This document provides a weekly technical analysis report from Æther Analytics. It includes analysis of various currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and individual stocks. For each market, it identifies patterns like Elliot waves or harmonic patterns and provides trade ideas and price targets. It also includes a disclaimer about the information provided and an appendix describing the company's methodology around pattern identification, trade setups, risk management, and position sizing.
This document provides a weekly technical analysis report from Æther Analytics. It includes analysis of various currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and individual stocks. For each market, it identifies patterns like Elliot waves or harmonic patterns and provides trade ideas and price targets. It also includes a disclaimer about the information provided and an appendix describing the company's methodology around pattern identification, trade setups, risk management, and position sizing.
This document provides a weekly technical analysis report from Æther Analytics. It includes analysis of various currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and individual stocks. For each market, it identifies patterns like Elliot waves or harmonic patterns and provides trade ideas and price targets. It also includes a disclaimer about the information provided and an appendix describing the company's methodology around pattern identification, trade setups, risk management, and position sizing.
All Markets publ i sh date : 10/17/2014 Author : Alex Bernal, CMT alex@aetheranalytics.com 805.252.7161 DISCLAIMER
The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.
This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.
The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.
No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.
Report Details Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included. Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. Com User Guide Download Link > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf
AUDCAD Weekly 1/2 way to target zone AUDNZD WeeklyBearish BatLow Pattern Rank CADJPY Low Pattern Rank Bearish Gartley EURAUDWeekly Copsey Elliot WaveWave 5 underway EURAUDWeekly Copsey Elliot WaveWave 5 underway EURCADWeekly Elliot WaveWave 5 underway EURUSD2/3 the way to target zone NZDCADNice move off Bullish Bat support NZDJPYLow pattern rank Bat USDCADBearish Bat Jakarta IndexWeekly Bearish Gartley Hong Kong Hang Seng Index1/2 way to target zone SPX Index Bullish Shark Taiwan IndexDouble Top Confirmed CATBullish Butterfly CSCO Almost at target zone GSLow Pattern Rank Bearish Crab IBMPotential Bullish Butterfly JPMLow pattern rank GartleyTarget Achieved XLYBullish Shark Cocoa FuturesBearish Bat CLCrude OilBullish Butterfly CottonBullish Shark ESSP500 Futures Bullish Shark Gold Daily Shallow Bullish Crab GoldWeekly Large Scale Bullish Bat Pattern still in play Live CattleBearish Three Drives RBOBGreat Chart to study Sugar No. 11Nice Reversal off shark pattern TF Russell 2000 FuturesNice Confirmed Reversal Soybean OilWeekly Bullish Deep Crab AAPLBearish Bat ADBEBullish Bat ADP WeeklyGreat Chart to Study ADSBig move off Bullish Bat AESBullish Butterfly AIZ Bullish Crab AMATBullish Gartley AONHeres one for the EWavers APANice Bearish Crab & Head & Shoulders Pattern ATIBullish Bat AVYBullish Deep Crab BDXBullish Gartley BMSBullish Gartley CAH Weekly Bearish Butterfly CBSBullish Crab CERNBearish Bat COF Nice follow thought in COF COG Weekly Head & Shoulders Confirming CVCBullish Gartley DNB Weekly Bearish Bat ESS Bullish Shark F Weekly Target Achieved FLR Bullish Bat GISBullish Gartley GTBullish Deep Crab IFF Bullish Crab IRBullish Butterfly JBL Weekly LBBearish Bat METBullish Butterfly NTAP Deep Crab NUE Bearish Butterfly OMCBullish Bat PBI Bullish Butterfly PCARBullish Bat TRIPBullish Bat USB Bullish Butterfly Appendix Methodology & Strategy Harmonic any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.
The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number. - J.M. Hurst
Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that we have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We dont believe in the subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or forecasted.
Common Newsletter Nomenclature Pattern RankOur proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment (longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.
PRZPotential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern
Pattern NamesBAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point fractal structures that appear in the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full specifics and details for each pattern
Detrended OscillatorOne of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is very similar to RVALUE indicator laid out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great tool in analyzing the over extending to the up and downside of a markets normal behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and momentum. Appendix These standing wave patterns represent the lowest energy vibrational modes of the object or complex system. While there are countless way by which an object can vibrate (each associated with a specific frequency), objects favor only a few specific modes or patterns of vibrating. The favored modes (patterns) of vibration are those which result in the highest amplitude vibrations with the least input of energy. -AE Trade Management We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often util ize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR 14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out. Position Sizing
There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our confidence rating in the context of each trade. When we mention Normal position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your specific risk tolerance and trade management style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have slightly less confidence in & 6/4 (150%) or 8/4 (200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each trade. We never ever recommend betting the farm or going all in in any trade because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formulas that we recommend is the following:
Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolio equity to risk per trade (2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR
Author Bio
Alex Bernal, CMT Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivatives markets. Alex also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co. in the wealth management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical arbitrage in areas such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year treasuries floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analytics in 2009 with the intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce quantifiable edge through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to reveal the repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.
Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.com, Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.