Pakatan likely to lose Selangor if snap polls held, Pua warns

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DAP's Tony Pua says that if PAS stays bent on protecting Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, snap elections in
Selangor would be inevitable and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is likely to lose its grip on the state. -- file
picKUALA LUMPUR, July 31 -- If PAS stays bent on protecting Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, snap elections
in Selangor would be inevitable and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is likely to lose its grip on the country's
richest state, DAP's Tony Pua warned today.
In such a scenario, the Selangor federal lawmaker said, PAS would emerge the biggest loser of all
three PR parties.
Pua said should PAS's non-Malay vote decline by 30 per cent and the Malay vote by just five per
cent, the Islamist party, which now holds 15 seats in the 56-seat assembly, would find itself
completely wiped out from Selangor.
"PAS's insistence to support Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim will inevitably lead to a snap election which will
only cause PAS to lose most, if not all of their hard-won seats, and in all likelihood hand Selangor
back to Umno on a silver platter.
"We hope that our comrades in PAS will be able to fully come on board the spirit of the coalition, for
us to jointly deliver our Pakatan principles and promises to the rakyat of Selangor and prevent the
aspirations of the people from being snuffed out before it has a chance of being realised," he said in
a statement here.
PAS has been locked in a public standoff with its PR allies PKR and DAP over the bid to remove
Khalid as mentri besar, with several top party leaders insisting that the second-term mentri besar
has done no wrong and should be allowed to finish out his term.
Umno has since indicated that it may take PAS's side in the imbroglio, which means that should
Khalid's detractors choose to move a no-confidence motion in the state assembly, the House would
be split down the middle with no clear majorities.
"Under such circumstances, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim will likely have his request to hold snap elections
in Selangor consented by the Selangor Sultan," Pua said.
In a state-wide election, the Petaling Jaya
Utara MP calculated that all three PR
parties would incur significant losses
although PAS was likely suffer the worst.
He pointed out that MB crisis has already
resulted in a "massive loss of confidence"
for PR in Selangor.
"As evidenced by various independent
surveys and our own feedback on the ground, our voters and supporters are dismayed and even
outraged by our inability to be decisive in this issue," he said.
He pointed out that should both PKR and DAP suffer a three and 10 per cent drop in Malay and non-
Malay votes respectively, the parties will suffer a combined loss of seven seats out of 30 contested,
leaving PKR and DAP with only 10 and 13 seats respectively.
"However, even in the most optimistic scenario where there is inconceivably no drop in Malay
support for PAS, coupled with only a 15 per cent drop in non-Malay support, the party will lose
seven of the 15 seats won in the last General Election.
"Should non-Malay vote drop 25 per cent which is more than likely -- given the controversies
involving PAS preceding the election, then PAS will also lose Taman Templer, Hulu Kelang, Lembah
Jaya, Seri Serdang and Paya Jaras, leaving them with only three seats in the state assembly," he
warned.
He said PAS will be "completely wiped" out in Selangor if Malay votes decline by a mere five per
cent while non-Malay votes drop by 30 per cent.
"As anyone can see from the above scenarios, it will be very unlikely for Pakatan Rakyat -- if the
coalition still exists in the snap election -- to retain power in the state.
"The biggest winner will be UMNO, returning with up to 30 seats in the State Assembly," he said.
Collectively, PR's three member parties control the majority of the House with 44 seats -- 15 each for
DAP and PAS, and 14 for PKR.