Tunisia: Country

Analysis
Understanding Emerging Markets 1
project






Group Members:

Nishanth M V DM15235
Soundarya J DM15254
Lakshmikshatriya DM15268
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Contents
i. Introduction..1
ii. History...5
iii. Demographics..7
iv. Politics and Governance..12
v. Culture ...15
vi. The Economy...... ..20
vii. Doing Business in Tunisia..28
viii. SWOT Analysis.........31
ix. Conclusion..32
x. References.....33

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1. Introduction
Tunisia is in the northern part of Africa, bordered by Algeria on its west, Libya on
the south and Mediterranean Sea on the north and east. Sahara desert lies at the
south of the country. The country is 165000 sq. kms in area and the capital of the
country is Tunis. In their time, the Romans, Arabs, Ottoman Turks and French
recognized its strategic significance, making it a hub for control over the region. It
served as a shipping route for trade related activities.




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National Flag
The first flag of Tunisia has horizontal blue, green and red stripes, referring to the
Ottoman period in the country. Later the Tunisian flag was changed in 1959.



The red color in the flag represents blood of the martyrs killed when Turkey
conquered Tunisia way back in the 16th century.
The white colored circle represents Sun.
The Red Crescent and the five pointed star are the symbols that are widely used
across many Islamic countries and this refers to the Ottoman rule. The crescent
is believed to denote good luck.
Coat of Arms

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The coat of arms of Tunisia has three sections,
Ship- A symbol of freedom
Balance- A symbol of justice
A lion with a sword- A symbol of order
The emblem of the flag of Tunisia is seen above the shield and below the ship, the
national motto is written in Arabic which means- Freedom, Order and Justice.











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2. History
Tunisia was ruled by Roman rulers until invasion by European tribes but Muslims
took over the country in the 7
th
century and in then later it was made a part of the
Ottoman Empire, otherwise called the Turkish Empire. It remained under the
control of Turkey from 1570. Post 1881, the country was made a French
protectorate. Tunisia gained independence from the protectorate in 1956 under the
leadership of Habib Ali Bourguiba and in 1957, it was declared a Republic. In 1959,
Tunisia established a constitution that described the powers of the president, roles
of military. The constitution was derived from French. Tunisia still follows the same
constitution.
Post-independence, the history of the Tunisia can be described in two eras
Bourguiba era
The political party under Bourguiba was the Neo Destour party and he was made
the President after the independence. Bourguiba insisted on anti-Islamic
fundamentals and he placed strong emphasis on economic and social development
concentrating on empowerment of women, free and compulsory education for all,
much different from the other neighboring Arab countries. Neo Destour party was
the only party in the country and there was no opposition. Bourguiba was named
the President for life as there wasnt any opposition for his party. But later in 1981,
the government legalized opposition parties to run for office.
Ben Ali
Ben Ali became the President of Tunisia in 1987, after Bourguiba was declared
medical unfit. Ben Ali introduced changes in the constitution where the President
cannot serve more than three five-year terms. The name of the ruling party was
changed to Democratic Constitutional Party. Though the country grew economically
under his leadership, his regime was considered one of the most repressing regimes
and the country suffered from unemployment. In December 2010, there was a mass
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protest in the country against unemployment and corruption and it was called the
Tunisian revolution. A state of emergency was declared by Ben Ali. After 23
years in power, he was forced to step down on January 14, 2011. In June, Ben Ali
and his wife were found guilty in corruption and sentenced to 35 years in prison.
The first election since independence was held on Oct 2011 and Hamadi Jbeli from
the Islamist Ennahda party, was named prime minister and Moncef Marzouki
became the President. Unemployment increased under the new government, the
economy didnt grow and Islamic extremism spread. The ultraconservative Muslim
group called Salafis burned down anything they considered sacrilegious. Ennahda
party was accused of overlooking the violence by the Salafis. The violence continued
in early 2013, the leader of opposition, Chokri Belaid who had been critical of the
Islamists was assassinated and several protesters marched in Tunis after his death,
protesting the government its religious motives. Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali
resigned. Interior Minister Ali Larayedh took over as interim prime minister and he
formed a government. Mohamed Brahmi, the head of the opposition Peoples Party,
was assassinated in July 2013. The government blamed a militant group linked to
al-Qaeda was responsible for the assassination and the opposition blamed the
government for allowing Islamic extremists to operate a country.


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3. Demographics


The population of the country has been increasing and the population growth rate is
0.964%. The population of the country in 2012 is 10.7 million. The birth rate is
17.28 births/ 1000 population. The total median age in the population is 30.5 years.
Tunis, the capital of Tunisia holds the major population of the country, 759000. The
life expectancy years of men in Tunisia is 73 years and is 77 years for women.

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When comparing Tunisia with the other Arab countries, the median age is high
while for nations such as Palestine and Yemen, it is just 18 years. The high median
age is attributed to the declining birth rates in the country, which is because of the
decreasing fertility rates.
From the above figure, we can see that the population in the age group 0-14 has
seen a tremendous change from what it was in 1965 and what it was in 1990, when
the median age was low. Now it is pushed to the intermediates and in 2010, we see
a large percentage in the age group 25-24 and in the estimated population for 2025,
a large percentage of the population seems to be in the age group 35-44 which would
push Tunisia to a mature population and the median age would rise.
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Employment to population ratio



The above graph talks about the employment to population ratio which actually
measures the proportion of the population that is employed. The ratio has been 60
on an average and has not moved beyond that, unemployment is still a major
concern for the country.







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Ethnic groups

98% of the population are Arab Berbers and they are the inhabitants of North
Africa.

Religion


Ethnic groups
Arab European Jewish & Others
Religion
Muslim Christianity Others
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Islam is obviously the most commonly followed religion and accounts to 98% of the
population following it. Other minor religions are Christianity and Jewish.
Languages
Arabic is the commonly spoken language, French is also spoken in some parts of the
country.
Literacy

74% of the population are literate and when looking at the statistics by gender,
83.4% of men are literates and 65.3% of females are literates. The literacy rate
increased greatly after the independence because of the policies introduced by
Bourguiba. But the literacy in Arabic is very high at 90%.





74%
26%
Literacy
Literates Illiterates
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4. Politics and Governance
Structure of Government
Tunisia is a constitutional republic which has an executive president, a
legislature and judiciary. The military is neutral and does not play any role in
national politics.

Executive branch
In Tunisia, the term of President is five years. He appoints a Prime Minister
and cabinet, who play a strong role in the execution of policy. Regional governors,
local administrators, mayors and municipal councils also are appointed by the
central government.

Legislative branch
The lower house of the bicameral Parliament is the Chamber of Deputies of
Tunisia , which has 214 seats. Members are elected by popular vote to serve five-
year terms. At least 25% of the seats in the House of Deputies are reserved for the
opposition. More than 27% of the members of the Chamber of Deputies are women.
The Lower House plays a significant role as an arena for debate on national policy.
It holds representatives form 6 parties and hence is a hot platform for discussions of
national interest. Opposition members can vote against bills or abstain. Because of
the comfortable majority enjoyed by the governing party, bills usually pass with
only minor changes as in any democracy.
The Chamber of Advisors is the upper house, which includes 112 members
including representatives of governorates (provinces), professional organizations
and national figures. 41 members are appointed by the Head of state while the the
rest are elected by their peers. About 15% of the members of the Upper house are
women.

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Judicial branch
The Tunisian legal system is based on French civil law system and Islamic
law. Some judicial review of legislative acts in the Supreme Court in joint session.
Judiciary of the country is independent and the judicial council is chaired by the
head of state.

The 2011 presidential transition
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's departure in January 2011, Mohamed
Ghannouchi and Fouad Mebazaa served terms as acting president. On December
12, 2011, Moncef Marzouki was elected as the interim president of Tunisia by
the Constituent Assembly of Tunisia .

Politics
Tunisia function with a framework of a democratic constitutional republic.
President serves as head of state, Prime Minister as head of government a
bicameral legislature and a court system influenced by French civil law. Between
1956 and 2011, Tunisia operated as a de facto single party system, with politics
dominated by the secular Constitutional Democratic Rally(RCD) under former
Presidents Habib Bourgiba and then Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. In 2011 a national
uprising led to the ouster of the President and the dismantling of the RCD, giving
way for a multiparty democracy. Tunisia is a member of the Arab League, the
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the African Union. It maintains close
relations with European Union and especially France. They entered an Association
Agreement in 1995 with the EU. Tunisias favorable relations with the European
Union is showed by the following years of successful economic cooperation in the
private sector and infrastructure modernization.

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Political parties and issues
Tunisia has reformed its political system several times, abolishing life-term
presidencies and opened up the parliament to opposition parties since 1987. There
has been an increase in number of new political parties and associations since the
beginning of Ben Ali's presidency in 1987. At present there are 8 recognized
national parties, 6 of which hold national legislative seats. Ben Ali's was
representing a party known as the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD). RCD
won clear majorities in local, regional, and national elections. Although RCD was
renamed as the Socialist Destourian Party during President Bourguibas days, its
policies were still considered to be largely secular and conservative. However, the
Tunisian Revolution in 2011 removed the party from power after a long term in
power.

Politics and Society
Women's equality
Women hold 23% of the seats In the Chamber of Deputies women hold 23% of the
seats, outpacing the percentage of women serving in the U.S. Congress, stands at
17% in the 111th Congress. More than 1/5 th of the seats in both chambers of
parliament are held by women. Considering the region in which the country is
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located, it is exceptionally high. Polygamy is forbidden by law in Tunisia which is
the only Arab country to do so. This is part of a provision in the countrys Code of
Personal Status which was introduced by President Bourguiba in 1956.

Civil unrest
Tunisias slow pace in improving democratic practices was recently brought to light
by the government which suppressed violent Islamist extremists, who held a pro-
western foreign policy. Some restriction of basic human rights and obstruction of
human rights organizations have been documented by groups. The government was
severely criticized in 2008 for handling of social unrest in the town of Gafsa. But in
general, it has been praised for its efforts in responding constructively to the events.
Trade unionists was initially arrested for protesting working conditions and were
released on the order of President Ben Ali and officially pardoned in October
2009.Amnesty International and various other organizations criticised the Levels of
democracy and freedom of expression in the country














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5. Culture
The culture is a product of more than 3000 years of history and an multiethnic
influx. Ancient Tunisia had a major civilization crossing through history, different
cultures, civilizations and many dynasties. Carthaginian, Roman, Vandal, Jewish,
Christian, Arab, Islamic, Turkish, French and Berbers was their native civilization.
This unique mixture of cultures made the country, with its strategic geographical
location in the Mediterranean, the core of some great civilizations of Mare Nostrum.
Tunisian culture are diverse and represent a unique, mixed heritage.

Arts
The countrys older art came from the influence of China, Spain, Persia and the
near east forming style known as Arabesque. The artists are known for their
mosaics and pottery.

Dance
Dance forms in Tunisia are featured by a multilevel of forms and the
contexts in which it appears, including circumstances, weddings and festive events .
Tunisian dance resembles Egyptian dance, and is distinguished mainly by its
dynamic, with its speed with more staccato, and the multitude forms, with each
region having their own style. It is difficult to explain a Tunisian dance, since it is
influenced by the Egyptian.A social phenomenon born in the working classes of
Tunisian cities is reflected in the dance.


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Literature
Tunisian literature exists in two forms: Arabic and French. Arabic literature dates
back to the 17th century with the starting of Arab civilization in the region. It is
more important as in volume and value than French literature. Douagi Ali, has
produced more than 150 radio stories, over 500 poems and folk songs and nearly 15
plays. Khraief Bashir, an Arabic novelist who published many notable books in the
1930s and caused a scandal because the dialogues were written in Tunisian dialect.
The national bibliography lists about 1249 non-school books published in 2002 in
Tunisia, with 885 of them carrying Arabic titles. By 2006 this figure had increased
to 1,500 and 1,700 in 2007. Nearly a third of the books are published for children.


Festivals
Lots of international festivals, national, regional or local punctuate the
calendar year. National cultural scene is dominated by music and theatrical
festivals .In the July, the Carthage International Festival takes place, the
International Festival of Arts of Mahr and the International Festival of
Hammamet. During the months of OctoberNovember that the Carthage Film
Festival is held. The Carthage Film Festival, created in 1966 by the Tunisian
Minister of Culture, showcases films from the Maghreb, Africa and the Middle East.
Grand prize is the Tanit d'or, or "Golden Tanit," named after the lunar goddess of
ancient Carthage. The year is completed by the Sahara International Festival,
which celebrates the cultural traditions associated with the Tunisian desert. The
festival attracts many tourists and musicians from all around the world. Other
festivals honor traditional Tunisian music and jazz, including the Tabarka Jazz
Festival.



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Food
Tunisian cuisine is a blend of Mediterranean cuisine and desert dweller's culinary
traditions. Its distinctive spicy fieriness comes from neighboring Mediterranean
countries and many civilizations who have ruled Tunisian land such as
Phoenician, Roman, Arab, Turkish, French, and the native Berber people. A variety
of ingredients are used in many different ways. A variety of flavors are used in
cooking, such as oliveoil, aniseed, coriander, cinnamon, saffron, mint, orange,
blossom rosewater etc.



The national dish of Tunisia is Couscous and is prepared in many ways. Its
also known as the best couscous of North Africa. The food is cooked in a special
kind of double boiler called a kiskas in Arabic or couscoussire in French. Meat and
vegetables are half boiled in lower. At the top has holes in the bottom through
which the steam rises to cook the grain which is mixed finally.By doing so , the
grain acquires the flavour of whatever is below. Semolina is the usual grain used.
The grain is piled in the middle of a dish, and the meat and vegetables are put on
top and served. A sauce can be then poured .



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Sports

Football is the most popular sport in Tunisia.The Ligue Professionel has 14
teams that compete against one another for a trophy.It also a chance to qualify for
the Champions league of the African Cup of Nation. The football team won the
African Cup of Nations in the year 2004. However, sports like volleyball with 8
national team championship and handball with 7 national team championship
wins in Africa are also among the sports . Handball is the second most popular sport
in Tunisia.Tunisia held the 2005 World Men's Handball Championship and won
fourth place in the competition. Other sports include rugby union, martial arts like
taekwondo, judo and karate ,athletics and tennis. Other major sports are cycling are
less importance is given, due to lack of infrastructure and equipment but
competitors still compete in the Tour de Tunisia.

Media
Freedom of the press is officially guaranteed and condoned.Independent
press remains restricted.Journalists are often obstructed from reporting on
controversial events. Tunisia practiced internet censorship against popular websites
such as YouTube after the Jasmine Revolution,.Reporters Without Borders includes
Tunisia in the country list of Enemies of the Internet". Tunisia recently has
showed interest to improve its information policy, and hosted the second half of
the United Nations sponsored by the World Summit on the Information Society in
2005.This endorsed the freedom of the internet for political participation and
human rights protection. Further, Tunisians have grown online, as witnessed by the
more than 3.5 million regular internet users, 1.6 million Face book users and 100's
of internet cafes..Five private radio stations have been established including
Mosaique FM, Express FM, Shems FM and private television stations such as
Hannibal TV and Nessma TV.

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6. The Economy of Tunisia
History
Tunisia is one of the economic success stories in the African Continent. Over the
last 20 years, The country has enjoyed a good rate of growth when compared with
other countries. On a large scale, the success can be attributed to 3 main factors.
1) The political system and its integrity as well as the economic environment
paved way for a stable economic relation with foreign nations. Trade barriers
were reduced and the country was able to attract foreign investments.
2) Restructuring of the internal financial practices related to budget deficits,
inflation and taxes.
3) Development in infrastructure relative to the growth in the economy.
Tourism and service sectors were given importance.

The foundations for growth were laid by the French, during their occupation of the
country until 1956. The French governance installed a functional judicial system
and a well structured and reliable financial structure.
Brief economic timeline:
1960-1969 The socialist experience: The first president Habib Bourguiba was an
advocate of socialism and attempted nationalization of industries, and more
importantly, agriculture. He grew unpopular among the farmers and the public.
The struggle between capitalism and socialism that was prevalent in the world
affected the Tunisian economy and the world bank intervention pushed the
economy towards capitalism.
The Liberalist 1970s: The rise of state capitalism. The countrys economy changed
towards more liberal capitalist form of government. Privatization of industries and
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legislations to attract foreign investments and private firms took center stage. Even
though the measures took effect, the influence of trade unions prevented complete
liberalization of the economy.
1980-1986. The troubled times: The reducing oil and phosphate prices as well as
the shrinking European economy saw the country ailing under economic troubles.
Riots took place over bread prices and the government had to increase wages.
1985-1995 The Ben Ali Regime: This era saw complete integration of the Tunisian
economy the global economy. The rising public deficits forced the country to sign the
International Monetary funds Structural Adjustment Program. Market pricing
strategies and reduced tariffs became the policy. Subsidies were at 55% of
government spending and the budget deficit at 5.3%. All these forced the country to
restructure its financial structure, trade policies etc.
1995-2010 The Growth Era: Tunisia entered into bilateral agreements with
European Union and several countries which bolstered its economic growth. A
competitive pricing strategy with low labor costs allowed country to grow rapidly.
The Foreign investment climate was becoming more and more favorable. During the
period from 1991-1995, FDI doubled from $126 million to $250 million. Changes
were also visible in the trade sectors where in 1980s, petroleum and petroleum
based products accounted for over 50% of exports, followed by textiles at 18% and
agriculture at 8%. By 2006, Textiles accounted for 33% of exports while machinery
and agriculture amounted to 19% and fuel at 13%. This massive shift helped the
economy withstand external shocks due to fluctuations in oil prices as the
dependency reduced considerably.
The Government also gave importance to developing infrastructure especially
communications. This development helped improve the investment climate and
attractiveness for businesses.
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2010-Present The Post-revolution Years: Unstable political environment and
frequent strikes have resulted in a slow down of economic growth. The country is
still recovering from the affects of revolution. The economy showed a growth of 3.3%
on 2012, thanks to a good agricultural season and improvement in the tourism
sector.

Key Economic Indicators
1. GDP (2000-2013)


The growth in GDP has been steady and healthy. The important fact to note is that
the economy was practically unaffected by the 2008 global financial crisis. The
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growth stagnated during the years 2009-2011 due to the political revolution in the
country.





2. GDP Per Capita(2000-2013)

GDP Per capita also shows a similar trend as the overall GDP growth. The GDP per
capita shrunk from 2011-2012 owing to the political instability in the country.
3. Currency (Tunisian Dinar V/s USD) 2007-2013
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The Tunisian Dinar has been depreciating over the years from 1.35 in 2008 to
around 1.65 in 2013. The average over the years 2002-2013 has been around 1.370
with highest of 1.900 (March 2002) and lowest of 1.1300 (March 2008).

4. Inflation Rates


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The inflation rates have shown a fluctuating trend. Inflation has never been an
issue since 2002 and have peaked around 6% and the lowest being around 1.5%.
The rates are quite healthy over the years but the recent years have seen a rise in
inflation rates, again owing to the global economic situation and the internal
political instability.





5. Balance of Trade

The trade balance is negative. This shows that the imports of the country are nore
than exports. When the recent years are being considered, we can see a huge rise in
the balance of trade indicating a weakening of the domestic manufacturing
industry.
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6. Current Account to GDP

The current account deficit of the country is at 8.1% of GDP as in 2013. The country
has a strong dependence on imports and shows a healthy domestic consumption
cross referencing with the balance of trade confirms the increase in imports
resulting in a decrease in balance of trade as well.
7. Debt to GDP

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The debt to GDP Ratio is at 43.5% in 2013. The value peaked in 2002 at 67.6
and had a minimum in 2011 at 40.4%. The countrys ability to pay future
debts is measured by this value. This value also determines the market
values of government bonds and other debt instruments. The increasing Debt
to GDP ratio in the last 2 years is worrisome for the economy.







8. Unemployment rates


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The unemployment rates had a massive increase from 2011 to 2012, from 13% to
about 19%. The rise in unemployment rates have led to civil unrest in the country
and have resulted in political instability.

















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7. Doing Business in Tunisia
Tunisia is ranked 5
0th
in the world in doing business rankings. The country is
classified as an upper middle income country. The ranking have changed from 45 in
2012 to 50 in 2013.
When comparing with the other countries, We can find that the country has a good
rank in comparison with other frontier nations and emerging economies. The
average ranking in the region Middle East and North Africa are is at 98.



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The Ease of starting a business shows how friendly the country is with respect to
starting a new business. In Tunisia,it can be seen that the overall ranking for
starting a business is at 66. In this, Trading across borders have the highest
ranking at 30 and resolving insolvency at 39. This is an indicator of the countries
policies in relation to trade and business processes. The factor Getting credit has a
rather low rank at 104. This is an indication of the difficulty in capital building for
a business. The infrastructure factors are pretty good, indicating a good
infrastructure facility in the country.


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Over the years, it can be seen that some factors have improved considerably while
others have been constant. In comparison with 2005, we can see from the above
diagram that getting credit and protecting investors have become much easier. The
overall ranking has also improved pretty well. However, some factors like enforcing
contracts and dealing with construction permits have stayed constant over the
years.





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8. SWOT analysis:
Strengths
Geographic location and its proximity to Europe
Partner of European union
Trade agreements with EU, turkey and few Asian countries promote access to
the free markets.
Stable and sustained economic growth pattern.

Weakness
Unemployment
Political instability
Religious divide

Opportunities
Promotion of higher education leading to higher employment
Simplified procedures in place to attract foreign investments
Threats
Unemployment
Competition from European and Asian countries in the textile sector.
Dependence on external funding for Current account deficits.
Terrorism






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9. Conclusion
Tunisia is a country of promise. Over the years, the development has been stable
and healthy. The stable political environment upto 2011 gave a strong base.
According to the world bank, Tunisia is the only country in the Northern African
region who have moved into the middle income region. The economic and political
history has shown the potential the country has in being an economic force to
reckon with. The country now boasts of an economy with over 2100 foreign firms
investing in Tunisian companies. The geographically strategic position and trade
relations with the Middle East as well as European Union ensure a bright future.
The government policies for the future cater to encourage FDI inflows, which
will boost the business environment of the country. Other priorities include
reducing unemployment rates and improving infrastructure. From an Investors
point of view, these factors ensure a good future for the country. The current
political instability is the only thing that is dragging the country down. With a new
constitution and some fresh faces in the governance, it is rest assured that the
country is on the path to being the Economic hub of Africa.








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10. References
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/indicators
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ts.html
http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1141&context=curej
http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/03/21/a-timeline-of-tunisias-economic-policies-since-
independence/
http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2011/01/tunisias-shot-at-democracy-what-
demographics-and-recent-history-tell-us/#.UlwsxVDPGhs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Tunisia
http://www.indexmundi.com/tunisia/demographics_profile.html
http://www.infoplease.com/country/tunisia.html?pageno=3
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14107553
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/indicators
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Tunisia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Tunisia