Can B er n i e W i n ?

BUR L
T
be above question iscer-
tain '0 beaskedrepeated-
l y during the next eight months.
Pundits, pol s and pol l sters in
Vermont wil l agonize over it in
much the same way that their
national counterparts have
wondered, "WhatdocsJ essewant?"
The answer, however, seems
fair!y obvious inboth cases. J ackson
wants to be president. And, yes,
Sanders can defeat Republican
incumbent P eter Smith in the race
forVermont's l one US House seat.
But no one, incl uding the
candidates, imagines that either
goal wil l be easil y attained. In
fact. there are l ots of reasons 10
bet on -Smith in the congres-
sional contest.
One of the strongest is that
House incumbents al most al ways
win re-el ection. In 1988, for ex-
ampl e, their success rate was about
98 percent. And a few of the 20
or so losers probably would have
won, tOO, had tbey not been in-
vol ved in scandal s of some sort.
Assuming that Smith's per-
sonal reputation remains untar-
nished, the race becomes his 10
l ose. Sanders must then over-
come theconsiderabl eadvantages
N Q TON
of incumbency whil e convinc-
inga majority of voters that Smith's
voting record isoot in their interests.
This is a nearl y impossibl c
task, in the opinion of Middl e.
bury Col l ege pol itical scientist
Eric Davis. "I'd be very sur-
prised if Bernie gets more than
40 percent" of the vote, he says.
Davis points to Smith's con-
stituent-service operation, which
has hel ped hundreds of Ver-
monters sl ice their way through
the federal bureaucratic maze.
That assistance gets dispensed
from five offices around the state,
each of them l ocated in a major
popul ation center. Smith's out.
reach centers, which consume a
l arge share of his staff budget,
al so afford the congressman a
high degree of pol itical visibil ity
in these key l ocal ities.
In addition, Smith has done
"8 very good job of positioning
himsel f in the middl e of the pol i-
tical spectrum," Davis notes.
The incumbent's voting record,
which general l y fits snugl y in
the J efforcs-Srafford-Alken mol d
of moderate Vermont Repub-
l icanism, coul dwel l persuade many
Democrats to vote for Smith,
,....
Davis bel ieves. And thattempta-
tion is l ikel y to be especial l y
strong if no el ectoral l y credibl e
Democrat enters the fray.
TheMiddkmyi>Okssorsingl <s
out Smith's courtship of atviron-
_y-minded!l ermaal s. This is
terrain, Davis thinks. on which it
wil t bedifficul t for Sanders to com-
pete. Smith can point to his en-
dorsement by lbe League of Con-
scrvauon voters, while "thai aspect
ofBemic's record isn't very strong.
what with probl ems l ike the Pine
Street Barge Canal and the Bur-
tington dump," Davis suggests.
BUI other anal ysts argue that
Smith's incumbency and voting
record are not such formidabl e
assets.
University of Vennont pol iti
cal scientist Garrison Nel son points
out that certain kinds of sitting
congressmembers are more l ikel y
than others to fail in their re-el ec-
tion bids. Smith, he observes,
fal l s into that more vul nerabl e
category of"presicJ cntiaJ freshmen."
or the 32 House incumbents
who l ost in the off-year el ections
of 1982 and 1986, Nel son notes,
hal f were first-term Republ icans.
Like Smith, each of these de-
feated freshmen had original l y
won office on the coattail s of their
party's White House candidate.
The curse of the "prestden-
tial freshmen" coul d be particu-
l arl y troubl esome in Smith's case,
Nel son adds, since this Repub-
continued 0/1. page 6 ...
Bernie Sanders announced his rematch with Peter Smith last MOl/day i" Montpelier.
CAN BERNIE WIN?
~ continued from page 5
liean ran a full 10 points behind
GeageBush'sVermontvoteinl988.
"I think Bernie's in terrific
shape this lime," the UVM pun-
dit declares. "II's the most win-
nable statewide race he's ever
fun. He's gOI a real good chance,
provided no heavyweight Demo-
crar gels involved:' (See accom-
panying srory.)
Craig Fuller, director of the
state Democratic Party, mean-
while disputes the "media view"
of Smith as a center-left Repub-
lican. "His voting record is atro-
cious," Fuller asserts. "He's a
Reagan Republican."
Asked to furnish evidence
for that charge, Fuller cites
Smith's support for moves to
weaken legislation increasing the
minimum wage. The Democrat
strategist also scores the Repub-
Iican's refusal to back a transfer
of funds from the Star Wars
weapons system 10 education
programs.
Nelson agrees that Smith may
have problems parrying Sanders'
thrusts on economic issues. "limes
aren't going to be too good in
Vermont next November," he pre-
dicts. "If the state's in a full-blown
recession by then, that just means
class issues will cut even deeper,"
Despite their differing inter-
pretaticns, most analysts do agree
that theoutcomeof the race hinges
on two factors. First, they say,
Sanders needs to win over most
of the voters who supported
Democrat Paul Poirier in 1988's
three-way House contest. And
lhe Independent challenger must
also improve markedly on his
showing two years ago in southern
Vermont counties of Windsor,
Windham and Bennington.
The 19 percent of the votc
taken by Poirier came mainly
from three areas, Davis notes:
the Democrat's home turf of Barre
and neighboring towns, diehard
Democrats in Franklin County,
and blue-collar southern Ver-
monters. Davis doubts that Sanders
will do much better among voters
in those latter two categories.
Only in central Vermont, he sug-
gests, is the former Burlington
mayor likely to pick up a ma-
jority of the Poirier vote.
Smith did carry Washington
County in 1988, however, partly
because he once represented a
portion of that area in the Ver-
mont Legislature. Conversely,
though, Franklin was one of the
five counties in which Sanders
finished first.
111ereal showdown, then, will
probably occur in the south. Smith
won Windsor, Windham and Ben-
nington by a combined total of
8,468votes last time, which was more
than his staiewidcrnargin of victory.
Soshanna Rihn, a key Sanders
activist in Brattleboro, believes
her candidate will do substan-
tially better this time in at least
two of those counties.
"We're going to make sure
we have people active in every
lawn in Windham and Windsor,"
she says, "It was the small towns
there that killed us in 1988."
But Rihn confesses, "I worry
about Bennington. It's the black
hole of Vermont in terms of
progressive activism."
Sanders' chances in the south
are not improved by the fact that
Smith maintains constituent of-
fices in both Brattleboro and Ben-
nington. Residents in both those
communities are also generally
beyond the range of Burlington
media, making it essential for
Sanders to purchase TV com-
mercials inthe canparatively expen-
sive Albany (New Y ork), Spring-
field (Massachusetts) ilnd Man-
chester (New Hampshire) marl;
No discussions have yetla~'
place about media buys Rih en
B
' I nrc
ports. ut she notes thalS
an
-
should be able to devote a ' dCrs
. Sllabl
share of his campaign b d C
I
. U getlo
e ec~roOlcadvertising,since"m
of his workers arc willingt hOSt
him for free." a clp
AnOlhcr potentially aueial f
concerns Sanders' und',m .aetor
h
. InJ S ed
commitment to socialism C
lb lh . r . ~d
I e at sign I ream numbe
V
' , " rSof
ennonters Will J OIO In thew I
id ' , ord.
WI e rejection afpoliticiansd
iflcd . h h < I en.
11 Wit t _at ideology?
Several observers Cc1UllOh
. ntal
S mi thcould commit a serious or
if h .. ror
I e rarscs this topic. And the
congressman's staffers S<lytheir
boss has no plans at present to
make Sanders answer for the .
Sins
of other self-proclaimed sex;ial
o
Th d
ISIS
C can Idate himself dra .
h ' dl ws
a s arp Istinction betwc
.. h . . en
aut or.II?T1an communism," as
exemplified by the "horrendou
d
,
mur erous crimes of a Stalin"
and his Own "democrali'
socialis~:" Condemning the b~
of politics long practiced in
Eastern Europe, China and the
Soviet Union, Sanders instead
holds up the model of Sweden's
social democracy.
"We hear a lot about the im-
pcrfections of Sweden," hesayso
"But let's hear also about the
achievements. This is a COUntry
with practically no unemploy.
merit, an excellent national heahh
care system, a guarantee of free
college education for all, six-
week paid vacations for all
workers, and a 90 percent par.
ucipatlon rate in elections.
"I'd be content with a defini-
tion of socialism in the United
States," he adds, "that included
those kinds of accomplishments."
T Kevin J. Kelley