Confidence Intervals

Vocabulary
Point Estimate:
A single value of estimation from a sample used to represent a population parameter
Interval Estimate:
An interval or range of values used w/ a sample statistic to estimate the population proportion
Level of confidence:
!c! "# corresponds w/ the probability that the population parameter is contained within the interval
$a%imum error of estimate:
&reatest percentage subtracted from and added to the point estimate to form the confidence interval
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Confidence intervals
(()ind the critical values *c+
,+ *-. /+ *01 2+ *0. 3+ *00
,+/- ,+04 ,+431 /+1-
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C56)I7E6CE I68E9VAL: )59 P95P598I56:
)inding the point estimate for p ; the population proportion : p"hat:
p"hat < %/n
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E%ample ,
In a survey of ,./3 adults; /-= said that their favorite sport to watch is football+ )ind the point estimate
for the population proportion of >: adults who say their favorite sport to watch is football+
P"hat < /-=/,./3 < +/-.
? hat < +=/. @adds up to ,+..A
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E%ample /
In a survey of ,3=. adults from the >:; //, said that of all the presidents in our nationBs history; they
most admire Abraham Lincoln+ )ind a point estimate for the population proportion of adults who admire
Lincoln over all other >: presidents+
p"hat < //,/,3=. < +,1.
C"hat < +-1.
&uidelines for constructing confidence intervals for population proportions
,+identify % and n
/+find p"hat @%/nA
2+ is the sample large enoughD
p"hat n #< 1
C"hat n #< 1
3+ find critical value
!c!
1+ find error:
E < !c! sC rtE@p"hat ( C"hatA/nF
4+ find interval
p"hat G E H p H p"hat I E
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E%ample
LetBs construct a 01J confidence interval for the proportion of adults in the >: who say that their
favorite sport to watch is football+
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E%ample
LetBs construct a 0.J confidence interval for the proportion of adults who say that of all the presidents in
our nationBs history; they most admire Abraham Lincoln+
K5> 89KL
1. A survey of ,.., >: adults on whether air travel or car travel is safer resulted in 1-J
saying that airplanes were safer; 20J saying that car travel was safer; and 2J had no
opinion+ Construct a 00J confidence interval for the proportion of adults who thinM that
airplanes are the safer mode of transportation+
2. Pollsters are plagued by a variety of confounding blocMing devices+ In a survey of ,.4-
Americans; 4=2 stated that they had such blocMing devices on their phones+ >se these
statistics to build a 01J confidence interval estimate of the population proportion of all
Americans who have these devices+
3. P+ )+ Chang Meeps records of reservations and no"shows+ Nhen ,1. :aturday reservations are
randomly selected; it is found that =. of them were no"shows+ >sing a 0.J degree of
confidence; find a confidence interval for the population proportion of :aturday no"shows+
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SAMPLE SIZE for a confidence interval for a proporation
6< p"hat C"hat @!c! / EAO/
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E%ample
Insurance companies are becoming more concerned that increased use of cell phones while driving is
resulting in more car crashes; and they are considering implementing higher rates for drivers who use
such phones+ Ne want to estimate; with a margin of error of 2 percentage points; the percentage of
drivers who talM on phones while they are driving+ Assuming that we want 01J confidence in our results;
how many drivers must we surveyD
a. Assume that we have an estimate of the sample population based on a prior study that
showed that ,-J of drivers talM on the phone+
p"hat < +,-
C"hat < +-/
01 < ,+04
E< +.2
b. Assume we have no prior information+
You try it.
Pow many 8V households must 6ielsen survey to estimate the percentage that is tuned to 8he Late :how
with 7avid LettermanD Assume that you want 0.J confidence that your sample percentage has a margin
of two percentage points+ Also; assume that nothing is Mnown about the percentage of households tuned
into any late night 8V shows+
If it doesnBt give percentage; use +1; +1 for p"hat; C"hat
,40/
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Practice Problems"Confidence Intervals for a Proportion
1. Aflac Insurance Company wants to estimate the percentage of drivers who change C7s while driving+ A
random sample of -1. drivers results in 133 who change C7s while driving+
A. )ind the point estimate of the proportion of all drivers who change C7s while driving+
B. )ind a 0.J confidence interval estimate of the proportion of all drivers who change C7s while
driving
2. Nhen 1.. college students are randomly selected and surveyed; it is found that ,21 of them own Apple I"
Pads+
A. )ind the point estimate of the true proportion of all college students who own and Apple I"Pad+
B. )ind a 01J confidence interval for the true proportion of all college students who own an Apple I"Pad+
3. A reporter for Qyte maga*ine wants to conduct a survey to estimate the true proportion of all college
students who own a PC+ If she wants to be 01J confident that her results have a margin of error of 3
percentage points; then how many college students must be surveyedD
A. If we have an estimate of the sample proportion from a previous study which revealed a proportion of
/=J
B. Assume we donBt have any information suggesting a possible value for the sample proportion+
4. In doing marMet research for the )ord $otor Company; you find that a random sample of ,//. households
in the 7etroit area includes ,.13 in which a )ord is owned by one member of the household+ Qased on the
results; construct a 0-J confidence interval for the percentage of all households in which a vehicle is
owned+
5. A Prime 8ime Live report was based on consumer cheating at a grocery store+ 8he story showed that a
reporter found =.4 bo%es of Captain Crunch to be shortweighted+ 8he store had a total inventory of ,1/=
bo%es of Captain Crunch in the storage area+ Construct a 00J interval estimate of the percentage of all
Captain Crunch cereal bo%es that were shortweighted+ Qased on the result; do you agree with the reporterBs
assessment that the percentage was very highD
6. 8he :palding Corporation; maMer of golf eCuipment; wants to estimate the proportion of golfers who are
left"handed+ 8he company can use this information in planning for the number of right"handed and left"
handed sets of golf clubs to maMe+ Pow many golfers must be surveyed is we want 0-J confidence that the
sample proportion has a margin of error of /+1JD
7. 7isney Norld gives an aptitude test to Rob applicants and considers a multiple"choice test Cuestion to be
easy if at least -.J of the responses are correct+ A random sample of 41.2 responses to one particular
Cuestion includes -3J correct responses+ Construct the 00J confidence interval for the true percentage of
correct responses+ Is it liMely that this Cueston is really easyD ?>E:8I56: Nhat was the name of $icMey
$ouseBs dogD
8. A health study involves ,... randomly selected deaths; with 22, of them caused by heart disease+
A. >sing the sample data; construct a 00J confidence interval for the proportion of all deaths caused by
heart disease+
B. >se the sample data as a pilot study and find the sample si*e necessary to estimate the proportion of
all deaths caused by heart disease+ Assume that you want 0-J confidence that the estimate is in error
by no more than ,J+
Answers: ,A+ .+43. ,Q+ @+4,2; +44=A /A+ .+/=. Q+ @+/2,;+2.0A
2A+ 3=3 2Q+ 4., 3+ @+-3,; +--=A 1+ @+3/-; +301A 4+ /,=/
=+ @+-/-; +-1/A -A+ @+/02; +240A -Q+ ,/;.//
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C56)I7E6CE I68E9VAL: )59 8PE $EA6"Nhen S is T65N6
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E%+
A computer company wants to estimate the mean number of hours per weeM all adults use computers at
home+ In a random sample of /, adults; the mean length of time a computer was used at home was 1+2
hours+ )rom past studies; the company assumes that the population standard deviation; S; is .+0 hours
and that the population of times is normally distributed+ )ind the error of estimate with 01J confidence+
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E%+
8he >: $arine Corps is reviewing its orders for uniforms because it has a surplus of uniforms for
tall recruits and a shortage for shorter recruits+ Its review involves data for ==/ men between the ages of
,- and /3+ 8hat sample group has a mean height of 40+= inches+ A previous study shows that S </+-
inches+ >se this data to find the 01J confidence interval for the mean height of all men between the ages
of ,- and /3+
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&eneral &uidelines for find confidence intervals for the mean when S is Mnown+
,+
/+
2+
3+
$ore Problems
1. )rom a random sample of 24 days in a recent year; the closing stocM prices for Pasbro had a
mean of U,/+12+ Ne Mnow that S < U/+,.+ Construct a 0.J confidence interval for the
population mean+
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2. In 24 randomly selected seawater samples; the mean sodium chloride concentration was /2
cc/cubic meter+ Ne Mnow that S < 4+= cc/cubic meter+ )ind a 00J confidence interval for the
population mean+
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3. A sample of 43 police salaries in Leesburg nets a mean salary of U22;//-+ Ne Mnow that S <
U-==0+ Quild a 0/J confidence interval for the population mean+
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Nhat if S is >6T65ND
,+
/+
t"distribution:
((@Nilliam &ossettA
)ind critical values of t
,+ t01 n < ,1 /+ t0. n < // 2+ t00 n < /.
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E%ample , Kou randomly select /. mortgage institutions and determine the current mortgage
interest rate at each+ 8he sample mean rate is 4+02J with a samples standard deviation of .+3/J )ind
the 00J confidence interval for the population mean mortgage interest rate+ Assume the interest rates
are appro%imately normally distributed+
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E%ample / In a random sample of ,0 patients at Ninter ParMBs minor emergency department; the
mean waiting time @in minutesA before seeing a medical professional was 3= minutes with a standard
deviation of ,, minutes+ Assume the distribution is normal and build a confidence 01J confidence
interval for the population mean waiting time+
E%ample 2 A random sample of the number of sentences found in 2. maga*ine advertisements
is listed below+ >se this sample to find a point estimate for V+
0 ,3 ,, ,= ,/ 00 ,- ,2 ,/ 1 0 ,=
4 ,, ,= ,- /. 4 ,3 = ,, ,/ ,/ 1
,, ,- 4 3 ,2 ,4
>se this data to find the ma%imum error of estimate for the mean number ofsentences in a maga*ine
advertisement+ Construct a 01J confidence interval for the mean number of sentences in all maga*ine
advertisements+
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)I67I6& A :A$PLE :IE:
E%ample ,
An admissions director wants to estimate the mean age of all students enrolled at L:CC+ 8he estimate
must be within , year of the population mean+ Assume the population of ages is normally distributed+
7etermine the minimum reCuired samples si*e to construct a 0.J confidence interval for the population
mean+ Assume the population standard deviation is 2+/ years+
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E%ample /
Kou want to estimate the mean repair cost for dishwashers+ 8he estimate must be with U,. of the
population mean+ 7etermine the reCuired sample si*e to construct a 00J confidence interval for the
population mean+ Assume the population standard deviation is U//+1.+
+Confidence Intervals for the $ean P95QLE$:
()ind the ma%imum error of estimate for the mean for the given values of c; s; and n:
,+ c < .+0.; S < /+1; n < 24 /+ c < .+41; S < ,+1; n < 1.
((Construct the indicated confidence interval for the indicated confidence interval for the population
mean+
2+ c < +01; % < 2,+20; S < .+-; n < -/ 3+ c < +00; % < ,2+1; S < ,+1; n < ,..
(()ind confidence intervals+
1+ A random sample of 2/ gas grills has a mean price of U42.+0.+ Ne Mnow that
S < U14+=.+ )ind the 0.J and 01J confidence intervals for the population mean+ Nhich
interval is widerD
4+ Kou worM for a consumer advocate agency and want to find the mean repair cost of a
washing machine+ As part of your study; you randomly select 3. repair costs and find the mean to
be U,..+..+ Ne Mnow that S < ,=+1.+ Construct a 01J confidence
interval for the population mean+
=+ A cheese processing company wants to estimate the mean cholesterol content of all one"
ounce servings of cheese+ 8he estimate must be within .+1 mg of the population mean+ 7etermine the
minimum reCuired sample si*e to construct a 01J confidence interval for the population mean+ Ne
Mnow that S < /+- mg+
(()ind the ma%imum error of estimate for the mean for the given values of c; s; and n+
-+ c < .+01; s < 1; n < ,4 0+ c < .+00; s < 2; n < 4
((Construct the indicated confidence interval for the indicated confidence interval for the population
mean+
,.+ c < +01; % < ,2+3; s < .+-1; n < - ,,+ c < +00; % < ,3; s < /+.; n < ,.
,/+ A random sample of ,/ two"slice toasters found the mean price to be U4,+,/ and the
standard deviation was U/3+4/+ Assume the prices are normally distributed+ )ind a 01J
confidence interval for the population mean+
,2+ In a random sample of eight people with advanced degrees in biology; the mean monthly income
was U2=.1 and the standard deviation was U144+ Assume the monthly incomes are normally
distributed and construct a confidence interval at the 01J confidence level for the population mean
monthly income for people with advanced degrees in biology+
Answers
,+ .+4-1 /+ .+,0= 2+ @2,+/,=; 2,+142A
3+ @,2+,,3; ,2+--4A 1+ @4,3+3,; 43=+20A and @4,,+/1; 41.+11A 01J is wider+
4+ @03+1-; ,.1+3/A =+ ,/, -+ /+443 0+ 3+02-
,.+ @,/+4-0; ,3+,,,A,,+ @,,+031; ,4+.11A
,/+ @31+3-; =4+=4A ,2+ @2/2/; 3,=-A