TRENDROOM

MACRO TECHNICALS THEMES

Q1 2010
 I. Equities

Equity markets were well bid during the H2 2009 powered by reflation
theme and improving fundamentals (as smart guys think – fundamentals is
not my game anyway)

Going into S&P500 graph we see that overall long term trend is still on the
upside and 50% fibo is about to be broken targeting 1233 area into March-
April 2010 when seasonals for equities will fade away.
 German DAX index – Similar picture as S&P500. Index managed to broke
and close above heavy resistance area 5900. MACD is slightly tired pointing
to a slow grind to the upside. Overall picture remain bullish
SHANGHAI Composite index – China stock markets did not behave in very bullish
fashion in Q4 2009, what are the factors behind this under performance remain to
be seen. Technical picture is very mixed and I prefer to see clear breakout up or
down and then to chase unfolding trend.

Russian RTS index – Index consolidates close to 50% fibo of entire move
down. Technicals are weakening and some caution is needed. Clear
break of 50% fibo is turn MT picture on the upside. Long term trend
remain Bullish.

MSCI Emerging markets still holds upper ground but technicals are
weakening. Maybe we can see a deeper correction in 2010.
The graph below shows the ratio Dow Jones Industrial Average vs Gold.
Very interesting for me and this ratio is turning its long term trend to the
UPSIDE.

II. Bonds
 If you want big profits you need big trends as master ED says. So bonds
(shorting them) is my favorite trend for H1 2010. Bull runs of yields of US 10
year treasury notes usually last around 190-200 bps before entering in
correction mode. 10 year T-note managed to break above channel
resistance around 3.60% and I think we are on the road to 5-5.10% going
into May 2010.
 III. Commodities
Commodities – Everybody loves commodities
Doctor Copper graph below still in uptrend but technicals are tired after 12
month bull run.
GOLD – Long term uptrend remains intact but market correcting ST&MT
overbought conditions.
Light Sweet Crude – Bullish technical picture with higher lows of weekly
graph as shown below. MACD pointing of upward slope sideway trading.
IV. Currencies
EURUSD – Sharp correction for last couple of weeks brought Eurodollar
to very important support area 1.425, support holds at least for now and I
expect overall trend to the upside to resume.
GBPUSD – Consolidation continues and some of technicals start to look a
bit bearish. I would wait for clear breakout of this trading range and the will
chase unfolding trend.
US Dollar index looks for me as correction in long term bear trend. 79 area
is very important any close above weekly MA40 will change overall picture.