &arties according to +our criteria/ electoral
returns! seats in Congress! eBual (ase! and &arty activities. ;ater! t%ey added a +i+t%
source! intended to su&&ort t%e develo&$ent o+ s$all &arties.
1egarding ex&enses! t%e C,:'=E introduced electoral ex&enditure li$its +or t%e
+irst ti$e. Ho*ever! t%ese li$its *ere so %ig% t%at t%ey +ailed to serve t%e &ur&oses
o+ t%e electoral re+or$ $ove$ent. Su++ice it to say t%at! according to regulations! a
&olitical &arty could %ave s&ent al$ost one (illion ne* &esos in t%e 199" +ederal
ca$&aign. @t t%e rate o+ 4.9 &esos +or dollar! t%at a$ounted to $ore t%an 64
$illion dollars. )%at is Buite a su$ +or a country li-e Mexico.
)%e C,:'=E also esta(lis%ed so$e &rocedures +or t%e re&orting and $onitoring
o+ &arty +inances! alt%oug% t%ey are clearly ine++ective. @ny*ay! co$&ared to its
&recedents! t%e current la* constitutes a considera(le advance in t%e direction o+
regulating &arty and election ca$&aigns in Mexico. Cet $any &olitical actors in
Mexico still insist in t%e need o+ $oving +or*ard. )%e $ain o(.ections against t%e

JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS

current la* are t%at it still allo*s enor$ous electoral ex&enses! and t%at it %as too
$any loo&%oles t%at $a-e it ine++ective. )%e +i+t% &%ase o+ re+or$ s%ould deal!
&recisely *it% t%ose issues.
)%e current $ove$ent o+ electoral re+or$ is ai$ing at t%e esta(lis%$ent o+ #air
$la% conditions in t%e electoral arena. )%e (asic ideas are to lo*er t%e ca&s +or
donations and ex&enditures! to $odi+y t%e +or$ula +or t%e allocation o+ &u(lic
s&ending! and to +ill t%e loo&%oles o+ t%e la* to $a-e it en+orcea(le. )o +ul+ill t%ese
goals! it is necessary to re+or$ t%e electoral la*! (ut also to restructure t%e
institutional &rovisions +or t%e overseeing o+ &u(lic ex&enditures. 'n t%e +ollo*ing
&ages! ' *ill &resent a (rie+ analysis o+ t%e &ro(le$.
)%e current regulation o+ &arty +inancing and ca$&aign ex&enditures lac-s
&recision and %as too $any loo&%oles. ' %ave classi+ied t%e di++erent as&ects o+ t%e
+inancing issue using a $atrix +or$ed (y +our varia(les! covering t%e $ost relevant
as&ects o+ t%e issue. :irst! t%e $atrix considers t%e (asic distinction o+ inco$e and
ex&enditure. Second! it considers t%e &rivate or &u(lic origin o+ +unds. )%ird! it
attends t%e &eriod o+ regulation! se&arating t%e regular o&eration o+ &arties! +ro$ t%e
electoral ca$&aigns. :ourt%! it loo-s at t%e su(.ect o+ t%e regulations! &arties or
candidates. )%e co$(ination o+ t%ese varia(les &roduces a $atrix o+ 1 areas or
arenas o+ regulation! s%o*n in ta(le 1. )%e s%ading o+ t%e $atrix areas re&resents t%e
degree o+ regulation in t%e C,:'=E (dar-er areas (eing t%e $ore regulated ones#.
&INSERT TA'!E 1. HERE(
INCOME.
Public funding (areas I to III))
@rticle "9 o+ t%e current la* regulates t%e &u(lic +unding o+ &olitical &arties. )%is is
t%e area o+ &olitical +inancing t%at is (etter regulated! (ut still %as so$e loo&%oles
and de+iciencies.
,ne o+ t%e$ is t%e al$ost co$&lete lac- o+ regulation o+ candidates. )%e
Mexican electoral syste$ is &arty3centred! and candidates as individuals &lay only a
$arginal role. )%is is es&ecially true in t%e case o+ +inancial regulations. Generally
s&ea-ing! &arties! and not candidates are t%e (ene+iciaries o+ &u(lic su(sidies and t%e
su(.ects o+ o(ligations (t%us! areas '''! D'! 'E! E'' y ED in ta(le 1 are not
s%ado*ed#. 'n +act! one o+ t%e +e* $entions to candidates in t%e +inancial sections
o+ t%e electoral la* says t%at t%e national co$$ittees o+ &arties s%all deter$ine t%e
li$its to t%e donations t%at candidates can give to t%eir o*n ca$&aigns (@rticle
"9!11!a!''#.
4
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
)%is e$&%asis on &arties and not candidate %as %ad so$e advantages +or t%e
develo&$ent o+ a &arty syste$ in Mexico! (ut %as also so$e negative conseBuences!
(ecause t%e lac- o+ +inancial legal o(ligations $ay induce irres&onsi(le (e%aviour in
t%e candidates. )%e granting o+ so$e &rerogatives to candidates in exc%ange +or
legal o(ligations $ay (e in order.
)%ere are so$e ot%er *ea- &oints in t%e regulation o+ &u(lic su(sidies to t%e
&arties! suc% as t%e situation o+ &olitical &arties t%at do not &ass t%e t%res%old o+
1.9F (ut get $ore t%an 1F. Ho*ever! t%ese are t%e areas t%at are (etter regulated
in t%e current la*! and $ost &arties %ave agreed t%at t%e C,:'=E needs only $inor
ad.ust$ents.
Income from private sources (areas IV a VI):
'n t%is issue t%ere is consensus! and even =1' leaders %ave &aid at least li& service to
t%e reduction o+ t%e current ceilings. Currently! t%e individuals $ay give u& to one
&ercent o+ t%e total &u(lic +inancing o+ &arties! and alt%oug% cor&orations can not
donate $oney to &arties or candidates! 7&ersonas $orales8 can. 7Moral &ersonsG are
si$ilar to t%e =olitical @ction Co$$ittees in t%e Hnited States! and t%ey can give u&
to +ive ti$es t%e li$it +or individuals. 'n 199"! t%ese li$its *ere eBuivalent to I
!014!600 or HSI 929!421 +or individuals (I10!690!000 or HSI !626!699 +or
collective entities#. )%at 7ceiling8 is 600 ti$es %ig%er t%an t%e co$&ara(le +igure in
t%e Hnited States! *%ile t%e Mexican econo$y is 90 ti$es s$aller. Besides! t%e
o&&ortunities +or evasion are $uc% (etter in Mexico! and aut%orities %ave less
overseeing ca&acity.
@dditionally! t%e la* regulates donations to &olitical &arties! (ut it says al$ost
not%ing regarding t%e candidates as individuals. :inally! it is necessary to strengt%en
re&orting and $onitoring regulations! (ecause t%e current regulations $a-e
en+orce$ent virtually i$&ossi(le. )%e (est exa$&le o+ t%ese li$itations is t%e
in+a$ous 75inner o+ t%e Billionaires8. )%is *as a 7+und3raising8 dinner o++ered (y
Mr. @ntonio ,rti< Mena! +or$er Secretario de Hacienda and +or$er 5irector o+ t%e
'nter @$erican Ban-. )%e dinner! *as attended (y =resident Salinas! Genaro
Borrego! c%air$an o+ =1'! Miguel @le$Jn! Secretary o+ :inances o+ =1'! and (y 9
o+ t%e ric%est Mexican entre&reneurs. )%ere! =resident Salinas %i$sel+ as- t%e$ +or
donations. )%e $ini$u$ coo&eration &er &erson *as 29 $illion &esos eac% (1
$illion dollars#! +or a total target o+ !129 $illion &esos (29 $illion dollars#.
Su&&osedly! t%e o*ner o+ t%e largest Mexican (roadcasting co$&any! )elevisa!
re&lied t%at %e *ould gladly give $ore t%an t%at (C%Jve<! 1994#.
E"PENDITURES.
Direct spending (areas VII to IX):
"
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
:or t%e +irst ti$e! C,:'=E introduced a set o+ regulations over direct ca$&aign
ex&enditures. )%is is one o+ t%e $a.or ste&s to*ard a (etter +inancial regulation.
Cet! current la* s%o*s t%ree s%ortco$ings/
:irst! as *e said! s&ending li$its are so generous t%at! in &ractice! t%ey are no
ceiling at all. )o &ut it (rie+ly/ according to t%e 199" regulations! a &olitical &arty
could %ave s&ent a grand total o+ I 9K2"1!409 or HSI 64!6"0!42" in all +our
ca$&aigns (one +or &resident! 400 +or de&uties! 6" +or senators! and "0 +or $e$(ers
o+ t%e Mexico City @sse$(ly#.
'+ *e co$&ared t%ose 64 $illion dollars *it% t%e a$ounts s&ent in t%e Hnited
States elections! t%e dis&arities are o(vious. )%e current s&ending ceiling +or
&residential candidates t%at acce&t &u(lic +unding in t%e Hnited States is HSI 6
$illion! +or t%e general election! &lus HSI 19 $illion +or t%e &ri$aries! and HSI 1
$illion +or t%e Aational Convention. )%e li$it +or t%e 199 general election *as HSI
99 $illion. 'n contrast! t%e li$it +or &residential candidates in Mexico during 199"
*as HSI "0.2 $illion. ,+ course! t%e actual cost o+ an @$erican &residential is $uc%
%ig%er t%an t%at! (ecause t%e o++icial li$it does not cover $oney s&ent (y &rivate
citi<ens on (e%al+ o+ a candidate or &arty. But t%en again! Mexican loo&%oles are so
large t%at $ost analysts agree t%at t%e Mexican &residential candidate o+ t%e =1'
s&ent $uc% $ore t%an t%e o++icial li$it o+ HSI "0.2 $illion. )%us! at least on t%at
issue! Mexican elections are not t%at +ar +ro$ @$erican standards.
,+ course! it is al$ost i$&ossi(le to esti$ate t%e actual ex&enditure o+ &olitical
&arties and candidates. Cet! one case! t%e 7)a(ascogate8! $ay illustrate t%e ga&
(et*een +or$ality and reality. )%is &olitical scandal ex&loded *%en an anoni$ous
source delivered do<ens o+ (oxes +ull o+ original ca$&aign docu$ents o+ t%e =1'
ca$&aign in )a(asco t%e =15 leader @ndrs Manuel ;?&e< ,(rador. @ccording to
;?&e< ,(rador! t%e docu$ents &roved t%at t%e =1' s&ent in )a(asco 20 $illion
&esos! t%is is! $ore t%an dou(le t%e a$ount o++ically s&ent (y =1' in t%e national
&residential ca$&aing. )%e docu$ents *ere sent to t%e @ttorney General. @+ter a
long .udicial struggle *it% =1' governor Madra<o! *%o tried to (loc- a .udicial
investigation! t%e @ttorney General said t%at t%ere *as +ully docu$ented &roo+ o+ a
total ex&enditure o+ 16 $illion &esos (46 $illion HS dollars at t%e exc%ange rate o+
199"# .

)%at a$ount *as 40 ti$es %ig%er t%an t%e o++icially re&orted +igure.
Madra<oLs scandal $ay (e an extre$e case! (ut at any rate! it tells us so$et%ing
a(out t%e ga& (et*een o++icial re&orts and actual s&ending.
Besides! regulation over &arty s&ending is very lax. @ccounting (oo-s are not
$andatory! disclosure rules are al$ost non3existent! and +iscal overseeing is nil.
Indirect spending (areas X to XII):
@not%er s%ortco$ing o+ t%e la* is t%at it does not regulate indirect ex&enditure!
$ade (y t%ird &ersons on (e%al+ o+ &olitical &arties and candidates. )%us! $ost

7'ndagarJ =G1 +ondos de Madra<o8! Reforma! June 2! 1996.

9
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
o(servers sus&ect t%at large cor&orations s&ent considera(le a$ounts o+ resources on
(e%al+ o+ t%e =1' candidates! *it%out re&orting.
Externalities (areas XIII to XV):
' use 7externalities8 as an eu&%e$is$ +or t%e illegal use o+ &u(lic resources. )%is is
t%e core o+ t%e &ro(le$ in Mexico. Extensive &atronage! and a(use o+ &u(lic +unds
on (e%al+ o+ t%e govern$ent &arty! are t%e 7o&en secret8 o+ t%e =1' +inancial syste$.
)%is is a &ro(le$ t%at goes +ar (eyond t%e sco&e o+ t%e electoral code! (ecause it
&er$eates t%e *%ole +unctioning o+ t%e govern$ent in Mexico. ,ne &arty control o+
(ot% Executive and ;egislative (ranc% %as led to a long &attern o+ corru&tion and
&atronage. )%is goes +ro$ t%e direct use o+ govern$ent resources ($oney! &ersonnel!
eBui&$ent! logistic! in+or$ation! etcetera#! to t%e crudest +or$s o+ &or- (arrel
&olitics.
)%is s&oiled relation (et*een =1' and govern$ent is so dee&ly entrenc%ed! t%at
its solution not only de$ands a co$&lete over%aul o+ t%e la*s dealing *it% t%e use
and overseeing o+ &u(lic +unds. 't reBuires a $a.or &olitical c%ange! (ecause any
institutional arrange$ent t%at *e $ay devise! *ill succu$( to t%e co$&lete control
o+ executive! legislative! and .udicial o++ices (y one &arty.
'n 199"! =1' and =@A &ro&osed t%eir o*n re+or$s to t%e &rocess o+ govern$ent
ex&enditure overseeing. )%e $ain di++erence is t%at t%e =1' &ro.ect allo*s t%e
&resident to no$inate t%e overseeing o++icers. =@A de$ands t%e strengt%ening o+ a
$ulti&arty syste$! *it% strong leverage o+ o&&osition &arties in t%e co$&trollerLs
o++ice.
'n su$! t%e agenda +or t%e re+or$ o+ &olitical +inancing in Mexico covers t%e
+ollo*ing as&ects/
1egulation o+ inco$e and ex&enditure o+ candidates and elected o++icers!
since t%is o$ission in t%e current la* allo*s +or evasion and induces t%e
(uying o+ candidates (y (ig interests.
1eduction o+ legal ceilings to &rivate donations.
1eduction o+ ceilings +or ca$&aign s&ending.
'ntroduction o+ $ore e++ective overseeing instru$ents! and t%e
esta(lis%$ent o+ (etter accounting and re&orting &ractices +or &olitical
&arties and candidates.
1e+or$ o+ t%e govern$ent ex&enditure overseeing &rocess.
*. MONE AND E!ECTIONS) AN EMPIRICA! ANA!SIS.
Hntil very recently! *e did not %ave serious studies o+ t%e +inancial as&ects o+
Mexican elections only secrecy or ru$ors. See! +or instance! t%e (oo- o+ Mario
Guerra ;eal (1926#! a corru&t o&&osition &olitician t%at unveils $any anecdotes o+
%o* t%e govern$ent used &u(lic +unds to corru&t o&&osition &arties. Cet! t%e
gro*ing concerns o+ o&&osition leaders and &u(lic o&inion %as &roduced a vast
6
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
nu$(er o+ articles and (oo-s on t%e su(.ect o+ re+or$! and a +e* good e$&irical
studies t%at &rovide so$e (asic data (Jorge @lcocer! 1994! @rturo SJnc%e<! 199!
,scar Hino.osa! 199"! Miguel @le$Jn! 1999#. Ho*ever! t%is still is an o&en +ield in
Mexico. 'n t%e +inal sections! ' *ill &rovide t%e (asic +igures o+ t%e +inancing o+
&olitical &arties in Mexico. )%en! ' *ill discuss so$e o+ t%e lin-s (et*een ca$&aign
s&ending and vote in t%e 199" election.
*.1 THE PU'!IC FUNDIN+ OF PARTIES AND E!ECTIONS.
=u(lic +inancing o+ &olitical &arties in Mexico %as not (een an eBualiser. @l$ost %al+
o+ all t%e &u(lic +unds allocated +ro$ 1969 to 1996 *ent to t%e co++ers o+ t%e ruling
&arty.
)%e +or$ula +or t%e distri(ution o+ &u(lic +unds to &olitical &arties %as a (uilt3in
(ias against $ediu$ si<e &arties! t%is is! against t%e stronger rivals o+ =1'. )%is is
not an exce&tional +eature o+ t%e Mexican &arty syste$. ,n t%e contrary! *e -no*
t%at electoral +or$ulas in Mexico %ave (een (iassed in +avor o+ t%e largest and t%e
s$aller &arties! &unis%ing t%e $ediu$ si<e organi<ations (Molinar! 1991! Dalds!
199"! Meldon! 1999#. )%e +or$ula +or t%e allocation o+ &u(lic +unds +ollo*s t%e
sa$e &rinci&le. @ (rie+ analysis o+ t%e distri(ution o+ +unds in 1996 *ill illustrate t%e
&oint.
&INSERT TA'!E *. HERE(
)%e current +or$ula uses +ive criteria to distri(ute t%e &u(lic +unding o+ &arties.
:irst! it considers votes. )%e largest &art o+ t%e (udget! covering al$ost 90 F! is
&ro&ortional to &arty votes! and t%us is un(iased.
Second! it considers seats. 't $a-es 40F o+ t%e total (udget. )%is trac- +avors
=1'! (ecause =1' %as (een over3re&resented in t%e C%a$(er o+ 5e&uties! (ut
es&ecially in t%e Senate! +or decades.
)%e t%ird conce&t is called 7general activitiesG. 't covered 1F o+ t%e 1996
(udget! and it distri(uted +unds evenly to all &arties. )%is criterion %as a (uilt in
+avor o+ all &arties (ello* t%e average si<e o+ 16.6F (or 100F N six &arties#.
)%e +ourt% conce&t! *%ic% deter$ined 9F o+ t%e +unds +avour t%e s$aller &arties
(distri(uting a co$$on +und to &ro$ote 7t%e develo&$ent8 o+ &olitical &arties#.
)%e last criterion is varia(le! de&ending on t%e ex&enditure t%at eac% &arty
devoted to researc% and develo&$ent during t%e &revious +iscal year.
Ho*ever! t%e &u(lic +inancing o+ &olitical &arties %as (een instru$ental in t%e
gro*t% o+ o&&osition. )%e a$ount o+ &u(lic +inancing to &olitical &arties gre*
constantly since 1969! +ollo*ing a seasonal cycle *it% &ea-s in electoral years (see
+igure 1#. Cet! in dollar ter$s! it gre* steadily +ro$ 1969 to 199"! (ut it %as
stagnated a+ter t%en (see +igure #.
2
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
&INSERT FI+URES 1 AND * HERE(
*.* EFFECTS OF MONE ON E!ECTIONS.
)%e literature on t%e lin-s (et*een $oney! &arties and elections is enor$ous
(@lexander! 1926! del Castillo! Gunlic-s! 1964! Heiden%ei$er! 1920! Mal(in! 196"!
=into35usc%ins-y! 1961#. :or t%ese t*o countries! *e even %ave detailed e$&irical
studies o+ t%e electoral e++ects o+ constituency ex&enditures (Green and Orasno!
1966! Jaco(son! 1926a! 1926(! 1990! Jo%nson! 1929!1962! Orasno! 199"#! *%ic%
are rare or non3existent else*%ere. )*o institutional +eatures o+ t%ese countries
+avour t%e &roduction o+ suita(le data! inducing sc%olars to study t%e issue. :irst!
(ot% countries %ad esta(lis%ed regulations over t%e ex&enditures o+ &arties and
candidates. Second! t%eir single3$e$(er3district electoral syste$s induce t%e
disaggregation o+ data! *%ile $ulti3$e$(er3district electoral syste$s induce t%e
aggregation. :or $any years! Mexico %as %ave single $e$(er districts! (ut! as ' said
(e+ore! until 1966 t%e la* %ad very +e* &rovisions +or t%e re&orting o+ &arty
+inances. =rovisions +or t%e re&orting o+ &arty ex&enditure at t%e constituency level
*ere esta(lis%ed +or t%e +irst ti$e in 199". )%us! +or t%e +irst ti$e *e can study t%e
e++ect o+ ex&enditures in elections! *it% a caveat/ t%ese &rovisions are so lax! t%at *e
s%ould ex&ect all &arties to under3re&ort t%eir ex&enditures. @ny*ay! t%e recently
availa(le data is t%e (est a&&roxi$ation *e %ave ever %ad
4
.
,(viously! t%ere are very +e* studies availa(le on t%e lin-s o+ $oney and &olitics
in Mexico! and none o+ t%e$ deals *it% t%e electoral e++ect o+ constituency level
s&ending. @$ong t%e (est studies availa(le one s%ould $ention t%ose o+ @$es
(1969#! Molinar and Meldon (199"#! Bro&%y (199"#! 5avis and Cole$an (199"#!
and Buend>a (199"#. @$es +ound t%at Govern$ent s&ent $ore in states *it%
stronger o&&ositionP Molinar3Meldon +ound a strong electoral relations%i& (et*een
an i$&ortant govern$ent &rogra$ (=1,A@S,;#! elections! and &arties.
S&eci+ically! Govern$ent s&ent $ore $oney in states %aving local elections and
strong le+tist o&&osition. Bro&%y +ound evidence t%at t%e le+tist vote is &ositively
related to in+lation! and negatively related to inco$e &er ca&ita. 5avis and Cole$an
+ound t%at &erce&tions o+ *el+are and access to govern$ent resources a++ect votersL
decisions. Buend>a +ound a si$ilar lin- (et*een vote intention and evaluations
=1,A@S,;.
)%ose studies s%o* t%at econo$ics! and $oney! $atter! (ut t%ere is not%ing
*ritten on t%e relations%i&s (et*een electoral ex&enditure and vote intentions in
Mexico. )%e reason is si$&le/ until 199"! *e %ad no data on ca$&aign ex&enses.
)%is section o+ $y &a&er *ill deal s&eci+ically *it% t%e electoral e++ects o+ &arty
ex&enditure at t%e district level.
4
@dditionaly! t%e re&orts s%o* a (ig variance in t%e a$ount s&ent (y &arties at t%e district level. )%e variance is
(ig (et*een and *it%in &arties. )%is variance does not $ean t%at t%e data are relia(le! (ut t%e converse is true/ a
s$all variance in t%e re&orted ex&enditures *ould %ave (een an additional $otive o+ caution *%en using t%e data.
6
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
&INSERT TA'!E ,. HERE(
)a(le 4 &resents a national su$$ary o+ t%e o++icially re&orted ca$&aign
ex&enditures o+ t%e $ain &arties in 199". @s it can (e seen! =1' candidates outs&ent
o&&osition contenders (y +ar. @ccording to t%e re&ort o+ t%e +inancial director o+ =1'!
%is &arty s&ent 49 $illion &esos in all +ederal elections in 199". )%e second $ost
ex&ensive ca$&aign! t%at o+ =artido @cci?n Aacional! =@A! ca$e very +ar +ro$ =1'
levels! totalling "4 $illion &esos! *%ile t%e t%ird &arty! =15! s&ent less t%an 0
$illion &esos. )%e re$aining six &arties s&ent around 2 $illion &esos! or seven
&ercent o+ t%e total. )%is $eans t%at =1' outs&ent =@A (y a +actor o+ 6 to 1! and
=15 (y a +actor o+ 12 to 1. @t t%e lig%t o+ suc% nu$(ers! t%ere is no *onder in t%e
=1' victory. )%e interesting as&ect is t%at t%e $argin o+ victory *as 7only8 1.6 to 1
against =@A! and .9 to 1 against =15.
)%ese +igures are even $ore contrasting +or t%e congressional elections! since
o&&osition &arties %us(anded $ost o+ t%eir resources in t%e &residential race! *%ile
=1' *as a(le to s&read t%e$ $ore evenly. :or instance! =@A and =15 s&ent 29 and
60 &ercent o+ t%eir total &urse in t%e &residential race (t%at is! 4 and 11 $illions
res&ectively#! *%ile =1' re&orted a 16 $illion s&ent in t%e &residential ca$&aign!
*%ic% $ean a $ere "1 &ercent o+ its total re&orted ex&enditure. 'n +act! since t%at
+igure *as .ust a +e* $illions s%y o+ t%e legal ex&enditure li$its! it is not unt%in-a(le
t%at so$e $oney s&ent in t%e &residential ca$&aign *as distri(uted! +or accounting
&ur&oses! t%roug%out t%e ot%er "0" electoral re&orts.
"
@dditionally! $ost
inde&endent o(servers agree t%at t%e o++icial re&orts o+ t%e =1' *ere grossly
underesti$ated. )%e 7)a(ascogate8! t%at ' descri(ed (rie+ly in a &revious section o+
t%is text! $a-es t%e &oint.
)%us! *e $ust acce&t t%at t%e +igures rendered (y all &arties! (ut es&ecially (y
=1' s%ould (e ta-en *it% $ore t%a a grain o+ salt. Ho*ever! ' t%in- t%at *e can use
t%e$! (ecause *e -no* t%at t%e (iass is to t%e underre&orting o+ ex&enditures! and
*e can assu$e t%at t%is (ias a++ect eBually all candidates across all districts. @t any
rate! t%e +act is t%at *%ile =1' &residential candidates! ;uis 5onaldo Colosio and
Ernesto Qedillo! outs&ent t%e &anista " to 1! and t%e &erredista 11 to 1! t%e ratio is
even larger in Congressional elections.
)%e nu$(ers +or t%e C%a$(er o+ 5e&uties are t%e +ollo*ing/ =1' s&ent 10"
$illion &esos! *%ile =@A and =15 s&ent a little over 9 $illion &esos eac%. )%is
$eans a 0 to 1 ratio in +avour o+ =1' (*%ic% contrast &oorly to a less t%an to 1
ratio in electoral returns#. Evidently! t%ese contrasting ratios s%o* t%at t%e 7$arginal
"
)%ese "0" re&orts corres&ond to re&orts 400 single3$e$(er seats in t%e C%a$(er o+ 5e&uties! 6" $a.ority seats in
t%e Senate! and "0 single3$e$(er seats in t%e ;egislative @sse$(ly o+ Mexico City.
9
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
&roductivity8 o+ eac% &eso s&ent (y t%e &ri>stas is $uc% lo*er t%an t%e $oneys s&ent
(y o&&osition &arties.
9
1egarding Senate elections! t%e ratios are si$ilar. @ccording to o++icial re&orts o+
t%e 199" election! =1' outs&ent its rivals (y +ar. M%ile =1' s&ent 60 $illion &esos!
=@A s&ent 9 $illion &esos! and =15 only .9 $illion.
Given t%ese enor$ous ineBualities! t%e electoral victories o+ =1' see$ all (ut
inevita(le. Ho*ever! *e still can learn so$et%ing +ro$ t%e study o+ lin-s (et*een
ex&enditure and vote at t%e constituency level. :or t%at &ur&ose! ' %ave run a
regression $odeling o+ t%e =1'! =@A! and =15 vote at t%e district level (AR400#. 't
$easures! +or =@A! =15! and =1'! t%e electoral e++ects o+ ca$&aign ex&enditures o+
all &arties at t%e district level! controlling +or &revious electoral co$&etitiveness!
region! and so$e sociode$ogra&%ic c%aracteristics o+ t%e districts. )%e de&endent
varia(le is &ercentage o+ vote in t%e district. )%e inde&endent varia(les are/
=@A ex&enditure/ t%ousand o+ &esos s&ent (y eac% =@A candidate +or de&uty in
%is or %er district! as re&orted to t%e 'nstituto :ederal Electoral.
=1' ex&enditure/ t%ousand o+ &esos s&ent (y eac% =1' candidate +or de&uty in %is
or %er district! as re&orted to t%e 'nstituto :ederal Electoral.
=15 ex&enditure/ t%ousand o+ &esos s&ent (y t%e =15 candidate +or de&uty in %is
or %er district! as re&orted to t%e 'nstituto :ederal Electoral.
Au$(er o+ &arties index/ 7Au$(er o+ &arties index8 o+ eac% district. 't is an
index t%at varies +ro$ 1 to A de&ending on t%e concentration or dis&ersion o+
votes a$ong &arties.
6
Aort%/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e states o+ C%i%ua%ua!
Coa%uila or 5urango! and 0 els*%ere.
Aort%*est/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e states o+ Ba.a
Cali+ornia! Ba.a Cali+ornia Sur! Sonora! Sinaloa! and Aayarit! and 0 els*%ere.
Center3Mest/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e states o+
@guascalientes! Coli$a! Guana.uato y Jalisco! and 0 els*%ere.
5. :. State o+ Mexico/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e states
o+ Mexico o+ in t%e :ederal 5istrict! and 0 els*%ere.
Sout%/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e states o+ C%ia&as!
,axaca! Guerrero! )a(asco! Ca$&ec%e! or t%e sout%ern ti& o+ Deracru<! and 0
els*%ere.
Mic%oacan/ @ du$$y varia(le. 't is 1 i+ t%e t%e district is in t%e state o+
Mic%oacJn! and 0 els*%ere.
9
)%is +inding is consistent *it% t%e 7incu$(ent advantadge e++ect8 +ound in t%e Hnited States (Jaco(son! 1926#.
6
't is a derivation o+d t%e ;aa-so3)aage&era 7nu$(er o+ &arties8 index. :or a discussion o+ t%e index and t%e
ex&osition o+ its +or$ula see Molinar 1991(.
10
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
Metro&olitan &o&ulation/ &ercentage o+ &o&ulation o+ t%e district living in cities o+
90!000 or $ore in%a(itants.
;o* salaries/ &ercentage o+ &o&ulation earning no $ore t%an one $ini$u$ *age.
'ndustriali<ation/ &ercentage o+ econo$ic active &o&ulation occu&ied in t%e
$anu+acturing industries.

' introduced a $easure o+ co$&etitiveness to ca&ture in a single varia(le t%e
relative strengt% o+ &arties in t%e &revious election. ' introduced regional and
socioecono$ic varia(les (ecause *e -no* +ro$ &revious studies t%at correlate *it%
t%e &artiesK constituencies
2
.
)%e +irst t*o interesting +indings are closely lin-ed. :irst! ' +ound t%at t%e
coe++icients +or =1'! =@A! and =15 ex&enditures at t%e district level are not
discerni(le +ro$ <ero (see ta(le "#. )%is $eans t%at t%ere is no evidence t%at t%e
=1' vote is a++ected at all (y t%e level o+ ca$&aign ex&enditure o+ any local
candidate.
6

)%e +actors t%at ex&lain $ost o+ t%e =1' vote variance are t%e level o+
co$&etitiveness o+ t%e district! as $eausred (y t%e e++ective nu$(er o+ &arties in t%e
&revious elections. ' +ound t%at t%e =1' &ercentage o+ vote in t%e district +ell !92
units +or eac% additional unit o+ e++ective nu$(er o+ &arties.
1egionally! t%e 199" election *as +ull o+ novelties! since tt%e strong%olds o+ =1'
su&&ort *ere not t%e usual ones. :or insance! t%e traditional sout%ern strong%old
(eca$e a *ea- region +or t%e =1' candidates. ,n average! sout%ern =1' candidates
received a(out 2 &ercentual &oints less t%an t%e average candidate. ,(viously! t%is
trend re+lect t%e con+licts o+ C%ia&as! (ut also t%e strong =15 &er+or$ances in t%e
oild districts o+ )a(asco and sout%ern Deracru<.
)%e &er+or$ance o+ =1' candidates in t%e states o+ Mexico! 5. :.! and es&ecially
Mic%oacJn (t%e state o+ Cuau%t$oc CJrdenas# *ere! as ex&ected! &oorer t%an t%e
average. Cet! t%e strong &er+or$ance o+ =1' candidates in t%e Aort%! *%ic% is
su&&ossed to (e a &anista (astion *as a (ig sur&rise. )%e sur&rise *as s&ecially (ig
in C%i%ua%ua! *%ere =1' received its %ig%est &ercentage returns! and de+eated =@A
candidates al$ost every*%ere.
1egarding socioeco$ic varia(les! t%ere are no sur&rises. =1' still &er+or$s (etter
in rural and &oor contexts (see t%e coe++icients +or $etro&olitan districts and districts
*it% lo*er average salaries#.
@ second +inding! or lac- o+! *as t%at t%ere is no evidence to su&&ort t%e
%y&ot%esis t%at t%e ex&enditures o+ =1' candidates +or t%e C%a$(er o+ 5e&uties at
2
:or a discussion o+ t%ese constituencies see Olesner 199" and Molinar and Meldon 1990.
6
)%e signs o+ t%e coe++icients t%at $easure t%e e++ect o+ =1' and =15 on =1' vote are as ex&ected (&ositive and
negative! res&ectively#. )%e sign o+ t%e coe++icient o+ =@A ex&enditure (&ositive# is not! (ut it is not statistically
discerni(le +ro$ <ero (it s%o*s a s$all t3statistic o+ 0.91#. )%e t3statistics +or =1' and =15 coe++icients are 31."0!
and 0."9! as can (e seen in ta(le ".
11
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
t%e district level %ave any i$&act on t%e level o+ vote o+ t%eir o&&osition rivals.
'ndeed! t%e coe++icients t%at $easure t%e e++ect o+ =1' ex&enditure at t%e local level
on =@A! and =15 voting are not discerni(le +ro$ <ero (see ta(les 9 and 6#.
9

)%ese results are counter3intuitive! (ut t%ey %ave a so$e*%at o(vious ex&lanation.
)%ese nil results do not $ean t%at ex&enditure (y =1' at t%e district level %ave no
e++ect at all on t%e vote. M%at t%ey $ean is t%at *%en &residential and congressional
elections concurred! t%e national &residential ca$&aing o+ t%e =1' does $ost o+ t%e
.o( o+ getting out t%e vote.
@+ter all! t%e o++icial ex&enditure o+ t%e =1' &residential candidate (16 $illion#
*as %ig%er t%an t%e total ex&enditure o+ t%e eig%t o&&osition &arties &ut toget%er!
including &residential! senatorial! de&uties! and legislative ca$&aigns (90 $illion#. '+
*e li$it t%e co$&arison to t%e $ain o&&osition &arties! t%en *e +ind t%at t%e =1'
&residential candidate s&ent t*ice as $uc% as t%e 606 candidates +or &resident!
senators! de&uties and legislators o+ t%e =@A and =15 co$(ined.
)%e cottail e++ects o+ t%e &residential ca$&aign ex&enditures are even $ore
i$&ressive i+ *e loo- at t%e +igures s&ent on $ass $edia advertise$ent. )%is is a
critical issue! +or every survey &olls +ound t%at $ost voters gat%ered t%eir electoral
in+or$ation +ro$ radio and television. ,+ course! t%e &residential ca$&aign o+ t%e
=1' too- t%e lionLs s%are o+ t%e co$$ercial advertise$ent in t%e ca$&aing.
@ccording to t%e o++icial re&orts o+ ca$&aign ex&enditures! t%e nine &olitical &arties
s&ent 109 $illion &esos in co$$ercial &ro&aganda in &ress! radio and television.
)%e =1' *as t%e (ig s&ender! a(sor(ing al$ost all t%e ex&enditure on $ass $edia/
6" $illion! or 61F o+ t%at total. =@A ca$e in a distant second! *it% 19 $illion! or
19 F o+ t%e total a$ount s&ent in $edia advertise$ent! and t%e rest o+ t%e &arties
$a-e t%e re$aining +ive &ercent.
@dditionally! t%e concentration o+ resources s&ent in $ass $edia (y t%e
&residential ca$&aigns *as even %ig%er t%an in t%e rest. )%e nine contending &arties
s&ent 112 $illion in t%ings ot%er t%an $edia in t%e &residential ca$&aings! *%ic%
re&resents 46F o+ t%e total ex&enditures on non3$edia ite$s (y all &arties in all t%eir
+ederal ca$&aigns in 199". 'n contrast! t%e nine &residential candidates s&ent 6
$illion! or 99F o+ t%e 109 $illion devoted to $edia advertise$ent (y t%eir &arties in
all t%eir +ederal ca$&aigns.
Ao need to say t%at $ost o+ t%ose $oneys ca$e +ro$ t%e co++ers o+ t%e =1'. )%e
=1' &residential ca$&aing *as res&onsi(le +or $ore t%an "2 $illion &esos s&ent in
$ass $edia! *%ic% a$ounts to "9F o+ all t%e resources s&ent (y all &arties in $edia
advertise$ent. 'n +act! t%e &residential candidate o+ t%e =1' s&ent $ore $oney .ust
in &ress! radio! and television t%an t%e total ex&enditures o+ t%e 4!000 non3
&residential candidates o+ t%e eig%t o&&osition &arties &ut toget%er ("2 $illion versus
49 $illion! res&ectively#.
9
@s it can (e seen in t%e second line o+ ta(les 9 and 6! t%e t3statistics o+ t%e varia(le 7=1'Ls candidate ex&enditure
(y district level8 are extre$ely lo* (0.44! and 30.46! res&ectively#.
1
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
)%ese tre$endous ineBuities (e*teen t%e ca$&aign +unds o+ t%e =1' &residential
candidate and t%e o&&osition s%ould su++ice to ex&lain t%e &re&onderance o+ t%e
national ca$&aigns over t%e constituency level ca$&aings.
Ho*ever! t%e study o+ t%e &atterns o+ ca$&aign ex&enditure at t%e constituency
level do s%o* so$e interesting +indings. 'n &articular! it s%o*s t%at t%e Mexican
electoral syste$ induces co$&etition a$ong o&&osition &arties! and not only
(et*een o&&osition &arties against t%e govern$ent &arty. )%is +eature o+ t%e
Mexican electoral syste$ %as (een instru$ental in t%e survival o+ =1'.
10
)a(le 9 &resentes t%e deter$inants o+ =@A vote at t%e district level. 1egarding
s&ending! it s%o*s t%at! ceteris paribus! &anistas do (etter *%en t%ey s&end $ore
$oney in t%eir o*n districts! and t%at t%ey do (etter as t%eir =15 rivals s&end $ore
$oney in t%e sa$e district. )%is is t%e ex&ected e++ect o+ s&ending. @ccording to t%e
coe++icients! t%e average =@A candidate gets one additional &ercentual &oint +or eac%
additional I1"!40" (or HSI "!066# s&ent (y %i$ in %is o*n district. But it also
s%o*s t%at t%e average =@A candidate looses one &ercentual &oint +or eac%
additional I6!""9 (or HSI !"1"# s&ent locally (y %is or %er =15 rival.
11

)%ese e++ects are si$etric +or =15 candidates. )a(le 6 s%o*s t%at! ceteris
paribus! =15 candidates do (etter as t%ey s&end $ore $oney in t%eir o*n
ca$&aigns! and do *orse as t%eir rival &anistas s&ent $ore $oney in t%e district.
@ccording to ta(le 6 coe++icients! t%e average =15 candidate gets one additional
&ercentual &oint +or eac% additional I6!0 (or HSI 1!222# s&ent (y %i$ in %is o*n
district! ceteris &ari(us. @nd .ust as in t%e =@A case! it also s%o*s t%at t%e average
=15 candidate looses one &ercentual &oint +or eac% additional I1"!291 (or HSI
"!1"# s&ent locally (y %is or %er =@A rival.
1
@s ' said (e+ore! neit%er =@A nor
=15 district level vote is a++ected (y t%e ex&enditure o+ t%eir =1' rival in t%e district!
(ecause $ost o+ t%e =1' s&ending e++ects are accounted (y t%e national &residential
ca$&aign.
1egionally s&ea-ing! =@A and =15 are al$ost a $irror i$age. )%e strong%olds o+
=@A candidates are t%e Center3Mest region! *%ere! ceteris paribus! t%ey get 6
&oints over t%e &arty average. )%e *ea- regions o+ &anistas *ere Mic%oacJn!
:ederal 5istrict3Mexico! and t%e Sout%! *%ere! ceteris paribus! its candidates got
.1! 1.4! and 1.1 &oints (elo* t%e &artyLs average.
)%e strong%olds o+ =15 are Mic%oacJn! *%ere t%ey get! %olding everyt%ing else
constant! 0 &oints a(ove average. =15 candidates also &er+or$ed (etter t%an t%e
average in t%e Sout% and t%e area covered (y t%e State o+ Mexico and t%e :ederal
10
See ;eonardo Dalds 199"! and Je++rey Meldon1999.
11
)%e coe++icient t%at $easures t%e electoral e++ect on t%e vote +or =@A o+ eac% t%ousand &esos s&ent (y t%at &anista
candidate in %is or %er o*n district is 0.069 *it% a t3statistic o+ .90. )%e coe++icient t%at $easures t%e e++ect on
t%e vote +or =@A o+ t%e ex&enditure o+ %is or %er rival =15 candidate is 30.116! *it% a t3statistic o+ 31.6".
1
)%e coe++icient t%at $easures t%e electoral e++ect on t%e vote +or =15 o+ eac% &eso &er ca&ita s&ent (y t%at =15
candidate in %is or %er o*n district is 0.160 *it% a t3statistic o+ .22. )%e coe++icient t%at $easures t%e e++ect on
t%e vote +or =15 o+ t%e ex&enditure o+ %is or %er rival =@A candidate is 30.062! *it% a t3statistic o+ 3".69.
14
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
5istrict! *%ere t%ey received! %olding everyt%ing else constant! 10 and 16 &oints
a(ove t%e average. )%eir *ea- areas are Aort% and Center3Mest! *%ere t%ey
received ! 4 &oints (elo* average.
)a(les 9 and 6 also s%o* t%at t%e sociode$ogra&%ic correlates o+ =@A and =15
are si$$etrical. =@A does (etter in $etro&olitan districts and in districts *it% %ig%
&ro&ortions o+ &o&ulation e$&loyed in $anu+acturing industries (6 and ".6 &oints
a(ove average#. 'n contrast! t%e electoral su&&ort o+ =15 candidates is not strongly
associated *it% t%e ur(an3rural continu$! s%o*ing t%at =15 still gat%ers su&&ort
(ot% +ro$ t%e cities and t%e countryside. )%is is an i$&ortant c%aracteristic o+ t%e
=15! (ecause it is t%e only o&&osition &arty t%at %as $ade (uild so$e su&&ort in t%e
rural areas (Molinar and Meldon! 1990#.
,+ course! t%ese results s%ould (e ta-en *it% caution. :irst! (ecause as ' said
(e+ore! *e s%ould assu$e t%at t%ere is considera(le underre&orting o+ ex&enditures
(y all &arties! (ut es&ecially (y =1'. Second! (ecause t%ese it *ill (e interesting to
co$&are t%e e++ects o+ constituency level ca$&aign ex&enditure in &residential and
non3&residential elections. Cet! t%ese +indings give us so$e interesting clues! until
*e get $ore relia(le +igures! and evidence +ro$ &residential and inter$ediate
elections! t%ese +indings.
,. CONC!USIONS.
)%e electoral re+or$ $ove$ent *ill continue to &ress %ard +or a co$&lete over%aul
o+ t%e syste$ t%at regulates $oney and &olitics in Mexico. @ttention *ill (e +ocused
in t%e +ollo*ing issues/
1eduction o+ legal ceilings to &rivate donations.
1eduction o+ legal ceilings +or ca$&aign s&ending.
'ntroduction o+ $ore e++ective overseeing instru$ents! and t%e
esta(lis%$ent o+ (etter accounting and re&orting &ractices +or &olitical
&arties and candidates.
1egarding our -no*ledge o+ t%e electoral e++ects o+ ex&enditure in &olitical
ca$&aings! *e %ave learn t%at t%e national ca$&aing o+ t%e =1' do$inates t%e *%ole
syste$. )%us! constituency level ex&enditure (y =1' candidates does not %ave a
&o*er+ul electoral e++ect! at least *%en &residential and congressional elections
concur. Cet! ' %ave +ound t%at t%e syste$ induces co$&etition (et*een o&&osition
&arties! and t%at t%e district level ex&enditure o+ o&&osition candidates do %ave a
&ositive e++ect on t%eir o*n votes! and an negative i$&act on t%e vote o+ t%eir
o&&osition rivals.
1"
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
DATA FROM FI+URE 1)
-MI!!IONS OF PESOS.
CE@1 =1' ),)@;
1969 I 9.9 I 19.
1990 I 1".9 I 6.2
1991 I "6. I 106.1
199 I ""." I 66.
1994 I 66.9 I 149.
199" I 99." I 01.4
1999 I 2.9 I 121.6
1996 I 1"0." I 69.2
DATA FORM FI+URE *)
-MI!!IONS OF US DO!!ARS.
CE@1 =1' ),)@;
1969 I ".0 I 2.2
1990 I 9. I 10.1
1991 I 16.0 I 49.
199 I 1"." I 2.9
1994 I 1." I "4.9
199" I 9.9 I 99.6
1999 I 11.4 I 6.6
1996 I 16.2 I 46.6
19
JUAN MOLINAR HORCASITAS
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12