CH3 Human Resource Planning

1
m_wahba m_wahba2003 2003 hotmail hotmail..com com

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
Lectures Week 3
Dr. Mohamed wahba
HUMAN RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
42
After studying this chapter, you should be able to: After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
Define HR planning and outline the HR
planning process.
Discuss several ways of managing a
surplus of human resources.
Explain the main techniques used in
employment planning and forecasting.
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53
Linking Employers Strategy to Plans
Figure 52
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Human Resource Planning
Human Resource (HR) Planning
The process of analyzing and identifying the need
for and availability of human resources so that the
organization can meet its objectives.
HR Planning Responsibilities
Top HR executive and subordinates gather
information from other managers to use in the
development of HR projections for top
management to use in strategic planning and
setting organizational goals
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45
Reasons, human resources planning
Increasing population and the large size of the workforce
and the diversity of the composition.
The spread of education and diversity and the increase in
professional disciplines.
Increasing number of organizations and institutions and
then increasing needs and compete for the available
manpower.
Development of the technology used by organizations
and the need to obtain a workforce that can deal with
this technology.
Change the structures of organizations, both because of
the development of technology or the changing nature of
activities or a new expansion.
46
The importance of human resource planning
To obtain the required labor standards specified in the
appropriate time.
Rationalize the use of the human resource and to direct
his energies in the right direction.
Determine the proper career path for individuals.
Identify training needs for individuals
Functionally to facilitate the movement of workers (from
the transfer and promotion)
Treat the problem of the imbalance that occurs in the
distribution of workers to different departments and units.
Stability of employment and raise their efficiency and
increase productivity
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27
Purpose of HR Planning Purpose of HR Planning
Figure 24
28
Typical Division of HR Responsibilities: Typical Division of HR Responsibilities:
HR Planning HR Planning
Figure 25
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29
HR Planning Process HR Planning Process
Figure 26
210
Human Resource Planning (contd)
Small Business and HR Planning Issues
Attracting and retaining qualified outsiders
Management succession between generations of
owners
Evolution of HR activities as business grows
Family relationships and HR policies
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211
HR Planning Process
HR Strategies
The means used to anticipate and manage the
supply of and demand for human resources.
Provide overall direction for the way in which HR
activities will be developed and managed.
Overall Overall
Strategic Plan Strategic Plan
Human Resources Human Resources
Strategic Plan Strategic Plan
HR Activities HR Activities
212
Benefits of HR Planning
Better view of the HR dimensions of business
decisions
Lower HR costs through better HR
management.
More timely recruitment for anticipate HR
needs
More inclusion of protected groups through
planned increases in workforce diversity.
Better development of managerial talent
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213
Scanning the External Environment
Environmental Scanning
The process of studying the environment of the
organization to pinpoint opportunities and threats.
Environmental Changes Impacting HR
Governmental Influences
Economic conditions
Geographic and competitive concerns
Workforce composition
214
Assessing the Internal Workforce (contd)
Organizational Capabilities Inventory
HRIS databasessources of information about
employees knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs)
Components of an organizational capabilities
inventory
Individual employee demographics
Individual employee career progression
Individual job performance data
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215
Forecasting HR Supply and Demand
Forecasting
The use of information from the past and present to
identify expected future conditions.
Forecasting Methods
Judgmental
Estimatesasking managers opinions, top-down or
bottom-up
Rules of thumbusing general guidelines
Delphi techniqueasking a group of experts
Nominal groupsreaching a group consensus in open
discussion
216
HR Forecasting HR Forecasting
Figure 27
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217
(contd)
Forecasting Methods (contd)
Mathematical
Statistical regression analysis
Simulation models
Productivity ratiosunits produced per employee
Staffing ratiosestimates of indirect labor needs
Forecasting Periods
Short-termless than one year
Intermediateup to five years
Long-rangemore than five years
218
(contd)
Forecasting the Demand for Human Resources
Organization-wide estimate for total demand
Unit breakdown for specific skill needs by number and
type of employee
Develop decision rules (fill rates) for positions to be filled
internally and externally.
Develop additional decision rules for positions impacted by
the chain effects of internal promotions and transfers.
Forecasting the Supply for Human Resources
External Supply
Internal Supply
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219
Forecasting HR Supply (contd)
Forecasting External HR Supply
Factors affecting external
Net migration for an area
Individuals entering and leaving the workforce
Individuals graduating from schools and colleges
Changing workforce composition and patterns
Economic forecasts
Technological developments and shifts
Actions of competing employers
Government regulations and pressures
Other circumstances affecting the workforce
220
Forecasting HR Supply
Forecasting Internal HR Supply
Effects of promotions, lateral moves, and terminations
Succession analysis
Replacement charts
Succession planning
The process of identifying
a longer-term plan for the
orderly replacement of key
employees.
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221
Estimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given Unit Estimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given Unit
Figure 28
2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 522
Forecasting Personnel Needs
Trend analysis
The study of a firms past employment needs over
a period of years to predict future needs.
Ratio analysis
A forecasting technique for determining future
staff needs by using ratios between a causal
factor and the number of employees needed.
Assumes that the relationship between the causal
factor and staffing needs is constant
12
The Scatter Plot
Scatter plot
A graphical method used to help identify the
relationship between two variables.
Size of Hospital Number of
(Number of Beds) Registered Nurses
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
Determining the Relationship Between
Hospital Size and Number of Nurses
Figure 53
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225
Trend Analysis of HR Demand
1997 $2,351 14.33 164
1998 $2,613 11.12 235
1999 $2,935 8.34 352
2000 $3,306 10.02 330
2001 $3,613 11.12 325
2002 $3,748 11.12 337
2003 $3,880 12.52 310
2004* $4,095 12.52 327
2005* $4,283 12.52 342
2006* $4,446 12.52 355
BUSINESS LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES
FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND
YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)
*Projected figures
Drawbacks to Scatter Plots
1. They focus on projections and historical relationships, and
assume that the firms existing structure and activities will
continue into the future.
2. They generally do not consider the impact the companys
strategic initiatives may have on future staffing levels.
3. They tend to support compensation plans that reward managers
for managing ever-larger staffs, and will not uncover managers
who expand their staffs irrespective of strategic needs.
4. They tend to bake in the nonproductive idea that increases in
staffs are inevitable.
5. They tend to validate and institutionalize existing planning
processes and ways of doing things, even in the face of rapid
change.
14
Using Computers to Forecast Personnel
Requirements
Computerized forecasts
The use software packages to determine of future
staff needs by projecting sales, volume of
production, and personnel required to maintain a
volume of output.
Generates figures on average staff levels required to
meet product demands, as well as forecasts for direct
labor, indirect staff, and exempt staff.
Typical metrics: direct labor hours required to produce
one unit of product (a measure of productivity), and three
sales projectionsminimum, maximum, and probable.
528
Using Markov Analysis to Forecast
Personnel Requirements
Markov analysis Markov analysis is a technique that deals with the
probabilities of future occurrences by analyzing
presently known probabilities
It has numerous applications in business
Markov analysis makes the assumption that the system
starts in an initial state or condition
The probabilities of changing from one state to another
are called a matrix of transition probabilities
Solving Markov problems requires basic matrix
manipulation
15
Assumptions for using Markov
429
1. There are a limited or finite number of possible
states
2. The probability of changing states remains the
same over time
3. We can predict any future state from the
previous state and the matrix of transition
probabilities
4. The size and makeup of the system do not
change during the analysis
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Markov Analysis for a Retail Company
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Ex1
Company consists of 300 employees at its headquarters
in Cairo and 100 employees in the branch of Alexandria.
The movement of staff during the past five years
represented the following percentages:
431
to
from
Cairo Alexandria Exit
Cairo
Alexandria
Predicted the number of staff in both headquarters
and the branch of Alexandria the next two years
through the numbers currently available only
YEAR 1
CAIRO
300
80 CAIRO
240
10 Alexandria
30
10 EXIT
30
Alexandria
100
15 CAIRO
15
75 Alexandria
75
10 EXIT
10
At the end of the first year the number of employees in CAIRO =
240+15=255
At the end of the first year the number of employees in Alexandria =
75+30=105
SOLVE
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YEAR 2
CAIRO
255
80 CAIRO
204
10 Alexandria
26
10 EXIT
25
Alexandria
105
15 CAIRO
16
75 Alexandria
79
10 EXIT
10
At the end of the second year the number of employees in CAIRO =
204+16=220
At the end of the second year the number of employees in Alexandria
= 26+79=105
SOLVE
Ex2
Company consists of three offices in Egypt (Cairo
- Tanta - Port Said) and works in this company in
2010 (900) employees distributed as follows:
400 employees in Cairo.
300 employees in Tanta.
200 employees in Port Said.
Predicted the number of staff in each region after
two years (at the end of 2012) if you have the
following information derived from the analysis of
the movement of staff during the past five years.
434
18
25
EX EX EX EX2 22 2
TO\FROM Cairo Tanta
Port
Said
Exit
Cairo
70 5 10 15
Tanta
10 65 5 20
Port Said
10 5 75 10
Manual Systems and Replacement Charts
Personnel replacement charts
Company records showing present performance
and promotability of inside candidates for the
most important positions.
Position replacement card
A card prepared for each position in a company to
show possible replacement candidates and their
qualifications.
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237

How to deal with the surplus and deficit
438
First, dealing with the surplus
If the demand over supply in the labor
market
1. Rehabilitation of this type of employment
2. Retain employment for cases of leaving the
service
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439
First, dealing with the surplus
If the supply over demand in the labor market:
1. Retirement
2. Encourage early retirement
3. Unemployment compensation
4. Training and retraining
5. Find alternative employment
440
Secondly, dealing with the deficit
If the demand over supply in the labor market:
1. Find new sources of employment
2. Facilitate the selection process
3. Wage increase
4. Raise the productivity of the individual
5. Enlargement the job
6. use Technology instate of employees
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441
Secondly, dealing with the deficit
If the demand over supply in the labor market:
1. Choose the best available items

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