The endgame

August 19, 2014

In my previous blog (the one to the right of this, on your display) I predicted
a draw (or tie), teko in Hebrew, in the last Hamas war, that will go to extra-
time, but this extra-time won't break the tie and there will be no choice but a
penalty shootout. I asked who will be chosen to kick and by whom.

It turns out that I was wrong in extending the analogy too far. Middle
Eastern politics does not have well-dened rules like FIFAs tie breakers. It
is obvious that this war is practically over and all the dances by
Netanyahus government and Hamas are intended to save face for the day
after.

Netanyahu has a number of potential stabbers (in the Israeli government)
who only wait for an occasion to do a Brutus+Cassius deed to old Bibi. He
has to watch his anks. The Hamasniks are also at each other throat,
worrying what will become of them. There are too many connections.
Egyptian Sisi and Palestinian Abbas are only providers, boundary
conditions, if you will.

If the situation were formulated mathematically we would clearly have a
complex nonlinear system. Such systems are known to produce chaotic
behavior. If I may borrow from Physics, above is a picture which can be
taken as an impression of the situation: a computer simulation of two-
dimensional turbulence (performed recently by Dr. O. Umurhan).

It is not so important to explain the details of the picture. The important fact
is that it will decay in time. All the characters will be caught in their last
maneuver and then then the daggers will be pulled out.