You should string out your mortgage to maximize the interest
deduction You may have heard someone advise you not to prepay your mortgage because youd lose the interest deduction. Thats true, but youd also be saving on interest by paying off your mortgage over a shorter period of time. Given that the interest deduction only represents a portion of the interest itself, youd save more money by getting rid of the interest, even at the cost of losing the deduction. It is true that the mortgage deduction helps make mortgages cheaper than most other forms of debt, so it makes sense to pay off other debts first. However, if you dont have other debts, prepaying your mortgage may be a good option.
2. You should always minimize your tax withholding The theory behind this is sound why should the government be earning interest on your money until it pays your refund? However, the value of that theory is seriously diminished when interest rates are near zero, as they are now. The simple fact is that many people will simply whittle away a few extra dollars in their weekly paychecks, whereas they might accumulate a nice amount of savings in the form of a tax refund. The optimal strategy would be to minimize your tax withholding but use automated deposits into a high-interest savings account to achieve the same result while beginning to earn interest earlier. As a practical matter though, letting your withholding build up to a refund is a crude but effective savings method that wont cost you much in a low-interest-rate environment.
3. Deferring taxes saves you money Even though deferring taxes can mean earning money tax-free in a retirement account, it all evens out in the end when you pay taxes upon withdrawing from the account unless your tax rate changes. This can make deferring taxes a good deal if you are making a high income and expect to be in a lower tax bracket when you retire, but it can make more sense to pay your taxes upfront if you are young and expect to be in a higher tax bracket by the time you retire.
4. Its easy to minimize credit card costs with 0% offers One problem with this strategy is that opening and closing credit accounts can hurt your credit score. Another potential problem is that even while there is no interest for an introductory period, you may run into balance transfer charges. Focus on paying off your credit card balances rather than simply shuffling them around. The best myths often have some basis in truth, and all of the above ideas may work in certain situations. But when they get passed along as absolute rules, they enter the realm of myth and start to become dangerous.
Myth #1 You can have it all Reality Few of us mortals can simultaneously pay off debt, save for an emergency fund, purchase a home, maximize retirement accounts, never carry a credit card balance, pay for college, and still have something left over beyond rice and beans every day. At least in the short run, you have to prioritize and make hard choices. Fair enough. Myth #2 Get a good job and youll be set for life Reality Nobody has job security anymore, pensions are few and far between, and few people spend all their working years with the same employer, or even in the same industry. This seems even truer today than it was when this book came out in 1998. Myth #2 Stocks are Risky Reality In the long run, not really. In the long run, bonds and money markets are risky because after taxes and inflation, they offer no real return. This is among Clements most controversial statements, and I couldnt agree more, despite the fact that he published his book before both the tech crash of 2000 and the credit crunch of 2008. In fact, myth #3 is where I decided this was a book worth reading, as it agrees on this point and others quite closely with one of my absolute faves, Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth. Myth #4 You cant go wrong with IBM Reality This myth is short-hand for the idea that any one companys stock offers immunity from investing disaster and, despite the headline, Clements really focuses on Microsoft as the heralded blue-chip of the 1998 time-period. In reality, any single company can go horribly wrong, and most individual investors would do better to focus on sector-investing in the equity markets, rather than stock-picking. Myth #5 You can beat the market Reality We are all the market, so beating the market is both mathematically implausible for the majority of us, as well as empirically rare, and a red-herring of an investment goal. For me, this myth ranks as the biggest lie perpetrated on us by the Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex. The goal should not be to beat the market, but rather to be exposed to the market, to achieve market returns. Myth #6 Your investment will make 10 percent a year Reality Heres a bit of an anachronism from 25 Myths since few people in 2013 expect 10% returns from the stock market on a consistent basis. If Clements wrote this book in 2013 hed have to make the myth: Your investment will make 5 percent a year just to make it a plausible straw man. On the other hand, memories are short, and well have to forgive investors entering the field after 2009 for outlandish expectations. Dont look now, but the damn market just more than doubled in the last four years. Pretty soon folks will think thats the new normal. Double my money in just 4 years! Sweet! Myth #7 You cant go wrong with mutual funds Reality Sector mutual funds can be terribly undiversified, expenses can be outrageously high, some investment managers still sell load funds, and minimum investment sizes can keep people out of the market, to name just a few flaws of mutual funds, broadly understood. Myth #8 You can find the next Magellen Reality Again, an anachronism. People under 40 dont think of Peter Lynchs fund The first $billion mutual fund and easily the most famous mutual fund of the 1980s when they think of investment rock-stars. Legg Masons Bill Miller overtook that crown in the 2000s, and hedge fund managers largely replaced mutual fund managers as the sexy geniuses touted by the Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex. Soros, Robertson, Jones in the 1980s and 90s, Tepper, Ackman, Loeb, Cohen, Einhorn, Eisman, Paulsen in the 2000 and 2010s. The point, however, is that few of us can realistically pick those winners before they were rock stars. Once they are rock stars, youre either purchasing lagging returns (an error!), or you cant actually get into the fund (queldomage!) Myth #9 Index funds are guaranteed mediocrity Reality Index funds outperform most actively managed funds over the medium to long run, mostly due to the latters higher fees and higher portfolio churn. Myth #10 Nothings safer than money in the bank Reality Clements recommends money market funds, with check-writing capabilities, as a higher- yielding opportunity than savings in a bank. At this point in the interest-rate cycle (zero return either way!), and with the unfortunate experience of money market funds breaking the buck in 2008 without a government bailout, Im less inclined than Clements to point out the advantages of money market funds over money in a bank. But, whatever. Myth #11 If you need income, buy bonds Reality To quote Clements: Investors love bonds. Its what you would call a sado-masochistic relationship. Bonds suck investors in with their fat yields, then bludgeon them with inflation, taxes, defaults, early redemptions and more. Yet folks keep coming back for moreWhat do I think? I think bonds stink. The irony here is that I wholly agree with Clements despite two important situational facts: 1. I am a bond guy by training and fixed-income oriented in my investment outlook 2. At the time he published his book, bonds easily offered 6.5% US government-guaranteed yield, which any total- return-oriented equity investor would probably kill for today. Myth #12 Hedge your bet with hard assets Reality Clements points out that hard assets like real estate, precious metals, art, and collectibles should only reasonably return the rate of inflation over the medium and long run. Despite my arguing in favor of home ownership as a particularly advantageous hard asset investment, I agree with his expectations-setting of price appreciation when it comes to hard assets. Myth #13 You should own a balanced portfolio Reality In this context, Clements means balanced as a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Clements points out, rightly, that many individuals would benefit from a more equity-oriented mix, and the specific 60/40 traditional blend doesnt work for everyone. Fair enough. Although to pick a fight with him and myself at the same time: While 60/40 may not be the answer to everybodys needs, there are also much worse ways to allocate your investments. Any individual investor should probably deviate meaningfully from 60/40, but if you were to mandate an allocation that everybody has to follow, 60/40 isnt a terrible place to start. Its not right for me, for example, but it wouldnt completely screw me up either, as much as other potential allocations might. To pick another fight, only with Clements this time, hes overly proscriptive and enamored with zero coupon bonds for investors. I get where hes coming from, but I certainly wouldnt send any individual out to buy zero coupon bonds today. Myth #14 You need a broker Reality Discount/low-service/online brokerages may be just fine for the do-it-yourself generation, even more true now than it was when 25 Myths first came out. Clements wisely points out, and I concur, that a good investment advisor offers timely hand-holding when the shit inevitably hits the fan in your stock portfolio. Their value-added is to get you to do nothing, because you made a reasonable plan, and now you need to be tied to the mast, and not allowed to sell out your equities at the bottom. That is the true value of an investment advisor. Myth #15 Keep six months of emergency money Reality Few people can do this, and credit cards, home equity lines, or even non-retirement equity accounts may serve this purpose for many people and under many conditions. Myth #16 Debt is dangerous Reality Of course it is dangerous. But it may be better than the alternative of not using debt, such as never owning a car, never going to college, always renting your home, or keeping too much cash earning zero return. He points out the advantages available in stock margin accounts (too scary for me!) and home equity lines of credit, which I highly endorse under certain scenarios. Myth #17 Buy the biggest house possible Reality You can lose a lot of money buying a home as everyone re-learned, again, in 2008, because investing in housing is quite risky. Clements supplements this chapter with wise thoughts on housing as an inflation-hedge and as a form of forced savings, which influenced my post on the advantages of housing as an investment. Myth #18 You cant beat the mortgage tax deduction Reality Clements argues correctly that having a large mortgage for the deduction is not clever but asinine. You end up spending $1 to save 15 cents. Spend to save is such a large part of our advertising and consumption culture that Im not surprised the Financial Infotainment Industrial Complex has convinced so many of us of this wisdom, but still. Myth #19 Invest in your house Reality Houses can be huge money pits, in which we convince ourselves that spending money on the structure for consumption purposes may be mistakenly considered an investment. As Clements points out, the home improvement industry brags: you might recoup 95% of the cost of a minor kitchen remodeling, 91% of a bathroom addition, 83% of a family room addition, 77% of a bathroom remodeling, and 72% from adding on a deck. Using those numbers, in investment terms, you lose between 5% and 18% on the investment, which makes it a terrible investment indeed. Its fine as an act of consumption, of course, but a loser as an investment. The lesson: Youve got to separate the consumption and investment functions when spending money on your house. Myth #20 Trade up as soon as you can Reality Trading up in terms of house size or price as soon as you can can cost you somewhere between a lot to everything, as anyone with a pulse, watching the 2008 credit crunch, realizes. Myth #21 Protect against every disaster Reality Clements and I sing from the same hymnal here, in that many people purchase more insurance than needed. If it aint risk transfer, it aint insurance worth buying. (Apparently our mutual hymnal speaks in a terribly uneducated manner.) In addition, some insurance is optional at best, useless and expensive at worst. Myth #22 Life Insurance is a good investment Reality I could kiss Clements. Its like his chapter lines up perfectly with my previous blog postings on life insurance as a useful risk transfer but a terrible investment. Honestly, I wrote these things before reading his book. Myth #23 Invest in your kids name Reality Apparently this must have happened back in the 80s and 90s as a tax dodge. I never hear about anyone doing this nowadays. Maybe the parents I know are just poorer than the New York City-based parents Clements interacted with. Or maybe parents today learned too much from the 1980s, and Studio 54, and how a lifetime of parental investments can be snorted through your childs nose. Anyway, in case youre tempted, Clements doesnt recommend this. Myth #24 Max out your IRA every year Reality Clements wants you to know that retirement-account funds are semi-permanently locked up, they change the eventual taxable nature of your retirement income to capital gains, you might have tax hassles, and you still pay taxes upon death. I suppose hes right, but for most of us its still a worthy aspiration to max out our IRA. Its unlikely, but you might miss out on a Mitt Romney type situation if you dont max out your IRA especially a self-directed IRA and Roth IRAs have special powers on which Clements does not elaborate. So I mostly disagree with Clements on this myth. Lets move on. Myth #25 One day, kids, all of this will be yours Reality Estate planning takes a lot of work, and it is available to folks who invest a lot of time and some money in the project. He urges careful organizing, talking as openly as possible with heirs, and remaining alert to the opportunities for giving tax-free. Fair enough. Im not there in my life yet to have done much thinking about this, beyond paying an attorney to prepare a simple will.
MYTH 1: There's always a hot market somewhere. When U.S. markets began to blow up, you heard about "decoupling" and "the Chinese century." The idea is that Asia -- or Russia or Latin America -- can grow vigorously independent of the U.S. and Europe. Invest there and you'll offset losses at home. Instead, Chinese, Indian and Russian shares have crumbled. Net investment money flowing into emerging-market economies fell 50% in 2008, to $466 billion, and is forecast to sink to $165 billion in 2009.
Truth: In this age of globalization, economic downturns and bear markets observe no borders. MYTH 2: Real estate behaves differently from other investments. Call it a bubble instead of a boom if you like, but it was supposed to be "proof" that real estate returns don't strongly correlate with the returns of stocks and other financial investments. The message: Rental properties or real estate investment trusts can make money despite drops in Standard & Poor's 500-stock index or the Nasdaq. Wrong. REITs lost 38% in 2008 because the credit crunch and overly aggressive expansion plans hammered profits and dividends. REIT returns used to have little correlation with the stock market. Now they closely track it.
Truth: Real estate won't overcome other risks when credit problems are harming all investments. MYTH 3. Reliable dividend payers are safer than other stocks. Companies recognized as dividend "achievers" or "aristocrats" -- because they could be counted on to increase their payouts regularly -- used to perform more steadily than most stocks. That's because shareholders seeking income tended not to sell. But now shares of dividend achievers can be as volatile as the overall market. One reason: more mass trading of blue-chip stocks in baskets, a la exchange- traded and index funds. Another factor: Banks, insurance firms and real estate companies can no longer afford to pay high dividends. Truth: Companies aren't too proud to stop increasing dividends. If you want stable dividends, ignore the past and look for companies with lots of cash flow. MYTH 4. Foreign creditors can drain the U.S. Treasury overnight. Puny Treasury yields suggest that it's bad business for the rest of the world to lend so much money to the U.S. But think: What else would these investors do? And who has the power to impose this dramatic sell order? Nobody. Foreigners own $3.1 trillion of Treasury debt. Of that, $1.1 trillion is with private investors -- mainly pension funds, which cannot safely ignore a class of investment that is absolutely liquid and has never defaulted. Governments and institutional investors hold the rest. On occasion they have sold more U.S. debt than they have bought. But massive private buying has overwhelmed the modest pullbacks.
Truth: If what you want is super-safe bonds, the U.S. Treasury is the go-to place. MYTH 5. Gold is the best place to hide in a lousy economy. Gold is currently trading at more than $1,000, but it has bounced around a great deal during and after the economic meltdown. Its rise since the economy began to perk up is as much a reflection of speculation about higher interest rates and inflation than anything else. It is not a warning that the recovery in stocks, corporate bonds, some sectors of real estate, and other commodities is at risk. Gold is its own little world and doesn't count as a reliable economic indicator. Truth: Gold tends to rally in prosperous times, when you have inflation, easy credit and flush buyers (kind of reminds you of real estate). MYTH 6. Life insurance is not a good investment. This canard spread as 401(k)s and IRAs supplanted cash-value life insurance as Americans' most popular ways to build savings while deferring taxes. True, the investment side of an insurance policy has higher built-in expenses than mutual funds do. But two factors point to a revival of insurance as an investment. One is guaranteed-interest credits on cash values, which means that if you pay the premiums, you cannot lose money unless the insurance company fails. The other is the boom in life settlements. If you're older than 65, you can often sell the insurance contract to a third party for several times its cash value -- and pay taxes on the difference at low capital-gains rates. Truth: A good investment is one in which you put money away now and have more later. Checked your 401(k) lately? MYTH 7. The economic downturn dooms the dollar to irrelevance. No question, the U.S. is deep in debt and going deeper while the economy contracts. History teaches that when a country can't pay its bills, lags economically and cannot control inflation, its currency loses value. That's why currencies in Argentina, Iceland, Mexico and Russia have all crashed within recent memory. The dollar does swoon, and it's lost punch in places as unexpected as Brazil and India. But -- and here's the surprise -- as recession gripped the U.S., the dollar got stronger. For one thing, there aren't many alternatives. For another, some other currencies were temporarily inflated by oil and commodities speculation. Truth: The dollar has survived a tough test and remains the world's "reserve" currency. MYTH 8. Mass layoffs reward investors. In the 1990s, news of layoffs would boost a company's stock for several weeks. Stock traders lauded bosses for tightening their belts, so it was smart to buy or hold the shares. But mass firings no longer impress investors. Lately, firms as varied as Allstate, Boeing, Caterpillar, Dell, Macy's, Mattel and Starbucks have all announced enormous layoffs -- only to learn that, if anything, doing so spooks the market even more. For example, on the day in January when Allstate axed 1,000 of its 70,000 employees, its shares fell 21%. Truth: Don't buy a stock thinking that a layoff will help profits. More likely, trouble's brewing. MYTH 9. It's crucial to diversify a stock portfolio by investing style. Experts say a sound fund portfolio fills all "style boxes," starting with growth and value. Growth refers to companies with expanding sales and profits. Value describes stocks selling for less than the business is worth. In 1998 and 1999, growth stocks soared and value stocks stalled. Then, for a few years, value rose while growth got crushed. But since 2005, the differences have been melting away. In the current bear market, both styles have been disastrous, and it's hard even to classify stocks as growth or value anymore. Many former growth stocks, such as technology companies, are so cheap that they act like value shares. Banks and real estate, once lumped into value, are a mess. Truth: Pick mutual funds that are free to search for good prices on stocks, whatever their labels. MYTH 10. A near-perfect credit score will get you the best loan rate. Before the credit bust, if you could fog a mirror, you could get a mortgage. You know what happened next. But bankers still need to make a buck, so it sounds logical that if you can show a strong credit score, you'll win the best of deals on any kind of loan. Not so. Mortgage lenders prefer large down payments. Credit-card issuers are just as apt to reduce your credit line or raise your interest rate. And those 0% car loans? Often they last for only three years, which puts the payments so high you'll need to come up with more upfront cash anyway. Truth: Credit is going to be tough to get for a while no matter what. So don't obsess over every few points of your FICO score.