EENS 3050 Natural Disasters

Tulane University Prof. Stephen A. Nelson

Natural Disasters & Assessing Haar!s an! "is#

This page last updated on 20-Aug-2013

Natural Hazards and Natural Disasters
A natural hazard is a threat of a naturally occurring event will have a negative effect on
humans. This negative effect is what we call a natural disaster. In other words when the
hazardous threat actually happens and harms humans we call the event a natural disaster.
!atural "azards #and the resulting disasters$ are the result of naturally occurring processes that
have operated throughout %arth&s history.
'ost hazardous process are also (eologic )rocesses.
(eologic processes effect every human on the %arth all of the time *ut are most
noticea*le when they cause loss of life or property. If the process that poses the hazard
occurs and destroys human life or property then a natural disaster has occurred. Among
the natural hazards and possi*le disasters to *e considered are+

%arth,ua-es
.olcanic %ruptions
Tsunami
/andslides
0u*sidence

1loods
2roughts
"urricanes
Tornadoes
Asteroid Impacts

All of these processes have *een operating throughout %arth history *ut the processes
have *ecome hazardous only *ecause they negatively affect us as human
*eings. Important Point -There would be no natural disasters if it were not for
humans. Without humans these are only natural events.
3is- is characteristic of the relationship *etween humans and geologic processes. 4e
all ta-e ris-s everyday. The ris- from natural hazards while it cannot *e eliminated can
in some cases *e understood in a such a way that we can minimize the hazard to
humans and thus minimize the ris-. To do this we need to understand something a*out
the processes that operate and understand the energy re,uired for the process. Then we
can develop an action to ta-e to minimize the ris-. 0uch minimization of ris- is
called hazard mitigation.
Although humans can sometimes influence natural disasters #for e5ample when poor
levee design results in a flood$ other disasters that are directly generated *y humans
such as oil and to5ic material spills pollution massive automo*ile or train wrec-s
airplane crashes and human induced e5plosions are considered technological disasters
and will not *e considered in this course e5cept when they occur as a secondary result
of a natural disaster.


0ome of the ,uestions we hope to answer for each possi*le natural disaster are+
4here is each type of hazard li-ely to *e present and why6
4hat scientific principles govern the processes responsi*le for the disasters6
"ow often do these hazards develop into disasters6
"ow can each type of disaster *e predicted and7or mitigated6

As discussed *efore natural disasters are produced *y processes that have *een operating since
the %arth formed. 0uch processes are *eneficial to us as humans *ecause they are responsi*le
for things that ma-e the %arth a ha*ita*le planet for life. 1or e5ample+
Throughout %arth history volcanism has *een responsi*le for producing much of the
water present on the %arth&s surface and for producing the atmosphere.
%arth,ua-es are one of the processes responsi*le for the formation of mountain ranges
which which direct water to flow downhill to form rivers and la-es.
%rosional processes including flooding landslides and windstorms replenishes soil and
helps sustain life.
Such processes are only considered hazardous when they adversely affect humans and
their activities.
Classification of Natural Hazards and Disasters
!atural "azards and the natural disasters that result can *e divided into several different
categories+
(eologic "azards - These are the main su*8ect of this course and include+
%arth,ua-es
.olcanic %ruptions
Tsunami
/andslides
1loods
0u*sidence
Impacts with space o*8ects
Atmospheric "azards - These are also natural hazards *ut processes operating in the
atmosphere are mainly responsi*le. They will also *e considered in this course and
include+
Tropical 9yclones
Tornadoes
2roughts
0evere Thunderstorms
/ightening
:ther !atural "azards - These are hazards that may occur naturally *ut don&t fall in to
either of the categories a*ove. They will not *e considered to any great e5tent in this
course *ut include+
Insect infestations
2isease epidemics
4ildfires
!atural "azards can also *e divided into catastrophic hazards which have devastating
conse,uences to huge num*ers of people or have a worldwide effect such as impacts with
large space o*8ects huge volcanic eruptions world-wide disease epidemics and world-wide
droughts. 0uch catastrophic hazards only have a small chance of occurring *ut can have
devastating results if they do occur.
!atural "azards can also *e divided into rapid onset hazards such as .olcanic %ruptions
%arth,ua-es 1lash floods /andslides 0evere Thunderstorms /ightening and wildfires which
develop with little warning and stri-e rapidly. Slow onset hazards li-e drought insect
infestations and disease epidemics ta-e years to develop.

Anthropoenic Hazards
These are hazards that occur as a result of human interaction with the environment. They
includeTechnological Hazards which occur due to e5posure to hazardous su*stances such as
radon mercury as*estos fi*ers and coal dust. They also include other hazards that have formed
only through human interaction such as acid rain and contamination of the atmosphere or
surface waters with harmful su*stances as well as the potential for human destruction of the
ozone layer and potential glo*al warming.

!ffects of Hazards
"azardous process of all types can have primary secondary and tertiary effects.
Primary Effects occur as a result of the process itself. 1or e5ample water damage during
a flood or collapse of *uildings during an earth,ua-e landslide or hurricane.
Secondary Effects occur only *ecause a primary effect has caused them. 1or e5ample
fires ignited as a result of earth,ua-es disruption of electrical power and water service as
a result of an earth,ua-e flood or hurricane or flooding caused *y a landslide into a
la-e or river.
Tertiary Effects are long-term effects that are set off as a result of a primary event. These
include things li-e loss of ha*itat caused *y a flood permanent changes in the position of
river channel caused *y flood crop failure caused *y a volcanic eruption etc.

"ulnera#ility to Hazards and Disasters
.ulnera*ility refers the way a hazard or disaster will affect human life and property
.ulnera*ility to a given hazard depends on+
)ro5imity to a possi*le hazardous event
)opulation density in the area pro5imal to the event
0cientific understanding of the hazard
)u*lic education and awareness of the hazard
%5istence or non-e5istence of early-warning systems and lines of communication
Availa*ility and readiness of emergency infrastructure
9onstruction styles and *uilding codes
9ultural factors that influence pu*lic response to warnings
In general less developed countries are more vulnera*le to natural hazards than are
industrialized countries *ecause of lac- of understanding education infrastructure *uilding
codes etc. )overty also plays a role - since poverty leads to poor *uilding structure increased
population density and lac- of communication and infrastructure.
"uman intervention in natural processes can also increase vulnera*ility *y
2evelopment and ha*itation of lands suscepti*le to hazards 1or e5ample *uilding on
floodplains su*8ect to floods sea cliffs su*8ect to landslides coastlines su*8ect to
hurricanes and floods or volcanic slopes su*8ect to volcanic eruptions.
Increasing the severity or fre,uency of a natural disaster. 1or e5ample+ overgrazing or
deforestation leading to more severe erosion #floods landslides$ mining groundwater
leading to su*sidence construction of roads on unsta*le slopes leading to landslides or
even contri*uting to glo*al warming leading to more severe storms.
Affluence can also play a role since affluence often controls where ha*itation ta-es place for
e5ample along coastlines or on volcanic slopes. Affluence also li-ely contri*utes to glo*al
warming since it is the affluent societies that *urn the most fossil fuels adding 9:
2
to the
atmosphere.
Assessin Hazards and $is%
"azard Assessment and 3is- Assessment are2 different concepts;
Hazard Assessment consists of determining the following
when and where hazardous processes have occurred in the past.
the severity of the physical effects of past hazardous processes #magnitude$.
the fre,uency of occurrence of hazardous processes.
the li-ely effects of a process of a given magnitude if it were to occur now.
and ma-ing all this information availa*le in a form useful to planners and pu*lic
officials responsi*le for ma-ing decisions in event of a disaster.

$is% Assessment involves not only the assessment of hazards from a scientific point of view
*ut also the socio-economic impacts of a hazardous event. 3is- is a statement of pro*a*ility that
an event will cause 5 amount of damage or a statement of the economic impact in monetary
terms that an event will cause. 3is- assessment involves
hazard assessment as a*ove
location of *uildings highways and other infrastructure in the areas su*8ect to hazards
potential e5posure to the physical effects of a hazardous situation
the vulnera*ility of the community when su*8ected to the physical effects of the event.
3is- assessment aids decision ma-ers and scientists to compare and evaluate potential hazards
set priorities on what -inds of mitigation are possi*le and set priorities on where to focus
resources and further study.


Prediction and &arnin
3is- and vulnera*ility can sometimes *e reduced if there is an ade,uate means of predicting a
hazardous event.
Prediction
)rediction involves+

A statement of pro*a*ility that an event will occur *ased on scientific o*servation
0uch o*servation usually involves monitoring of the process in order to identify some
-ind ofprecursor event(s) - an anomalous small physical change that may *e -nown to
lead to a more devastating event. - %5amples+
"urricanes are -nown to pass through several stages of development+ tropical
depression - tropical storm - hurricane. :nce a tropical depression is identified
monitoring allows meteorologists to predict how long the development will ta-e
and the eventual path of the storm.
.olcanic eruptions are usually preceded *y a sudden increase in the num*er of
earth,ua-es immediately *elow the volcano and changes in the chemical
composition of the gases emitted from a volcanic vent. If these are closely
monitored volcanic eruptions can *e often *e predicted with reasona*le
accuracy.
'orecastin
0ometimes the word <forecast< is used synonymously with prediction and other times it is not.

In the prediction of floods hurricanes and other weather related phenomena the word
forecast refers to short-term prediction in terms of the magnitude location date and
time of an event. 'ost of us are familiar with weather forecasts.
In the prediction of earth,ua-es the word forecast is used in a much less precise way -
referring to a long-term pro*a*ility that is not specific in terms of the e5act time that the
event will occur. 1or e5ample+ )rior to the :cto*er 1= 1>?> /oma )rieta %arth,ua-e
#also -now as the 4orld 0eries %arth,ua-e$ the @.0. (eological 0urvey had forecast a
A0B pro*a*ility that a large earth,ua-e would occur in this area within the ne5t 30
years. %ven after the event the current forecast is for a C3B pro*a*ility that a ma8or
earth,ua-e will occur in this area in the ne5t 30 years.
!arly &arnin
A warning is a statement that a high pro*a*ility of a hazardous event will occur *ased on a
prediction or forecast. If a warning is issued it should *e ta-en as a statement that <normal
routines of life should *e altered to deal with the danger imposed *y the imminent event<.
The effectiveness of a warning depends on+
The timeliness of the warning
%ffective communications and pu*lic information systems to inform the pu*lic of the
imminent danger.
The credi*ility of the sources from which the warning came.
If warnings are issued too late or if there is no means of disseminating the information then
there will not *e time enough or responsiveness to the warning. If warnings are issued
irresponsi*ly without credi*le data or sources then they will li-ely *e ignored. Thus the people
responsi*le for ta-ing action in the event of a potential disaster will not respond.

're(uency of Natural Disasters
Again it is important to understand that natural disasters result from natural processes that
affect humans adversely.
'irst - Size )atters
1or e5ample+

"umans coe5ist with rivers all the time and *enefit from them as a source of water and
transportation. :nly when the volume of water in the river *ecomes greater than the
capacity of the stream channel is there a resulting disaster.
0mall earth,ua-es occur all of the time with no adverse effects. :nly large earth,ua-es
cause disasters.
Second * +ocation, location, location
1or e5ample+

A volcanic on an isolated uninha*ited island will not result in a natural disaster.
A large earth,ua-e in an unpopulated area will not result in a disaster.
A hurricane that ma-es landfall on a coast where few people live will not result in a
disaster.
0o what we have to worry a*out is large events that stri-e areas where humans live.
Thus in natural hazards studies it is important to understand the relationship *etween
fre,uency of an event and the size of the event. 0ize is often referred to a magnitude.
1or 8ust a*out any event statistical analysis will reveal that larger events occur less fre,uently
than small events.
0tatistical analysis of some types of events for specific locations allow one to determine
the return period or recurrence interval.

%5amples+
Flood Frequency -
1or any river high
discharge events are rare.
/arge discharge events
occur much less
fre,uently than small
discharge events.
Meteorite Impacts -
Although we as humans have not had the opportunity #fortunately$ of o*serving large asteroid
or meteorite impacts the data suggest that impacts of large asteroids #1 -m or larger$ occurs
only once every 10 million years.


Earthquakes -
As we have 8ust noted large earth,ua-es occur much less fre,uently than smaller earth,ua-es.
Those with magnitudes greater than ?.A only occur once every 3 years on the average #see Ta*le
3.3 in your te5t or http+77www.iris.edu7h,7gallery7photo710CC$
Is the 're(uency of Natural Disasters Increasin-
Are natural disasters *ecoming more fre,uent as it seems from news reports of recent activity6
The short answer appears to *e that yes natural disasters are increasing in fre,uency
#seehttp+77maps.grida.no7go7graphic7trends-in-natural-disasters. Dut this suggests some other
important ,uestions *efore we start ma-ing conclusions a*out the end of the world+
1. Is the fre,uency of hazardous events increasing6
2. 4hy is the fre,uency of natural disasters increasing #what could e5plain the trend$6
1irst Is the fre,uency of hazardous events increasing6 This is much more difficult to answer
since natural events responsi*le for natural disasters have *een occurring throughout the E.A
*illion year history of the %arth. !evertheless there is no evidence to suggest that hazardous
events are occurring more fre,uently.
4hat a*out glo*al warming6 There is evidence to suggest that weather related disasters are
*ecoming more fre,uent compared to other disasters li-e earth,ua-es. 1or e5ample the
fre,uency of disasters from tropical cyclones and floods has *een increasing the fre,uency of
earth,ua-es has changed little. Although this is what we e5pect from glo*al warming there is
not yet enough statistical data to prove this right now.
0econd is there another e5planation for the the fre,uency of natural disasters increasing6 1irst
consider the following facts+
"uman population has *een increasing at an e5ponential rate. 4ith more people vulnera*ility
increases *ecause there are more people to *e affected *y otherwise natural events.
"uman population is moving toward coastal areas #see http+77www.livescience.com7E1C=-
floc-ing-coast-world-population-migrating-danger.html$. These are areas most vulnera*le to
natural hazards such as tropical cyclones tsunami and to some e5tent earth,ua-es.
:ur a*ility to communicate news of natural disasters has *een increasing especially since the
invention of the internet. %arlier in human history there may have *een 8ust as many disasters
*ut there were few ways the news of such disasters could *e communicated throughout the
world.
'eanwhile+
2eaths from natural disasters has decreased in developed countries and increased in developing
countries. 4hat could e5plain this6 )olitics6 %conomics6 9ultural 2ifferences6 %ducation6
The cost of natural disasters has *een increasing in developed countries. 4hat could e5plain
this6 %conomics6
.his Course
This course is not a*out the political cultural or economic aspects of natural disasters.
It is a*out the science of natural disasters and how can use our -nowledge of the scientific
aspects of disasters to reduce the death and destruction caused *y otherwise natural events.
!/amples of (uestions on this material that could #e as%ed on an e/am
1. 2efine and give e5amples of each of the following types of hazard #a$ geologic hazard
#*$ atmospheric hazard #c$ catastrophic hazard #d$ rapid onset hazard #e$
anthropogenic hazard #f$ slow oneset hazard .
2. %5plain how poverty and affluence can play a role in increasing vulnera*ility to natural
hazards.
3. 4hat is the difference *etween hazard assessment and ris- assessment6
E. 4hat factors determine the effectiveness of warning systems6
A. %5plain the difference *etween primary secondary and tertiary effects of possi*le
hazards.
C. 4hat is the relationship *etween size of natural events disasters and fre,uency of
disasters6 4hat is the concept of recurrence interval6
=. 4hat might *e responsi*le for the apparent increase in recent years of the num*er of
natural disasters and the economic losses due to natural disasters6