12th Lecture - When Not To Raise

When Not To Raise

The following lecture was the 12th Tuesday Session, held December 15, 1998, and later
appeared in Card Player magazine.
Classroom Lectures: Stop Making Bad Raises
There are two equally valid approaches to raising. You can meet every single opportunity
with an attitude that silently asks, "Why should I raise?" You then try to see if there are any
reasons why a raise - rather than a call or a fold - would be appropriate. Or you can ask, "Why
shouldn't I raise?" You then try to see if there are any reasons why a call or a fold -rather than
a raise - would be appropriate right now.
One way, you're assuming that you won't raise and try to argue yourself into it. The other
way, you're assuming you will raise, and you try to argue yourself out of it. Conceptually,
either of these approaches should lead to the same conclusion, provided all factors are
weighed correctly. But, however you go about your decision making, raising at the wrong
times can be very costly. We're about to talk about that.
Today's column is based on Tuesday Session #12 which took place December 15, 1998. The
topic was
"When Not to Raise"
1. Always ask yourself the reason before you take any assertive action in poker.
If you're betting, make sure you know why. Just a vague notion is not good enough.
Justify your choices. Once you get in this habit, you're apt to discover that you have
been taking actions for the wrong reasons - or for no reasons at all.
You should do the same exercise before you call and - especially - before you raise.
There are more experienced players than you might expect raising for faulty reasons,
or without a clue as to the reason. From today on, unless you have a reason to raise,
don't. That means never. Quite simply, I'm asking you to adopt the approach to raising
where you first assume that you won't raise and then argue yourself into a raise if you
can.
2. Two reasons to raise.
Excluding the psychological aspect of poker, there are really only two basic reasons to
raise. (1) To build a bigger pot, and (2) to increase your chance of winning.
Sometimes you need to evaluate both these factors to decide on a tactic. Building a
bigger pot means more money if you win, and is often the best choice for a strong
hand, but it sometimes actually decreases your chances of winning that pot. This can
happen, for instance, if you build a bigger pot by not raising with an exceptionally
strong hand, inviting many players in. You are then more likely to lose, because there
are more opponents remaining who might get lucky and beat you. But you're hoping
that the increased risk will be overwhelmed by increased profit from a bigger pot if
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you do win. Conversely, if you raise from an early position, you may be making the
pot smaller by chasing opponents out, but you will tend to win more often.
In addition to these two key strategic reasons to raise, you might sometimes raise to
enhance your image - and profit later. When you make an image raise, you are
working toward being the one force at your table to be reckoned with. It is not
necessary that the raise will add an expectation of extra profit on that pot itself. The
extra profit can come from subsequent pots, because your raise has helped to build a
commanding image that lets you manipulate your opponents. So, when you begin with
the premise that you will not raise, image can sometimes be a factor in changing your
mind. But be careful. Don't let yourself be argued into a raise frivolously. If you don't
really need to enhance your image right now, or if the raise would be too costly for the
benefits, just call or even fold.
3. Be careful whom you drive out.
You should usually not raise if you expect to drive out the weak hands and remain
against the strong ones. This, unfortunately, is a common result of "thin the field"
strategy. Often you would prefer to play against fewer opponents. Some hands simply
make more profit that way. But what if your raise will thin the field in the wrong way?
What if the most likely callers are those you least want to play against and the most
likely folders are those you most want to play against. In that case, a raise can be
wrong, even though you did want to thin the field and play against fewer opponents.
That's because you didn't want to thin the field if it meant playing against only
opponents with the stronger hands. And that's often the case. This is why - in general -
I'm not an advocate of thin-the-field raising for many common situations for which it
is advised.
4. Hold 'em raising pre-flop.
Before the flop in hold 'em most players raise too often. This is not just guesswork, but
a viewpoint I've formed after studying hold 'em opponents for many years and
comparing what they do to the ideal strategies I've devised through computer research
and other analysis.
I believe that you should often just call and see what develops. Since most of a hold
'em hand blossoms on the flop, you really aren't usually raising with the advantage you
assume. This doesn't mean you shouldn't be very aggressive in short-handed games
and when attacking the blinds from late positions when no one else has entered the
pot. But it does mean in full and nearly full games, there are many times when you
should opt to just call before the flop, rather than raise.
Also, for a different reason, in seven-card stud it's better to just call with self-
disguising small "rolled up" trips. If I start with 5-5-5 with a king and a queen waiting
to act behind me, I'll usually just call. Raising looks suspicious and makes players
think that I might have greater than a pair of fives. If I just call, I'm likely to be called
or even raised by weak hands that might otherwise have folded. With rolled-up three-
of-a-kind, do what would look most natural to your opponents who are only seeing
your upcard. If that upcard is high relative to other exposed cards, your raise will look
natural and opponents will not even think that you necessarily have a pair. In that case,
you should usually raise. But, with a small three-of-a-kind to start, you should seldom
raise.
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5. When opponents are deceptive.
One of the biggest mistakes in poker is routinely raising with marginal hands against
deceptive foes. Since a raise with a marginal hand is a borderline decision that won't
earn much extra profit - on average - even in ideal situations, it will often lose money
against deceptive opponents. How come? It's because those opponents won't behave.
You can't count on them to just call with stronger-than-average hands. Instead, they
are likely to get full value by raising with their marginally strong hands, and they may
occasionally even be bluffing. These possibilities can often remove all the value and
more out of that "value raise."
Also, don't raise in middle position on the last round with anything except a super
strong hand or a bluff. You'll make more by just calling and giving the next player a
chance to overcall. This advice isn't obvious, but it's the answer. Research proves that
middle-position raises, in most common situations on the final betting rounds, should
seldom be made with hands of secondary strength. Save these raises for super
powerful hands or for occasional bluffs.
6. When to steal blinds.
If the "blind" players are aggressive and unpredictable, abandon most blind stealing.
The best types of opponents to steal against are tight and timid. Always remind
yourself of that before you barge into the pot with your precious chips.
7. Handling a bluffer.
Don't raise with strong hands on an early betting round against a frequent bluffer. Let
him continue to bluff. This strategy can sometimes work against you, but overall you'll
make more money if you allow your opponent to exercise his most glaring weakness -
in this case, bluffing too much.
8. Wrong people to raise.
Don't chase away your profit by making daring raises against solid players when weak
players remain to act after you. When you do this, you are just chasing out the wrong
people. One concept of poker that is seldom talked about is that you should be much
more willing to raise when a loose player has bet and tight players remain to act
behind you than when a tight player has bet and loose players remain to act behind
you. The reason is that often you'd like to be able to chase others out and face only the
loose bettor. But you seldom want to chase the loose players out and face only the
tight player.
9. What if you're losing?
One of the most important lessons is to stop "value raising" when you're losing. These
daring bets for extra profit only work when your opponents are intimidated. When
opponents see that you're losing, they're inspired and they become more daring and
deceptive. And as we discussed in point #5, you definitely do not want to be making
marginal raises against deceptive foes.
There is a lot more to the science of raising. But you'll be on the path to mastering it if you
always make sure you have a reason before you raise. - MC

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