July11,2014

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ByNathanL.Gonzales
Postedat2:40p.m.July11
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RatingChange:NewJerseys3rdDistrict
Runyanissteppingdown,leavingopenacompetitiveseat.(BillClark/CQRollCallFilePhoto)
RepublicanRep.JonRunyanisonlyinhissecondterm,buthequicklyestablishedhimselfasa
verydifficulttarget.HisretirementfromNewJerseys3rdDistrictgivesDemocratsabetter
opportunitythere,butthisisnolongerapuretossuprace.
TheSouthJerseyareahasbeencompetitive,andPresidentBarackObamahascarriedthe
districttwice.ButtheonlytimeaDemocrathaswonthecongressionalseatinrecenthistory
was2008,whenJohnAdlerwontheopenseat.
ThatwasagoodDemocraticyearanditwasalsoaslightlymoreDemocraticdistrict.The
DemocraticareasofCherryHillinCamdenCountyweredrawnoutofthe3rdDistrictpriorto
the2012elections.
DemocratshaveacrediblecandidateinAimeeBelgard,whorepresentsmorethanhalfofthe
congressionaldistrictasaBurlingtonCountyfreeholder.ButBelgardandherpartycouldhave
ahardtimekeepingupinthespendingraceinadistrictthatisdividedbetweenthe
PhiladelphiaandNewYorkCitymediamarkets.
RepublicansnominatedwealthyinsuranceexecutiveTomMacArthur.Hehassomepotential
vulnerabilitiesinhisbackgroundwithregardtohisbusinessanddisasterrelief,andherecently
movedtothedistrictfromnorthJersey.Butheisverypersonableandhasshownawillingness
tospendwhatittakestowin.
MacArthurjustwentupwithasignificantcablebuyinBurlingtonCounty,accordingtoone
GOPoperative.ThecountyiscoveredbythePhiladelphiamediamarket.The60secondadis
entitledIntegrity.
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cutthroughthepoliticalhypeandpartisantalking
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AboutStu
Imanonpartisanpoliticalanalyst/handicapper
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IhavebeenpublishingtheRothenbergPolitical
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AboutNathan
NathanL.Gonzalesisdeputyeditorofthe
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contributingwriterforsixyears.@nathanlgonzales
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House,NewJersey
ThebottomlineisthatthishastraditionallybeenaRepublicanleaningdistrictatthe
congressionallevel,Republicanshaveacrediblecandidate,andthisisturningouttobeat
leastaslightlyRepublicanleaningmidtermelectioncycle.WearechangingourRothenberg
PoliticalReport/RollCallratingofNewJerseys3rdDistrictfrompureTossuptoTossup/Tilts
Republican.
YoucanreadmyfullanalysisoftheraceintheJuly8editionofTheRothenbergPolitical
Report($).
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FL judge who threw out congressional lines
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