Generating Understanding of

Social, Economic and Climate

Dynamics in Interaction
Matthias Ruth
Roy F. Weston Chair in Natural Economics
Professor and Director, Center for Integrative Environmental Research
Co-Director, Engineering and Public Policy
University of Maryland
ISEE Systems User Conference, Providence, Rhode Island, October 4-6, 2010
1. The Climate Change
Research Story
2. From Global Processes
to Local Decision Making
3. Systems View
Social, Economic and Climate
Dynamics in Interaction
1. The Climate Change
Research Story
2. From Global Processes
to Local Decision Making
3. Systems View
Social, Economic and Climate
Dynamics in Interaction
o Emissions and
Repercussions
o Economic and
Social Dimensions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
Climate Dynamics
Emissions and Repercussions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
Climate Dynamics
Emissions and Repercussions
CO
2
Emissions
CO
2
Stabilization
100 - 300 Years
Temperature Stabilization
Several Centuries
Sea Level Rise due to
Thermal Expansion
Centuries to Millennium
Sea Level Rise due to
Melting Glaciers
Several Millennia
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
Climate Dynamics
Emissions and Repercussions
Climate Dynamics
Economic Dimensions
Climate Change Dynamics
Social Dimensions
1. The Climate Change
Research Story
2. From Global Processes
to Local Decision Making
Social, Economic and Climate
Dynamics in Interaction
o Mitigation and
Adaptation
Co-benefits
and Co-costs
o Urban Impacts
and Adaptation
The Mitigation-Adaptation Dichotomy
Mitigation
Global Benefits
Local Benefits
The Mitigation-Adaptation Dichotomy
Mitigation
Global Benefits
Local Benefits
Adaptation
Local Benefits
Global Benefits
The Mitigation-Adaptation Dichotomy
Mitigation
Global Benefits
Local Benefits
Adaptation
Local Benefits
Global Benefits
Substitutes
Complements
The Mitigation-Adaptation Dichotomy
Mitigation
Global Benefits
Local Benefits
Adaptation
Local Benefits
Global Benefits
Substitutes
Complements
Place-based Research and Case Studies
The State of Infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Manufacturing rarely depends on climate,
and where temperature and humidity used to
make a difference, air conditioning has
intervened. [] Finance is little affected by
climate; similarly for health care or
education, or broadcasting. [] It is really
agriculture that is affected.
Thomas Schelling (1992) Some Economics of Global
Warming, American Economic Review, Vol. 28, p. 5
The State of Infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
The State of Infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Society
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Society
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Society
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Economy
Coastal and Riverine
Flooding
Direct
Damages to
Infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Economy
Coastal and Riverine
Flooding
Direct
Damages to
Infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Economy
Coastal and Riverine
Flooding
Direct
Damages to
Infrastructure
Loss of
Economic
Performance
Transportation
Impacts
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Infrastructure and Economy
Coastal and Riverine
Flooding
Direct
Damages to
Infrastructure
Loss of
Economic
Performance
Transportation
Impacts
Public
Sector
Deficit
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Ecosystem and Human Health
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Ecosystem and Human Health
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Ecosystem and Human Health
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Ecosystem and Human Health
Cities and Climate Change
Urban Impacts and Adaptation
Climate Change as
Threat Multiplier
Need Magnifier
Information Needs for
Co-Benefit and Co-Cost Evaluations
Climate Change as
Threat Multiplier
Need Magnifier
Synching Climate
with Socioeconomic
Data and Models
Information Needs for
Co-Benefit and Co-Cost Evaluations
1. The Climate Change
Research Story
2. From Global Processes
to Local Decision Making
3. Systems View
Social, Economic and Climate
Dynamics in Interaction
o Mindsets in
Modeling and
Management
o What we really
need
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Climate Economy/
Society
Impact
Status
Change
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Climate Transp. Comm. Water Energy Health Economy/
Society
Impact
Status
Change
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Indicators
Integrated Impact
Reactions in
Public and Private
Sector
Climate Transp. Comm. Water Energy Health Economy/
Society
Impact
Status
Change
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Modeling
Decision-making
A. Separability
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Modeling
Decision-making
A. Separability
B. Paralysis
and Panic
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
Wealth
P
r
o
b
l
e
m

F
o
c
u
s

Local
Regional
Global
Mindsets in Modeling
and Management
A. Separability
B. Paralysis
and Panic
C. Progress
1. The Climate Change
Research Story
2. From Global Processes
to Local Decision Making
3. Systems View
Social, Economic and Climate
Dynamics in Interaction
o Mindsets in
Modeling and
Management
o What we really
need
What we really need...
On the Investment and Policy Side
1. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2. Promoting Adaptation to Residual Risks
What we really need...
On the Investment and Policy Side
1. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2. Promoting Adaptation to Residual Risks
3. Reducing Existing
Infrastructure Deficiencies
o Hard/Grey Infrastructure
o Green Infrastructure
o Soft Infrastructure
4. Creating Resilient Systems
What we really need...
On the Modeling Side
1. Comprehensive Systems Analysis
o Within and Across Systems
(Economy, Society, Environment)
o Within and Across Hierarchies
o Within and Across Regions
What we really need...
On the Modeling Side
1. Comprehensive Systems Analysis
o Within and Across Systems
(Economy, Society, Environment)
o Within and Across Hierarchies
o Within and Across Regions
2. Close Collaboration With Stakeholders
What we really need...
On the Modeling Side
1. Comprehensive Systems Analysis
o Within and Across Systems
(Economy, Society, Environment)
o Within and Across Hierarchies
o Within and Across Regions
2. Close Collaboration With Stakeholders
3. Institutionalization of Dynamic Modeling for
Adaptive Management
o Community of Modelers
o Suite of Models
For more information
http://www.cier.umd.edu
or
mruth1@umd.edu