BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY

An Evaluation of Mexicos
National Climate Plan
141ENVS-106B-1: Life on a Changing Planet

Gary Dreyzin
4/30/2014




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Introduction
We are living in a world where the actions of one country have a global impact in every
sense of the word. When a nation is looking at its own future, it is filled with many choices. Yet,
once it decides what to do, the earth has no choice. For a long time the people has chosen exploit
the planet, and we can see today how the earth has responded. Hurricanes, droughts, heatwaves,
and acid rain are just some of the severe consequences of our actions. Should we choose to
continue we can expect more challenging responses. Even if the intensity of the dangers in our
future is only a probability, it is irresponsible to gamble with so many lives at stake. It is
essential that individuals, communities, cities, countries, and continents commit to decisions that
deal with the changing climate. Societies must recognize how they will be impacted and decide
what to do about it. They need to write a climate action plan.
But deciding on a plan is not enough. It has to be a good plan. It is in this light I hope to
contribute to conversation by taking a look at Mexicos National Climate Action Plan. I will
begin with a short investigation into what I expect to see in a good plan and why. I will show that
there are two main principles needed for successful top down climate change management.
These principles are centered on the basic idea that Mexico should focus on short term
adaptation and long term mitigation techniques.
After setting up the framework of evaluation, I will examine the contents of Mexicos
National Climate Action Plan. Keeping in mind that Mexico writes in the action plan that due
to its guiding character for the first half century, this strategy does not define concrete actions or
particular responsibilities, (9). Because of this, the goal will be an evaluation based on principle,
not efficacy or feasibility. Does this plan pursue what is important? Will its actualizing resolve
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the conflicts? Using the criteria and standards set up, it will be clear that Mexico is taking many
of the right steps while envisioning its own future, but still has room to grow.

What makes a Climate Action Plan Good?
Before we can evaluate Mexicos Climate Action Plan, we need to set up a framework for
evaluation. It needs to be decided what matters, why it matters, and how it should be addressed.
From a very primitive level, we can agree that the purpose of any action plan is to resolve some
sort of conflict. If there were no conflict, it would be sufficient to maintain the status quo and the
proper action would be inaction. The problem, in this case, is climate change. Therefore we
would imagine that any climate action response plan must directly respond to the climate
problems that affect the society. From there it makes sense that part of the framework is
continuously learning and updating about the problem and its affects.
So how does climate change affect Mexico? In their own climate action plan they write
that climate change will impact their natural resources and provide more environmental, social,
and economic problems (13). We can divide the environmental conflict into two spheres: short
term and long term. There are those more immediate conflicts such as droughts, heat waves, and
high intensity hurricanes (10). These pose immediate risks and require short term adaptive
solutions that focus on maximizing human survival. Adaptation needs will rise often, and proper
adaptation is a continuous process (Fussel 267). Making long term projects that attempt to create
a large coping range are fruitless as the climate continues to change and its difficult to predict
how severe events may be ten years from now. A better approach is based on finding specific
vulnerabilities and addressing them through small steps. They start from experience in the past,
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making accurate future predictions, and building up response patterns (Fussel, 271). For
Mexico, this means we need active research into vulnerabilities and policy efforts aimed at
adaptation with short term coping ranges. These coping strategies will prove to be most fruitful if
they incorporate local interests (Eriksen et al, 6). It is the unity of national efforts with local
knowledge that can create the most effective adaptation mechanisms.
On the other hand, we need to recognize that continuous adaptation techniques are not
sustainable. In fact, we can only adapt so far (Sherwood, Huber). If we are to avoid a
continuously changing and physically challenging climate, we should focus efforts in minimizing
human contributions to climate change. One of the leadings factors is greenhouse gas emissions
(Rockstrom 473). In the plan itself Mexico takes responsibility for being the 12
th
largest carbon
dioxide emitter in 2011, constituting 1.4% of global emissions (13). This should be an area of
mitigation efforts. The question left is with what and how much is Mexico releasing CO2? Since
2004, the transport sector has been the sector with the most emissions followed closely by the
production of electricity and heat (OECD, 24). Together, they compromised 57% of Mexicos
emissions in 2010. A climate mitigation plan must respond to this by researching new
alternatives to private transport and energy generation. At the same time the country should
actively penalizing polluters. They need to research alternative ways to develop fuels and pursue
a mixed energy sector dependent on a variety of energy sources. This will increase profits, limit
physical challenges, and respond to growing energy demands (Williams, 5). While
manufacturing, construction, and residential emissions are not that large, it is essential that any
economic taxes on greenhouse emissions start now before the dependence on unsustainable
technology develops further.
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We now see an underlying framework of evaluation. Mexicos climate plan should focus
on adaptation in the short run through vulnerability based research and short term, flexible, and
local aware coping mechanisms. Mexico should also focus on long term mitigation by
researching and promoting a variety of energy producers and instituting pollute pay policies on
companies now.

Short Run Adaptation
Adaptation plays an important part in Mexicos National Climate Action Plan. It clearly
states that adaptation should be a central component in fighting climate change (13). Three of its
pillars of policy action are dedicated to adaptation (20). It certainly wants to prevent
environmental damage and preserve ecological equilibrium (17). Here we will investigate if
Mexico devotes adequate efforts and funds to understanding its vulnerabilities and does it intend
to enact temporary adaptive measures?
Vulnerability Based Research
Part of Mexicos 10/20/40 Vision involves giving the most vulnerable ecosystems
protection, attention, and capitol flow within the next ten years (22). Within 20 years they hope
to begin to reduce vulnerability through sustainable management practices (23). Theres no
doubt that they want to protect their growing population. How will they know what is
vulnerable? One important factor is that they intend to keep going vulnerability assessments of
the population (25). The government plans to play an active role in encouraging technological
research on assessing vulnerability and creating adaptation measures based on scientific findings
(29). The research itself will be conducted by the National Institute for Ecology and Climate
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Change with the assistance of public or private academic and research institutions (14). The
government organization wants to systemize and analyze the current information on adaptation,
and focus on understanding the occurrence of climate events like droughts and hurricanes (29).
The vulnerability assessment looked into the effects of floods, landslides, agricultural
droughts, temperature change, heat waves, and disease transmission on number of people and
number of municipalities (34). They found that at least half the municipalities and around 27
million inhabitants fell within areas of both high vulnerability and high risk of climate events
(35). However, the investigation does not end there. In addition to population, they examine the
vulnerability of housing, medical facilities, highways, ports, schools, airports, energy
infrastructure, and market places (37). With the continuation of this type of research, Mexico
will have and continue to have a strong understanding of where they are vulnerable to climate
change. The question that follows is how do we know where to act first?
Mexicos National Climate Action Plan appears to begin to answer that question as well.
They have a list of 12 guidelines for local assessment of adaptation plan ranging from attention
to the most vulnerable population to feasibility all the way to flexibility (42). These future
endeavors will be documented in national, state, and municipal risk atlases governed by the
General Climate Change Law (15). It seems as though the action plan not only started the
research, but plans to support a system that continues it as well.
What more should we hope to see? The plan admits that the work of finding more criteria
and assigning relevant weight to each criterion for the future (41). Assigning value to different
criteria is no cakewalk. Deciding what matters when it seems like half the country is in serious
risk is a challenge to the equity of the adaptation response. Even if we take it back a step, truly
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understanding the vulnerability requires a deep analysis. Which vulnerabilities should the
NIECC focus its energy on? How do they properly allocate funding to the different researchers?
While the intention to prioritize community vulnerability, the mechanism for evaluation does not
exist. Perhaps these questions are better answered by the NIECC and the answers purposefully
do not lie in the climate action plan. However, it is important to note the risk associated in
recognizing so many vulnerabilities and not providing a guide to prioritization in the action plan.
With so many challenges it is easy to become paralyzed.
Temporary and Local Adaptive Measures
` While the climate action plan is not intended to offer concrete steps for the next few
years, it does offer guidance when looking at types of adaptation strategies. In fact, it is a three
pronged approach. What we hope to see is changing plans for emergency events, easier national
mobility, and unity between national desires and local knowledge rather than major plans for
artificial infrastructure construction.
In Mexicos National Climate Action Plan we see a strong push to increase
communication systems, improve early warning and local evacuation plans, and maintain food
security during climate threats (38). The Mexican government also clearly shows desire for local
participation. The climate action plan encourages social participation and training, hopes to
create bodies of citizen watchdogs for observatories of forest fires, plagues, and other concerns
(40). They intend to create inter-municipal boards and councils to define the adaptation criteria
in local projects and get different communities to collaborate (38-39). These changes, if enacted,
could really help strengthen short term and local adaptive responses.
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On the other hand, there is a considerable effort for the development of long term
adaptive infrastructure. The roots of this effort are seen in Mexicos hope to promote planned
adaptation based on a preventative approach rather than reactive (42). While this drive comes
from a good place, the manifestation of many state projects aimed at creating artificial structures
will require very expensive budgets that may go to waste if the severity of the climate conflict is
worse than expected. Efforts to strengthen existing infrastructure against different climate
scenarios and incorporate climate change criteria into new infrastructure seem a bit premature
(39). In the future, once Mexico will have and understand its sustainable relationship with the
climate, it will be worth making major investments into these developments. Presently, during a
time period where we dont know how severe the climate change will be, the focus on adaptation
should be discovering vulnerabilities, learning about how severe the climate change is going to
be, and creating more gradual developments.
Pursuing a more gradual adaptation plan in the short term may seem like a poor choice.
However, many do argue that the predict then act; approach to disaster risk management can
undermine effectiveness because of unrealistic expectation (Heazle et al, 162). In fact, if Mexico
underestimates in its predictions, it will turn end up with a very reactive approach (Heazle et al,
164). Instead of big changes in infrastructure guidelines, Mexico should start off with less
expensive and smaller preparations.

Long Term Mitigation
The goal of mitigation is to reduce the severity of climate change. Through the emission
of less greenhouse gases, we can begin to take back any changes caused by our own actions. The
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long term vision of Mexicos 10/20/40 Vision hopes to reduce emissions by 30% in ten years,
decouple the economic growths dependence on fossil fuels in 20 years, and to only emit half of
what it did in 2000 in 40 years (22-23). This, along with their hope to use more clean energy
sources, leads to a very hopeful approach to mitigation. There is a lot to be hopeful for here
considering the fact that in 2010 52% of electricity was created by natural gas, 16% was from
oil, and 17.6% came from clean sources (OECD 112). However, we also need to critically
evaluate the action plan to understand what efforts will be made to reach those goals 40 years
from now. We hope to see strong efforts directed at research and development in alternative
energy sources to prepare the science coupled with gradual introduction to polluter pay
principles to prepare the public.
Research and Development Directed at Alternative Energy
The need to promote innovation and development has been recognized in Mexico before.
Since 2000 measures have been adopted for the development of science and technology (OECD
83). However, with a low budget and poor governance, these measures have not been very
successful (OECD 84). Its essential to check if the money is given to the best people, in the right
places, with the proper management, for a diverse set of purposes.
Mexicos National Climate Action Plan devotes several initiatives to accelerate clean
energy use. It expresses a desire to encourage power generation through more efficient and clean
technologies, use state-owned power companies as the role models in the change, and encourage
the private and state-owned sectors to participate and use renewable energies (49). It shows a
commitment to save energy by installing smart grids to reduce energy losses (49). The action
plan intends to promote many different forms of clean energy including wind power,
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photovoltaic systems, geothermal, solar thermal, hydroelectric, and nuclear energies (49). Yet, if
we look at the specifics for each technology we will see that this is merely an encouragement to
already existing efforts.
Looking at the goals of hydroelectric energy we see that the action plan specifically wants
to install new hydropower plants (49). This isnt particularly surprising as hydroelectric power
was already 77.8% of the electricity generated by renewable sources in 2010 (OECD, 25). On the
other hand if we look at nuclear energy, we see that the plan is to commit only if the program is
selected for development (49). Again, we are not surprised to find out that nuclear energy has
played a minimal impact and only accounted for 1% of electricity generated by renewable
sources in 2010 (OECD, 111). It makes sense to tread carefully in unchartered territory where no
infrastructure exists yet.
It seems like Mexico is making a genuine effort to succeed in the renewable energy field
by doing what it has been doing, but better. In sectors that it is comfortable such as geothermal
energy, Mexico does show a strong commitment to the technological development of the
mechanisms (49). The action plan is looking at mitigation techniques that have environmental,
social, and health benefits (44). It in fact plans to favor funding projects in technology
development that have to do with mitigation and adaptation (28). In fact, they guarantee in the
action plan to incorporate climate change criteria in developing bank guidelines that favor
projects centered on renewable and clean energy (28). They will be able to fund more projects in
places like the Institute of Electric Investigations where they made huge strides on the
development of the heat pump for geothermal energy (Gutierrez).
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The only thing Id like to see more of is international assistance. From 2005-2011 only
6% of the projects Mexico has done with the EIA were in the energy field (OECD). With the
10/20/40 Vision Mexico is on a very limited time scale and international assistance can be a
useful endeavor. Many other countries with more sophisticated technologies could want to help.
International organizations like the World Bank are sponsoring climate change research and
development in many places (Singh, 1). Yet, very little of the climate action plan is devoted to
getting international support.

Gradual Introduction of Polluter Pay Principles
Mexico has many subsidies that have the potential to produce harm to the environment
(OECD 69). They have a price smoothing mechanism that keeps petrol and diesel prices low
(OECD 70). In addition, they have some of the largest electricity subsidies that encourage
wasteful energy consumption (OECD 70). While there existed environmentally related taxes
that boosted GDP from 1995 to 2005, in the following years the opposite is true (OECD 65).
Any incentives to curb vehicle use and use public transportation have not been significant since
emissions by the transport industry have only increased in the past years (OECD 24). What we
hope to see in the climate action plan are motivations and plans to transform the environmental
taxes and slowly institute polluter pays principles.
Through the introduction of carbon taxes, people will be encouraged to take necessary
actions to use less (Nordhouse, 235). The most economical system is one where the refineries
pay the extra fees (238). Through the introduction of a gradual carbon tax people will be
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encouraged to use less energy and drive their cars less. Furthermore, alternative energy options
will be more appealing economically to electricity companies.
Looking at Mexicos National Climate Action Plan we see several efforts towards
rewarding environmentally friendly options. First, they intend to redefine current energy
subsidies, gradually bring prices of energy back to market value, and encourage the creation of
voluntary carbon markets (28).They encourage the development of safe, clean, and low-emission
public transit systems (51). In fact, Mexico plans to modify the regulatory and pricing framework
on mobility to foster sustainable reinvestment (51). However, nowhere in the plan are any hints
that would demonstrate a plan to institute a carbon tax.
Perhaps this is for the better. A carbon tax is very questionable and making a clear
commitment to it in the action plan could cause strong negative responses. After all, its likely
that a carbon tax will also be felt in the pockets of everyday citizens in Mexico. What the action
plan does instead is create the infrastructure that could make the carbon tax. It sets up a
framework of support for clean energies and the GCCL gives the federal government to enact
policies based on those principles (13). The IMCC, an organization composed of 13 different
Ministries, can formulate and implement national policies on mitigation (14). While the
government may have had the power to institute polluter pay principles before, now the Mexico
National Action Plan can give support to these decisions.
We can see that although Mexico has not explicitly endorsed these principles, it made the
mechanisms it needed to support them in the future. However, without any stated efforts in the
action plan, there are no guarantees or strong reasons to believe that this type of tax will take
effect.
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Conclusion
Does Mexico have a good national climate action plan? The 10/20/40 Vision is a truly
powerful objective for the future. In the action plan Mexico takes responsibility for its
contributions to climate change and reveals its long term commitment to adaptation and
mitigation techniques. It sets up effective mechanisms for vulnerability research and makes an
effort to improve short term adaptation techniques. Furthermore, the action plan takes its long
term mitigation goals seriously. Through more efforts at developing promising clean energy
sources like hydroelectric a geothermal energy. They also made steps towards an economic
restructuring to incorporate a carbon tax by creating political structures with the power to do so.
However, in order to reach the 10/20/40 Vision goals and reach a sustainable equilibrium
with the climate more needs to be done. Mexico should focus on making a just way of
prioritizing adaptation efforts to vulnerable locations. Mexico also should refocus its adaptation
procedures to make small changes that gradually build up adaptive resistance. They need to ask
for international assistance to speed up their alternative energy research and development and
move forward soon with a small carbon tax.
As a guideline for Mexico for the next half century, the national climate action plan
serves as a good statement of values and basic goals. It succeeds in creating a framework that
Mexico can work with as it tackles challenging environmental concerns. However, the national
climate action plan does not have the answers. It leaves the hardest work for the future but a
possible future.


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