Wind and Wave Statistics

for Offshore Israel

August 2011
Revision 4






Prepared by:



101 Chestnut Street
Camden, ME 04843
207-236-7747 direct
207-542-4769 cell
george@forocean.com

8/29/2011
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Table of Contents:


1.0 Background ............................................................................................................. 3

2.0 Data Sources ............................................................................................................ 3

3.0 Extreme Values ....................................................................................................... 3

4.0 Extreme Value Contours of Wave Height and Peak Period ............................... 5

5.0 Associated Design Conditions ................................................................................ 6

6.0 Wind Speed by Direction........................................................................................ 8

7.0 Wave Height Operating Conditions ...................................................................... 9

8.0 Air and Sea Temperatures ................................................................................... 12

9.0 Recommendations ................................................................................................. 14

10.0 References ............................................................................................................ 15



Files Delivered for this Project:

This report:

IsraelCriteria.pdf


Spreadsheets:

IsraelHsTpContours.xls
IsraelTsTp.xls
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1.0 Background

ATP Oil & Gas is studying a prospect in the eastern Mediterranean offshore of Israel. The
location is approximately 34 E, 33 N in about 5000 feet of water. The development
concept is sensitive to wave period so detailed information on extreme wave heights and
associated wave periods is essential. ATP has appropriate wind and wave hindcast data
from Oceanweather. This report describes the calculation of the needed extreme wind
speeds, extreme wave heights, and wave height and period contours.


2.0 Data Sources

ATP has purchased wind, wave and current hindcast data from Oceanweather, Inc. The
hindcasts are from the GROW series of hindcasts (Oceanweather, 2007). The data include
continuous year round wind and wave hindcasts for the 40 years from 1970 2009. The
grid point for the wind and wave hindcast is number 38098 at 33.125 N, 33.75 E. The
location of the grid point is shown in Figure 1. The grid point is close to the site, and
appropriate for this metocean analysis. No current data are available.

Oceanweather (2010) calibrated their wind and wave hindcast using satellite altimeter data.
The calibration equations are linear fits to quantile-quantile (QQ) plots. The calibration
equation for wind speed is

GROW
1.620 1.201 WS WS = + (1)

The calibration equation for significant wave height is

GROW
0.115 1.041 HS HS = + (2)

Oceanweather applied calibration equations (1) and (2) to the data supplied to ATP for this
project.


3.0 Extreme Values

Extreme wind speed values were calculated using the Peaks Over Threshold (POT)
method. The peak value from each time period between an up-crossing of this threshold
and the subsequent down-crossing was found from the hindcast time series. The peaks
were then fit to three parameter Weibull distributions.

An optimum threshold of 12 m/sec was selected for the wind speed hindcasts. Peaks were
required to be separated by more than seven days. Separating the peaks ensures that they
are from separate storms. This combination of threshold and separation time gave 280
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peaks in 40 years. The fit is shown in Figure 2. The return period values are shown in
Table 1.


Return Period (years) Wind Speed (m/sec)
1 16.3
10 19.3
100 21.7

Table 1. Extreme values of one hour wind speed at 10 m elevation above mean
sea level.

The Table 1 wind speeds are one hour averages at an elevation of 10 m. Wind speeds at
other elevations and averaging times should be found using the NORSOK (1999)
guidelines for wind profiles. These guidelines give the wind speed u(z,t) at height z above
mean sea level for averaging period t as

0
( , ) ( )[1 0.41 ( )ln( / )]
u
u z t U z I z t t = (3)

where the one hour average wind U(z) is given by


0 0
( ) [1 ln( /10)] U z U C z = + (4)

( )
1/2
0
0.0573 1 0.15 C U = + (5)

and the turbulence intensity I
u
(z) is given by


| |
( ) I z U z
u
( ) . . /
.22
= +

0061 0043 10
0
0
(6)

The wind spectrum is given by

2 2 0.45
ref ref
3.561
0.468
(320 m/sec)(U(10)/U ) (z/z )
( , )
1+f
S f z =
(

(7)

where
2/3 0.75
ref ref
(10)
(172 sec)
z U
f f
z U

| | | |
=
| |
\ . \ .

(8)

The reference elevation above the mean sea surface z
ref
is 10 m, and the reference wind
speed U
ref
is 10 m/sec.

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Extreme values of significant wave height were estimated from the Oceanweather hindcast.
The analysis was made using the POT method. An optimum threshold of 3.0 m and a
separation of seven days were used to find the peaks. This combination of threshold and
separation time gave 262 peaks in 40 years. The peaks were fit using a three parameter
Weibull distribution. The fit is shown in Figure 3. The results are shown in
Table 2.

Return Period (years) Sig. Wave Height (m)
1 5.07
10 6.67
100 7.98

Table 2. Extreme values of significant wave height.


4.0 Extreme Value Contours of Wave Height and Peak Period

The critical combination of wave height and period for a floating system is not necessarily
the combination with the highest wave height. Designers should examine a range of height
and period combinations that have the same probability of occurrence as the maximum
significant wave height.

Environmental contours were used to give a set of wave heights and periods of equal
probability. A scatter plot of hindcast or observed heights and corrected peak periods was
contoured with a kernel density estimator. Each point in the scatter diagram was dressed
with a log-normal probability density function. All of the density functions were added
together to give a smooth probability density function for the entire data set. According to
Scott (1992), the optimum standard deviation of the kernel is given by

1/6
i i
h n

= (9)

where
i
is the standard deviation of the data in dimension i, and n is the number of data
points.

The resulting probability density was contoured using the MATLAB (version 6.5.0)
contouring routine contourc.m. The probability level of the contour was chosen so that the
maximum wave height on the contour equals the independent return period wave height.
The steepness of the waves was limited to 1/13 in order to eliminate waves steeper than are
physically realistic.

Figure 4 shows the extreme value contours of significant wave height and corrected peak
period. Numerical values of the value of the data points on the contours are in spreadsheet
IsraelHsTpKernel.xls.


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5.0 Associated Design Conditions

Designing for individual extremes of winds, waves and currents is overly conservative
because the extremes are unlikely to occur simultaneously. The most realistic and accurate
approach is to use response-based design criteria. This approach requires an approximate
definition of the structure. The next best approach is to consider the joint statistics of
winds, waves and currents. Two design cases are constructed. One case is the set of
conditions associated with the independent extreme values of the wind. The other is the
set of conditions associated with the extreme wave height.

Least-squares fits for the associated parameters are found as a function of the independent
extreme parameter. The expected values of the associated parameters are obtained from
the regression lines.

Figure 5 is a scatter plot of the significant wave height versus the one hour wind speed. A
linear regression for wind speeds greater than 10 m/sec gives

1.70 0.405 0.72
s
H WS = + (10)

Figure 6 is a scatter plot of hourly wind speed versus significant wave height. A power
law regression gives

0.654
4.80 1.9
S
WS H = (11)

The relationship between significant wave height and peak wave period was found from
the contours described in Section 4. The associated wave period is the period at the
maximum wave height on the contour.

Applying equation (10) to the extreme values of wind speed given in Table 1 gives the
environmental conditions associated with the extreme wind speeds. The design values for
conditions dominated by extreme wind speed are listed in Table 6.


Years WS
(m/sec)
H
s

(m)
T
p

(sec)
1 16.3 4.91 11.0
10 19.3 6.12 12.0
100 21.7 7.10 13.2

Table 3. Design conditions for extremes dominated by wind speed.


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Applying equation (11) to the extreme values of significant wave height given in Table 2
gives the environmental conditions associated with the maximum wave height. Those
values are listed in Table 4.

Years H
s

(m)
T
p

(sec)
WS
(m/sec)
1 5.07 11.0 13.9
10 6.67 13.1 16.6
100 7.98 13.2 18.7

Table 4. Design conditions for extremes dominated by wind speed.




Wave spectra can be reconstructed from the significant wave height and peak period using
the J ONSWAP spectral form. It is given by

( )
S f f
f
f
p
f f
f
p
p
( ) exp
exp
=
|
\

|
.
|
|

(
(

(
(
(


5
4
2
5
4
2
2 2
(12)

where

=
=
= >

a p
b p
f f
f f
007
009
.
.
if
if
(13)

Using the relationships derived by Goda (1985), the scale factor is related to the
significant wave height by

1
4 2
909 . 1
925 . 0
168 . 0 15 . 1
16
5

(

+
+ =

p s
f H (14)

We do not have direct information about the spectral peakedness factor for this location.
In the absence of other information, the usual fetch-limited value of = 3.3 should be used
for all spectra.






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6.0 Wind Speed by Direction

Figure 7 is a rose plot of wind speed and direction from the Oceanweather hindcast. It
shows that the wind direction is predominantly from the west. Figure 8 shows percentiles
of wind speed non-exceedance in each direction. Numeric values corresponding to the
figure are listed in Table 5. The second column shows the omni-directional wind speed
percentiles. The percentiles are for wind speeds given that the wind is from the directional
octant. This calculation does not account for the fact that winds from some octants are
much more likely than winds from other octants.


Percentile Wind Speed (m/sec) given direction
Omni N NE E SE S SW W NW
50 4.66 3.47 4.04 4.01 3.06 3.11 4.81 5.75 4.25
80 6.94 5.09 5.99 6.29 5.37 5.75 7.77 7.76 6.09
90 8.23 6.02 7.18 7.52 6.69 7.32 9.89 8.95 7.08
95 9.55 6.94 8.26 8.47 7.75 8.66 11.75 10.20 7.99
98 11.41 8.46 9.62 9.51 9.08 10.20 13.84 12.01 9.36
99 12.78 9.95 10.38 10.31 9.89 11.36 14.95 13.27 10.52

Table 5. Wind speeds percentiles given that the wind is from the direction
indicated.

Table 6 takes this difference into account by showing the percent of time the wind speeds
in the first column of the table are exceeded in each direction. The top line of the table for
0 m/sec wind speed gives the percent of time the wind is from the direction shown.

For example, a wind speed from the north of 5 m/sec is exceeded 2.07% of the time. That
means that 97.93% of the time the wind is either from a direction other than north, or the
wind from the north is less than 5 m/sec. The higher wind speeds are much more likely
from the SW and W than from other directions. Note that the wind speeds in Tables 5 and
6 are hourly average speeds at 10 m elevation. Equations 3 6 should be used to find
wind speeds at other averaging periods and elevations.

Figure 9 converts Table 6 into non-exceedance percentiles. They show the probability that
the wind is either not in the direction shown or the wind speed in that direction is less than
the radius to the line. Only percentiles greater than 97% can be shown because the wind is
from the south or southeast only about 3.5% of the time.







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Speed
(m/sec)
Direction
N NE E SE S SW W NW
0 9.6475 9.0315 6.2474 3.3445 3.5549 12.7678 37.6386 17.7678
1 8.8629 8.3761 5.6759 2.8636 3.0749 12.1561 36.9182 16.9576
2 7.4418 7.3400 4.8811 2.2579 2.4410 11.0489 35.2918 15.1703
3 5.6785 6.0720 4.0469 1.7112 1.8438 9.6022 32.5950 12.7515
4 3.7620 4.5645 3.1289 1.2141 1.3244 7.8551 28.5489 9.7142
5 2.0705 3.0108 2.2450 0.7931 0.9351 6.0198 23.2324 6.5135
6 0.9762 1.7950 1.4352 0.5039 0.6502 4.4687 17.1535 3.7581
7 0.4637 0.9925 0.8581 0.2764 0.4175 3.2692 11.1567 1.8703
8 0.2669 0.5339 0.4569 0.1318 0.2421 2.3640 6.5272 0.8753
9 0.1514 0.2806 0.2070 0.0706 0.1480 1.7368 3.6251 0.4432
10 0.0927 0.1281 0.0811 0.0262 0.0789 1.2218 2.0795 0.2473
11 0.0556 0.0548 0.0334 0.0047 0.0471 0.8445 1.2474 0.1330
12 0.0334 0.0230 0.0125 0.0015 0.0232 0.5681 0.7546 0.0753
13 0.0142 0.0117 0.0034 0.0007 0.0110 0.3765 0.4329 0.0361
14 0.0079 0.0095 0.0001 0.0055 0.2357 0.2293 0.0130
15 0.0007 0.0072 0.0045 0.1189 0.1142 0.0025
16 0.0046 0.0024 0.0563 0.0513 0.0003
17 0.0007 0.0013 0.0253 0.0217
18 0.0117 0.0068
19 0.0059 0.0007
20 0.0019
21 0.0001

Table 6. Percent of time that the wind speed is greater than the listed speed and
in the direction shown.


7.0 Wave Height Operating Conditions

Figure 10 is a rose plot of wave height and direction from the Oceanweather hindcast. It
shows that the waves predominantly propagate predominantly to the east. Table 7 shows
percentiles of wave height non-exceedance in each direction. The second column shows
the omni-directional wave height percentiles. The percentiles are for wave heights given
that the waves are in that directional octant. This calculation does not account for the fact
that waves in some octants are much more likely than waves from other octants.

Table 8 takes this difference into account by showing the percent of time the wave heights
in the first column of the table are exceeded in each direction. The top line of the table for
0 m waves gives the percent of time the waves are in the direction shown.




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Percentile Significant wave height (m) gi ven direction
Omni N NE E SE S SW W NW
50 0.93 0.65 1.18 1.09 0.77 0.62 0.68 0.68 0.60
80 1.41 1.05 2.10 1.61 1.09 0.88 1.02 1.01 0.91
90 1.86 1.31 2.76 2.12 1.38 1.13 1.27 1.25 1.12
95 2.43 1.55 3.41 2.73 1.84 1.53 1.56 1.47 1.31
98 3.24 1.96 4.17 3.54 2.66 2.04 1.93 1.71 1.51
99 3.82 2.09 4.53 4.10 3.21 2.53 2.21 1.90 1.66

Table 7. Wave height percentiles given that the waves are in the direction
indicated.


Height
(m)
Direction
N NE E SE S SW W NW
0 0.9523 2.8157 56.4759 20.8436 6.3167 7.1894 3.8989 1.5075
1 0.2088 1.6384 32.9757 5.3037 0.8504 1.5161 0.8171 0.2229
2 0.0151 0.6152 6.5580 0.8500 0.1413 0.1149 0.0282 0.0019
3 0.2079 2.1090 0.2657 0.0288 0.0107 0.0002
4 0.0715 0.6468 0.0761 0.0017 0.0046
5 0.0093 0.1779 0.0080
6 0.0004 0.0352 0.0005
7 0.0027

Table 8. Percent of time that the waves are greater than the listed height and in
the direction shown.

Figure 11 shows contours of significant wave height and peak period for percentile non-
exceedance values of wave height. These we calculated using the method described in
Section 4.

Figure 12 shows the percent exceedance of significant wave height for each month and for
the entire year. Exceedances are given for wave heights in steps of 0.5 m from 0.5 m to
5.0 m. The percent exceedance values are listed in Table 9.

Table 10 is a significant wave height and peak period scatter diagram. The hindcast wave
heights and periods were smoothed using the kernel density estimator described in Section
4 before being sorted into bins. The numbers in Table 10 give the percentage of time that a
combination of wave height and period is expected to occur. Table 10 is duplicated in
spreadsheet IsraelHsTp.xls that was distributed with this report.

Figures 13 18 show the persistence of unfavorable and favorable wave conditions.
Unfavorable conditions are in the left hand panels of the figures and favorable conditions
are in the right hand panels. For example, consider the unfavorable conditions for J anuary


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Hs
0.5 88.21 88.52 87.70 81.90 81.12 93.16 98.81 98.72 95.76 84.94 82.79 86.73 89.04
1.0 53.54 53.74 49.74 42.82 31.65 39.23 52.83 47.21 39.28 26.24 35.97 50.51 43.53
1.5 31.35 33.95 27.80 20.85 9.73 7.80 8.99 5.25 5.76 8.14 18.52 28.48 17.14
2.0 18.72 21.25 16.58 9.02 3.52 1.23 0.69 0.35 0.74 2.69 9.21 16.65 8.33
2.5 11.35 13.20 9.81 3.95 1.50 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.98 5.14 9.84 4.64
3.0 6.45 8.00 5.56 1.88 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 3.04 6.04 2.62
3.5 3.57 4.48 3.10 1.06 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.67 3.80 1.48
4.0 1.98 2.48 1.88 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 2.17 0.80
4.5 0.89 1.38 1.07 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 1.12 0.41
5.0 0.39 0.77 0.42 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.64 0.20


Table 9. Percent exceedance of significant wave height for each month and the whole year.


Peak Peri od (sec)
0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-2.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-3.5 3.5-4.0 4.0-4.5 4.5-5.0 5.0-5.5 5.5-6.0 6.0-6.5 6.5-7.0 7.0-7.5 7.5-8.0 Sum
0-1 0.00991 0.00270 0.00017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0128
1-2 0.30123 0.11290 0.01017 0.00021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4245
2-3 1.78567 1.08951 0.16590 0.00606 0.00005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0472
3-4 4.65295 5.29004 1.60743 0.13071 0.00285 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.6840
4-5 5.27493 10.98905 6.77740 1.24525 0.06795 0.00111 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24.3557
5-6 2.95127 8.10158 8.29280 3.04508 0.39659 0.01901 0.00043 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.8068
6-7 1.34775 3.69079 5.01857 3.29755 0.99698 0.13920 0.01012 0.00044 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.5014
7-8 0.71440 1.61816 2.28410 2.32260 1.47971 0.52537 0.10203 0.01240 0.00118 0.00007 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.0600
8-9 0.48756 0.94056 1.03812 1.05841 1.09941 0.86247 0.41112 0.11258 0.01981 0.00244 0.00017 0.00001 0 0 0 0 6.0327
9-10 0.32659 0.59358 0.56013 0.43602 0.41895 0.49785 0.49699 0.32058 0.12401 0.02796 0.00432 0.00062 0.00006 0 0 0 3.8077
10-11 0.21295 0.36475 0.32974 0.25367 0.18875 0.15752 0.19134 0.22980 0.19031 0.09901 0.03355 0.00836 0.00177 0.00027 0.00002 0 2.2618
11-12 0.11614 0.19882 0.19609 0.15823 0.10882 0.06531 0.04789 0.05364 0.07343 0.07977 0.05577 0.02487 0.00748 0.00173 0.00026 0.00002 1.1883
12-13 0.05346 0.09158 0.09145 0.07539 0.05037 0.02884 0.01841 0.01566 0.01620 0.02046 0.02354 0.01838 0.01012 0.00439 0.00138 0.00023 0.5199
13-14 0.02557 0.04119 0.03878 0.03363 0.02687 0.01683 0.00953 0.00617 0.00383 0.00445 0.00609 0.00662 0.00692 0.00523 0.00224 0.00043 0.2344
14-15 0.00866 0.01130 0.00914 0.00772 0.00446 0.00203 0.00169 0.00098 0.00039 0.00104 0.00178 0.00130 0.00084 0.00054 0.00016 0.00001 0.0520
15-16 0.00291 0.00294 0.00197 0.00140 0.00045 0.00005 0.00001 0.00001 0 0.00001 0.00001 0.00001 0 0 0 0 0.0098
16-17 0.00124 0.00101 0.00024 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0025
17-18 0.00011 0.00009 0.00002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0002
Sum 18.2733 33.1406 26.4222 12.0720 4.8422 2.3156 1.2896 0.7523 0.4292 0.2352 0.1252 0.0602 0.0272 0.0122 0.0041 0.0007 100.0016
Wave Hei ght and Peri od Scatter Di agram
Tabl e l i sts percentages
Si gni fi cant Wave Hei ght (m)



Table 10. Significant wave height and peak period scatter diagram. The numbers in the table are the percentage of time the combination
of wave height and period is expected in the cell.
in Figure 13. The curves show that once the wave height exceeds 2 m, there is a 20%
chance that it will stay above 2 m less than 12.7 hours. There is an 80% chance that the
wave height will stay above 2 m less than 56.1 hours. The favorable condition curves for
J anuary show that once the wave height becomes lower than 2 m, there is a 20% chance
that it will stay below 2 m for less than 26.1 hours. That means there is an 80% chance
that it will stay below 2 m for longer than 26.1 hours. There is an 80% chance that it will
stay below 2 m for less than 236.7 hours.


8.0 Air and Sea Temperatures

Average air temperatures were found from climatological data at Haifa, Israel (32.8 N,
35.3 E). Table 11 lists the daily average temperatures for each month along with the
average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for each month.

Sea water temperatures were taken from the World Ocean Atlas 2009. Table 12 lists the
average temperature as a function of depth for each month. Table 13 lists the standard
deviation of the temperature as a function of depth for each month.

Month Dail y Average
(C)
Average Dail y
Maximum (C)
Average Dail y
Minimum (C)
Jan 13.3 17.8 8.9
Feb 13.3 17.8 8.9
Mar 15.6 19.4 10.6
Apr 18.3 23.3 13.3
May 21.7 26.1 17.2
Jun 25.0 28.9 20.6
Jul 27.2 31.1 23.3
Aug 27.8 31.1 23.9
Sep 26.1 30.0 22.2
Oct 23.3 27.2 18.3
Nov 18.9 23.9 13.9
Dec 15.0 19.4 9.4

Table 11. Average daily temperatures at Haifa Israel (32.8 N, 35.3 E).













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Depth
(m)
Average Temperature (C)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0 18.23 17.12 16.96 18.20 20.92 24.15 26.61 27.69 27.30 25.54 22.86 20.18
10 18.20 17.15 16.92 17.95 20.59 23.88 26.34 27.33 27.00 25.44 22.87 20.16
20 18.14 17.07 16.89 17.79 19.77 22.42 24.88 26.41 26.59 25.30 22.87 20.18
30 18.10 17.03 16.89 17.61 18.88 20.27 21.83 23.70 25.14 24.91 22.84 20.16
50 18.07 16.89 16.87 17.31 17.70 18.24 19.15 20.28 21.38 22.07 21.72 20.10
75 17.83 16.90 16.72 17.04 17.19 17.22 17.58 18.09 18.40 18.63 18.91 18.74
100 17.10 16.79 16.69 16.83 16.95 16.91 16.95 17.18 17.41 17.48 17.45 17.35
125 16.78 16.59 16.49 16.63 16.75 16.66 16.60 16.77 16.98 16.97 16.86 16.84
150 16.51 16.44 16.39 16.43 16.42 16.30 16.27 16.42 16.53 16.48 16.42 16.47
200 15.91 16.00 16.08 16.06 16.00 15.98 15.99 16.00 16.04 16.08 16.05 15.94
250 15.66 15.74 15.73 15.67 15.64 15.66 15.65 15.64 15.66 15.66 15.61 15.59
300 15.26 15.33 15.30 15.23 15.25 15.28 15.24 15.18 15.22 15.27 15.23 15.19
400 14.57 14.58 14.53 14.53 14.59 14.60 14.53 14.52 14.58 14.59 14.53 14.51
500 14.23 14.18 14.09 14.02 14.05 14.17 14.24 14.19 14.08 14.05 14.11 14.19
600 13.99 13.95 13.89 13.86 13.86 13.85 13.86 13.91 13.91 13.86 13.85 13.93
700 13.87 13.87 13.80 13.74 13.76 13.79 13.79 13.77 13.76 13.75 13.76 13.80
800 13.78 13.77 13.70 13.67 13.72 13.77 13.75 13.71 13.69 13.70 13.71 13.74
900 13.68 13.68 13.65 13.64 13.67 13.68 13.66 13.65 13.66 13.66 13.64 13.66
1000 13.66 13.63 13.61 13.62 13.64 13.65 13.66 13.64 13.63 13.63 13.65 13.67
1100 13.65 13.62 13.60 13.62 13.64 13.59 13.55 13.57 13.62 13.62 13.61 13.64
1200 13.60 13.61 13.61 13.62 13.62 13.58 13.56 13.55 13.61 13.61 13.60 13.59
1300 13.58 13.60 13.61 13.61 13.59 13.66 13.72 13.67 13.59 13.58 13.67 13.71
1400 13.58 13.63 13.66 13.60 13.59 13.63 13.60 13.58 13.57 13.57 13.60 13.62
1500 13.64 13.67 13.65 13.60 13.60 13.64 13.66 13.62 13.55 13.61 13.63 13.62

Table 12. Average sea water temperatures at 33 N, 34 E.




















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Depth
(m)
Standard Deviation of Temperature (C)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0 0.497 0.324 0.280 0.274 0.833 0.374 0.716 0.535 0.406 0.786 0.892 0.360
10 0.576 0.261 0.259 0.255 0.761 0.306 0.945 0.703 0.577 0.752 0.958 0.552
20 0.356 0.237 0.254 0.213 0.642 0.701 1.603 1.200 1.001 0.764 1.141 0.379
30 0.292 0.234 0.256 0.240 0.521 0.420 1.088 1.647 1.452 0.767 1.238 0.373
50 0.253 0.238 0.224 0.172 0.349 0.163 0.662 0.818 1.040 1.024 1.270 0.360
75 0.221 0.227 0.213 0.150 0.278 0.163 0.472 0.511 0.495 0.454 0.599 0.428
100 0.241 0.224 0.218 0.114 0.260 0.158 0.391 0.429 0.395 0.355 0.403 0.322
125 0.177 0.257 0.196 0.123 0.238 0.163 0.385 0.216 0.166 0.306 0.279 0.243
150 0.196 0.270 0.157 0.165 0.163 0.116 0.315 0.177 0.181 0.097 0.180 0.149
200 0.107 0.298 0.173 0.225 0.132 0.140 0.381 0.190 0.167 0.113 0.133 0.184
250 0.111 0.000 0.224 0.182 0.244 0.114 0.443 0.217 0.178 0.132 0.191 0.199
300 0.092 0.112 0.257 0.109 0.275 0.113 0.411 0.250 0.161 0.119 0.232 0.192
400 0.073 0.000 0.164 0.170 0.166 0.064 0.240 0.226 0.138 0.082 0.187 0.153
500 0.000 0.000 0.067 0.079 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.026 0.024 0.058 0.033
600 0.000 0.000 0.059 0.035 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.021 0.035 0.022
700 0.000 0.000 0.054 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.016 0.034 0.015
800 0.000 0.000 0.052 0.026 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.014 0.033 0.000
900 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.012 0.008 0.000
1000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.009 0.006 0.000 0.000
1100 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.000
1200 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000
1300 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.000
1400 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Table 13. Standard deviation of temperature at 33 N, 34 E.


9.0 Recommendations

If the structures considered for this project are sensitive to wave period, they should be
checked for all combinations of height and period along the contours calculated in Section
4. When a structure is sensitive to wave period, the best practice is to check combinations
of wave height and period that have the same probability as the maximum wave height.
Using only joint design conditions that only give the most probable associated values is not
sufficient. Structures sensitive to wave period may have a stronger response to equally
probable wave conditions with lower heights and different periods.

The wind and wave statistics transmitted in this report are suitable for preliminary
development purposes. The GROW hindcast data from which they were calculated was
performed on a 0.625 x 1.25 degree grid. Later, for detailed design purposes we
recommend using data from a dedicated high resolution hindcast for the eastern
Mediterranean. Better resolution could remove the errors that come from using a grid
8/29/2011
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point that is in the closest column to the coast. Given the recent increase in oil and gas
activity in the eastern Mediterranean, sharing the cost of a hindcast study with other
operators should be possible. We recommend encouraging Oceanweather to develop a
high resolution eastern Mediterranean hindcast product.

If currents are important for the planned development concept, then hindcast current data
should be purchased and analyzed. The GROW hindcast does not include current data.
The University of Cyprus has six years of hindcast current that is suitable for this project
development area.


10.0 References

Goda, Y. (1985), Random Seas and Design of Marine Structures, University of Tokyo
Press, 323 pp.

NORSOK (1999), Actions and Action Effects, N-003, Rev. 1
http://www.standard.no/standard/index.db2?id=2174.

Oceanweather (2007), Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves (GROW): Project Description,
consultant report to ATP.

Oceanweather (2010), GROW Adjustment Description, consultant report to ATP.

Scott, D.W. (1992), Multivariate Density Estimation, J ohn Wiley and Sons, New York,
317 pp.




Figure 1. Location of the GROW hindcast grid point used in this study.



Figure 2. Extreme value fit to hindcast wind speeds.


Figure 3. Extreme value fit to significant wave heights.



Figure 4. Extreme value contours of significant wave height and peak period.




Figure 5. Scatter plot and regression of significant wave height versus wind speed.



Figure 6. Scatter plot and regression of hourly average wind speed versus significant wave height.


Figure 7. Wind speed and direction rose plot. Directions are from which the wind blows.


Figure 8. Radial plot showing percentiles of wind speed given that the wind is in the direction shown.


Figure 9. Radial plot showing non-exceedance percentiles that the wind is either not from the direction indicated or the wind
speed in that direction is less than the radius to the line.


Figure 10. Wave height and direction rose plot. Directions are toward which the waves propagate.


Figure 11. Contours of significant wave height and peak period for percentile exceedances of wave height.


Figure 12. Percent exceedance of significant wave height for each month and the entire year.



Figure 13. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in J anuary and February.



Figure 14. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in March and April.



Figure 15. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in May and J une.



Figure 16. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in J uly and August.



Figure 17. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in September and October.



Figure 18. Persistence of unfavourable and favourable wave heights in November and December.