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The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
Stephen E. Schwartz
CSSP Lecture
July 27, 2005
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE
Global and annual average energy fluxes in watts per square meter
69% = 1 - α
237
343 ≈ 254K
4
1/4 S0 1/4 S0 (1- α ) = σT
237 Shortwave Longwave
α = 31%
106 H2O, CO2, CH4...
68
Rayleigh
Aerosol
390
≈ 288K Atmosphere
327
90
16
169 L
S
340 340
330
320 320
C. D. Keeling
310
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
300
280
260
Law Dome
240 Adelie Land
Polar ice cores
220 Siple
200 South Pole
180
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Global carbon dioxide concentration
over the last thousand years
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE IS INCREASING
380
370
360 360
Mauna Loa Hawaii 1.6
350 1.4
Forcing, W m
CO2 concentration (ppm)
-2
0.4
0.2
280 0
260
Law Dome
240 Adelie Land
Polar ice cores
220 Siple
200 South Pole
180
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
Global carbon dioxide concentration and infrared radiative forcing
over the last thousand years
THE TEMPERATURE'S RISING
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ( C)
o
1.0
0.5 1998
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
YEAR
0.4
Temperature Anomaly, K
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Climate Research Unit, East Anglia UK
INDICATIONS OF SYSTEMATIC WARMING
IN RECENT YEARS
ppm
320 ice core
↓ ← in situ →
300
280
1600 CH4 ↑
ice core in
ppb
1200 situ
Greenland ↓
↓ ↑
800 Antarctica
320
N2O
300 ↑
ppb
CFC-12
other trace gas forcing
200 converted to CFC-11 amount
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Hansen et al., PNAS. 1998
GREENHOUSE GAS FORCINGS OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD
2.5
Total
2.0
Forcing relative to 1850, W m-2
1.5
CO2
1.0
0.5 CH4
CFC-11 CFC-12
N2O Other
0.0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
Data: GISS
WHERE IS ALL
THIS CO2
COMING FROM?
WHO IS
RESPONSIBLE?
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
Time series 1700 - 2003
500
400
350
300
2.5
5
2.0
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5 1
0.0 0
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
400
350
300
1000 Tg = 1 Pg
= 1015 g,
Equivalent to
0.47 ppm
Carbon flux estimated as land area times carbon emissions associated with
land clearing or afforestation (uptake).
United States dominates emissions before 1900 and uptake after 1940.
ATMOSPHERIC CO2 EMISSIONS
Time series 1700 - 2003
3.0
6
Land Use Emissions
2.5
5
2.0
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5 1
0.0 0
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Prior to 1910 CO2 emissions from land use changes were dominant.
Subsequently fossil fuel CO2 has been dominant and rapidly increasing!
ATTRIBUTION OF INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
Comparison of cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and
land use changes with measured increases in atmospheric CO2.
500
300
400
300
0.4
0.2
0.0
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear
A typical household using 1000 kilowatt hours of electricity
per month is responsible for emission of 3 tons of carbon
a year in the form of carbon dioxide.
How much does your household contribute?
YOUR CONTRIBUTION TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
20
10 - - - - - Renewable - - - - -
Selected Countries
20
10
0
US China Russia Japan Germany
No surprise. It's the United States.
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOST
ELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOST
ELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
Million BTU per person per year
200
100
0
US China Russia Japan Germany
WMO
Cambridge University Press, 2001
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/
THE BIBLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
It's big and thick.
Every household should have one.
No one reads it from cover to cover.
You can open it up on any page
and find something interesting.
It was written by a committee.
It is full of internal contradictions.
It deals with cataclysmic events such as
floods and droughts.
It has its true believers and its rabid skeptics.
FUTURE CLIMATE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
(IPCC, 2001)