Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Hdpe - Import Data & Pricing Analysis December 2013

HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
DECEMBER 2013

INDEX
Particulars Page No.

Particulars Page No.
DECEMBER REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 IMPORTANT GLOBAL NEWS 14

IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO
HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15
IMPORT DATA AVERAGE IN 2013 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15
HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS AS % OF YEARLY IMPORT IN 2013 03 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 16
MONTHLY HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS IN 2013 03 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 16
HDPE 2013 MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 17
INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 2013 05 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 17
INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 2013 06
SOURCE COUNTRY DESTINATION PORT MATRIX DECEMBER 2013 07 GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 18

PRODUCT PRICING SOUTH ASIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 19
HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 09
HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 09 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 22
M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 10
HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2013-14 23
HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11
ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 12 DISCLAIMER 24
MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 13

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HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400018, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 1

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

December Report Main Pointers

HDPE import volume increased in the month of December
The HDPE imports in the month of December accounted for 8.53% of the total HDPE imported into India in 2013
HDPE grades witnessed a rise in the monthly average prices in December
HDPE accounted for 41.63% of all PE that was imported into India in December
In December, Western India received approx. 63% of all HDPE that was imported into India; Southern India was at second spot and received
22.34% of HDPE imports.
Approx. 91% of the HDPE that was imported into India in December was sourced from the Middle East region
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE were the largest exporters of HDPE to India
JNPT among seaports and Tughlakabad ICD among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports
In December, HDPE was sourced from a total of 20 countries with 25 ports (air/sea/dry) in India being the destination points
Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside in the month of December
Nymex crude prices witnessed a net upside while Dated Brent prices witnessed a net downside in the month of December
INR witnessed a net appreciation against the USD in the month of December
Central Board of Excise & Customs notifications on import/export USD exchange rates are as follows:
Dated December 5
th
2013 : 62.30/USD (for imports) & 61.30/USD (for exports)
Dated December 19
th
2013 : 62.90/USD (for imports) & 61.90/USD (for exports)

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Introduction

HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes
1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE
finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high
resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such
as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food
containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

Import Snapshot

Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot

The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports that have taken place in 2013. The
month of December saw HDPE import level at 29833 MTS which represents a rise of 21.96% over the import volume of November. The monetary value of
HDPE imports in December stood at Rs. 287 crores which is a rise of 19.58% hike over the monetary value of HDPE that was imported in the preceding
month.

Source: GoI 2013 Import Data

HDPE 2013 Volume (MTS) M-o-M Change Value (Rs Crores) M-o-M Change
Jan 34253 -8.20% 270 -6.90%
Feb 28109 -17.94% 227 -15.93%
Mar 31391 11.68% 263 15.86%
Apr 29322 -6.59% 249 -5.32%
May 31949 8.96% 266 6.83%
Jun 33839 5.92% 285 7.14%
Jul 29801 -11.93% 266 -6.67%
Aug 25050 -15.94% 232 -12.78%
Sep 24385 -2.65% 244 5.17%
Oct 27253 11.76% 264 8.20%
Nov 24461 -10.24% 240 -9.09%
Dec 29833 21.96% 287 19.58%
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Exhibit: Import Data Average in 2013


The table gives out the average figures for HDPE imported into India in 2013. As we can see, the average import per month stands at 29137 MTS, the
average import monetary value per month is Rs. 258 crores. HDPE imports in 2013 have seen an average volume decline of 1.10% and an average
monetary value increase of 0.51% per month in 2013.

Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports as % of yearly import in 2013

The above table shows the monthly HDPE imports as a percentage of the total HDPE imported during the year. As we can see, HDPE imported into India
in the month of December constituted 8.53% of the total HDPE imported into India in 2013.

Exhibit: Monthly HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports in 2013

Volume (MTS) Volume % Value (Rs. Crores) Value %
29137 -1.10% 258 0.51%
HDPE Monthly
Averages 2013
HDPE 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Monthly imports % 9.80% 8.04% 8.98% 8.39% 9.14% 9.68% 8.52% 7.16% 6.97% 7.79% 7.00% 8.53% 100.00%
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The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE imported into India in 2013.

Among PE, the month with the highest HDPE import % share was December while the month with lowest import % share was August.

Exhibit: HDPE 2013 monthly imports region-wise breakdown


The above table lists the region-wise breakdown of HDPEs monthly imports during the year. The bulk of HDPE imported by India is sourced from the
Middle East region.
HDPE 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
APAC 7.14% 8.40% 6.00% 7.88% 5.57% 6.79% 4.43% 6.31% 4.63% 6.00% 7.12% 6.99% 6.46%
EUROPE 3.58% 1.52% 2.03% 1.06% 1.72% 2.79% 2.96% 2.69% 2.62% 1.88% 1.01% 0.65% 2.07%
MIDDLE EAST 88.37% 89.30% 90.70% 89.69% 90.75% 88.85% 91.37% 90.06% 90.88% 90.62% 91.16% 91.03% 90.18%
NORTH AMERICA 0.84% 0.53% 1.06% 1.29% 1.67% 1.44% 1.24% 0.79% 1.35% 1.07% 0.60% 1.18% 1.10%
SOUTH AMERICA 0.07% 0.24% 0.20% 0.09% 0.28% 0.13% 0.00% 0.16% 0.51% 0.43% 0.10% 0.15% 0.19%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
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Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown 2013
HDPE (MTS) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
AUSTRIA 22 0.1 22 44
BELGIUM 446 297 549 25 173 428 22 149 495 3 2584
BRAZIL 25 67 64 25 89 45 40 125 116 25 46 667
CANADA 47 113 47 45 224 41 41 23 60 642
CHINA 91 44 47 129 89 72 30 42 43 38 65 14 703
FINLAND 11 11
FRANCE 4 10 25 15 29 4 4 36 25 151
GERMANY 235 96 70 25 313 395 353 104 108 243 146 180 2269
HONGKONG 23 5 34 21 35 23 142
INDONESIA 35 105 35 88 140 88 18 88 70 88 753
IRAN 866 795 842 94 2401 2868 1152 1003 1520 2411 448 347 14745
ISRAEL 15 1 16
ITALY 0.1 11 14 74 100
JAPAN 211 293 398 319 363 266 197 307 322 409 308 351 3744
KOREA 889 585 305 1073 412 386 210 299 297 342 570 688 6055
KUWAIT 2697 2724 2840 2264 1437 2566 1934 2408 928 1390 1693 1139 24018
MALAYSIA 296 365 70 53 134 44 18 123 154 102 153 153 1663
NETHERLANDS 520 1 521
OMAN 13 36 18 68
POLAND 3 22 25
QATAR 14732 12375 9988 10971 14158 5412 8695 6144 9071 11662 10482 9455 123145
ROMANIA 12 12
SAUDI ARABIA 9153 7483 12763 9180 8946 15061 11286 10074 6790 6396 6872 13895 117900
SINGAPORE 224 319 483 462 359 537 248 136 102 475 369 402 4114
SPAIN 10 10 0.3 50 50 446 347 149 1060
SRI LANKA 16 25 11 52
SWEDEN 4 11 15 26 55 36 11 33 11 202
TAIWAN 75 80 17 75 170 561 76 51 25 149 1279
THAILAND 637 638 410 202 219 317 404 586 143 161 138 217 4069
TURKEY 15 15
UAE 2806 1725 2037 3776 2054 4158 4126 2912 3854 2838 2804 2321 35410
UK 20 9 29
USA 287 103 221 378 488 442 144 157 289 268 147 292 3217
Total 34253 28109 31391 29322 31949 33839 29801 25050 24385 27253 24461 29833
349646
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Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown 2013
HDPE (MTS) Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
AHMEDABAD Dry 402 119 925 934 870 1192 705 1089 262 921 348 946 8712
BALLABHGARH Dry 17 17 17 51
BANGALORE Dry 139 6 105 182 26 98 35 103 8 54 34 57 847
BARODA DASHRATH Dry 49 32 193 121 80 25 500
BHUSAWAL Dry 644 957 3589 1064 899 759 883 545 545 1312 11195
CHENNAI Air 1 2 2
CHENNAI Sea 2462 2993 2461 2136 3044 2335 2274 2565 2042 1726 1790 2465 28293
COCHIN Sea 643 649 1376 628 362 1196 780 1459 486 230 779 1458 10044
DADRI ALBATROSS Dry 6 151 157
DADRI CGM Dry 17 84 100
DADRI STARTRACK Dry 17 17
DELHI Air 0.2 15 11 15 18 1 61
GOA Sea 75 17 168 124 99 45 528
HARASARU GARI Dry 246 157 298 289 228 203 246 251 194 332 148 330 2921
HYDERABAD Air 1 3 4
HYDERABAD Dry 235 307 343 443 361 542 66 584 333 542 533 1228 5515
JNPT Sea 22175 17635 17087 17129 20224 20527 16309 12428 13515 15802 13388 13577 199795
KANDLA Sea 1819 732 25 27 24 72 192 2890
KANPUR JRY Dry 15 15
KOLKATA Air 0.1 0.1
KOLKATA Sea 1022 1679 1807 1153 502 999 1743 394 616 1864 617 2076 14469
LUDHIANA Dry 112 128 48 96 32 35 96 32 579
MANGALORE Sea 132 17 138 99 82 82 83 66 238 107 1043
MORADABAD Dry 17 17
MULUND Dry 20 11 31
MUMBAI Air 1 3 1 25 1 31
MUNDRA Sea 202 83 22 969 421 1497 2363 1865 3428 2253 3098 1182 17384
NAGPUR Dry 23 83 49 33 100 288
NASHIK Dry 9 4 12 5 2 3 2 9 6 52
PATPARGANJ Dry 1 4 7 2 2 3 3 3 2 8 2 35
PITHAMPUR Dry 149 74 41 263
REWARI Dry 35 34 69 18 25 18 30 35 103 99 464
TUGHLAKABAD Dry 1063 694 782 719 1254 714 1155 834 747 1320 1134 1749 12166
TUTICORIN Dry 942 463 321 1043 1752 1449 596 471 316 260 384 1077 9071
TUTICORIN Sea 2097 1579 1457 1737 1475 1667 2237 2198 1257 1376 571 1374 19023
VAPI Dry 50 345 149 501 149 291 309 50 518 309 2668
VIZAG Sea 223 32 32 128 415
Total 34253 28109 31391 29322 31949 33839 29801 25050 24385 27253 24461 29833 349646
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix December 2013

SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
BELGIUM CHENNAI 3
BRAZIL HYDERABAD 46
JNPT 13
TUGHLAKABAD 47
CHENNAI 3
JNPT 11
HARASARU GARI 74
JNPT 106
HONGKONG TUGHLAKABAD 23
JNPT 70
REWARI 18
IRAN JNPT 347
CHENNAI 41
HARASARU GARI 256
JNPT 53
PATPARGANJ 2
CHENNAI 20
JNPT 614
TUGHLAKABAD 54
CANADA
CHINA
GERMANY
INDONESIA
JAPAN
KOREA
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
AHMEDABAD 25
BANGALORE 25
CHENNAI 50
COCHIN 74
JNPT 371
MUNDRA 99
TUTICORIN 347
VAPI 149
CHENNAI 17
JNPT 136
AHMEDABAD 192
BANGALORE 32
CHENNAI 959
COCHIN 880
JNPT 5056
KOLKATA 1408
LUDHIANA 32
MUNDRA 496
TUGHLAKABAD 112
VAPI 160
VIZAG 128
KUWAIT
MALAYSIA
QATAR
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix December 2013


The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the
source countries for the month of December 2013. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
AHMEDABAD 729
BALLABHGARH 17
BARODA DASHRATH 25
BHUSAWAL 1312
CHENNAI 1050
COCHIN 330
DADRI ALBATROSS 151
DADRI CGM 84
HYDERABAD 1152
JNPT 5185
KOLKATA 272
MANGALORE 25
MUNDRA 288
TUGHLAKABAD 1172
TUTICORIN 1077
TUTICORIN 1028
SINGAPORE JNPT 402
SWEDEN JNPT 11
JNPT 75
MUNDRA 51
REWARI 23
SAUDI ARABIA
TAIWAN
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
HYDERABAD 30
JNPT 157
TUGHLAKABAD 30
CHENNAI 322
COCHIN 173
GOA 45
JNPT 814
KOLKATA 396
MANGALORE 83
MUNDRA 248
NASHIK 6
REWARI 33
TUGHLAKABAD 201
JNPT 157
REWARI 25
TUGHLAKABAD 110
THAILAND
UAE
USA
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HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance
Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades for 2013. Three month average and six month average are also provided.
HDPE witnessed a rise in prices across grades.

Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for
HDPE Film in 2013. The overall maximum and minimum prices for the year 2013
are also provided. HDPE Film prices registered a minimum price of Rs. 102.46
per Kg and a maximum price of Rs. 103.46 per Kg in December.
HDPE 2013 Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Dec 102.80 103.63 105.67 108.27 108.68
Nov 101.71 102.54 104.58 107.18 107.59
Oct 101.46 102.29 104.33 106.93 107.34
Sep 104.56 105.39 107.43 109.03 110.44
Aug 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94
Jul 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44
Jun 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61
May 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39
Apr 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20
Mar 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20
Feb 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.36
Jan 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80
3 Month Avg 101.99 102.82 104.86 107.46 107.87
6 Month Avg 100.33 101.17 103.58 105.31 106.24
HDPE Film 2013 Minimum Maximum
Dec 102.46 103.46
Nov 100.96 102.46
Oct 100.96 101.96
Sep 103.96 104.96
Aug
Jul 94.46 95.96
Jun 89.46 91.46
May 84.96 86.96
Apr 84.96 86.46
Mar 86.46 88.96
Feb
Jan 83.96 86.96
2013 Overall 83.96 104.96
87.96
95.96
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Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices. The month of December saw an increase in
prices considering monthly averages.

HDPE 2013 Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Dec 1.07% 1.06% 1.04% 1.02% 1.01%
Nov 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%
Oct -2.96% -2.94% -2.89% -1.93% -2.81%
Sep 8.96% 8.85% 7.46% 8.51% 8.34%
Aug 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%
Jul 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%
Jun 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%
May 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% -0.09% 0.21%
Apr -2.28% -2.26% -2.18% -2.41% -2.15%
Mar -0.18% -0.18% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17%
Feb 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%
Jan 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%
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Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year
time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Dec 2012 = Rs. 81.46 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of Dec 2013 = Rs. 103.46 per Kg
% Price change in 1 year = 27.01%

Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a
three year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Dec 2010 = Rs. 63.51 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of Dec 2013 = Rs. 103.46 per Kg
% Price change in 3 years = 62.90%

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Exhibit: Ethylene India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in the beginning of Dec 2013 = 1415 USD per MT
Ethylene price at the end of Dec 2013 = 1470 USD per MT
% price change in Dec 2013 = 3.89%

Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside in the month of December.
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Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),
LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET
(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the
value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India
price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk
Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQ
Film; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

2013 HDPE LDPE LLDPE PP PVC PS PET EVA
Jan Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Feb Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Mar Down Up Up Down Up Up Down Up
Apr Down Down Down Down Down No Change Down Down
May Up Up Up Up Down Down No Change Down
Jun Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Jul Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Aug Up Up Up No Change No Change Up Up Down
Sep Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Oct Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down
Nov Up Down Down Down Down Down Down Up
Dec Up Up Up Up Up No Change No Change Up
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Important Global News

PTT Global Chemical is in plans to shut its high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in
Thailand informed that the plant is likely to be shut in Q1, 2014 for a maintenance turnaround. The schedule and duration of the turnaround could
not ascertained. Located in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year.

Fujian Refining &Petrochemical (FREP) has restarted its HDPE/LLDPE swing plants following maintenance and debottlenecking. A Polymerupdate
source in China informed that the company restarted the plant on December 22, 2013. The plant was shut in mid-October 2013. Located in
Fujian, China, the plants had a combined production capacity of 800,000 mt/year. Following the debottlenecking exercise, the capacity has been
expanded by 100,000 mt/year to 900,0000 mt/year.

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

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Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum
Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

HDPE Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 490 490 490 490
GAIL 700 700 700 700
HPL 550 550 550 550
IOCL 475 475 475 475
OPAL --- 720 720 720
BPCL 155 155 155 155
Ethylene Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 1840 1840 3240 3240
GAIL 1000 1000 1000 1000
HPL 670 670 670 670
IOCL 857 857 857 857
BPCL - Assam GC 220 220 220 220
OPAL 0 1100 1100 1100
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Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference 2013 India Country Report (A:Actual, E:Estimate)

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot. HDPE registered a 9% growth in 2012; this is likely to increase to 12% and 14% in 2013
and 2014 respectively.

Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply


The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India. As we can see, PE recorded a growth of 12% in 2012 and likely to maintain the momentum in 2013
and 2014.

HDPE (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
HDPE Capacity 1513 1740 1740 1740 1900
LLD/HD Capacity 847 1007 1007 1007 1175
Total Capacity 2360 2747 2747 2747 3075
Production 1108 1462 1414 1464 1588
Imports 449 332 449 536 646
Exports 88 242 171 100 61
Apparent Demand 1469 1552 1692 1901 2173
Demand Growth (%) 9.50% 5.70% 9.00% 12% 14%
ALL PE (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 2578 2965 2965 2965 3293
Production 1992 2399 2332 2548 2746
Imports 1087 972 1323 1455 1707
Exports 95 265 176 121 86
Apparent Demand 2984 3106 3479 3881 4366
Demand Growth (%) 9.40% 4.10% 12% 12% 12%
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Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply


The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario. Operating rate is expected to increase from 83% in 2012 to 86% in 2013 and expected to
touch 90% in 2014.

Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability


All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.

Ethylene (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 3826 4080 4080 4080 5180
Production 2827 3355 3744 3735 4421
Imports 109 36 23 50 25
Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Net Availability 2936 3391 3767 3785 4446
Polymers (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 7905 8467 8907 9447 9875
Production 6358 7102 7434 8116 8867
Operating Rate 80% 84% 83% 86% 90%
Imports 2104 2099 2552 2793 3136
Exports 792 1089 1027 996 965
Net Trade -1313 -1010 -1525 -1797 -2171
Apparent Demand 7670 8113 8959 9913 11037
Demand Growth% 12% 5.80% 10% 11% 11%
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GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12
2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth
rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

5 Year Plan Parameter HDPE Ethylene CAGR
Capacity Creation 9.20% 9.00%
Demand 10.90% 7.00%
Capacity Creation 11.10% 12.90%
Demand 9.20% 12.40%
13th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2016/17 -
2021/22)
Demand 9.00% 0.80% Projected
Actual
11th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2005/06 -
2011/12)
12th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2011/12 -
2016/17)
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South Asia Import Duty Structure

Products Basic Duty %
Countervailing
Duty (CVD) %
Education Cess
on CVD %
Special
Additional Duty
(SAD) %
TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
LLDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Homopolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Copolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
GPPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HIPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PVC 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PET 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
INDIA
Products Basic Duty % VAT %
Advance Income
Tax (AIT)
Advance Trade
VAT (ATV)
TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 5 15 5 3 28
LLDPE 5 15 5 3 28
HDPE 5 15 5 3 28
PP-Homopolymer 5 15 5 3 28
PP-Copolymer 5 15 5 3 28
GPPS 5 15 5 3 28
HIPS 5 15 5 3 28
PVC 5 15 5 3 28
PET 5 15 5 3 28
BANGLADESH
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Products
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
PAL (Port &
Airport
Development
Levy) %
Nation Building
Tax (NBT) %
VAT % TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 0 5 2 12 19
LLDPE 0 5 2 12 19
HDPE 0 5 2 12 19
PP-Homopolymer 0 5 2 12 19
PP-Copolymer 0 5 2 12 19
GPPS 0 5 2 12 19
HIPS 0 5 2 12 19
PVC 0 5 2 12 19
PET 0 5 2 12 19
SRI LANKA
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
VAT %
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
VAT %
LDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
LLDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
HDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PP-Homopolymer 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PP-Copolymer 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
GPPS 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
HIPS 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PVC 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PET 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
Products
If imported from India If imported from countries other than India
TOTAL DUTY % TOTAL DUTY %
NEPAL
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Data collected from various sources
Products
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
Sales Tax % Income Tax % TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 5 17 5 27
LLDPE 5 17 5 27
HDPE 5 17 5 27
PP-Homopolymer 5 17 5 27
PP-Copolymer 5 17 5 27
GPPS 15 17 5 37
HIPS 15 17 5 37
EPS 15 17 5 37
PVC 10 17 5 32
PAKISTAN
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Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while
the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

INR value against the USD in the beginning of Dec 2013 = 62.22 per USD
INR value against the USD at the end of Dec 2013 = 61.89 per USD
% value change in Dec 2013 = -0.53% (appreciation)

Dated Brent price in the beginning of Dec 2013 = 111.45 USD per barrel
Dated Brent price at the end of Dec 2013 = 110.80 USD per barrel
% price change in Dec 2013 = -0.58%

Nymex crude price in the beginning of Dec 2013 = 93.82 USD per barrel
Nymex crude price at the end of Dec 2013 = 98.42 USD per barrel
% price change in Dec 2013 = 4.90%

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India GDP Growth Projections 2013-14

Data collected from various sources

Organization GDP Growth
Goldman Sachs - September 2013 4.0%
JP Morgan - September 2013 4.1%
CLSA - September 2013 4.2%
Barclays - September 2013 4.7%
ADB - October 2013 4.7%
World Bank - October 2013 4.7%
CRISIL - September 2013 4.8%
Fitch - September 2013 4.8%
RBI - October 2013 4.8%
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We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at info@polymerupdate.com.

Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such
information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.
Please refer to Notification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals is owned by the Planning Commission,
Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.
Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have
attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We
have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are
difficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;
hence some totals/subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness
or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any
expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of
this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Hdpe - Import Data & Pricing Analysis December 2013

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