The Work of Eugen Slutsky

Author(s): R. G. D. Allen
Source: Econometrica, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Jul., 1950), pp. 209-216
Published by: The Econometric Society
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E C O N O M E T R I C A
VO LUM E 18 JULY, 1950 N UM BE R 3
T HE WO R K O F E UGE N SLUT SKY
BYR . G. D. A LLE N
E UGE N SLUT SKY, whose death has recently been reported, was an out-
standing mathematician and statistician. His work has had a great and
lasting influence on the development of econometrics in two important
fields, the theory of consumer's behaviour and the analysis of time
series. I n each casehis basicarticleremained almost unknown formany
years, was later rediscovered, and had an increasing effect in shaping
the work of others in the field.
During the 1920's and early 1930's, Slutsky published a number of
statistical articles on stochastic processes and time series analysis, some
in French, I talian, and German. His main article [23], now a classic
contribution, appeared in R ussian, with only a brief summary in E nglish,
in a publication of the M oscow C onjuncture I nstitute in 1927. His
treatment of the time series problem was akin to that of Yule in the
famous articles of 1921 and 1926 in the Journal of the R oyal Statistical
Society1 and together they had a very great influence on the later work
in the field. Slutsky's contribution, however, remained little known for
some years, until Henry Schultz, whose eagle eye missed very little in
his field, was responsible for the preparation of a translation. A n E nglish
version of the work, with the addition of later material, was finally
prepared by Slutsky and published in this Journal in 1937
[42].
T he main object of this work of Slutsky'swas to demonstratethat
an oscillatory series could be generated from a random series by taking
a moving sum or difference, with or without weights and with or with-
out repetition of the process. T heoscillatory seriesso generated displayed
1
"O n the T ime C orrelation Problem with E special R eference to the Variate-
Difference C orrelation M ethod," Journal of theR oyal Statistical Society, Vol. 84,
July, 1921, pp. 497-526; and "Why Do We Sometimes Get N onsense-C orrelations
between T ime-Series? A Study in Sampling and the N ature of T ime-Series,"
Journal of theR oyal Statistical Society, Vol. 89, January, 1926, pp. 1-64.
E DI T O R 'S N O T E : T he following information regarding E ugen Slutsky (E vgenil
E vgenievic Sluckil) is drawn from memorial articles written by A . N . Kolmogorov
[Uspekhi M atematicheskikh N auk, Vol. 3, N o. 4 (26), 1948, pp. 143-151] and N .
Smirnov [I zvestiica A cademiia N auk S.S.S.R ., M athematical Series, Vol. 12, 1948,
pp. 417-4201.
E ugen Slutsky was born in 1880. He studied in the department of physics and
mathematics at the University of Kiev. I n 1901 he was expelled from the university
and conscripted into the army, together with other students, because of participa-
209
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210 R . G. D. A LLE N
approximate regularity, with varying length and amplitude of oscilla-
tion, and they were very similar to many economic time series. Under
certain circumstances, the generated series could be made to approximate
very closely to a sine-curve. Slutsky's results have been of great value
in research into the problem of whether a moving-average trend distorts
the true oscillations in a series and into the wider question of the struc-
ture of economic time series. Because of the mathematical complexities
involved, the present approach to time series
analysis, by Kendall,
O rcutt, and others, is still the same as Slutsky's, a combination of deduc-
tion with experimentation on actual or (more usually) constructed
series.
Slutsky's basic article in the theory of consumer's behaviour was
earlier; it appeared under the title "Sulla teoria del bilancio del con-
sumatore" in Giornali
degli
E conomisti, 1915 [6]. He put his argument in
a highly mathematical form, without much elaboration of the economic
significance of his results, and he was unfortunate in that he published
in wartime. C onsequently, like another mathematical article on the same
topic by Johnson,2 his work received little notice at the time. I t was only
rediscovered in the middle 1930's by those then developing the theory
and measurement of consumer's demand. E ven Henry Schultz did not
discover Slutsky's article until around 1934, and he included an account
of it in his "I nterrelations of Demand, Price and I ncome"3 in 1935.
I ndependently, though a little later, Hicks and I were led back to Slut-
sky's original work by various references to it, and I
published a sum-
mary of it in the R eviewof E conomic Studies in 1936.4
I t can be said, without doubt, that the present theory of consumer's
behaviour, as developed by Hicks and others, is essentially as much a
tion in student revolts, but was returned to the university as a result of further
student protests in the country. I n 1902, however, he was again expelled and de-
prived of the right to study in any R ussian institution of higher learning. From
1902 to 1905 he studied in the engineering department of the I nstitute of T ech-
nology at M unich, Germany. I n 1905 he received permission to study in R u3sia
and entered the department of law, University of Kiev, with the intention of ap-
plying mathematical methods to economics. He graduated from the university
with a gold medal in 1911. He became a member of the faculty at Kiev I nstitute
of C ommercein 1913, reaching the position of full professor in 1920. T hree years
earlier he received a degree in political economy from the University of M oscow.
From 1926 on, he was a staff member of the C entral Statistical Board in M oscow.
I n 1934 he became a staff memberof the M athematical I nstitute of the University
of M oscow, and in 1938became a member of the M athematical I nstitute of the
A cademy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R . Slutsky died M arch 10, 1948,in M oscow.
2 "T he Pure T heory of Utility C urves," E conomicJournal, Vol. 23, December,
1913,pp. 483-518.
3
Journal of Political E conomy, Vol. 43, A ugust, 1935, pp. 433-481.
4"Professor Slutsky's T heory of C onsumers' C hoice," R eview of E conomic
Studies, Vol. 3, February, 1936, pp. 120-129.
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T HE WO R K O F E UGE N SLUT SKY 211
development of Slutsky's work as of Pareto's. Quantities demanded
by an individual consumer as functions of given prices and income are
given by the conditions for an extreme value of an ordinal utility func-
tion. T he stability conditions, for a maximum as opposed to a minimum,
then serve to determine the properties of the demand functions, i.e.,
the variation of demand with changing prices and income. A good deal
of confusion of thought has arisen because of the fact that the restraint
set by the condition of given total expenditure is linear and homogene-
ous in the variables (prices and income). A proportionate increase in all
prices with income fixed is equivalent to a decrease in income with all
prices fixed, each corresponding to a decrease in real income, i.e., a shift
to a lower level on the consumer's preference scale. Slutsky's achieve-
ment was to show that any change in prices and income must be ana-
lysed into two parts. T he first is a change in relative prices with fixed
real (not money) income. T his is the substitution effect and the con-
sumer maintains a given indifference level. T he second part is the balance
of the price change (a proportionate shift in all prices), which can be
translated into an equivalent change in income and added to whatever
change there may be in money income to give the variation in real in-
come. T his is the income effect and the consumer shifts from one indif-
ference level to another. T he two effects turn out to be independent and
additive, as indeed is intuitively clear.
T here are two equivalent ways of attacking the problem. For the
substitution effect, real (not money) income is kept fixed eitherby taking
the utility level constant and minimising expenditure for each set of
market prices or by adding a compensating change in money income to
given price changes in order to maintain the original indifference level.
I n the analysis of the income effect, either the minimised expenditure
can be compared with actual money income or the actual change in
money income can be adjusted for the compensating income change.
T he second was the method adopted by Slutsky, and it is certainly the
easier to develop and
expound.
With Hicks's notation,5 n commodities are demanded in amounts xr
at prices
pr
(r
=
1, 2, * * * , n) and with income M . A
given
direction of
price change is denoted by the differentials dp,, and the compensating
income change to maintain the indifference level is
n
dM
=
E x, dps.
8=1
T he change in demand for the rth
commodity
is
dxr
=
E
O Xrdp, + dX dM ,
,8= &9p8
am
6
J. R . Hicks, Valueand C apital, second edition, O xford: C larendon Press, 1946.
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R . G. D. A LLE N
i.e.,
.-, p
,
X .
X dp ,
T his is the variation in demand for a
compensated price change,
and
the
expressions [(O xr/dp,)
+
x,(O xr/O p,)] represent
the substitution ef-
fect. T hese
expressions
were first defined
by Slutsky
and
analysed by
him in terms of the
utility
functions. He termed them residual varia-
tions in demand for a
compensated
variation in
price.
A s
Slutsky showed,
the substitution
expressions (residual variations)
are limited in various
ways by
the conditions for
equilibrium
and for
stability.
What is now
seen,
after much
development
of the basic Slut-
sky theory,
is that the limitations boil down to one
equation
and one
inequality:
n n
(1) pr dxr
=
0; E dprdXr
<
.
T he first
(derived
from
equilibrium conditions) expresses
the fact
that,
if there are
compensated price changes,
then some demands rise and
others fall. T he second is one
consequence
of the
stability
conditions.
I f
only
one
price (pr) changes (say, increases),
then dxr <
0, i.e.,
a
single
compensated price
increase results in a reduced demand for the commod-
ity.
T he demands for other commodities
may
rise or
fall,
but at least
one must rise. I f more than one
price changes, nothing
definite can be
said about the direction of
change
of
any particular
demand. A ll in-
equality (1) says
is
that, very broadly,
demand falls tend to be asso-
ciated with
prices
which have risen
relatively
to others.
Slutsky
himself did not reach this
conclusion;
it is the
development
of a
theory originated by Slutsky.
A s so often
happens,
the line to
advance in the end
appears
to have been a
spiral.
For we find we can
say very
little in
general
about the variation of
demand,
and what we
can
say
is
simple. M oreover,
the results turn out to be derivable di-
rectly,
without the mathematical
scaffolding
erected so
painfully,
and
they
can be extended to
apply
to
any price changes
and finite differences
and not
only
differentials. T ake
any
two situations on the same indif-
ference level
(i.e.,
a
compensated price change),
the first with
purchases
Xrat
prices pr,
the second with
purchases (xr + A xr)
at
prices (pr
+ A pr).
T he second
purchases
must cost more than the first if both are reckoned
at the first
prices (since
the first
purchases
are
actually
made at these
prices),
and
similarly
at the second
prices:
n n
E Pr(Xr
+ A Xr) >
prXr;
r-l
r-1
212
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T HE WO R K O F E UGE N SLUT SKY
(t (Pr> (p + A p( + A r)r
>
+ A ,
n n
r-1 r-1
(2)
prA rg>
o; ;A p.A
<
a O .
rl r X
T he
limiting
form of
(2)
is
(1),
and
(2)
is called
by
Hicks the
generalised
law of demand. T he
difficulty
is to determine
exactly
what
compensating
change
in
money
income is needed to maintain the
given
indifference
level. I f this
change
is
A M ,
then all that can be said is:
E r-l
A pr(xr
+
A xr)
< A M <
E r+l xA pr, so A M
-=-i_
xLA p, only approximately
and
only
if all
changes
are small.
Samuelson
goes
even
further,
in Foundations
of
E conomic
A nalysis,
1947,6
and
suggests
that the
theory
can be divorced
entirely
from in-
difference levels and
expressed only
in terms of "revealed
preferences."
His basic condition of consistent consumer behaviour is:
n n
I f E
p,A xr ,
then
(pr
+ A pr)A Xr
< O .
r-1 r 1
I n
particular:
n n
(3)
I f
p,A x,r
=
0,
then
A p,A x,
< 0.
r-l r=l
I n
(3),
which
replaces (2),
there is
implied
a
compensating
income
change
n n
A M
=
A pr (x +
A xr)
<
xrA pr.
r-1
r=l
T his
compensation
is not to maintain the consumer at a
given
indiffer-
ence level
(the
indifference
map having
been discarded from the
theory);
it is to
keep
him on the
original price plane, i.e.,
to
keep
him to
pur-
chases which could have been made with the
original prices
and in-
come. T he
limiting
form of
(3)
is
again
(1).
Slutsky
wrote before his time and his was the contribution of a
mathematician. But the
concept
of
compensated price changes
which
he introduced has become so well established that it dominates the
theory
of consumer's behaviour. T here is little to
say
about the income
effect;
it is
generally positive,
but can be
negative,
and it is
possible
to
estimate its value from economic data. I t is the substitution effect
which interests the economist and
puts
the
problems up
to the econo-
metrician.
I t is unfortunate
that,
for so
long
before his
death, Slutsky
was
8
C ambridge,
M ass.: Harvard
University
Press.
213
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214 R . G. D. A LLE N
almost inaccessible to economists and statisticians outside R ussia. He
opened up new areas but left them to be explored by others, and the
exploration even now is far from complete. His assistance, or at least
personal contacts with him, would have been invaluable.
London School of E conomics
BI BLI O GR A PHY
T his bibliography of the writings of E ugen Slutsky is based on a list compiled
by N . S. C hetverikov and included in the memorial article by A . N . Kolmogorov
(see E ditor's N ote).
[1] "T heory of C orrelation and the E lements of the T heory of Distribution
C urves" (in R ussian), Papers of the Kiev I nstitute of C ommerce, Vol. 16,
1912; also issued separately, Kiev, 1912, iv + 208 pp.
[2] "E ssence and Form of C ooperatives" (in R ussian), Spravochni Kalendar
Zemledeltsa for 191S, Kiev, 1912, pp. 1-15.
[3] R eview of A . A . M arkov's E xampleof a Statistical A nalysis of theT ext of E ugen
O negin, Listing a C onnection of O bservationsin a C hain (St. Petersburg,
1913) (both in R ussian), Kievskaya M ysl, 1913.
14] "Sir William Petty-Brief A ccount of His E conomic Views, Supplemented by
Some I mportant Passages from His Works" (in R ussian), Students' Bulle-
tin of the Kiev I nstitute of C ommerce, N os. 16-17, 1914, pp. 5-48.
[5] "O n the C riterion of Goodness of Fit of the R eg-ression Lines and on the Best
M ethod of Fitting T hem to the Data," Journal of the R oyal Statistical So-
ciety, Vol. 77, N o. 1, 1914, pp. 78-84.
[6] "Sulla teoria del bilancio del consumatore," Giornaledegli E conomisti, Vol.
51, July, 1915, pp. 1-26.
[7] "Statistics and M athematics" (R eview of A . A . Kaufman's T heory and
M ethodsof Statistics) (both in R ussian), Statisticheski Vestnik, Vols. 3-4,
1915-16, pp. 1-17.
[8] "O n an E rror in the A pplication of a C orrelation Formula" (in R ussian),
Statisticheski Vestnik, Vols. 3-4, 1915-16, pp. 18-19.
[9] "O n the Logical Foundations of the T heory of Probability" (in R ussian),
Paper presented at a meeting of the Section of T heoretical Statistics of the
T hird R ussian Statistical C ongress, N ovember, 1922, Vestnik Statistiki,
Vol. 12, 1922, pp. 13-21; also in Volumein M emory of N . A . Kablukov, M os-
cow, 1925, Vol. I , pp. 254-262.
[10] "O n C ertain M odels of C orrelative C onnection and on a Systematic E rrorin
the E mpirical Value of the C orrelation C oefficient" (in R ussian), Vestnik
Statistiki, Vol. 13, 1923, pp. 31-50.
[11] "O n a N ew C oefficient of the M ean Density of Population" (in R ussian),
Vestnik Statistiki, Vol. 14, 1923, pp. 5-19; also in M emoirsof the Ukrainian
A cademy of Sciences-Socio-E conomic Section, Kiev, Vol. 1, 1923, pp. 138-
150.
[12] "C alculation of State R evenue from the I ssue of Paper M oney" (in R ussian),
M iestnoyeKhoziaistvo, Kiev, N o. 2, N ovember, 1923 (A ddendum to a paper
by L. N . Yasnopolsky, "O ur M onetary C irculation During the R evolu-
tion").
[13] "M athematical N otes to the T heory of the I ssue of Paper M oney" (in R us-
sian), E conomicBulletin of C onjunctureI nstitute, M oscow, N os. 11-12, 1923,
pp. 53-60.
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T HE WO R K O F E UGE N SLUT SKY 215
[141 "O n an A ttempt to C onstruct a T heory of A verages without the A id of the
T heory of Probability" (R eviewof V. I . R omanovsky's E lementary T reatise
on the T heory of A verages, T ashkent, 1924) (both in R ussian), Vestnik
Statistiki, Vol. 20, 1925, pp. 103-124.
[15] "O n the Question of the Law of Large N umbers" (in R ussian), Vestnik
Statistiki, Vol. 22, 1925, pp. 1-55.
[16] R eview of V. I . R omanovsky's E lements of the T heoryof C orrelation (T ash-
kent, 1923) (both in R ussian), I nformation Bulletin of the UKR M I E T , N os.
10-12, 1925.
1171 "Ueber stochastische A symptoten und Grenzwerte," M etron, Vol. 5, De-
cember 1,1925, pp. 3-89.
[18] "tYber die zufiillige zyklische A nordnung paarweise gleicher E lemente,"
Zeitschrift fur angewandteM athematik und M echanik, Vol. 6, 1926, pp. 150-
159.
[19] "E in Beitrag zur Formal-praxeologischen Grundlegung der O ekonomik,"
Ukrainian A cademy of Sciences-Socio-E conomic Section, Kiev, Vol. 4,
1926, pp. 3-12.
[20] "tYberstochastische A symptoten und Grenzwerte," T heT 6hoku M athematical
Journal, Vol. 27, July, 1926, pp. 67-70.
[21] "A . A . T schuprow," O bituary in Zeitschrift fur angewandteM athematik und
M echanik, Vol. 6, A ugust, 1926, pp. 337-338.
[22] "Zur Kritik des B6hm-Bawerkschen Wertgriffs und seiner Lehre von der
M essbarkeit des Wertes," SchmollersJahrbuch faur
Gesetzgebung; Verwaltung
und Volkswirtschaft im Deutschen R eiche, Vol. 51, N o. 4, 1927, pp. 37-52.
[23] "T he Summation of R andom C auses as the Source of C yclic Processes" (in
R ussian), in Problemsof E conomic C onditions, edited by T he C onjuncture
I nstitute, M oscow, Vol. 3, N o. 1, 1927, pp. 34-64 (with E nglish summary,
pp. 156-160).
[24] "Ueber einen Fall wo das Gesetz der grossen Zahlen auf von einander ab-
hiangigeGr6ssen A nwendung findet," T he T 6hoku M athematical Journal,
Vol. 28, June, 1927, pp. 26-32.
[25] "Sur un th6orO melimite r6latif aux sdriesdes quantit6s dventuelles," C ompte
rendu des seances de l'A cademiedes Sciences, Vol. 185, July 18, 1927, p. 169.
[26] "Sur un crit6rium de la convergence stochastique des ensembles de valeurs
6ventuelles," C ompterendu des seances de l'A cad6mie des Sciences, Vol.
187, July 17-A ugust 13, 1928, p. 370.
[27] "Sur les fonctions 6ventuelles compactes," A tti dei C ongresso I nternazionale
dei M atematici, Bologna, Vol. 6, September 3-10, 1928, pp. 111-115.
[28] "Sur les fonctions 6ventuelles continues, int6grables et d6rivables dans le
sens stochastiques," C ompterendu des seances de l'A cademie des
Sciences,
Vol. 187, N ovember 12, 1928, p. 878.
[29] "Quelques propositions sur les limites stochastiques 6ventuelles," C ompte
rendu des stances de l'A cademie des Sciences, Vol. 189, September 2, 1929,
p. 384.
[30] "Sur l'erreur quadratique moyenne du coefficient de corrdlation dans le cas
des suites des 6preuves non ind6pendantes," C ompte
rendu des stances de
l'A cademiedes Sciences, Vol. 189, O ctober21, 1929, p. 612.
[31] "Sur l'extension de la th6orie de p6riodogrammes aux suites de quantit6s
d6pendantes," C ompterendu des seances de l'A cad6mie des Sciences, Vol.
189, N ovember 4, 1929, p. 722.
[32] "O n
the Standard E rrorof the C orrelation C oefficient in the
C ase
of
Homoge-
neous C oherent C hance Series, (in R ussian), Papers of
the
C onjuncture
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216 B. G. D. A LLE N
I nstitute, M oscow, Vol. 11, 1929, pp. 64-101 (with E nglish summary, pp-
150-154).
[33] "O n the Distribution of the E rror of the C orrelation C oefficient in Homoge-
neous C oherent C hance Series" (in R ussian), Journal Geofiziki, Vol. 2,
N o. 1, 1932, pp. 66-8.
[34] "O n the E xistence of a C orrelation between the Solar C onstant and the
T emperature" (in R ussian), Journal Geofiziki, Vol. 3, N o. 3, 1933, pp.
263-281.
[35] "A lcune applicazioni dei coefficienti di Fourier all'analisi delle funzioni
aleatorie stazionarie," Giornale dell'I stituto I taliano degli A ttuari, Vol.
5,
O ctober, 1934, pp. 3-50.
[36]
"T en Years of R esearch in Statistical Geophysics (1924-1933)" (in R ussian),
Published as a mimeographed manuscript by the I nstitute of E xperimental
Hydrology and M eteorology, M oscow, 1934, with a list of the author's
publications relating to geophysics.
[37]
"O n the Question of the Solar C onstant" (in R ussian), Journal Geofiziki,
Vol. 4, N o. 3, 1934, pp. 392-399.
[38] "O n the E leven-Year Periodicity of Sun Spots (in R ussian), Papers of the
A cademy of Sciences of theU.S.S.R ., Vol. 4 (9), N os. 1-2 (70-71), 1935, pp.
37-40.
[39] "Statistical E xperiment as a M ethod of R esearch" (C ritical E ssays on tha
"E arth-Sun" Problem) (in-R ussian), Journal Geofiziki, Vol. 5, N o. 1, 1935,
pp. 18-38.
[40] "O n the Question of E xtrapolation in C onnection with the Problem of Prog-
nosis" (in R ussian), Journal Geofiziki, Vol. 5, N o. 3, 1935, pp. 263-279.
[41] "O n C onnected R andom Functions of O ne I ndependent Variable" (in R us-
sian), Paper presented at the First A ll-Union C ongress of M athematicians
(Kharkov, 1929), in Proceedingsof the First A ll-Union C ongressof M athe-
maticians, M oscow and Leningrad, 1936, pp. 347-357.
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