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DOI: 10.1177/223386591001300108
2010 13: 155 International Area Studies Review
Park Sang Nam
in Central Asia*
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its Impacts on Geopolitics

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International Area Review
Volume 13, Number 1, Spring 2010
Received: 21 Feb, 2010
Accepted: 10 Mar, 2010

China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global
Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia

Park Sang Nam

Hanshin University, Korea


Abstract

Recently, China has been expanding its tremendous power over the world politics and
especially into the Central Asian countries with its rapidly growing economic capacity.
The Chinese government has clear intentions to become a main player in regional
geopolitical game in Central Asia along with the USA and Russia. On the other hand, the
current Central Asian authoritarian rulers regard the expansion of Chinese order and
values much welcoming compared to the Western leadership. Then, it is possibly expected
that the region could go under the influence of China, both politically and economically.
Such progress would bring interest collision with the rest super powers and force Russia
and the USA to choose either competition or cooperation with China. After all, this might
result in a totally new environment in the region "physically": re-setting the current
borders. Since Central Asian states are characterized by multi-ethnic composition in their
populations, it is a possible scenario that the border can be re-arranged to accordance
with an agreement among the US-Russia-China triangle.

Key Words: China's emergence, Central Asia, geopolitics, US-Russia-China triangle,
border re-setting.


1. The Emergence of China and the International Order

In outlooking for the future of international relations both of the Eurasian
continent and the world, China has been emerging as the most important variable.
Recently, China has been expanding its tremendous power over the world thanks
to the rapid economic growth. Particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, it is
noted that China has successfully transformed from manufacturing industry-base

This paper was supported by the 2010 Research Grant of the Hanshin University.

Park Sang Nam, Ph.D. of Moscow National University, is current professor of Hanshin University. His fields of
interest are International Politics concerning Russia and the Central Asia and the CIS. His recent publications are
Elite and Power Structure of the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan (2009), Contemporary Central Asia
(2010). E-mail: allo96@yahoo.co.kr.
International Area Review 2010, Vol. 13(1)
156
country to the world top rich one with massive capital. Today, China actively
invests to the global finance markets: Central Asia, Australia, Central-South
Americas, and Africa. With the largest foreign exchange holdings over 2 trillion
dollars
1
and as the world biggest market, the competitiveness of China is
seemingly most strong in the world. If one examines deeply inside China, however,
China is facing a number of challenges on the domestic front. Among these, the
main pressing ones are: extremely large rich and poor gap, environmental
sustainability, balanced development, income equality, public health, social
stability, containment of corruption, human right, and etc.
2
They are all issues to
wait for urgent solutions. Despite all those challenges, nevertheless, overall
prospects for China is quite rose: Goldman Sachs has predicted that China will
overtake the US as the worlds largest economy in 2027.
3
It is only within 20 years
later.
In contrast to the China's striking emergence, the status of the USA has been
significantly getting weakened and the standard and model designed and
advocated by the USA are considerably losing their confidence. Such a retreat of
the USA is likely to remind of that the Great Britain had lethargically handed its
leadership status over to the USA - then new emerging world power in the late
19th century. Some affirm that China will soon replace the USA while others
provide rather pessimistic perspectives regarding China's role as a world hegemon
state due to its domestic problems. The latter assumes that it would be quite
difficult for China to keep such recent rapid economic growth further.
Martin Jacques, a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics'
Asia Research Center, affirmed that if China holds the world hegemon status there
would be born a totally-new-established international order compared to the one
the USA made.
4
The Chinese government and Chinese people attach importance
to community-oriented mind rather than individualism, to centralism rather than
liberalism, and to authoritarianism rather than democracy. When such Chinese
features are taken into account, the China-led new international order would be
established by reflecting those Chinese values rather following the Western values.
Jacques prospects that Beijing would overtake Washington and Yuan would
replace Dollar and Chinese language would take the English's status as the world
language.
5

Dani Rodrik, professor at the Harvard University, also agrees with Jacques's
perspective on the future China might bring to. He says, if the Chinese order
spreads out, the call for market economy and democracy would gradually
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia
157
disappear. Then, China would ask small and middle powers to enter the China-led
international system, where China demands the loyalty of those countries and does
not intervene their internal politics. This system closely resembles the past
'tributary system' existed in the Chinese history.
6
Moreover, Rodrik affirms that if
China becomes a global economic power, democracy and human right as the
international standard would lose their influences. Nevertheless, he points out that
the Chinese global order would show more generosity and respect for national
sovereignty of an individual state and tolerate the diversity of governmental forms
compared to one under the USA and the Western leadership. Furthermore, there
will be greater room for experimentation with different economic models.
7
On this
point, Jacques also mentions like this: Western hegemony will come to an end
and sees China continuing to prosper. Many other countries in Chinas orbit will
be pulled into Chinas way of doing things, turning away from the methods
advocated by a 'dying' West.
8

Let us listen to a local scholar's perspectives on China's emergence on the
global politics. Pang Zhongying, an international studies expert and professor of
international relations with China's universities of Tsinghua, Nakai and Renmin,
clearly presents Chinas role in global governance in his 2007 paper. He affirms
that Todays China wishes to play a role in global governance as a fully fledged
responsible state actor in the world.
9
For being a partner or a stakeholder, Pang
assesses the China's role in global governance or international system both as a
maintainer and reformer: while China maintains and world order and advocate the
UN reform to strengthen its unity and authority and to enhance its efficiency and
capacity to respond to global challenges, China as reformer is seeking to reform
the US's unilateralism and support multilateralism in the post-Cold War era.
10

Pang sees the current international order is dominated by the Western institutions
like IMF, World Bank and WTO and that China wants to speak their voices loudly
or collectively at least for its regional governance.
Despite such ostensible attitude of China discussed above, there are concerns
and expectations over how the expansion of the Chinese order could influence
over the international politics and economy after all. Therefore, it is quite clear
that the emergence of China and the China-led international order either positively
or negatively would bring vivid changes into the future international order.
Particularly the Chinese values which advocate authoritarianism and centralization
of authority seem very appealing to some dictators such as from the Central Asia
and Africa. For this reason the gripping of authoritarian states towards China could
International Area Review 2010, Vol. 13(1)
158
obtain considerable momentum since Central Asian political elites are eager to
seek ways to maintain their authoritarianism in status-quo. It is reasonable for
those authoritarian rulers to prefer the Chinese or Russian system rather than
USA's one even in the case they should provide cooperative attitudes to China and
accept the Chinese supremacy after all. By reflecting such worries, here's an issue
on Chinese roles on supporting some African countries. Leading Western opinions
are mixed with concerns and criticisms on Chinas role in Africa such as: Chinese
aid to Africa may do more harm than good. China's failure to match the
conditions placed on aid by other countries - including evidence of good
governance, respect for human rights and spending directed to alleviate poverty -
could set back progress toward democratic administrations.
11
On the contrary to
those negative perspectives on Chinese existence, it is somehow ironic that there
are lots of leaders and institutions in Africa that have expressed such an interest in
the Chinese model regarding economic development and its political leadership.
Dwelling on the question of good governance, as Chinas stakes in Africa increase,
Pang mentions that good governance in Africa will be also definitely in Chinas
interest but in a different way as the West pursues. Hu Jintao has already firmly
expressed on this issue: "China has never imposed its will or unequal practices on
other countries and will never do so in the future."
12
Even though it is necessary to
promote good governance in Africa, China may continue not to take the Western
ways.


2. Probability of Re-arrangement of the Borderline in Central Asia

It can be expected, therefore, such similar responses witnessed in Central Asia
just as seen in African cases. Indeed, some political and economic ties between
China and Central Asian states has been tightly bound through a couple of regional
cooperative organizations. China's strategic relationship with Central Asia,
especially, has grown expansively over the past decade, symbolized by both the
1996 founding of the "Shanghai Five," which in June 2001 became the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization and with the signing of the China-Russia Friendship
Treaty in July 2001. The events of September 11, 2001, and the U.S.-led war
against terrorism in Afghanistan and beyond have dramatically underscored the
strategic value of Central Asia to the West and present new challenges and
opportunities to Chinese security, political, and economic interests.
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia
159
Geostrategically enmeshed with Central Asia, China is likely to remain an integral
and increasingly influential player in the region.
13
As long as regional governance
is an indispensable part of global governance, according to Pang, Chinas
participation in regional processes is an indication of its integration into the
international system.
14

Central Asian elites' perceptions have changed. They no longer see the US in
the "uniploar moment" right after the Cold War. In contrast with America with its
financial crisis, they see China as a rising power with capital surplus and financial
muscle and a properly defined strategy towards the region and its problems. Thus,
China is buying up the region's resources and breaking into Soviet-era industries
that have been in a state of serious disrepair. China complicates Western aid
efforts by undertaking projects across the board. US companies do not build
railways or pipelines or highways and dams. They do not do energy infrastructure,
but they focus on the extractive sectors - oil, gas, minerals - and the Central Asians
take note of the West's exploitative instinct. Beyond oil, US companies are
shirking opportunities in the region. Except for oil, where investment money goes
in no matter what, there hasn't been much Western investment in recent years. To
sum up, the core difference is that to most Americans, Central Asia is still a region
of crisis, whereas to China it is a region of opportunity with which the fortunes of
China's "Go West" policy is closely intertwined in political, strategic and
economic terms.
15

It should be taken into account that, however, the shadow of Russia over
Central Asia has been strong and pervasive for several decades and Russia still
sees the region as the significant area for the Russia's strategic values. Therefore,
Russia would not simply close its eyes to the progress that Central Asia goes under
the influence of China.
On the side of the USA, as another key player in Central Asian geopolitics, the
scenario either Russia or China becomes the regional hegemon in Central Asia is
likely to mean the rapid retreat of USA in the Eurasian power game. If it would be
the case, the USA might lose its Eurasian defense frontline connected along
Europe-Turkey-Central Asia(Afghanistan)-India-Taiwan-South Korea-Japan. Here
is the very reason Barack Obama would not give up Afghanistan - nolens volens.
The regional challenge that the US encounters in Central Asia is twofold: One,
Russia's resurgence, and two, China's rise as a world power. The US has been so
far focusing on Russia, while carefully watching the implications of the
lengthening shadows of China. In the US understanding up until recently, a
International Area Review 2010, Vol. 13(1)
160
strategic alliance between Russia and China in Central Asia within the framework
of the SCO was a long way from materializing and there was scope to work on the
differing priorities of Russia and China within the SCO. Unsurprisingly, the US
strategy has been pursuing a differentiated approach toward China aimed at
creating a wedge between Russia and China, which would prove the nemesis of
the SCO. Washington's comfort level with China was attributable to several
factors. In the short term at least, the US pursued a careful policy to engage China
in the region and assuring that China's emergence didn't clash with US interests.
This indeed helped Washington to focus on the immediate task in hand, namely, to
roll back Russia's traditional stature in the region, which was standing right in the
way of the expansion of US influence there.
However, this state of play may be about to change - or the process may already
have begun - even as China's rapid expansion of influence in the region and its
deep access to the region's energy resources in particular are beginning to hurt
Western interests. A historic watershed is indeed approaching in the region's
transition by the end of this year when the 7,000-kilometer natural gas pipeline
leading all the way from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and
Kazakhstan and leading to China's Xinjiang becomes operational. China has also
taken an early lead in gaining access to Turkmenistan's Yolotan-Osman gas fields,
apart from its strident gains in energy cooperation with Kazakhstan and
Uzbekistan. To be sure, the West is rattled as its own prospects of gaining access
to the Caspian energy come under threat. Turkmenistan, in particular, is viewed as
a major source of gas for the European Union's proposed Trans-Caspian projects,
which the US has been promoting as a means to reduce Europe's energy
dependence on Russia. But the West has no effective answer to the growing
Chinese influence in Central Asia. Certainly, the US is hard-pressed to find
"counterweights" to challenge China's profile as an all-round stakeholder in the
region. Potential "counterweights" such as Turkey and Japan do not look
convincing either. The challenge the US faces in the region in countering China's
new clout is comparable to what it faces in Africa. Clearly, the US today has less
leverage to advance its interests than in the 1990s. The US continues to enjoy
enormous "soft power" in Central Asia, which probably no country other than
Russia can match. But China's presence is cutting into its leverage in advancing
US interests in the form of increasing American business involvement or
promoting democracy.
16

If China and the Chinese order could keep expanding its influence over Central
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia
161
Asia, what would be the probable choices that Russia and the USA take? One of
the possible options is 'fair division' across the Central Asia in the agreement
among the USA, Russia, and China. This could bring the possibility to re-set the
existing internal border of Central Asia by the dynamics of the power triangle.
There is another possible border-changing scenario which might be triggered
by the Central Asian internal factors. The Central Asian republics are multi-ethnic
countries and characterized by complicatedly divided clans, tribes, and regions.
Mismatch phenomena of ethnics-national border is very often witnessed in Central
Asia. For instance, the considerable portion of ethnically Tajik and Pushtun do not
reside within the currently set national border. Many Tajik people have been living
in the Uzbekistan-ruling Ferghana region and Pashtun were divided into
Afghanistan and Pakistan when the border of then English India was set in 1893.
17

The main reason triggering conflicts in the Ferghana region can be blamed on the
ethnic-border discordance since there are at least three ethnically different people
living and being ruled by the three different nation-states (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
and Tajikistan). Beyond that, the region shows traditional nomadic features like
strong attachment to one's own community. It is a pervasive case in Central Asia
that loyalty to one's individual clan, tribe, region is much stronger than one to his
state or ethnic.
18
By this very reason, there is a probability of the current borderline
could be easily modified in accordance with interests among tribes and regions.
Moreover, competition between traditional power elites and current rulers,
conflicts among elites regarding succession composition also could lead to internal
disputes in the region.
19

The mentioned above internal and external factors might turn Central Asia into
a region in dispute and raise the possibility to be emerged as a potential threat to
the world peace. Here is the urgent reason for the international community to pay
attention to and supports Central Asia.
The most desirable direction is that Central Asian republics themselves would
develop their democratic systems in order to solve the domestic problems in a
peaceful way. Also, the EU-type regional economic integration could result in
stabilization of the regional security. There are some conditions precedent,
however, such as alleviation of economic gaps among the republics and resolution
regarding Kazakh-Uzbek competition over the regional hegemony. Dispute over
water resources should find solutions by mutual consent among five Central Asian
republics. The international community including the world powers should make
effort to stability of Central Asia in the frame of multilateral cooperation.
International Area Review 2010, Vol. 13(1)
162
Lastly, there are other factors which are likely to influence the future of
Central Asia and they can be identified with opportunities and threats of the region.
This would help to find suitable ways for Korea to cooperate with Central Asia.
Opportunities of Central Asia in the social section are, first of all, 'young society'
in the composition of population. While aging of population in Russia, European
countries and China are on the rapid progress, the large percentage of young
population in Central Asia is the powerful asset for dreaming dynamic
development in the future. Labor force, vast investment to education, and
professionals training are also brightening coming days of Central Asia. However,
as of threats, rapidly expanding gap between rich and poor since capitalism/market
economy was applied has been pointed out as the main cause of social unrest.
Soaring oil price has once contributed to quantitative economic growth,
nevertheless, unemployment rate is getting higher and higher and future of
democracy appears not prospective due to strengthening phenomena of
authoritarian governments in Central Asia.
If Central Asia would properly overcome those challenges and maintain stable
and sustainable development, it is only a matter of time before this region restores
its glory as the melting pot of Silkroad in the past. With the vast network of roads
and railways, Central Asia would be as an emerging hub stretching all over the
Eurasian Continent. Furthermore, the region can enjoy the massive capital inflow
invested by some oil-rich Middle Eastern countries, China, and Russia. The
development of Central Asia would positively influence over the whole Eurasian
Continent since the common prosperity of the Eurasia would not be complete
without peace in Central Asia.


3. Korea and Central Asia

Nowaday, Central Asia bears strategic significance for Korea beyond compare
to South America, Africa, and Middle East. Korea has been concentrating its
diplomacy to four world powers - USA, Russia, China, and Japan - while
independent Eurasian diplomacy and the policy for the middle powers have been
left to be desired. Such super powers-centered diplomacy based on neorealism
allows only a few players in the game while the 'network diplomacy' based on
multilateral cooperation regards all participating states as main players. The latter,
therefore, is considered as a way to reinforce the international positions of small,
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia
163
middle powers. The new diplomatic orientation of Korea should recognize the
20

importance of the network diplomacy and apply it to its own foreign policy. In the
21st century, it is expected that such network diplomacy could be a main stream in
the international diplomacy with a gradual retreat of the current international order
controlled by a few super powers.
Central Asia is the most important partner for Korea in designing its new
Eurasian network diplomacy. It is a particularly significant strategy for Korea-
Central Asia to establish network cooperation and strengthen economic and
diplomatic autonomy of middle powers with preparing for the Chinese expansion.
There is a fundamental principle here for Korea to take into account: Korean
policy towards Central Asia should be conceptualized and formulated in a
dimension of absolute reciprocity, not of a battle for supremacy. Approaches and
attitudes like focusing on short-term profits by setting forth Korea's economic
superiority and benefitting only from energy resources may eventually result in
isolating Korea in the flow of the 21st multilateral cooperation in the Eurasian
continent. By this regards, Korea should learn back from the 'offensive and
defensive alliance' in the 7th century concluded between Goguryo and Central
Asia.


4. Conclusion

It is very striking to watch the emergence of China as a key player in
formulating the international order. Especially China has successfully launched
into the Central Asian countries with its rapidly growing economic capacity and
spreading out Chinese values. Based on such achievement, now, the Chinese
government overtly shows its intentions to become a influential stakeholder in the
regional geopolitical game in Central Asia and wants to share a reasonable quota
as the USA and Russia have dominated. For the side of rulers of Central Asia, the
expansion of Chinese order and values seem more than welcome since China does
not force them to strictly follow the Western standards - democracy, human rights,
political reforms, etc. - as the condition of investments or economic aid. Therefore,
the expansion of China's power in the region might result in either competition or
cooperation of the USA and Russia. At any case, this can bring out a totally new
environment in the region "physically": re-setting the current borders. It is a
probable that the border can be re-arranged by dynamics of the US-Russia-China
International Area Review 2010, Vol. 13(1)
164
triangle, putting forward an ostensible reason such as nation-border discordance
due to the multi-ethnic composition in Central Asian states.


Notes


1
2 4 .. 1 , , (2010-02-21).
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=101&oid=001&aid=0003132302 (
2010-03-17).
2
More specifically, during the second annual online chat of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, on 27, Feb. 2010, he
mentioned some domestic challenges currently China faces: the country's severe employment situation, fledgling
economic recovery, soaring housing prices, inflation, corruption, and a cross-Strait economic pact etc. For more
details, refer to Bracing for "most complicated" year, Premier web chat focuses on domestic challenges,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-02/27/c_13191054.htm ( 2010-03-16).
3
Adrian Michaels, China ruling: review, Telegraph (UK), (2009-07-11).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/5788080/When-China-Rules-the-World-by-Martin-
Jacques-review.html ( 2010-03-17).
4
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western
World, 2009.
5
ibid.
6
Dani Rodrick, Will China Rule the World?, Project-Syndicate,
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik39/English ( 2010-03-11).
7
2010. 1. 27 .
8
Martin Jacques, opt.
9
Pang Zhongying, Some Approaches to Boosting Chinas Pivotal Role in Tackling Global Challenges, FES
Briefing Paper, 6 May, 2007.
10
Ibid. p. 8.
11
Chris McGreal, Chinese aid to Africa may do more harm than good, warns Benn, Special Re-port on China,
The Guardian, 8 February 2007.
12
Hu Jintao, "Enhance China-Africa Unity and Cooperation To Build a Harmonious World", Speech at
University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa, 7 February 2007.
13
Chinas New Journey to the West: Chinas Emergence in Central Asia and Implications for U.S. Interests, CSIS.
14
Pang Zhongying, opt. p. 4.
15
M K Bhadrakumar, India plays catch-up in the great game,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KG18Df04.html( 2010-03-18)
16
M K Bhadrakumar, opt.
17
Pashtuns. Joshua Project.
http://www.joshuaproject.net/peopctry.php?rop3=107909&rog3=AF ( 2010-03-18); Pashtuns.
Encyclopdia Britannica ( 2010-03-18).
18
, , , 2010.
19
For details, refer to the chapter 2, 3 in , .


References

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World", Speech at University of Pretoria. Pretoria. South Africa. (7
February 2007).
China's Emergence as a Key Player in the Global Order and its impacts on Geopolitics in Central Asia
165

Jacques, Martin. When China Rules the World: the Rise of the Middle Kingdom
and the End of the Western World. Allen Lane, 2009.
Kynge, James. China Shakes the World: the Rise of the Hungry Nation. Phoenix,
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Laurenzo, Mauro De. African Perspectives on China. China Brief. American
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McGreal, Chris. Chinese aid to Africa may do more harm than good, warns
Benn, Special Report on China, The Guardian. (8 Feb. 2007).
Michaels, Adrian. China ruling: review, Telegraph (UK), 2009.
M K Bhadrakumar, India plays catch-up in the great game, Asia Time. (2009).
Pang, Zhongying. Some Approaches to Boosting Chinas Pivotal Role in Tackling
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Rodrick, Dani. Will China rule the World?, 2010. Roads to Prosperity, Project-
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, , , 2010.
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