2014.3.10 - 2014.3.

16

A.Yatsenyuk

(G8)

(BOJ)

2
2%

(ECB)
2016 1.21.5
1.8 1.0 1.1
(M.Draghi)
2

1 3
3
1
(BOK)(RBNZ)
(BOJ) 2

(V. Putin)

(Crimea)
(B. H.Obama)

2 (Fed)
(Beige Book) 1 2

2 0.8%
2

(ECB)
0.4% 0.5%

2014 7.5% 3.5%

FOMC

FOMC

Mar-14

3/10~11

3/18~19

3/6

3/27

Apr-14

4/7~8

4/29~30

4/2-

4/3

6/26

Thomson Reuters

3/11

3/12

3/13

3/14

3/16

US

Jan

Wholesale Inventories MoM

Japan

Feb

Consumer Confidence Index

--

40.5

EU

Jan

Industrial Production SA MoM

0.40%

-0.70%

Japan

Jan

Machine Orders MoM

8.40%

-15.70%

EU

0.50%

0.30%

ECB Publishes Monthly Report

US

7-Mar

Initial Jobless Claims

--

--

US

28-Feb

Continuing Claims

--

--

US

Feb

Import Price Index MoM

0.70%

0.10%

US

Feb

Import Price Index YoY

--

-1.50%

US

Jan

Business Inventories

0.40%

0.50%

NZ

Mar

RBNZ Official Cash Rate

2.75%

2.50%

US

Mar P

81.7

81.6
-1.10%

Univ. of Michigan Confidence

EU

Feb

CPI MoM

--

EU

Feb F

CPI YoY

--

--

EU

Feb F

CPI Core YoY

--

1.00%

3 2%

Bloomberg
TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

ISM3 2 (ISM)

53.2 1 51.3

(Beige Book) 1 2

54.5 51.2
48.2 54.8 2009 5
52.32

Markit 2

12

12 8

2014

PMI 57.1 53.7

2 ISM
2010 2 51.6 1 54

47.5 1
56.4 2011 12 50
54.6 1 56.3 50.9 51.3

64
62

(J.Yellen)

60

58

56

54

52
50

J. Williams

48
11

12
ISM-Manufacturing

13

14

ISM- Non Manufacturing

(ISM)

R.Fisher QE
QE
QE
3
3 18~19
(FOMC)

2
17.5
2

1 2

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

37%
0.5%
(M.Carney)

ECB BOE

2 0.8%
2

(ECB)

0.4% 0.5%

(H. Van Rompuy)

(ECB)(BOE) 3/6

2.5%

2009 3 0.5%

2012

(G8)

(M. Draghi)

ECB 2016

2012

1.21.5 1.8 1.0

3,360 75%

2016 1.7% 2%

(A.Merkel) (V. Putin)

EURO Area Benchmark Interest Rate (%)

0.75

0.5

150
0.25

0
13

14

Thomson Reuters

(IMF)
(World Bank)

EURO Area Inflation Rate (%)

A.Deshchytsya 3

2.5
2

114 LTRO

1.5
1

114

0.5

(Long-Term Refinancing Operation, LTRO)

0
12

13

14

Thomson Reuters

(excess liquidity) 31.33 LTRO

82.68 LTRO

3,750

40% 12

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

 1 2 3,454

1 3,070 79%
19

(Park Geun-Hye)
(Lee Ju-Yeol)
(Kim Choong-Soo) 4

(2013)

1 1
16.7% 5 5,167 11
30.3% 7 8,620 15
(
311 )

61

J-Curve

1977

2007

2009-2012 2012

2013 GDP

CPI
3/10 2013

GDP2013 Q4 GDP 0.3%

Fed QE

0.2% 1.0% 0.7%

GDP 0.4%
5 0.8% 3
4.1% 2.1%
3.5% 0.4%

FTA

3/10 3/11

FTA
3/4

(Woo Tae-Hee)

12
10

6
4

Modality

2
0
-2
-4

-6
-8
-10

3/10 2014 1
1 5,890

GDP Chg (%QoQ)

GDP Chg (%YoY)

3,484 356%
1985 1

Thomson Reuters

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

4,373.7 (2013) 12 2,728.8

1,644.9 29.07

3/4 14 350 28 500 3/6

3/5
2014

14 430 28 500 (3/3~3/7)

1,080 700

7.5% 3.5%

3/7
6.1271 6.101 3/7
6.12.1 2 3

2 CPI 12

(1)
CPI
3.5%

6.17
6.15
6.13
6.11

3/9 (2014) 2

6.09

(2013) 2%

6.07

0.5%

6.05

6.03

2.7% 1% CPI 0.9%

19.7% CPI 0.5%

6.01
CNY

CNH

8.2%8% 4.4% 3.2%

2 20%

2 2%
24

CPI FPI PPI (%)

3/8 (2014) 2

12

2,512 (1) 1,312

4.79% 230 1,141

2,000
(2013) 20%

1,371 9.9%
0

(%)
-4
12

CPI

13

FPI

PPI

14

40
30

20
10
0

-10

-20

6 3

-30
12

13
Export

3/5 (2014) 1

14
Import

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

210

(OSU)

()
2%
3%

(capital

conservation

buffer

&

countercyclical capital buffer)

26
3 6

26

3/5

RQFII ETF

OBUOSU

2008

921

2001 2,875
2008
0.36%
320% 12%ROA ROE
0.68% 10.26%(2013)
2,576

(Know Your Customer ,KYC)

( %)

14

350

12

300

10

250

200

150

100

50

0
07

2% 1999 5%

08

09

10

11

12

13

Earnings before Tax (RHS)

ROA (LHS)

ROE (LHS)

NPL ratio (LHS)

BIS CAR (LHS)

Coverage ratio (RHS)

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

5
(%)

CPI

3.1
2.9

(Philippine Statistics Authority) 2

2.7

CPI 4.1% 6

2.5

4.3%(2011 11 )
(Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) 3.8%-4.6%

2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7

2 CPI
(The Ministry of Commerce of the Kingdom of
Thailand) 3/3 2 CPI 1.96%

1.5
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Thomson Reuters

1 12.2%

1 1.93%2 CPI 1.22% 1 1.08%

CPI (Bank of Thailand)
0.5% 3.0%

7 1 12.2%
639.7 9% 2013
12 14.4%1

2 (The Wall Street

Journal) 2 1.912

7.2% 576.2
12 95.9 1 63.6

1 0.2
2014
2.0 2.8

(Economist Intelligence Unit) 2014

PMI

Worldwide Cost of Living

1 51 2
50.5
1 52.1 2 51
6

140 160

400

100
130

3%
(Bank Negara Malaysia) 3/11
3% 13

7
5%
5
12%

1600cc.
184
3
Altis 11 330
3.5

2012

AMMB Holdings

51,000 540

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

2014 2 0.9% 22.4%

(RBA) 2.5%
RBA
1
2013
RBA

2013 9.7%
(ANZ Bank) 3/5 2014 2
337.4 1
0.9% 2013 11 3
22.4% 17 9
4 4
1 7% 6%

RBA 3/4
2.5%RBA Glenn Stevens
RBA

3/3 (Statistics New

Zealand) 2013
2.3% 2% 1973

9.7% 8%

(ABS) 3/6

2014 1
14.3 142%

1 1.2% 11
0.4%

(Bank of Canada)
1%

ABS 3/5 2013

0.8% 2.8% 0.7%2.5%

Bank of Canada 3/5

0.8%

1%

2.4% 8.8%

2010 9

9.7% 2010

Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz

10%

Bank of Canada 2014

2%

RBA

2013

Bank of Canada 2014

2.5%

RBA

RBA

Bank of Canada

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

Mexico Government Bond 10Y (%)

7
6.5

Moody s

Moodys A3
A

5.5

4.5

Moodys Enrique Pena Nieto

Baa1
A3 2012

4
12

13

14

Thomson Reuters

2 3 3 4

Pena Nieto

(FED)

Peso 3/5

2014 1

13.3310 1 13.2725 3/7

13.15103/5 10 13 BP
6.52 2013

2014 2 ( 14 )
3 1,800 2014/1/1 2/14

Standard and Poor's Fitch Ratings

Intercam

20 40

2014/2/14
33 2,000

USDMXN

15

14

6% 7.5% 5%

13

194
3

12

11
12

13

14

Thomson Reuters

100 500 126

2014 1
2
1 4%

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

 12/10

150
1/3

2013 Gazprom 1 400

(Crimea)
3/3 12%
600

12 268.5
58%

3/3 6 7% 120

66%

15%

36%

USD RUB

2013 GDP

37

1.3 2012 3.4

36

75%

35

34

33

32
31

30
29
Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Thomson Reuters

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100
Oct-12

A.Yatsenyuk
Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Thomson Reuters

50%

(G8)

Gazprom 3

2
50%

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

10

10

3/6 10
8.305% 3/7 1%10
7 8.375% 2026

6 8.515 2015
(SouthAfrica)Jo Fubbs 3/9

6.5 7.01

10

9
8.8
8.6

8.4
8.2

7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

(Rand)
Thomson Reuters

3/7
3/7

12.9 17.5
(Fed)

(Kenya)(Uhuru Kenyatta)

3/7 20%
1 1/29

18 10%

() 3/6
10.551/

13,900 ( 120

3/7

(shilling))(William Ruto) 12,742

10.714/ 1

9,266

5,756

11.4
11.2

(Central
African Republic)

11
10.8
10.6

10.4
10.2

10

9.8

9.6
Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Thomson Reuters

(Bangui)(Valerie Amos)
9 10

10

2 4

10 3
TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

11

1.99% 1,483
1.16% 1,349.3

0.28% 21.47 QE
(EIA)

2013 12 4,300

(bbl/d)

4,000 (bbl/d)

30%
( / )

2000

50

1800

45

1600

40

1400

35

1200

30

0.17% 108.76

1000

25

800

20

0.04% 102.5

600

15

400

0.22% BTU()4.63
20 60

10
10

11

(LHS)

12

13

(LHS)

14
(RHS)

Thomson Reuters

(/) HH (/MMBTU)
130

5.5

120

110

Resource Economics and SciencesABARES)

4.5

2014/15

ABARES 2014/15 2,479.5

3.5

2,701.3 8.2%

100
90

(Australian Bureau of Agricultural

80

2.5

70

2
10

11
12
(LHS)
HH(RHS)

13
14
(LHS)

Thomson Reuters

5,300
5,450
8.59% 6.54
3
5.50%
6 4.89

0.2

95 35.4 98

3.09% 14.5775

37.4 32.7

( / )

19

19

17

17

15

15

13

13

11

11

Barrick
Gold Corp. Jamie Sokalsky
Barrick Gold Corp.

3
10

11

12

13

14

Thomson Reuters
TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

12

8714.0

0.9%

0.9%

1.2%

16452.7

0.8%

0.8%

0.1%

S&P 500

1878.0

1.0%

1.0%

2.5%

NASDAQ

4336.2

0.7%

0.7%

4.7%

FTSE

6712.7

-1.4%

-1.4%

-0.1%

DAX

9350.8

-3.5%

-3.5%

-0.5%

225

15274.1

2.9%

2.9%

-4.0%

1974.7

-0.3%

-0.3%

0.4%

22660.5

-0.8%

-0.8%

-2.9%

2154.4

0.1%

0.1%

-2.4%

0.3733

4.9bp

4.9bp

-1.1bp

Daily QUS10YT=RR, QUS2YT=RR

Yield
Line, QUS10YT=RR, Bid Yield(Last)
2014/3/10, 2.7788
0.5
Line, QUS2YT=RR, Bid Yield(Last)
2014/3/10, 0.3694
0.48

2.7897

14.0bp

14.0bp

-20.1bp

Yield

2.9
2.8
2.7788

0.46

2.7

0.44

2.6

0.42

10

2013/1/28 - 2014/3/31 (EST)

2.5

0.4
0.38
0.3694
0.36

2.4
2.3

0.34

2.2

0.32
2.1

0.3

0.1565

1M LIBOR

0.2357

3M LIBOR

0.1bp
0.0bp

0.1bp
0.0bp

-1.2bp
-0.7bp

0.28
0.26

1.9

0.24

1.8

0.22

1.7

0.2
Auto

USD/TWD

30.302

-0.2%

-0.2%

1.1%

EUR/USD

1.3876

0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

GBP/USD

1.6711

-0.2%

-0.2%

1.6%

USD/JPY

103.25

1.4%

1.4%

-0.9%

EUR/JPY

143.29

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

USD/KRW

1064.2

-0.2%

-0.2%

1.3%

USD/CNY

6.1258

-0.3%

-0.3%

1.2%

Auto

2013 Q1

2013 Q2

2013 Q3

2013 Q4

2014 Q1

102.69

-0.1%

-0.1%

7.6%

110.04

0.2%

0.2%

1.4%

1339.85

1.1%

1.1%

9.4%

Thomson Reuters

Thomson Reuters

Major Currencies Forecasts

Q2 14

Q3 14

Q4 14

Q1 15

2015

2016

2017

2018

EURUSD

1.33

1.31

1.29

1.27

1.27

1.27

1.28

1.27

USDJPY

106

108

110

110

115

102

101

USDTWD

30.2

30.2

30.0

30.2

30.0

106
--

--

--

USDCNY

6.02

6.00

5.97

5.95

5.90

--

1065

1060

1054

1050

1030

5.83
--

5.7

USDKRW

--

--

AUDUSD

0.87

0.86

0.86

0.88

0.85

0.87

0.84

0.80

GBPUSD

1.63

1.61

1.60

1.61

1.62

1.64

1.64

1.65

DXY

82.8

84.3

85.3

79.7

85.6

--

--

--

Bloomberg
TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

13


2014 (2014/3/12)

(2014/3/13)

2014 (2014/3/26)
()

()

-( 4 ) 2014/3/24~2014/4/2

( 29 ) 2014/3/24~2014/4/2
EQ

( 1 ) 2014/3/25
CEO

( 8 ) 2014/3/26~2014/3/28

( 2 ) 2014/3/26~2014/4/23

( 1 ) 2014/3/29

TABF | (10088) 62 / (02)3365-3666

14