December 16, 2013

1















TRENDS

EURO
GBP
YEN
GOLD
OIL


Central
Banks
Outlook

CURRENT
FED 0.25%
Outlook: Flat
ECB 0.25%
Outlook: Flat
BOJ 0.10%
Outlook: Flat.
BOE 0.50%
Outlook: Flat
2008
Monday, December 16, 2013 www.harvesttopworth.com - www.facebook.com/HarvestTopworth

DAILY MARKET BRIEF
US stocks posted slight gains after a cautious session on Friday as
bargain hunters snapped up attractively priced positions amid concerns
the Federal Reserve is moving closer to tapering its USD85 billion in
monthly bond purchases possibly as early as this week. .

The euro slumped against the dollar on Friday as expectations continued
to build that the Federal Reserve is ready to begin tapering its USD85
billion in monthly bond purchases, possibly this week, especially after US
wholesale pricing data met expectations.

The dollar fell against the yen on Friday despite growing expectations for
the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its USD85 billion monthly asset
purchasing program as early as this week.

Crude oil futures fell to a two week low on Friday, amid concerns over
rising US fuel inventories and as caution set in ahead of this week's
Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Gold futures rose for the first time in three days on Friday, as investors
returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses.
Product Pivot Strategy Stop Loss
Euro Sell below 1.3768 1.3820
Pound Sell below 1.6358 1.6410
Yen Buy above 102.68 102.30
Oil Buy above 96.10 95.50
Gold Sell below 1237 1243

DAILY TRADING SIGNALS
* Note: If the product price breaks the pivot, then adopt contra strategy.
December 16, 2013



2
DJIA
DJIA futures struck a high of 15,790 and a low of 15,714 but logged their worst week in nearly four
months on concern that the Federal Reserve could signal the start of a reduction in its stimulus
program at its policy setting meeting this week. Investors in US based funds pulled $6.51 billion out
of stock mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, representing the biggest weekly outflow this
year. Investors have been trying to gauge the timing of an expected winding down of the U.S.
central bank's bond buying stimulus, with many market participants expecting the Fed to announce
a tapering in March. Stronger economic data of late, however, has led some to shorten that
timeline to as soon as the end of this week's two day meeting.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 15698
RESISTANCES: 15788 15849 15902
SUPPORTS: 15657 15595 15544

S&P500
S&P 500 stuck at high of 1,782.60 and a low of 1,771.60 on Friday as bargain hunters snapped up
attractively priced positions amid concerns the Federal Reserve is moving closer to tapering its
USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases possibly as early as this week. The Federal Reserve will
hold a monetary policy meeting on Dec. 17-18, and surprisingly strong retail sales, consumer
sentiment, employment and other indicators have many betting the US central bank will announce
plans to trim its asset purchasing plan then or shortly afterwards, which watered down stock prices
in recent sessions to levels ripe for bottom fishing on Friday. Pockets of investors betting the Fed
will hold off until early 2014 bolstered prices somewhat.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 1766
RESISTANCES: 1769.20 1773.80 1788.40
SUPPORTS: 1762.40 1759.32 1754.80

EURO
The euro struck a high of 1.3769 and a low of 1.3708 on Friday as expectations continued to build
that the Federal Reserve is ready to begin tapering its USD85 billion in monthly bond purchases,
possibly this week, especially after US wholesale pricing data met expectations. Fed bond
purchases seek to spur recovery by depressing long term interest rates, weakening the dollar as
long as they remain in effect. Meanwhile in Europe, Eurostat reported that employment fell by 0.8%
in the euro area in the third quarter, in line with expectations. The euro saw some demand as
expectations for further monetary easing continued to wane after the European Central Bank left
monetary policy unchanged at its meeting this month following a surprise rate cut in November.
The euro zone is to release data on inflation, as well as reports on manufacturing and service
sector activity, while the ZEW index of German economic sentiment will be keenly awaited.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 1.3755
RESISTANCES: 1.3769 1.3792 1.3817
SUPPORTS: 1.3712 1.3692 1.3678
December 16, 2013



3
GBP
Pound sterling struck a high of 1.6359 and a low of 1.6262 on Friday, as heightened expectations
for a small reduction to the Federal Reserves stimulus program as soon as this week bolstered
dollar demand. The pounds losses were held in check after a recent series of upbeat economic
data reinforced the view that the economic recovery in the UK is gaining traction, fuelling hopes
that the Bank of England may raise interest rates ahead of other central banks. The BoE is to
publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting, while UK data on consumer prices, retail
sales and employment will also be in focus.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 1.6306
RESISTANCES: 1.6360 1.6392 1.6428
SUPPORTS: 1.6283 1.6258 1.6206

YEN
USD/JPY marked a high of 103.91 and a low of 102.98 on Friday despite growing expectations for
the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its USD85 billion monthly asset purchasing program as
early as this week. Bottom fishing sent the yen posting gains against the dollar on Friday after
hitting 5 year lows recently. The dollar hit highs against the yen not seen since October of 2008
recently on growing expectations or the Fed to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases, which
keep the dollar weak to spur recovery by driving down borrowing costs. Bargain hunters snapped
up nicely priced yen positions despite solid US wholesale pricing data. Investors interpreted the
data as another cue to prompt the Fed to begin tapering its USD85 billion a month asset purchase
program at its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting or in early 2014.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 102.80
RESISTANCES: 103.32 103.46 103.67
SUPPORTS: 102.60 102.36 102.10

OIL
Oil futures marked a high of 97.59 and a low of 96.24 on Friday amid concerns over rising US fuel
inventories and as caution set in ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. US crude,
was weighed by indications of falling demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline. The US Energy
Information Administration reported Wednesday that gasoline inventories increased by 6.7 million
barrels last week to hit the highest level since October 4. Libya didn't manage to reach an
agreement to restart oil exports even though the government had said it expected the blockade to
end. The port blockages, along with strikes by oil workers, civil servants, tribesmen and other
protesters at oilfields across the desert country, have cut vital oil exports to 110,000 barrels per day
from more than 1 million in July. Investors are also watching to see if a recent move by the United
States to expand a sanctions blacklist may block the implementation of a historic deal between Iran
and world powers on Tehran's controversial nuclear programme.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 96.65
RESISTANCES: 97.00 97.35 97.84
SUPPORTS: 96.08 95.42 94.83
December 16, 2013



4
GOLD

Gold in the spot market struck a high of 1238.65 and a low of 1220.45 on Friday as investors
returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses. Gold is down
approximately 27% this year, heading for the first annual loss in 13 years, as solid US economic
data underlined expectations the Fed will begin curbing stimulus. In this week ahead, investors will
be focusing on Wednesdays outcome of the Feds monthly policy meeting, and a press conference
with Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched. In the physical markets, buying was quiet as
consumers were hoping prices would drop further this week after the Fed meet. Demand in the
second half of this year has paled in comparison to the first half, when gold prices fell sharply over
a short period of time attracting buyers worldwide.

DAILY TECHNICAL RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS
CURRENT PRICE: 1234
RESISTANCES: 1237.60 1244.46 1251.43
SUPPORTS: 1226.00 1220.20 1216.90


IMPORTANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (w.r.t. Forecast & Previous)

EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 47.1 Forecast: 49.1 Previous: 48.4)
German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 1:30PM Forecast: 53.1 Previous: 52.7)
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 2:00PM Forecast: 51.9 Previous: 51.6)
Flash Services PMI (Actual: 2:00PM Forecast: 51.5 Previous: 51.2)
ECB President Draghi Speaks (Actual: 7:00PM)

USD
Empire State Manufacturing Index (Actual: 6:30PM Forecast: 4.9 Previous: -2.2)
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q (Actual: 6:30PM Forecast: 2.9% Previous: 1.9%)
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Actual: 6:30PM Forecast: 54.9 Previous: 54.7)
TIC Long-Term Purchases (Actual: 6:30PM Forecast: 31.4B Previous: 25.5B)
Capacity Utilization Rate (Actual: 7:15PM Forecast: 78.5% Previous: 78.1%)
Industrial Production m/m (Actual: 7:15PM Forecast: 0.6% Previous: -0.1%)





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