The document provides updates on political and security risks across different regions of the world from the weekly briefing dated July 28, 2014. In Africa, Boko Haram militants regained control of areas in northeastern Nigeria despite government efforts to fight the group. In the Americas, the US is considering a limited refugee program in Central America to address the immigration crisis involving children crossing the southern border. In other news, fighting intensified in Benghazi, Libya between government forces and militants.
Original Description:
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 28 July 2014).
The document provides updates on political and security risks across different regions of the world from the weekly briefing dated July 28, 2014. In Africa, Boko Haram militants regained control of areas in northeastern Nigeria despite government efforts to fight the group. In the Americas, the US is considering a limited refugee program in Central America to address the immigration crisis involving children crossing the southern border. In other news, fighting intensified in Benghazi, Libya between government forces and militants.
The document provides updates on political and security risks across different regions of the world from the weekly briefing dated July 28, 2014. In Africa, Boko Haram militants regained control of areas in northeastern Nigeria despite government efforts to fight the group. In the Americas, the US is considering a limited refugee program in Central America to address the immigration crisis involving children crossing the southern border. In other news, fighting intensified in Benghazi, Libya between government forces and militants.
Africa: Nigerian president renews pledge to fight Boko ara! as re"els regain ground# Asia and Pacific: $nited %tates to consider li!ited refugee progra!!e in &entral '!erica a!id i!!igration e!ergency# Americas: Joko (idodo officially declared winner of )ndonesia*s presidential election# Europe: +uropean $nion scales up econo!ic sanctions against ,ussia# Middle East: )nternational efforts to secure ceasefire "etween )srael and a!as continue as death toll tops 1-000# Polar regions: +$ energy co!!issioner warns of potential sanction on ,ussian 'rctic de.elop!ents# 'frica Nigerian president renews pledge to fight Boko aram as rebels regain ground On 21 July- Boko ara! conducted a raid on a Nigerian ar!ed forces "ase in the town of /a!"oa- the site of the !ilitant group*s head0uarters prior to last year*s Nigerian !ilitary offensi.e# 1he insurgent operation resulted in an esti!ated 42 casualties and caused the displace!ent of an additional 12-000 people- raising the total of displaced persons to appro3i!ately 220-000# 1he recent fighting in the /a!"oa area has also resulted in significant da!age to critical infrastructure- leading to a sustained disruption of the electrical supply to Borno %tate*s capital city- 4aiduguri# Boko ara! re"els fighting for an )sla!ic state in Nigeria continue to challenge the go.ern!ent- which is acting under a state of e!ergency !andate in affected regions# 5ollowing a !ilitary operation last year intended to disrupt the operational capacity of the group- Boko ara! now predo!inantly operate fro! the !ountainous "order regions near &a!eroon# owe.er- the recent withdrawal of go.ern!ent troops fro! the /a!"oa area of Borno %tate has generated a power .acuu!- allowing insurgents to return freely to the town of /a!"oa and its si3 neigh"ouring .illages- and the organisation are now in de facto control of appro3i!ately half of Borno %tate# 1hese de.elop!ents represent a nota"le step "ackwards in the ca!paign to !itigate the insurgent acti.ities of Boko ara!# Open Briefing | ! (hile the go.ern!ent appears to ha.e te!porarily lost ground in the northeastern region of Nigeria- official spokespeople for President 6oodluck Jonathan continue to pu"licly deny the re"el ad.ances# 1he Nigerian security ser.ices7 shortco!ings in addressing the threat fro! Boko ara! ha.e caused Jonathan to seek 81 "illion in e3ternal loans to i!pro.e !ilitary capa"ilities- in con9unction with calls for international assistance to counter the insurgent group# owe.er- the lack of tangi"le results produced "y current security strategies is resulting in !ounting pu"lic discontent towards the Nigerian go.ern!ent- and it appears increasingly likely that Boko ara! will continue to !ake progress towards desta"ilising 'frica7s largest econo!y should the current security policy re!ain unaltered# "ther de#elopments Air Algerie flight A$%1& crashed in Mali on !' (uly en route from "uagadougou) Burkina *aso) to Algiers+ %earch tea!s found the wreckage of the plane- which was carrying 11: passengers- near to the 4alian .illage of Boulikessi- around 20 kilo!etres fro! the "order of Burkina 5aso# 5rance- which has "een !ilitarily engaged in 4ali since 201;- dispatched a !ilitary unit to secure the site and conduct in.estigations# (hile scattered re"el groups in northern 4ali continue their fight against the go.ern!ent in Ba!ako- 5rench officials ha.e so far stressed that it was unlikely that re"el fighters in 4ali controlled weaponry capa"le of shooting down a co!!ercial airliner- and that the crash is !ore likely to ha.e occurred due to weather conditions# ,lashes intensified in Bengha-i on !. (uly) with do-ens killed and wounded as go#ernment forces) utilising aircraft and ground troops) tried to oust militants in /ibya0s eastern port city+ 1he situation in 1ripoli has si!ilarly intensified o.er the past week- with shelling on 24 July# 1he latest .iolence- which "egan 10 days ago- has already resulted in !ore than 20 deaths as post<re.olution =i"ya continues to struggle with political frag!entation "etween a fledgling go.ern!ent and a !ultitude of !ilitant organisations# /espite a recent deal to end the re"el "lockade of the Brega oil port- no progress has "een !ade on the reopening# 1he latest clashes ha.e disrupted production at i!portant oil fields- including +l< 5eel# "n !! (uly) opposing sides in the conflict in the ,entral African 1epublic 2,A13 signed a ceasefire to end months of sectarian fighting+ 5ollowing increasing pressure fro! regional !ediators- representati.es of the !a9ority 4usli! %>l>ka re"els signed a ceasefire agree!ent with se.eral &hristian factions in Bra??a.ille- the capital of the ,epu"lic of &ongo# (ith the failure of pre.ious ceasefire atte!pts- the co!ing days will "e critical in assessing the credi"ility of the ceasefire agree!ent# (ith the transitional go.ern!ent currently tasked with arranging elections for ne3t year- reconciliation will "e a key co!ponent to the peace process# (ith a large part of the 4usli! population ha.ing "een dri.en out of the capital- Bangui- and the western region towards the %>l>ka<controlled east- the country is effecti.ely in a state of partition#
Open Briefing | . "n the radar eightened security and police cordons in 4abon 5ari) 6ano) Nigeria) after an unidentified attacker launched an e3plosi.e de.ice at a church on 2@ July- killing at least fi.e people and in9uring at least eight !ore# Negotiators from 4outh 4udan remain in Ethiopia waiting for the rebel side0s delegation to start a new round of peace negotiations- which are currently stalling# ,ameroon is warning of an increased risk from Boko aram raids spilling o#er from Nigeria into its re!ote northern region# The 7N office in Burundi 2BN7B3 is due to present its report to the 7N 4ecurity ,ouncil on ;1 July# African delegations are preparing for the 748Africa summit) which begins in early August# '!ericas 7nited 4tates to consider limited refugee programme in ,entral America amid immigration emergency 5ollowing a !eeting with the leaders of onduras- 6uate!ala and +l %al.ador on 22 July- $% President Barack O"a!a e3pressed his interest in the creation of a li!ited refugee progra!!e in &entral '!erica# 4igration "etween these countries is not new- and has long "een a pro!inent issue on the !ultilateral agenda# owe.er- the recent spike in the nu!"er of !inors atte!pting to illegally cross the $% "order has pro!pted a !a9or in0uiry regarding recurring $% i!!igration e!ergencies# )t is esti!ated that A0-000 9u.enile !igrants will ha.e crossed the $% "order "y the end of the current fiscal year in Octo"er- with as !any as 4@-000 nationals fro! 4e3ico and &entral '!erica deported fro! the $nited %tates in 201; alone# ' refugee progra!!e in &entral '!erica would ena"le foreign citi?ens to apply for $% refugee status in their country of residencyB until now- i!!igrants fro! &entral '!erica and 4e3ico had to cross the $% "order "efore "eing a"le to apply for asylu! status# )n the past- the $nited %tates has set up refugee progra!!es in aiti- Cietna! and the for!er %o.iet $nion- "ut a progra!!e in &entral '!erica would "e the first of its kind for a country that is a"le to reach the $nited %tates "y land# )n addition- the O"a!a ad!inistration has re0uested a special "udget of 82 "illion to address the crisis of 9u.enile !igrants who are crossing the $% "order# 1he inflow of 9u.enile illegal i!!igrants fro! &entral '!erica and 4e3ico to the $nited %tates has steadily increased o.er recent years# %trong !edia co.erage of the recent i!!igration e!ergency has drawn the attention of the $% president away fro! issues in +urope and the 4iddle +ast and "ack to =atin '!erica# )n contrast with the consistent inflow of adult !igrants to the $nited %tates- child !igrants represent a new trend that has e!erged against the "ackdrop of rising le.els of po.erty and cri!e in &entral '!erica# )n this regard- onduras is the region*s poorest country- and also the !ost dangerous# 1he de.elop!ent of drug cartels in the region o.er the past decade has greatly eroded pu"lic institutions and the rule of law- pro!pting large nu!"ers of fa!ilies and children to seek refuge in the $nited %tates#
Open Briefing | ' O"a!a has referred to the latest i!!igration e!ergency as a Dhu!anitarian crisis* that re0uires a co!prehensi.e solution enco!passing political as well as econo!ic !easures# But the refugee progra!!e faces strong criticis! at ho!e fro! the ,epu"lican Party- which fears !ore la3 i!!igration restrictions and instead de!ands stronger "order controls and !ore syste!ic deportations# 1he $% ad!inistration is currently considering the esta"lish!ent of a pilot pro9ect for refugee application in onduras- which if esta"lished- could "e e3panded to 6uate!ala and +l %al.ador# )n the !eanti!e- o.er 42-000 children will "e deported "ack to their respecti.e countries# 5urther!ore- the go.ern!ent of 1e3as has co!!itted 1-000 e3tra National 6uard troops to its "order with 4e3ico in order to curtail !igration inflows# "ther de#elopments "n !9 (uly) :ene-uelan President Nicol;s Maduro was elected as the successor of ugo ,h;#e- to lead the 7nited 4ocialist Party of :ene-uela 2P47:3+ 1his was the first resolution to "e adopted "y the 2;@ P%$C delegates at the party*s third national congress- the first of its kind in the 4aduro era# )n his inaugural speech to the congress- the Cene?uelan president openly criticised the radical factions of the party for sowing dissent# 1he P%$C third national congress will end on 2A July# <n a public conference) ,osta 1ican President /uis 5uillermo 4ol=s welcomed the ,hinese sponsored canal pro>ect in Nicaragua+ 1he announce!ent ca!e after the &osta ,ican authorities re0uested an in< depth study of the en.iron!ental i!pact caused "y the construction of the canal "y its neigh"our Nicaragua# Nicaragua plans to 9oin the Pacific Ocean and the &ari""ean %ea with a canal of o.er 2@; !iles# 1he pro9ect- which will "e run "y a &hinese co!pany- includes two ports and an airport- a!ong other infrastructure- with the total cost of construction esti!ated at 840 "illion# Bra-il is seeking to bolster regional solidarity by connecting /atin America?s two largest trading blocs+ 1he Bra?ilian go.ern!ent proposed a trade agree!ent "etween the Pacific 'lliance and 4ercosur days ahead of the ne3t 4ercosur su!!it- which is to "e held on 2A July in Cene?uela*s capital- &aracas# +sta"lished in 2012- the Pacific 'lliance- co!posed of &hile- &olo!"ia- 4e3ico and Peru- represents a geopolitical alternati.e to the 4ercosur grouping consisting of 'rgentina- Bra?il- Paraguay- $ruguay and Cene?uela# 1he esta"lish!ent of a trade agree!ent "etween the two "locs could pa.e the way for further political and econo!ic cooperation# "n the radar ,olombian President (uan Manuel 4antos is to meet with his :ene-uelan counterpart) Nicol;s Maduro) on 1 'ugust# @isruption to Argentina?s shipping and cargo sectors should be anticipated on !A (uly due to a proposed 12<hour strike "y workers affiliated to 5e!pinra o.er pay ta3es# Tra#ellers flying to the 7nited 4tates should eBpect increased security measures to continue following the go.ern!ent*s warning of a credi"le terrorist threat to a.iation# Airport customs staff in Argentina are set to protest from .1 (uly to 1 August in de!and of increased wages#
Open Briefing | $ 'sia and Pacific (oko Cidodo officially declared winner of <ndonesia?s presidential election On 22 July- the )ndonesian 6eneral +lections &o!!ission declared Joko (idodo the winner of the presidential election# (idodo gained 2;E of the .ote- representing 8#4 !illion !ore .otes than his ri.al- Pra"owo %u"ianto# (idodo and his running !ate- Jusuf Falla- are due to "e sworn in on 20 Octo"er 2014# 1hey will ser.e a fi.e<year ter!# Prior to the release of the final results- "oth candidates had clai!ed .ictory in the election# 1he election was held on A July and followed parlia!entary elections on A 'pril 2014# (idodo is the for!er go.ernor of Jakarta and fro! !odest origins- while %u"ianto is fro! an elite "ackground and is a for!er general associated with the %uharto ad!inistration# /espite the release of the official results- %u"ianto has co!!itted to challenging the co!!ission*s decision# =ast week- he filed a legal challenge with the county*s constitutional court- citing .oting irregularities and possi"le fraud# Prior to the official release- he had urged the 6eneral +lections &o!!ission to delay the release of the results until a full in.estigation had taken place# is concerns were raised as )ndonesian authorities reported irregularities in +ast Ja.a- (est Ja.a and fro! o.erseas in 4alaysia# Ongoing in.estigations "y the )ndonesian +lection 4onitoring Body and local law enforce!ent led to the sacking of at least 10 election co!!ittee workers and the issue of !ore than 40 official warnings to those suspect of illegal .ote ta!pering# %u"ianto clai!s to ha.e su"!itted e.idence of election fraud fro! o.er 22-000 polling stations across the country# Ne.ertheless- gi.en the large !argin "y which (idodo was elected- e3perts "elie.e that it is unlikely that- e.en after a thorough in.estigation- the final results of the election will change# 5ollowing the announce!ent of the (idodo*s .ictory- !inority parties ha.e "egun indicating that they will likely !o.e into coalition with (idodo*s party# 'ccording to )ndonesian electoral laws- a party !ust win at least 22E of the popular .ote in legislati.e elections to no!inate a presidential candidate# )n last !onth*s legislati.e polls- no party earned the re0uisite 22E- and thus two coalitions for!ed# Nota"ly- the senior leadership of the 6olkar party- which had for!erly supported %u"ianto- e3pressed plans to change their party*s direction towards support of the go.ern!ent# Ne.ertheless- in a country where political coalitions are co!!only weak- )ndonesia*s new president will need to find a way to !aintain political !o!entu! o.er the co!ing fi.e years# "ther de#elopments :ietnam has condemned ,hina?s dredging pro>ect in the 4outh ,hina 4ea+ On 22 July- Cietna!ese foreign affairs !inistry spokesperson =e ai Binh clai!ed that &hina*s acti.ities near /ru!!ond )sland- part of the Paracel )slands- are illegal and in.alid# ,ecently- &hina has "egun dredging channels near the archipelago to i!pro.e access for supply "oats and fishing .essels# 1he state!ent "y the Cietna!ese spokes!an is not surprising- and follows se.eral !onths of tense "ilateral relations# )n 4ay 2014- anti< &hinese riots "roke out in Cietna!- leading to the deaths of se.eral &hinese nationals# 1he riots followed the place!ent of an oil rig in disputed waters in the %outh &hina %ea# 1wo weeks ago- &hina re!o.ed the rig fro! the disputed waters "ut indicated that the .essel*s e3ploration acti.ities were successful- and suggested that acti.ities relating to natural resource are likely to continue in the area#
Open Briefing | 9 A car bomb that detonated in southern Thailand killed two and wounded more than .% others+ 1he incident occurred on 22 July in the southern region of 1hailand in the Betong district of Gala# Gala is widely considered one of the safest cities in southern 1hailand# 1he last !a9or attack in Gala occurred in 200: when insurgents "o!"ed 22 "anks at the sa!e ti!e# )n addition to the attack on 22 July in Gala- two other attacks also occurred in Pattani and Narathiwat# )n Narathiwat- alleged insurgents detonated a roadside "o!" killing one ar!y para!ilitary ranger and wounding three others# 1he attack targeted a s0uad of twel.e para!ilitary rangers on foot patrol# ,hina?s 4upreme People?s Procuratorate has begun establishing a task force to identify corruption among ,hinese officials who ha#e fled o#erseas+ Hu Jinhui- director of the %upre!e People*s Procuratorate*s anti<corruption depart!ent- announced on 22 July that the purpose of the co!!ittee would "e to confiscate the illegal gains that corrupt officials ha.e transferred o.erseas# 1he esta"lish!ent of the task force follows the capture of !ore than ;20 fugiti.es since January 2014# )n his speech- Hu noted that the &hinese go.ern!ent intends to cooperate with the $nited %tates and &anada on intelligence sharing- in.estigation and e3tradition# &urrently- &hina has signed !ore than 100 "ilateral 9udicial cooperation agree!ents with A8 countries and regions# )n addition- &hina has also "egun strengthening security at "order areas in Gunnan and eilong9iang pro.inces# 1he creation of the task force is the latest de.elop!ent in a year<long anti<corruption push that has per!eated all le.els of &hinese politics# "n the radar ,hina?s People?s /iberation Army will conduct li#e8fire drills along the country?s eastern coast "eginning on 2A July# (apanese Prime Minister 4hin-D Abe will #isit MeBico) Trinidad and Tobago) ,olombia) ,hile and Bra-il in an 11<day tour of =atin '!erica this week# Pope *rancis will tra#el to 4outh 6orea on 14<18 'ugust- on the occasion of 'sia Gouth /ay# Employees of Biman Bangladesh Airlines threaten to strike on 9 August o.er .arious grie.ances- including a de!and for free !edical "enefits# <ndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will tra#el to the 7nited 4tates on an official state #isit in %epte!"er#
Open Briefing | & +urope European 7nion scales up economic sanctions against 1ussia On 22 July- +uropean foreign !inisters agreed that the +uropean &o!!ission and the "loc7s e3ternal affairs ar! should finalise work on tougher econo!ic !easures targeting specific sectors of the ,ussian econo!y# )n a !ore i!!ediate response to ,ussia*s recent i!plication in e.ents in eastern $kraine- the +uropean $nion e3panded its "lacklist of indi.iduals su"9ect to sanction on 22 July- targeting an additional 12 indi.iduals and 18 entities# 1hese latest sanctions target the ,ussian intelligence ser.ice and the self< proclai!ed independent $krainian repu"lics and their leaders in eastern $kraine# 1he new indi.iduals added to the list include 4ikhail /radko.- director of the ,ussian 5oreign )ntelligence %er.ice I%C,JB 'le3andr Bortniko.- director of the 5ederal %ecurity %er.ice I5%BJB ,a!?an Fadyro.- president of the ,epu"lic of &hechnyaB and the leaders of the self<proclai!ed /onetsk People*s ,epu"lic# +uropean a!"assadors also agreed to sanction !e!"ers of ,ussian President Cladi!ir Putin*s closer circle of supporters at a !eeting in Brussels on 24 July# 1hese indi.iduals will "e for!ally identified on 28 July# 1he hardening of sanctions is a reaction to the downing of 4alaysian 'irlines 5light 41@ in eastern $kraine K an area held "y pro<,ussian separatists# Before the downing of the airliner- +$ !e!"ers had struggled to achie.e a cohesi.e position on ,ussia following the anne3ation of &ri!ea in 4arch- a!id the ongoing territorial struggle "etween pro<,ussian re"els and the $krainian authorities in eastern $kraine# owe.er- in the after!ath of the 41@ crash- the +uropean $nion has "eco!e !ore cohesi.e in response to ,ussia*s alleged role in ar!ing pro<,ussian separatists in the region- and for ,ussia*s failure to facilitate a ro"ust in.estigation into the crash# )n this regard- pro<,ussian re"els are "elie.ed to "e in.ol.ed in ta!pering with e.idence- and the continued engage!ent of these groups has hindered the efforts of international tea!s to retrie.e the "odies of crash .icti!s# 1hese sanctions "y the +uropean $nion will co!ple!ent sanctions that the $nited %tates announced two days "efore the downing of the aircraft# owe.er- last week ,ussia reacted to the sanctions "y toughening its econo!ic !easures against $kraine "y "anning dairy i!ports# 'nalysts ha.e also warned that these latest sanctions !ay "e creating a rift "etween ,ussia and the (est that could "e hard to re.erse# 1his week- the +uropean $nion is e3pected to announce further econo!ic sanctions should re"els in eastern $kraine continue to o"struct an in.estigation into the crash of 41@- and further- should the Fre!lin fail to stop the flow of ar!s to the separatists across the "order# 1hese sanctions would pre.ent ,ussian "usinesses fro! accessing +$ capital !arkets- as well as defence and energy technologies# One suggested sanction is a prohi"ition on the raising of capital on +uropean !arkets "y ,ussian "anks with !ore than 20E state ownership# )n 201;- al!ost half the "onds issued "y ,ussian pu"lic financial institutions were sold on +uropean !arkets# 1hese sanctions are widely e3pected to "oost ,ussia*s "orrowing costs and under!ine pu"lic finances# 'nother possi"le sanction is an ar!s trade e!"argo targeting ,ussia*s entire defence sectorB although 5rance will continue to deli.er one of two 4istral helicopter carriers for ,ussia under a contract agree!ent dated fro! 2001# )t is highly likely that the increasing segregation of ,ussia fro! (estern !arkets will generate deep long<ter! political di.isions "etween the ,ussian 5ederation and the (est- which are likely to i!pact a plethora of !ultilateral initiati.es currently on the glo"al political agenda#
Open Briefing | E "ther de#elopments Arseniy Fatsenyuk resigned as the 7krainian prime minister on !' (uly+ Gatsenyuk cited the dissolution of the parlia!entary coalition and the "locking of go.ern!ent initiati.es as the reasons for his resignation# =ast week- se.eral parties withdrew fro! the !a9ority +uropean &hoice coalition- including the pro<+uropean $krainian /e!ocratic 'lliance for ,efor! I$/',J party and the 5atherland 6roup# 1he parlia!entary speaker- Oleksandr 1urchyno.- announced the for!al dissolution of the coalition go.ern!ent- and President Petro Poroshenko now has the power to announced fresh parlia!entary elections within the ne3t !onth# On 22 July- the $krainian ca"inet appointed /eputy Pri!e 4inister Colody!yr 6roys!an as acting pri!e !inister# "n !! (uly) Turkish prosecutors arrested 9& policemen and do-ens of senior police officers on suspicion of espionage and illegal wire8tapping+ 'uthorities accuse the officers of illegally ea.esdropping on top officials- including Pri!e 4inister ,ecep 1ayyip +rdoLan- as well as forging official docu!ents- fa"ricating e.idence and .iolating the secrecy of an in.estigation# 1he pu"lic prosecutor*s office announced that 112 arrest warrants had "een issued for these offences# )n an early !orning operation- police detained officers in raids in )stan"ul- 'nkara- )?!ir and /iyar"akir# 1hose detained include O!er Fose and Gurt 'tayun- the two for!er heads of )stan"ul*s anti<terror unit# "n !$ (uly) two anti8Putin acti#ists) 4ergei 7daltso# and /eonid 1a-#o--haye#) were found guilty of coordinating protests) which later turned #iolent) on the e#e of President :ladimir Putin?s inauguration for his third presidential term on & May !%1!+ 1he 4oscow court handed "oth $daltso. and ,a?.o??haye. 4#2<year prison sentences- though prosecutors had sought eight years# 1he indi.iduals were pro!inent protest leaders during the parlia!entary and presidential elections fro! 2011<12# 1he two acti.ists deny the charges- and their lawyers announced that an appeal would "e lodged at the +uropean &ourt of u!an ,ights# "n the radar Turkey to hold presidential elections on 10 'ugust# Norway remains on high alert o.er a threat of an i!!inent terrorist attack in the country# "n 9 August) Bulgarian President 1osen Ple#nelie# will dissol#e the National Assembly) after the Bulgarian parlia!ent appro.ed the resignation of the Bulgarian %ocialist Party ca"inet# *urther Pro8Palestine protests are likely in Paris) *rance) and elsewhere this week+ 4iddle +ast <nternational efforts to secure ceasefire between <srael and amas continue as death toll tops 1)%%% ' 12<hour hu!anitarian truce "etween )srael and a!as "egan on 08M00 local ti!e on 2: July# 1he )sraeli ca"inet !et on 2: July and accepted a $N re0uest for a 24<hour e3tensionB howe.er- this collapsed in the early hours of 2@ July# 1he hu!anitarian 7pause7 of the conflict was ai!ed at the relief of Palestinian ci.ilians- ena"ling the! to return to their ho!es for supplies and to e3tract the "odies of those killed in shelling# 4oreo.er- the truce ena"led international 9ournalists to safely enter so!e areas of 6a?a for the first ti!e since Operation Protecti.e +dge "egan on 8 July# 4any reports ha.e highlighted the !ass destruction of "order towns- with !any areas reduced to ru""le# Open Briefing | A $% %ecretary of %tate John Ferry led talks in Paris- 5rance- on 2: July- which atte!pted to secure ter!s for a per!anent ceasefire agree!ent# )srael- a!as and the Palestinian 'uthority were a"sent fro! the talks- which included representati.es fro! the $nited %tates- 1urkey- Natar and the +$# +ach party is seeking resolution for the crises as the death toll continues to rise- reaching 1-0;4 Palestinian casualties- 4; !e!"ers of the )srael /efence 5orce I)/5J and three )sraeli ci.ilians to date# 5rench foreign !inister =aurent 5a"ius stated in the !eetings final press conference that the international co!!unity would continue to push for an o"taina"le ceasefire "etween the two parties- negotiating ter!s that would !eet the security de!ands of )srael- while ensuring the socioecono!ic de.elop!ent of 6a?a# owe.er- difficulties are likely to re!ain in finding an accepta"le resolution# /espite the agreed e3tension- the )/5 i!plicitly stated they would continue to search for a!as tunnels- and would react to any percei.ed aggression fro! a!as during the truce# a!as later re9ected the ter!s of the truce e3tension- stating it failed to !eet their de!ands of ending the siege on 6a?a and re!o.ing )/5 troops fro! Palestinian territories# 's such- each side appears set to continue the deadlock- !eaning that negotiations for anything "eyond te!porary ceasefires are likely to "e difficult until either )srael decides Operation Protecti.e +dge has ser.ed its purpose or international opinion "eco!es too hostile to !ake it worth continuing# "ther de#elopments The <slamic 4tate of <raG and the /e#ant 2<4<43 destroyed a symbolic tomb in <raG0s second largest city) Mosul) on !' (uly+ 1he Na"i Gunus shrine- "elie.ed to "e the "urial site of the prophet Gunus or "i"lical Jonah- was rigged with e3plosi.es and destroyed in front of crowd of people# 1he shrine- a sy!"ol of &hristian and %hi7ite worship- was the latest of 42 cultural sy!"ols to "e destroyed "y )%)% following territorial gains in the )ra0*s northern pro.inces# 'lthough no one was in9ured in the attack- it is likely to send a powerful !essage to )ra07s &hristian and %hi7ite co!!unities dee!ed to "e in opposition to )%)%7s %alafist interpretation of %unni )sla!# 1he 7)sla!ification7 and i!position of a"solutist ideology is likely to continue in )%)%<controlled territories in the following weeks# The <slamic 4tate of <raG and the /e#ant 2<4<43 o#erran a military base in 1aGGa) northern 4yria) killing $% people on !$ (uly+ 'lthough unconfir!ed "y %yrian authorities- reports indicate that at least 20 soldiers were killed in the attack- !any of who! were "eheaded# Northern %yria re!ains a stronghold for )%)% which now controls !ost of the pro.ince- and the ,a00a "ase- the largest in northeast %yria- is a nota"ly strategic gain for the group# Ciolence has continued to escalate throughout the country following the re<election of President Bashar al<'ssad on 1: July# 1he escalation of .iolence suggests a stark intensification of the country7s ci.il war- with increasingly di.isi.e internal factions struggling to co!pete for political support and territorial control# Two security officials were killed in Egypt?s 4inai pro#ince on !$ (uly+ 1he officers were shot dead "y unidentified assailants# 1he attack ca!e after the arrest of 12 indi.iduals and the death of two !ilitants in 'rish- northern %inai- on 24 July# %inai re!ains the fore!ost source of do!estic insecurity within +gypt- with !any 9ihadist groups using its desert regions to launch attacks against go.ern!ent security forces# +gyptian President '"del 5attah el<%isi faces significant challenges in containing the !ilitant threat within +gypt- as well as a state of e!ergency along the %udanese "order- increased pressures fro! the =i"yan western "order areas and the )sraeli<Palestinian crisis to the east# Open Briefing | 1% "n the radar Eid Al8*itr to be celebrated marking the end of 1amadan on 28 July# 1e8trial of !9A Egyptian acti#ists to begin on ' August+ 'll defendants stand accused of attacking the central ca"inet "uilding and security forces in No.e!"er 2011# <raGi parliament to meet on $ August to discuss prime ministerial election+ ,lashes likely in the lead8up to Afghanistan?s <ndependence @ay on 1A 'ugust Polar ,egions E7 energy commissioner warns of potential sanction on 1ussian Arctic de#elopments On 2; July- the +$ energy co!!issioner 6Onther Oettinger stated that the +uropean $nion should not pro.ide ,ussia with technical assistance to de.elop 'rctic oil and gas fields should 4oscow continue to pro.e reluctant to facilitate i!pro.e!ents in the current situation in eastern $kraine# +$ !inisters last week raised the possi"ility of restricting ,ussia*s access to oil and gas technologies and critical e0uip!ent for oil and gas operations# %uch restrictions could "e e3tended to include tight control of fracking technology and restrictions on +$ financing for ,ussian energy pro9ects in the region# Oettinger*s state!ent was gi.en against the "ackdrop of an assertion "y 6er!an &hancellor 'ngela 4erkel that it was ti!e for +urope to i!ple!ent new sanctions against the ,ussian 5ederation# Pre.iously- the +$ had not e3pressed any specific intentions to target ,ussia*s physical energy suppliesB howe.er- Oettinger*s suggestions appear to affir! the position that the +$ will ha.e no reason to assist in the growth of ,ussia*s 'rtic energy infrastructure should a change in ,ussian foreign policy not "e o"ser.ed# ,ussia places great .alue on the potential for offshore oil and gas pro9ects in the 'rctic- "ut can only pursue the region*s energy resources with the assistance pro.ided "y +$ countries* !ore technologically< ad.anced oil and gas industries# %uch a sanction on ,ussia7s 'rctic oil and gas de.elop!ents would undou"tedly ha.e a nota"le negati.e i!pact on No.atek- ,ussia7s largest independent natural gas producer and the !ain de.eloper of li0uefied natural gas e3port in the 'rctic Ga!al peninsula- which has already seen one of its shareholders hit "y sanctions i!posed "y the $nited %tates a!id ,ussia*s anne3ation of &ri!ea# owe.er- the proposed sanction will likely "e difficult to i!pose due to the foreseea"le i!pact upon +$ !e!"er states that are hea.ily reliant on ,ussian gas supplies# 1o date- issues of 'rctic de.elop!ent ha.e re!ained co!parati.ely cooperati.eB howe.er- should Oettinger*s proposed sanctions gain any traction- !ultilateral efforts to e3plore this increasingly .alua"le region are likely to "e greatly i!peded in ser.ice of !ore i!!ediate geopolitical concerns# "ther de#elopments ,anada will make further in#estments in Pangnirtung arbour) Baffin <sland) throughout !%1'8!%1$+ 1he proposed go.ern!ent in.est!ent of 810: !illion will "e used for construction- !aintenance- repair and dredging pro9ects# 1he go.ern!ent has already in.ested o.er 840 !illion in the construction of Pangnirtung*s har"our on Baffin )sland- located in the &anadian 1erritory- Nuna.ut- which took place "etween 200A and 201;# 1he additional in.est!ent will address o.ercrowding within the har"our- whilst ena"ling further access for inshore co!!ercial fishery and adding to Pangnirtung*s !ariti!e transportation links with other co!!unities within the territory# Open Briefing | 11 1ussian go#ernment8owned oil company 1osneft has pulled out of purchasing part of the natural gas field in Point Thomson on Alaska0s North 4lope+ 1he co!pany decided against signing up to the pro9ect with +33on 4o"il- proposed in 201; as part of an agree!ent to e3pand their colla"oration in the 'rctic# ,osneft is currently facing sanctions i!posed "y the $nited %tates that appear to "e li!iting the co!pany*s a"ility to conduct "usiness outside of ,ussia# 1he 'laskan depart!ent of natural resources co!!issioner- Joe Balash- also suggested that ,osneft- despite its in.estor status- would ha.e "een su"9ected to an enhanced due diligence process- due to its position as a potential co!petitor- had it agreed to the 9oint .enture# "n the radar A meeting of high8le#el representati#es of the Arctic states will take place $8& August in Naryan< 4ar- ,ussia# Arctic ,ouncil ,onser#ation of Arctic *lora and *auna 2,A**3 working group will hold a board meeting in Nuna#ut) ,anada) on 22<2A 'ugust# The Alaska Arctic Policy ,ommission will hold its neBt meeting in Nome and 6ot-ebue) Alaska) 7nited 4tates) on 2:<2@ 'ugust# <nternational ,onference and EBhibition on Performance of 4hips and 4tructures in <ce will be held in Banff) ,anada) "etween 28<;1 July- and will address a nu!"er of topics- including na.al architecture- ice"reaking ships- !arine operations safety- risk and en.iron!ental protection#
Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www+bradburys+co+uk
Open Briefing is the world*s first ci.il society intelligence agency# (e produce actiona"le and predicti.e intelligence on defence- security and foreign policy !atters# (e tell you what has happened and what is likely to happen ne3t# 4ost i!portantly- we tell you why# (e do this so that "etter infor!ed citi?ens can !ore effecti.ely engage in peace and security de"ates and ci.il society organisations can !ake the right ad.ocacy choices# 1ogether- we can influence positi.e policy decisions "y our go.ern!ents# Open Briefing is a "old and a!"itious not<for<profit social enterprise# (e are a uni0ue colla"oration of intelligence- !ilitary- law enforce!ent and go.ern!ent professionals fro! around the world# &hallenge the status 0uo# 1ake intelligence into your own hands# www+openbriefing+org
Brian Sheppard v. Leon Beerman, As An Individual and in His Official Capacity As Justice of The Supreme Court of The State of New York, 94 F.3d 823, 2d Cir. (1996)