Will a change in India affect Bangladesh?

--Ziauddin Choudhury
In less than a month India will announce its new parliamentarians elected in a marathon election
process lasting over six weeks. If the predictions of the political pundits hold out it is likely that the
alliance led by Bharatiya Janata Party will come out with the largest number of elected representatives
and form the next government. There is also a wide speculation that Narendra Modi, the current Chief
Minister of Gujarat, who is riding on a popularity wave of BJP supporters, would be the next Prime
Minister of India. But irrespective of whether Narendra Modi, the man both loved by some and disliked
by others, becomes the next Prime Minister of India, the polls heavily lean toward a new government in
India without the Congress, the party that ruled for last ten years. This prospect seems to have stirred
some concern in many quarters in Bangladesh. Will a change in government in India affect bilateral
relations?
In Bangladeshs forty three years of existence nearly two thirds of the period Indian Congress or
Congress led alliance held the helm of Indias federal government. Congress held power during our
liberation war and for nearly twenty five years after that, albeit with a break of about three years of
non-Congress government from 1977-1980. Bangladesh politicians, in particular of Awami League, had
developed a close relationship with Congress leaders during the war of liberation and thereafter, which
would reflect in our foreign policies and close economic and trade relations immediately after liberation.
This led to a false belief among some that the apparent coziness and familiarity of the leaders of the two
parties shaped our relationship with India. The current hypotheses of a close relationship between the
countries also follow from the same fallacy of presumed personal bond between two government
leaders. These assumptions ignore the essential dictum of foreign policy of a country, which is self-
interest.
There are two stark examples of how two former non-Congress governments in India dealt with her
neighbors to alter their neighbors attitude.
The first relates to Bangladesh. India-Bangladesh relationship soured after violent changes in Bangladesh
politics and ushering of a new regime led by the military. A very warm and cordial bilateral relation
turned cold and remained that way for a few years until Congress suffered a major defeat in 1977 and
for the first time ever a non-Congress government would take over the helm in India led by Morarji
Desai. Disproving the concept that Congress was the only of Bangladesh Desai made a visit to
Bangladesh in an ostensible measure to show Indias friendliness. One of the major outcomes of this
visit was discussion on the thorny Farakka Barrage leading to formation of a joint river commission
between the two countries.
The second relates to Pakistan. When BJP came to power in 1996 for the first time after trouncing
Congress, relationship with Pakistan was at the lowest ebb. In late 1998 and early 1999, Vajpayee began
a push for a full-scale diplomatic peace process with Pakistan. With the historic inauguration of the
Delhi-Lahore bus service in February 1999, Vajpayee initiated a new peace process aimed towards
resolving the Kashmir dispute and other conflicts with Pakistan. His visit to Pakistan in 1991 led to
Lahore Declaration ushering a commitment to dialogue, expanded trade relations and mutual friendship
and a goal of denuclearizing South Asia.
The examples are cited to illustrate the reality that a countrys foreign policy and bilateral relations are
based on its national interest. Morarji Desai in 1979 and Atal Bihari Vajpayee were looking after their
own countrys interest when they dealt with Bangladesh and Pakistan. Desai was concerned that
managing diverse divisive groups in eastern India will not be effective with a non- friendly Bangladesh.
Vajpayee was concerned that a nuclear armed Pakistan can be better managed with friendly gestures
rather than hostile. The relationship between India and Bangladesh was no different in BJP period than
either before or after.
Personal closeness between leaders of countries does matter in forming bonds and understandings, but
this is not a substitute for fundamental aspects of bilateral relationship, which is each countrys own
interest. These interests are best achieved by maturity of statesmanship, strategic positioning, and
deeper understanding of the views and policies of the other country.
Governments come and go, but countries and people remain for long. With impending changes in India
our leaders need also to rise up to the challenges of new relationship and new dialogues. Our rhetoric
need to be supported by plans, both tactical and strategic, to keep the bilateral relations mutually
beneficial.
Despite the apparently close friendly relations with India in last decades there still remain unresolved
issues between two countries, water sharing and territorial exchanges included. India has also some
unmet wishes including transit and transshipment, and concerns over terrorism. A new government in
India will look upon these with as much earnestness as the one before. All of these require deft and
competent handling on our side. I hope we will be ready both politically and technically when the
change comes.

The writer is a US based commentator and political analyst.