Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Hdpe - Import Data & Pricing Analysis JANUARY 2014

HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
JANUARY 2014

INDEX
Particulars Page No.

Particulars Page No.
JANUARY REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 HDPE OFFERS 14

IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO
HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15
HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 15
HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 03 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 16
INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 16
INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 05 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 17
SOURCE COUNTRY DESTINATION PORT MATRIX JANUARY 2014 06 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 17

PRODUCT PRICING GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 18
HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 08
HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 09 SOUTH ASIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 19
M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 09
HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 10 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 22
HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 10
ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 11 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2013-14 23
MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 12
DISCLAIMER 24
IMPORTANT GLOBAL NEWS 13

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HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400018, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 1

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

January Report Main Pointers

HDPE import volume increased in the month of January
HDPE grades witnessed a rise in the monthly average prices in January
HDPE accounted for 35.45% of all PE that was imported into India in January
Approx. 91% of the HDPE that was imported into India in January was sourced from the Middle East region
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE were the largest exporters of HDPE to India
JNPT among seaports and Bhusawal ICD among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports
In January, HDPE was sourced from a total of 20 countries with 25 ports (air/sea/dry) in India being the destination points
Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of January
Nymex crude prices witnessed a net upside while Dated Brent prices witnessed a net downside in the month of January
INR witnessed a net depreciation against the USD in the month of January
Central Board of Excise & Customs notifications on import/export USD exchange rates are as follows:
Dated January 2
nd
2014: 62.35/USD (for imports) & 61.35/USD (for exports)
Dated January 16
th
2014: 62.20/USD (for imports) & 61.20/USD (for exports)

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Introduction

HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes
1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE
finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high
resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such
as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food
containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

Import Snapshot

Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot

The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of January saw HDPE
import level at 30086 MTS which represents a rise of 0.85% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in January stood at Rs. 293 crores which is a
rise of 2.09% hike over the monetary value of HDPE M-o-M.

Source: GoI Import Data
HDPE Volume (MTS) M-o-M Change Value (Rs Crores) M-o-M Change
Jan-13 34253 -8.20% 270 -6.90%
Feb-13 28109 -17.94% 227 -15.93%
Mar-13 31391 11.68% 263 15.86%
Apr-13 29322 -6.59% 249 -5.32%
May-13 31949 8.96% 266 6.83%
Jun-13 33839 5.92% 285 7.14%
Jul-13 29801 -11.93% 266 -6.67%
Aug-13 25050 -15.94% 232 -12.78%
Sep-13 24385 -2.65% 244 5.17%
Oct-13 27253 11.76% 264 8.20%
Nov-13 24461 -10.24% 240 -9.09%
Dec-13 29833 21.96% 287 19.58%
Jan-14 30086 0.85% 293 2.09%
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Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports


The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE imported
into India.

Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown


The above table lists the region-wise breakdown of imported HDPE. The bulk of HDPE imported by India is sourced from the Middle East region.
HDPE 2014 Jan
APAC 6.06%
EUROPE 1.49%
MIDDLE EAST 91.08%
NORTH AMERICA 1.29%
SOUTH AMERICA 0.08%
Total 100.00%
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Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown


The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India. The previous months import data is also provided for reference.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.
HDPE (MTS) Dec-13 Jan-14
BELGIUM 3
BRAZIL 46 25
CANADA 60 23
CHINA 14 31
FRANCE 15
GERMANY 180 335
HONGKONG 23
INDONESIA 88 88
IRAN 347 644
JAPAN 351 366
KOREA 688 552
KUWAIT 1139 1958
MALAYSIA 153 102
QATAR 9455 9695
SAUDI ARABIA 13895 13180
SINGAPORE 402 438
SPAIN 50
SWEDEN 11 50
TAIWAN 149 46
THAILAND 217 198
UAE 2321 1926
USA 292 364
Total 29833 30086
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Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown


The table lists out the ports that handled the imported HDPE in January 2014.
The previous months import data is also provided for reference.

JNPT among seaports and Bhusawal ICD among dryports were the largest HDPE
import volume handling ports.

HDPE (MTS) Type Dec-13 Jan-14
AHMEDABAD Dry 946 965
BALLABHGARH Dry 17 61
BANGALORE Dry 57
BARODA DASHRATH Dry 25
BHUSAWAL Dry 1312 1386
CHENNAI Sea 2465 1575
COCHIN Sea 1458 834
DADRI ALBATROSS Dry 151
DADRI CGM Dry 84 67
DELHI Air 12
GOA Sea 45 116
HARASARU GARI Dry 330 362
HYDERABAD Dry 1228 492
JNPT Sea 13577 19035
KOLKATA Sea 2076 270
LUDHIANA Dry 32 48
MANGALORE Sea 107 190
MUNDRA Sea 1182 305
NAGPUR Dry 10
NASHIK Dry 6
PATPARGANJ Dry 2 2
PITHAMPUR Dry 248
SANAND Dry 208
REWARI Dry 99
TONDIARPET Dry 36
TUGHLAKABAD Dry 1749 945
TUTICORIN Dry 1077 229
TUTICORIN Sea 1374 2449
VAPI Dry 309 213
VIZAG Sea 128 32
Total 29833 30086
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix January 2014

SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
BRAZIL HYDERABAD 25
CANADA TUGHLAKABAD 23
CHENNAI 11
JNPT 20
BANGALORE 11
CHENNAI 4
CHENNAI 1
HARASARU GARI 124
JNPT 144
KOLKATA 23
TUGHLAKABAD 44
INDONESIA JNPT 88
IRAN JNPT 644
CHENNAI 104
HARASARU GARI 217
JNPT 43
PATPARGANJ 2
MALAYSIA JNPT 102
CHINA
FRANCE
GERMANY
JAPAN
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
CHENNAI 72
JNPT 416
MUNDRA 17
TONDIARPET 36
TUGHLAKABAD 11
BANGALORE 50
COCHIN 223
JNPT 943
TUTICORIN 594
VAPI 149
AHMEDABAD 192
CHENNAI 800
COCHIN 32
HYDERABAD 256
JNPT 6799
KOLKATA 64
LUDHIANA 48
MUNDRA 288
TUGHLAKABAD 496
TUTICORIN 624
VAPI 64
VIZAG 32
KOREA
KUWAIT
QATAR
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix January 2014


The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the
source countries for the month of January 2014. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
AHMEDABAD 690
BHUSAWAL 1337
CHENNAI 343
COCHIN 579
DADRI CGM 67
HYDERABAD 178
JNPT 7806
KOLKATA 129
MANGALORE 25
PITHAMPUR 248
SANAND 208
TUGHLAKABAD 112
TUTICORIN 229
TUTICORIN 1231
DELHI 12
JNPT 428
SPAIN BHUSAWAL 50
SAUDI ARABIA
SINGAPORE
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
JNPT 6
TUGHLAKABAD 44
TAIWAN JNPT 46
AHMEDABAD 38
HARASARU GARI 21
JNPT 85
KOLKATA 54
AHMEDABAD 46
CHENNAI 239
GOA 116
HYDERABAD 33
JNPT 1137
MANGALORE 165
NASHIK 10
TUGHLAKABAD 181
JNPT 331
TUGHLAKABAD 33
SWEDEN
THAILAND
UAE
USA
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HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades. Three month average and six month average are also provided. HDPE
witnessed a rise in prices across grades in January 2014.

HDPE Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Jan-14 105.54 106.87 108.41 111.51 111.42
Dec-13 102.80 103.63 105.67 108.27 108.68
Nov-13 101.71 102.54 104.58 107.18 107.59
Oct-13 101.46 102.29 104.33 106.93 107.34
Sep-13 104.56 105.39 107.43 109.03 110.44
Aug-13 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94
Jul-13 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44
Jun-13 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61
May-13 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39
Apr-13 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20
Mar-13 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20
Feb-13 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.36
Jan-13 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80
3 Month Avg 103.35 104.35 106.22 108.99 109.23
6 Month Avg 102.01 102.92 105.07 107.23 107.90
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Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film.
HDPE Film prices registered a minimum price of Rs. 104.46 per Kg and a maximum price of
Rs. 105.96 per Kg in January 2014.

Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change

Source: PolymerUpdate Price
Archives Reliance Ex-Hazira
Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the M-o-M
changes for the respective
HDPE grades considering
average monthly prices. The
month of January 2014 saw
an increase in prices
considering monthly
averages.

HDPE Film Minimum Maximum
Jan-14 104.46 105.96
Dec-13 102.46 103.46
Nov-13 100.96 102.46
Oct-13 100.96 101.96
Sep-13 103.96 104.96
Aug-13
Jul-13 94.46 95.96
Jun-13 89.46 91.46
May-13 84.96 86.96
Apr-13 84.96 86.46
Mar-13 86.46 88.96
Feb-13
Jan-13 83.96 86.96
87.96
95.96
HDPE Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Jan-14 2.67% 3.13% 2.59% 2.99% 2.52%
Dec-13 1.07% 1.06% 1.04% 1.02% 1.01%
Nov-13 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%
Oct-13 -2.96% -2.94% -2.89% -1.93% -2.81%
Sep-13 8.96% 8.85% 7.46% 8.51% 8.34%
Aug-13 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%
Jul-13 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%
Jun-13 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%
May-13 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% -0.09% 0.21%
Apr-13 -2.28% -2.26% -2.18% -2.41% -2.15%
Mar-13 -0.18% -0.18% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17%
Feb-13 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%
Jan-13 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%
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Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year
time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Jan 2013 = Rs. 83.96 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of Jan 2014 = Rs. 105.96 per Kg
% Price change in 1 year = 26.20%

Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a
three year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of Jan 2011 = Rs. 63.51 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of Jan 2014 = Rs. 105.96 per Kg
% Price change in 3 years = 66.84%

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Exhibit: Ethylene India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in the beginning of Jan 2014 = 1470 USD per MT
Ethylene price at the end of Jan 2014 = 1410 USD per MT
% price change in Jan 2014 = -4.08%

Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of January.
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Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),
LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET
(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the
value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India
price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk
Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQ
Film; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

Price Trends HDPE LDPE LLDPE PP PVC PS PET EVA
Jan-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Feb-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Mar-13 Down Up Up Down Up Up Down Up
Apr-13 Down Down Down Down Down No Change Down Down
May-13 Up Up Up Up Down Down No Change Down
Jun-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Jul-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Aug-13 Up Up Up No Change No Change Up Up Down
Sep-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Oct-13 Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down
Nov-13 Up Down Down Down Down Down Down Up
Dec-13 Up Up Up Up Up No Change No Change Up
Jan-14 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
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Important Global News

Yanshan Petrochemical has shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) line. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the line was
shut on January 28, 2014. The reason behind the shutdown could not be ascertained. Located at Beijing in China, the line has a
production capacity of 70,000 mt/year

Ineos Olefins and Polymers has declared a force majeure on supplies of polyethylene (PE) from its plant in Texas. A Polymerupdate
source in the US informed in the last week of January that the FM was declared as repairs are underway on manufacturing equipment at
the plant. The extent of the damage to the equipment could not be ascertained. Located in La Porte, Texas, the plant has an HDPE
production capacity of 794,000 mt/year

Shanghai Secco Petrochemical is in plans to shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate
source in China informed that the plant is scheduled to be taken off-stream on March 10, 2014. It is likely to remain shut for around one
month. Located in Shanghai, China, the plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year

Wuhan Petrochemicals has shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the plant was
shut in the second week of January owing to technical issues. A restart date for the plant could not be confirmed. Located in Hubei
province of China, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year

GAIL India Limited has delayed plans to shut its petrochemical complex for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in India
informed that the shutdown of the complex has been delayed to February 14, 2014. The complex was initially slated to shut on January
25, 2014. It is likely to remain off-stream for around 15 days. Located at Pata, Uttar Pradesh in India. The complex comprises a cracker
with an ethylene production capacity of 500,000 mt/year, a high-density polyethylene/linear low-density polyethylene (HDPE/LLDPE)
swing unit having a production capacity of 210,000 mt/year and two dedicated HDPE plants, each having a production capacity of
100,000 mt/year

Fushun Petrochemical has shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in China
informed that the plant was shut on January 7, 2014. It is likely to remain off-stream for around one month. Located in Fushun, Liaoning
province, China, the plant has a production capacity of 350,000 mt/year

Dow has shut a polyethylene (PE) plant in the US owing to technical issues. A Polymerupdate source in the US informed that the PE 4 unit
was shut on January 1, 2014 due to a compressor leak. Following the leak, around 306 pounds of ethylene was leaked into the air. It
could not be ascertained as to when the unit would restart. Located in Freeport, Texas, the PE 4 unit has an LDPE production capacity of
445 million lbs/yer, LLDPE capacity of 562 million lbs/year and HDPE production capacity of 410 million lbs/year

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

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HDPE Offers in January

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

Offered Product
Offerred on
Basis
Offer Price
Offer
Unit
Offer from
Country
Offer to
Country
Expected Shipment Offer Date
Film CNF 1500 USD Middle East Pakistan Jan-14 7-Jan-14
Blow Moulding CNF 1500 USD Middle East Pakistan Jan-14 7-Jan-14
Film CIF 1510-1520 USD Saudi Arabia Sri Lanka Jan-14 7-Jan-14
Blow Moulding CFR 1660-1670 USD Brazil Nigeria Feb-14 15-Jan-14
Film CIF 1610 USD Thailand India Feb-14 27-Jan-14
Film CIF 1530-1540 USD Saudi Arabia India end Feb/early Mar 2014 28-Jan-14
Blow Moulding CIF 1540-1550 USD Saudi Arabia India end Feb/early Mar 2014 28-Jan-14
Film CIF 1560 USD Middle East India Feb-14 28-Jan-14
Film CIF 1560 USD Saudi Arabia India Feb-14 24-Jan-14
Film CIF 1550 USD Saudi Arabia India Feb-14 27-Jan-14
Film CFR 1550 USD Saudi Arabia Dubai Feb-14 27-Jan-14
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Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum
Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

HDPE Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 490 490 490 490
GAIL 700 700 700 700
HPL 550 550 550 550
IOCL 475 475 475 475
OPAL --- 720 720 720
BPCL 155 155 155 155
Ethylene Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 1840 1840 3240 3240
GAIL 1000 1000 1000 1000
HPL 670 670 670 670
IOCL 857 857 857 857
BPCL - Assam GC 220 220 220 220
OPAL 0 1100 1100 1100
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Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference 2013 India Country Report (A:Actual, E:Estimate)

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot. HDPE registered a 9% growth in 2012; this is likely to increase to 12% and 14% in 2013
and 2014 respectively.

Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply


The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India. As we can see, PE recorded a growth of 12% in 2012 and likely to maintain the momentum in 2013
and 2014.

HDPE (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
HDPE Capacity 1513 1740 1740 1740 1900
LLD/HD Capacity 847 1007 1007 1007 1175
Total Capacity 2360 2747 2747 2747 3075
Production 1108 1462 1414 1464 1588
Imports 449 332 449 536 646
Exports 88 242 171 100 61
Apparent Demand 1469 1552 1692 1901 2173
Demand Growth (%) 9.50% 5.70% 9.00% 12% 14%
ALL PE (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 2578 2965 2965 2965 3293
Production 1992 2399 2332 2548 2746
Imports 1087 972 1323 1455 1707
Exports 95 265 176 121 86
Apparent Demand 2984 3106 3479 3881 4366
Demand Growth (%) 9.40% 4.10% 12% 12% 12%
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Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply


The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario. Operating rate is expected to increase from 83% in 2012 to 86% in 2013 and expected to
touch 90% in 2014.

Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability


All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.

Ethylene (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 3826 4080 4080 4080 5180
Production 2827 3355 3744 3735 4421
Imports 109 36 23 50 25
Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Net Availability 2936 3391 3767 3785 4446
Polymers (Kt) 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 E 2014 E
Capacity 7905 8467 8907 9447 9875
Production 6358 7102 7434 8116 8867
Operating Rate 80% 84% 83% 86% 90%
Imports 2104 2099 2552 2793 3136
Exports 792 1089 1027 996 965
Net Trade -1313 -1010 -1525 -1797 -2171
Apparent Demand 7670 8113 8959 9913 11037
Demand Growth% 12% 5.80% 10% 11% 11%
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GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12
2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth
rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

5 Year Plan Parameter HDPE Ethylene CAGR
Capacity Creation 9.20% 9.00%
Demand 10.90% 7.00%
Capacity Creation 11.10% 12.90%
Demand 9.20% 12.40%
13th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2016/17 -
2021/22)
Demand 9.00% 0.80% Projected
Actual
11th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2005/06 -
2011/12)
12th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2011/12 -
2016/17)
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South Asia Import Duty Structure

Products Basic Duty %
Countervailing
Duty (CVD) %
Education Cess
on CVD %
Special
Additional Duty
(SAD) %
TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
LLDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Homopolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Copolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
GPPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HIPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PVC 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PET 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
INDIA
Products Basic Duty % VAT %
Advance Income
Tax (AIT)
Advance Trade
VAT (ATV)
TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 5 15 5 3 28
LLDPE 5 15 5 3 28
HDPE 5 15 5 3 28
PP-Homopolymer 5 15 5 3 28
PP-Copolymer 5 15 5 3 28
GPPS 5 15 5 3 28
HIPS 5 15 5 3 28
PVC 5 15 5 3 28
PET 5 15 5 3 28
BANGLADESH
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Products
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
PAL (Port &
Airport
Development
Levy) %
Nation Building
Tax (NBT) %
VAT % TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 0 5 2 12 19
LLDPE 0 5 2 12 19
HDPE 0 5 2 12 19
PP-Homopolymer 0 5 2 12 19
PP-Copolymer 0 5 2 12 19
GPPS 0 5 2 12 19
HIPS 0 5 2 12 19
PVC 0 5 2 12 19
PET 0 5 2 12 19
SRI LANKA
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
VAT %
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
VAT %
LDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
LLDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
HDPE 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PP-Homopolymer 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PP-Copolymer 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
GPPS 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
HIPS 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PVC 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
PET 6.5 13 19.5 10 13 23
Products
If imported from India If imported from countries other than India
TOTAL DUTY % TOTAL DUTY %
NEPAL
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Data collected from various sources
Products
Customs Import
Duty (CID) %
Sales Tax % Income Tax % TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 5 17 5 27
LLDPE 5 17 5 27
HDPE 5 17 5 27
PP-Homopolymer 5 17 5 27
PP-Copolymer 5 17 5 27
GPPS 15 17 5 37
HIPS 15 17 5 37
EPS 15 17 5 37
PVC 10 17 5 32
PAKISTAN
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Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while
the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

INR value against the USD in the beginning of Jan 2014 = 61.93 per USD
INR value against the USD at the end of Jan 2014 = 62.47 per USD
% value change in Jan 2014 = 0.87% (depreciation)

Dated Brent price in the beginning of Jan 2014 = 107.78 USD per barrel
Dated Brent price at the end of Jan 2014 = 106.40 USD per barrel
% price change in Jan 2014 = -1.28%

Nymex crude price in the beginning of Jan 2014 = 95.44 USD per barrel
Nymex crude price at the end of Jan 2014 = 97.49 USD per barrel
% price change in Jan 2014 = 2.15%

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India GDP Growth Projections 2013-14

Data collected from various sources

Organization GDP Growth
ADB - October 2013 4.7%
CRISIL - September 2013 4.8%
Fitch - September 2013 4.8%
GoI - February 2014 4.9%
NCAER India - February 2014 4.7%-4.9%
RBI - October 2013 4.8%
Standard Chartered - February 2014 4.7%
World Bank - October 2013 4.7%
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We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at info@polymerupdate.com.

Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such
information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.
Please refer to Notification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals is owned by the Planning Commission,
Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.
Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have
attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We
have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are
difficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;
hence some totals/subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness
or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any
expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of
this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Hdpe - Import Data & Pricing Analysis JANUARY 2014

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