The 14

th
FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
MOTORCYCLIST ACCEPTABILITY ON ROAD SAFETY
POLICY: MOTORCYCLE EXCLUSIVE LANE IN
MAKASSAR

Arifin Asri
Doctoral Student
Graduate School of Civil Eng.
Civil Eng. Depart. of UNHAS
Jln. Perintis K Km10, Tamalanrea
Kampus Universitas Hasanuddin
Makassar, Sul-Sel, 90145
Telp: (0411) 587 636
arifinasri@gmail.com
Muhammad Isran Ramli
Head Lector
Transport. System & Eng. Lab.
Civil Eng. Depart. of UNHAS
Jln. Perintis K Km10, Tamalanrea
Kampus Universitas Hasanuddin
Makassar, Sul-Sel, 90145
Telp: (0411) 587 636
muhisran@yahoo.com
Lawalenna Samang
Professor
Graduate School of Civil Eng.
Civil Eng. Depart. of UNHAS
Jln. Perintis K Km10, Tamalanrea
Kampus Universitas Hasanuddin
Makassar, Sul-Sel, 90145
Telp: (0411) 587 636

samang_l@yahoo.com

Abstract
This paper attempts to describe motorcyclist acceptability on implementation of motorcycle exclusive lane as
a road safety policy in Makassar, Indonesia. The survey was conducted on three main roads as pilot project
location of the policy in the city. In order to grasp the motorcyclist acceptability, the multinomial logit model
was adopted. In this regard, motorcyclist acceptability became response variables, while motorcyclist
perception, socio-demographic condition, and trip characteristics were explanatory variables. The results
show that the model was acceptable according to the log-likelihood ratio indicator. Further, motorcyclists
perception to the policy becomes the more significant variable in context the policy implementation. We
expect that the result provides a basis for expansion model in further study in order to grasp motorcyclist
perception to traffic safety policies. In addition, the result could become input for policy makers on preparing
and implementing for the policy and others transportation safety policies in the future.

Key Words: Motorcyclist acceptability, road safety, policy, exclusive lane.


INTRODUCTION
In the two last decades, motorcycle safety constitutes an increasingly significant in many
Asian developing countries. For example, motorcyclists contributed more than 60% of the
road injuries on Malaysian roads (Radin et al., 1996). In Thailand, 76% of the injured
accident victims are either motorcycle drivers or passengers (Hossain, 2006). Especially in
Indonesia, during 2003-2007 there were 70% of road accidents involved with motorcycles
in Bali (Wedagama and Dissayake, 2010a; 2010b).

Responding those situations, many efforts remain to be made. One of the engineering
approaches to overcome the motorcycle accident problem is segregating other road users
from motorized traffic through an exclusive motorcycle lane that is restricted to
motorcyclists with physical barriers and or markings. The effort has been implementing on
Malaysian road (Law and Radin, 2005). In Indonesia, this road safety policy has been tried
to be implemented in many big cities in Indonesia, such as, Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Makassar,
etc. during January in 2007. However, the implementation was only pilot project in order
to introduce the policy to road users. Many reasons why the policy could not be continued
to established yet, such as readiness of the road lane construction, perception and
acceptability of not only for motorcyclists but also for other road users, etc.
The 14
th
FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Regarding the acceptability of the motorcyclist on the exclusive motorcycle lane in order
to reduce motorcycle accident, this paper attempts to describe motorcyclist acceptability on
implementation of the traffic safety policy in Makassar, Indonesia. In this regard, a
multinomial logit model approach is used to describe relationship between acceptability
motorcyclist as response variable and some predictor variables.

This paper begins with a review of previous studies and then presents methodological
approach. This is followed by a description of data and model estimation results of the
acceptability motorcyclist on the exclusive lane policy. Finally, the paper provides discussion
related to the result and concludes.


LITERATURE REVIEW
Previous research on motorcycle accident in developing countries has primarily focused on
the issues of the effectiveness of rider equipment safety, i.e. helmet on reducing head
injury severity (Chang, 2005), the investigation of influence factors caused motorcycles
accident and injuries (Wedagama and Dissayake, 2010a; 2010b), medical investigation of
motorcycles accidents (Hossain and Iamtrakul, 2007), causality cost of motorcyclists
slight injury (Widyastuti, 2007), and comfortability of excluxive lane for motorcycle (Law
and Radin, 2005).

Most of those previous studies have used logit model approach in order to describe those
issues. For example, Wedagama and Dissayake (2010a; 2010b) developed logistic
regression in case of multinomial logit model to describe the influence of accident related
factors on road fatalities in Bali, Indonesia. As well as, Chang (2005) used the multinomial
logit model to analyze effectiveness of mandated motorcycle helmet in Taiwan.

Due to the several similarities on behavioral characteristic of motorcyclist in developing
countries, those past studies have provided valuable empirical insights and analysis
methodologies for this study.


METHODOLOGY
Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model
Multinomial logit model or logistic regression modelis one of model approaches to
represent relationship between response (dependent) variable (Y) that categorical and one
or more predictor variables (X) that not only categorical but also continual. When the
dependent variable consist of more than two category, i.e. Y = 1 (success) and Y = 0
(otherwise), then multinomial logit model model could be applied.

Furthermore, the categories of the dependent variable result in Y follow the Bernoulli
distribution. The probability function of the Y with parameter is stated as below:

( )
y y
y Y P

= =
1
1 ) ( (1)
Where y = 0, 1
The 14
th
FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Then, probabilities of each categories are P(Y=1) = and P(Y=0) = 1 with E(y) = , for
01.

Generally, probability of the logistic regression that deal with n predictor variables could
be formulated as follows (Ramli et al., 2010):

( )
) ... (
) ... (
2 2 1 1 0
2 2 1 1 0
1
n n
n n
x x x
x x x
e
e
x y P


+ + + +
+ + + +
+
= (2)

Where xn is a vector of observed variables that represent relevant attributes to dependent
variable, Y.
n
is parameter of x
n
that should be estimated, and
0

is a specific constant of
the model.
This study uses the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model to grasp the relationships between
acceptability level of motorcyclist as response variable and some identified factors.

Variable specification
Specification of variables that taking account in this research is shown by Table 1. The
table shows that the response variable (motorcyclist acceptability) is categorized into 4
categories, i.e. very accepted, accepted, abstain, and un-accepted. Furthermore, the
predictor variables that considered in this study include safety perception, age, education,
income, origin place of trip, and destination place of trip.

Table 1 Variable and Its Attitude
Variable Type Variable Title Attribute/Attitude Variable
1. Motorcyclist
acceptability
Y
0 = Very Accept;
1 = Accept;
2 = Abstain
3 = Un-accept
2. Safety perception
Safperc1
Safperc2
Safperc3
1 = Feel safe; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Abstain; 2= Otherwise
1 = Un-feel safe; 2 = Otherwise
3. Age (years old) X
1. 12 2. 12 15 3. 15 18
Ag

4. 18 25 5. 25 55 6. 55
4.Education
Educ1
Educ2
Educ3
Educ4
Educ5
1 = University; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Senior high school; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Junior high school; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Elementary school; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Training; 2 = Otherwise
5. Income (Rp.1x10
6
X )
1. 0.5 2. 0.5 1.0 3. 1.0 1.5
In

4. 1.5 2.0 5. 2.0
6. Origin place
Origplc1
Origplc2
Origplc3
Origplc4
1 = Home; 2 = Otherwise
1 = School; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Office; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Shopping place; 2 = Otherwise
7. Destination place
Destplc1
Destplc2
Destplc3
Destplc4
1 = Home; 2 = Otherwise
1 = School; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Office; 2 = Otherwise
1 = Shopping place; 2 = Otherwise
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Parameters estimation of the multinomial logit model
This study adopted maximum likelihood theory in order to estimate the parameter values of
the multinomial logit model. The procedure to estimate maximum likelihood value
involves development of a joint probability density function of the observed sample, called
the likelihood function, through estimation of parameter values which maximize the
likelihood function. The likelihood function in case T observation face j categories results is
defined as follows (Koppelman and Bhat, 2006):

( ) ( ) ( )
jt
T t j j
jt
P L




=

(5)

Where
jt
is chose indicator (=1 if j is happen by observation t and 0, otherwise) and P
jt

is
the probability when the observation t give event j. The solution in order to maximize the
log-likelihood function is the second derivation of the function with respect to . In this
study, the parameters values of the model are estimated by using statistical package
software, i.e. SPSS Version 16.0.
Data Collection
This study used data from a survey result that conducted by Indonesian Society of
Transportation, Branch of South Sulawesi in January 2007. The survey was carried out in
order to measure motorcyclists perception and their acceptability on a pilot project
implementation of a road safety policy, namely exclusive lane for motorcycle in Makassar,
South Sulawesi, Indonesia.

The survey was conducted at three primary roads, i.e. Yani Street, Sudirman Street, and
Pettarani Street, where the pilot project of the policy had been socialized by traffic police
and local government of the city. The survey took two hours duration in order to survey
randomly 500 motorcyclists on each the road. On the survey, the surveyor stopped the
motorcyclists who were passing on the exclusive lane for motorcycle, to the road side, then
interviewed them about their socio demography, origin-destination trip, and perception and
acceptability on the exclusive lane policy. The location of three streets where the survey
conducted is shown by Figure 1.

Sudirman Street
Yani Street
Survey Location:
Makassar Map
Pettarani Street

Figure 1 The Location of Road Side Survey
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Data Description
The data description related to characteristic of motorcyclist is provided in Figure 2. While
acceptability level of motorcyclist related to their characteristics is shown by Figure 3.
8
8
3
3
0
8
8
7
0
0
49
99
6
1
0
236
350
58
28
2
10
25
6
4
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
University
Senior High School
Junior High School
Elementary School
Training
Percentage of Each Age Category (%)
E
d
u
c
a
t
i
o
n

L
e
v
e
l
<= 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 25 25 - 55 >= 55

25
73
24
8
0
66
217
37
18
1
99
123
9
3
1
59
52
3
2
0
53
20
2
1
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
University
Senior High
School
Junior High
School
Elementary
School
Training
Percentage of Each Income Level in IDR. x 10^6 (%)
E
d
u
c
a
t
i
o
n

L
e
v
e
l
<= 0.5 0.5 - 1.0 1.0 - 1.5 1.5 - 2.0 >= 2.0

a. Education Level vs. Age Category b. Education Level vs. Income Level
132
55
114
102
52
7
11
13
104
11
86
48
91
2
35
35
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Home
School
Of f ice
Shopping
Percentage of Each Origin Trip (%)
D
e
s
t
i
n
a
t
i
o
n

T
r
i
p
Home School Of f ice Shopping

146
264
48
24
1
58
110
11
3
0
98
111
16
5
1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
University
Senior High
School
Junior High
School
Elementary
School
Training
Percentage of Safety Perception (%)
E
d
u
c
a
t
i
o
n

L
e
v
e
l
Feel saf e Abstain Feel un-saf e

Figure 2 Motorcyclist Characteristics on the Study Location
c. Destination Trip vs. Origin Trip d. Education Level vs. Safety Perception
14
23
7
3
0
153
284
43
20
1
47
72
6
5
0
88
106
19
4
1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
University
Senior High School
Junior High School
Elementary School
Training
Percentage of Each Acceptability Level (%)
E
d
u
c
a
t
i
o
n

L
e
v
e
l
Very Accept Accept Abstain Un-accept

0
0
1
1
45
1
0
11
27
82
381
31
1
5
4
22
98
3
1
4
13
50
150
10
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
<= 12
12 - 15
15 - 18
18 - 25
25 - 55
>= 55
Percentage of Each Acceptability Level (%)
A
g
e

C
a
t
e
g
o
r
y

(
Y
e
a
r
s
)
Very Accept Accept Abstain Un-accept

a. Education Level vs. Acceptability b. Age Category vs. Acceptability
7
19
9
7
5
69
183
148
56
45
17
58
30
16
9
37
79
48
37
17
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
<= 0.5
0.5 - 1.0
1.0 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
>= 2.0
Percentage of Each Acceptability Level (%)
I
n
c
o
m
e

L
e
v
e
l

(
I
D
R
.

x
1
0
^
6
)
Very Accept Accept Abstain Un-accept

39
379
31
34
5
70
71
36
3
52
28
148
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very Accept
Accept
Abstain
Un-accept
Percentage of Safety Perception (%)
A
c
c
e
p
t
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f

t
h
e

P
o
l
i
c
y
Feel saf e Abstain Feel un-saf e

c. Income Level vs. Acceptability d. Safety Perception vs. Acceptability
Figure 3 Acceptability of Motorcyclist to Variety of Its Characteristics
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Figure 2a shows that the motorcyclist majority in the study location has age 25 55 years
olds for all each education level. In aside, Figure 2a shows that dominant of the
motorcyclist has income IDR 0.5 1.0 x 10
6
for all each education level. However, there is
also significantly motorcyclist that has income IDR 1.0 1.5 x 10
6
on university and senior
high school level, and less than or equal IDR 0.5 x 10
6

on the other education levels.
Furthermore, Figure 2c shows that amount large of motorcyclist as respondent have home
as their origin trip for all destination trip categories. Also, there is significant number of
motorcyclist having office as their origin trip. In addition, Figure 2d shows that the
majority of motorcyclist feel safe as impact of the exclusive lane policy implementation.
However, a significant number of the motorcyclist fells unsafe even the policy has been
implemented.
Figure 3a shows that majority of motorcyclist of the each education level accepted the
implementation of exclusive lane policy. However, there was significant number of the
motorcyclist that un-accepted the traffic safety policy. Similarly, majority of motorcyclists
in each age and income level categories accepted the policy as shown by Figure 3b and
Figure 3c respectively. In addition, Figure 3d shows that the safety perception of
motorcyclists on the policy is in line with their acceptability level.

Table 2 provides additional information on the mean, standard deviation, skewness, and
kurtosis of the explanatory variables.

Table 2 Descriptions of Variable Data
Variable Type
Variable
Title
Mean Std. Deviation Skewness Kurtosis
Percept_Lane


Feel_Safe Safperc1 1.461 0.499 0.157 -1.980
Abstain Safperc2 1.797 0.403 -1.478 0.186
Un-feel_Safe Safperc3 1.742 0.438 -1.109 -0.771
Age
X
Ag

36.433 8.809 -0.693 0.395
Income
X
In

1.102 0.521 0.826 -0.342
Education


University Educ1 1.663 0.473 -0.691 -1.527
Senior_High_School Educ2 1.459 0.499 0.166 -1.977
Junior_High_School Educ3* 1.916 0.277 -3.011 7.084
Elementary_School Educ4* 1.964 0.186 -5.012 23.173
Training Educ5* 1.998 0.047 -21.130 445.491
Origin


Home Origplc1 1.550 0.498 -0.202 -1.963
School Origplc2* 1.907 0.290 -2.815 5.937
Office Origplc3 1.722 0.448 -0.993 -1.016
Shopping_Place Origplc4 1.820 0.384 -1.671 0.795
Destination


Home Destplc1 1.577 0.494 -0.312 -1.907
School Destplc2* 1.916 0.277 -3.011 7.084
Office Destplc3 1.728 0.445 -1.025 -0.952
Shopping_Place Destplc4 1.779 0.415 -1.347 -0.185
Note: * The variable was removed due to its data do not follow a normal distribution
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Model Estimation Result
According to normal distribution test of data at significant level 95%, the skewness and
kurtosis values should be in the range -2.58 2.58 to assess a data group has normal
distribution, we removed 5 variables on Table 2 (i.e.: education-3 (Junior high school),
education-4 (elementary school), education-5 (training), origin place-2 (school), and
destination place-2 (school)) from the model estimation.

Calibration and validation of the multinomial logit model in order to estimate and assess
the parameters values of the logit model for probability of motorcyclist acceptability were
conducted in view of statistics. There were two kinds of statistical test which conducted,
i.e. significant test (i.e. p value) in order to evaluate contribution of each variable itself to
the model, and goodness of fit statistic test in order to validate the goodness of fit of the
model. Table 3 provides the parameters values and statistical indicators of the model.

Table 3 Result calculation of parameters values
Variables
of model
Parameter values of each acceptability categories
1. Very accept 2. Accept 3. Abstain

B Sig. Exp(B) B Sig. Exp(B) B Sig. Exp(B)
Constant 77.14 5E-70
1
0.000 6.77 0.024
1
0.000 3.10 0.375 0.000
Safperc1 -4.07 2E-10
1
0.017 -3.47 0.000
1
0.031 -1.61 8E-07
1
0.199
Safperc2 -1.88 0.014
1
0.153 -1.71 0.000
1
0.181 -2.38 2E-15
1
0.093
Safperc3 0.00 -
b
- 0.00 -
b
- 0.00 -
b
-
Age 0.05 0.027
1
1.053 0.01 0.336 1.012 0 0.901 1.002
Income 0.09 0.819 1.089 0.17 0.431 1.186 -0.09 0.748 0.918
Educ1 0.6 0.294 1.825 0.05 0.883 1.056 -0.3 0.521 0.742
Educ2 0.36 0.475 1.436 -0.27 0.426 0.764 -0.32 0.455 0.723
Origplc1 1.84 0.005
1
6.268 0.57 0.131
2
1.777 0.63 0.152
2
1.874
Origplc3 0.63 0.308 1.874 0.79 0.046
1
2.208 0.7 0.125
2
2.011
Origplc4 0.49 0.460 1.635 0.16 0.704 1.177 0.4 0.425 1.494
Destplc1 -15.09 8E-244
1
0.000 0.23 0.546 1.263 0.5 0.260 1.649
Destplc3 -15.37 1E-212
1
0.000 0.04 0.925 1.039 0.34 0.457 1.407
Destplc4 -16.06 0.000
1
1 E-07 -0.41 0.325 0.665 -0.05 0.917 0.951
Number of observation

896

Likelihood ratio,
2

:

- Cox and Snell 0.390
- Nagelkerke 0.438
- McFadden 0.224
Hit Ratio (%) 66.7
Note:
1
Significant at 95%,
2

Significant at 80%
b
The reference category is Un-accept on exclusive lane policy
This parameter is set to zero because it is redundant

As shown in Table 3, the "very accept" category on motorcycle acceptability model had 8
variables that produced statistically significant parameters (i.e.: constant, safety perception-
1 (feel safe), safety perception-2 (abstain), age, origin place-1 (home), destination place-1
(home), destination place-3 (office), and destination place-4 (shopping place)). The
"accept" category on the model had only 5 variables that produced statistically significant
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
parameters (i.e.: constant, safety perception-1 (feel safe), safety perception-2 (abstain),
origin place-1 (home), and origin place-3 (office)); however, the origin place-1 (home)
variable has only significant level at 80%. The "abstain" category on the model had only 4
variables that produced statistically significant parameters (i.e.: safety perception-1 (feel
safe), safety perception-2 (abstain), origin place-1 (home), and origin place-3 (office)); 2 of
these 4 variables (i.e. origin place-1 (home) and origin place-3 (office)) produced only
statistically significant level on 80%.

Furthermore, Table 3 shows that the motorcyclist acceptability model has enough good
overall statistical fit with McFadden pseudo-
2
value in the 0.2-0.4 range (0.2 is minimum
value to assess that a model is enough good (Alviansyah et al., 2005; Ramli et al., 2010)).
As well as, the Cox and Snell pseudo-
2
value and Nagelkerke pseudo-
2

value in the 0.2-
0.4 range and 0.5-0.7 range respectively. To provide additional insight, Table 3 also shows
the hit ratio value, correct percentage between observed data and predicted model, more
than 60% that indicated the model enough good to predict the motorcyclist acceptability.
Generally, perception of motorcyclist on the road safety policy became the more
significant variable in order to accept the policy than other variables such as age and
education. It means that a road safety policy have to be more socialized in order to build
positive perception on the policy, before the policy is established as permanent road safety
policy.


CONCLUSION
This paper has evaluated motorcyclist acceptability on a road safety policy, i.e.
implemented exclusive lane for motorcycle. The safety policy has been implemented as
pilot project in some main roads in big cities in Indonesia including Makassar, in South
Sulawesi Province. The policy was tried to be adopted by traffic police and government in
order to increase motorcyclist safety, irrelevant to decrease the motorcyclist accident.

This study used data from a survey result that conducted on three primary roads, i.e. Yani
Street, Sudirman Street, and Pettarani Street, where the pilot project had been implemented
in the city. The survey investigated socio demography, origin-destination trip, and
perception and acceptability of motorcyclists who were passing on the exclusive lane.

The study adopted a multinomial logit model approach in order to grasp relationship
between response variable, i.e. motorcyclist acceptability, and some predictor variables
such as socio demography variable, and motorcyclist perception on the policy. In this
regard, there are four categories of motorcyclist acceptability that considered, i.e. very
accepted, accepted, abstain, and un-accepted.

The calculation result based on the model approach showed that the model was acceptable
according to the log-likelihood and hit ratio indicators. Furthermore, perception of
motorcyclist on the road safety policy became the more significant variable in order to
implementation of the policy.
The 14
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FSTPT International Symposium, Pekanbaru, 11-12 November 2011
Finally, we expect that the model provide a basis to develop an expansion model in further
study, such as structural model of motorcyclist perception and acceptability on the road
safety policies, etc. Also we hope that this study should become input to the policy makers
on preparing and implementation not only for the policy but also for others transportation
safety policies in the future.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to express our thanks and appreciation to Mr. Muhammad Idris and his surveyor team in the
Survey Institute of Transportation and Environmental (SITE) that supported the survey activities in this
research. We also many thanks to Indonesian Transportation Society, South Sulawesi Branch and Traffic
Unit of Indonesian Police in Makassar City which allow us to access and utilized the survey data for the
purpose of this paper. Without their cooperation, this paper would not be possible to be arranged.


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