Guy Quinlan, NGO Committee on Disarmament, Peace and Security
Nuclear weaponry and global climate change, two of the planet!s most dangerous threats to humanity, are deeply intertwined. Massive nuclear weapons budgets consume resources that are badly needed to address the climate crisis. And even a modest deployment of such weapons could sharply worsen climate change risks, triggering a decline in the world food supply of such magnitude that it would likely overwhelm any after-the-fact response. An international scientific study submitted in July 2014 to the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network 1 calls for major investments to research and develop low-carbon technologies, cautioning that efforts to avoid climate catastrophe will require nothing less than a profound transformation of energy systems by mid-century. It is not clear, however, how resources for such an effort will be found, since the world!s atomic weapons states have launched highly expensive modernization programs. Despite treaty obligations to negotiate an end to the nuclear arms race at an early date and to negotiate nuclear disarmament 2 , the world!s nuclear powers are instead enhancing their nuclear arsenals in an effort to extend them to 2050 and beyond. The United States, for example, plans to spend $345 billion to upgrade its nuclear arsenal over the next decade, and an estimated $1 trillion over the next 30 years 3 . According to a recent study by the Government Accountability Office 4 , even these figures may seriously underestimate reality.
The Russian Federation plans to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear delivery systems. Modernization plans for both the U.S. and Russia include upgraded intercontinental ballistic missiles, new stealth bombers, new nuclear-capable fighter-bombers, enhanced nuclear submarine fleets, and new nuclear cruise missies.
China is upgrading its land-based missiles and expanding its submarine-based nuclear deterrent, while France plans to enhance its submarine-launched missiles and replace some of its nuclear capable fighter-bombers with newer models. 5 If even a fraction of these planned expenditures were devoted to curbing greenhouse gas emissions, the chances of averting climate disaster would be immensely improved.
The implications of climate change for global peace and security have so far received little public attention, but military and intelligence experts are acutely aware of the dangers involved. The National Research Council recently released a report 6 , commissioned by the U.S. intelligence community, concluding that the Earth!s climate is changing at a rate that is unprecedented, at least throughout human history and that we know beyond reasonable doubt that the consequences will be extensive.
The report warns that likely scenarios of sea level rise, the shrinking of glaciers and the Arctic ice cap, an increase in extreme weather events, and increasingly intense droughts, floods and heat waves, along with resulting food and water insecurity and disruption of vital supply chains, threaten to cause disruptive migrations of populations, humanitarian disasters beyond the ability of national governments to cope, destabilization of fragile governments, and severe conflicts over increasingly scarce resources.
These dangers are greatly exacerbated by the continuing presence of nuclear weapons. One of the threatened areas identified by the NRC report is the Indian subcontinent, which is also the site of the world!s most intense nuclear arms raceIndia and Pakistan, embroiled in several armed conflicts over the years, are both expanding the size and lethality of their nuclear arsenals.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies recently warned that the continuing expansion of Pakistan!s and India!s nuclear capabilities [creates] ever greater concern about an intensifying nuclear arms race in South Asia. 7
Both countries are pursuing precision-strike tactical nuclear missiles, a development that increases the risk of dangerous miscalculations, 8 according to the U.S. National Intelligence director!s office. Recent scientific studies have found that the climate effects of even a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could drastically disrupt global agriculture, putting two billion people at risk of famine. 9
These twin existential threats to humanitynuclear weaponry and climate changemust be addressed in concert, through serious action on nuclear disarmament and by shifting any freed resources to the task of keeping the planet habitable. 1 Pathways to Deep Decarbonization, The interim report, produced by expert teams from 15 countries, will be further expanded and a final report submitted in 2015 to the French government as the host of UNFCCC!s COP-21. 2 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Article VI. 3 Hans Kristensen, Nuclear Weapon Modernization: a Threat to the NPT?, Arms Control Today, May 2014. 4 Tom Z. Collina, Nuclear Costs Undercounted, GAO Says, Arms Control Association website. 5 Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Slowing Nuclear Weapons Reductions and Endless Nuclear Weapon Modernization: a Challenge to the NPT, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists online edition, 20 June 2014. 6 National Research Council (2013) Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis. 7 India, Pakistan Tactical Arms Race is Very Risky, New Report Says, National Journal, Global Security Newswire, September 12, 2013. 8 South Asian Tactical Missiles Risk Dangerous Miscalculations, U.S. Intel Officer Says. National Journal, Global Security Newswire, June 6, 2013. 9 International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility, Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People at Risk; Mills, M.J., O.B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor, and A. Robock, Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict (2014), Earth's Future, 2, 161-176.