June Results Preview | 8 July 2014

Cement
Technology
Company name

Demand recovery continues with ~8% growth

ACC

Upgrading FY16 EPS, led by increase in pricing improvement to ~INR20/bag

Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement

Demand recovery continues; expect ~8% growth for our Cement universe
Cement demand recovery continued in 1QFY15, driven by strong rural housing
demand and partial resolution of sand mining issue. We estimate growth of 8.3%
YoY (decline of 4.5% QoQ) for our Cement universe. Capacity utilization would
remain stable YoY at ~74% (down 4pp QoQ). Cement dealers across regions indicate
improved sentiment and sustenance of demand recovery in 2HFY15.

Pre-monsoon price hikes across markets, estimate INR6/bag QoQ increase

While cement prices retraced from the highs of March-April 2014, especially in
North India, as the Binani plant commenced operations, blended prices were still
higher than in 4QFY14. Overall, we expect weighted average national prices to
increase by INR6/bag QoQ (and INR14/bag YoY) in 1QFY15. This includes specific
trends of (a) ~INR14/bag QoQ average increase in South India, benefiting from upto
~INR100/bag price increase in June 2014, (b) ~INR6/bag increase in West and
Central India, (c) INR3/bag increase in North India, and (d) ~INR4/bag decline in East
India. We now factor in INR12.5/INR20/INR20 per bag increase in realizations in
FY15/FY16/FY17 on back of ~INR5/bag decline in FY14 (v/s earlier assumption of
~INR12.5/12.5/15 per bag increase).

Profitability stable QoQ; south players to enjoy partial benefits of price hike
Profitability is likely to remain stable QoQ, as the benefit of higher price gets offset
by freight cost pressure and negative operating leverage, resulting in EBITDA/ton of
~INR731 (down INR73/ton YoY). While players focused on South India would benefit
significantly from sharp pricing recovery, weak pricing would impact profitability of
players based in North and East India. We estimate EBITDA/ton at
INR795/1,075/1,345 for FY15/FY16/FY17, against ~INR673/ton in FY14.
Valuation and view
While our FY15E EPS has seen downgrades, our assumption of higher pricing change
has led to up to 39% upgrade in FY16E EPS. While demand recovery would be
gradual, slowing capacity addition coupled with higher capex and opex cost would
support cement prices and profitability. Demand recovery would be critical for
operating and stock performance. Among large caps, we prefer ACC, UTCEM and
SRCM, and DBEL, JKCE, JKLC, and PRSC in mid-caps.

Jinesh Gandhi (Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416

Sandipan
8 July 2014Pal (Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Expected quarterly performance summary (INR m)

Sector
Jun-14

Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy

29,833
25,053
8,083
12,999
12,624
34,727
16,345
55,830
195,493

2,656
3,771
392
1,199
-46
59
3,048
6,186
17,264

Var %
QoQ
-13.9
-15.7
20.3
-3.4
Loss
-93.7
34.1
-18.9
-11.4

Source: Company, MOSL

Utilizations fail to improve in a seasonally strong quarter

8.3

6.1

1QFY15E

1.5
4QFY14

3QFY14

3.4
0.4
2QFY14

1QFY14

1.9

1QFY13

4QFY12

-2.0
3QFY13

8.4
2.7
2QFY13

10.4
3QFY12

Volume growth (%)

13.8

9.4
2QFY12

4.3

4.0
1QFY12

2QFY11

1QFY15E

4QFY14

3QFY14

2QFY14

1QFY14

4QFY13

3QFY13

-2

2QFY13

-5

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY11

18

Source: Company, MOSL

Trend in average quarterly cement price (INR/bag)

100%

1QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

1QFY15

3QFY14

1QFY14

3QFY13

1QFY13

3QFY12

1QFY12

3QFY11

1QFY11

3QFY10

1QFY10

Source: Company, MOSL

North

East

West

South

Central

277
279
289
295
281

293
298
264
266
262

60%

275

259
245
245

70%

289

272
271
281
287

269
272
316

80%

294
300
281
295

328
324

2QFY14

307
308

90%

8 July 2014

PAT
Var %
YoY
2.5
16.3
-14.8
-46.8
PL
-71.8
7.2
-8.0
-6.6

Jun-14

Volumes (MT) - RHS

MOSL Universe

13

2QFY12

3,889
5,172
650
1,148
1,342
8,592
4,498
10,203
35,495

Var %
QoQ
6.5
-10.5
17.2
-16.9
81.0
-1.5
5.6
-10.7
-2.8

MOSL cement universe volumes to grow 8% YoY (3% QoQ)

10

1QFY12

Jun-14

6.4

IIP Data

15

EBDITA
Var %
YoY
-10.3
5.1
-2.7
-43.3
-29.7
9.5
18.4
-2.7
-1.4

4QFY13

Cement demand recovery apparent in 1QFY15 (%)

Var %
QoQ
0.5
-5.1
3.9
-15.0
16.9
2.1
-1.5
-4.3
-1.7

3.6

ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements
Jaiprakash Associates
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Sector Aggregate

Rating

Sales
Var %
YoY
6.7
6.8
4.7
13.1
1.9
4.8
13.4
12.6
8.5

3QFY11

CMP
(INR)
1,452
224
418
3,388
116
73
7,276
2,604

National
Average

Source: Company, MOSL

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Realization to improve marginally QoQ, as suggested by price Weaker realizations, cost push and weak operating leverage
trend
to keep profitability under pressure

731
1QFY15E

731
4QFY14

574
3QFY14

805

499

1QFY14

Source: Company, MOSL

2QFY14

780
4QFY13

946
2QFY13

764

1,092
1QFY13

3QFY13

956
4QFY12

812
3QFY12

613

1,019
1QFY12

2QFY12

924

4,369
1QFY15E

605

4,309
4QFY14

4QFY11

4,235
3QFY14

3QFY11

4,160
2QFY14

400

4,302
1QFY14

2QFY11

4,331

4,283
4QFY13

4,499
2QFY13

EBITDA (INR/ton)

3QFY13

4,466
1QFY13

4,207
4QFY12

3,835
2QFY12

4,132

4,038
1QFY12

3QFY12

3,879

3,478
3QFY11

4QFY11

3,262
2QFY11

Realization (INR/ton)

Source: Company, MOSL

Revised EPS estimates (INR)

ACC
Ambuja Cement
UltraTech
Birla Corp
India Cement
Shree Cement
JK lakshmi
Ramco Cement
JK Cement
Orient Cement
Prism Cement
Dalmia Cement

Rev
54.4
7.0
91.3
28.7
2.9
280.2
10.5
9.0
22.6
5.3
0.4
-12.3

FY15E/CY14E
Old
Chg (%)
60.4
-9.9
7.0
-0.3
94.9
-3.7
36.1
-20.6
3.8
-25.7
257.8
8.7
11.4
-7.7
8.4
7.5
18.8
20.2
6.6
-19.5
0.2
106.0
-7.2
71.7

Rev
84.1
9.0
133.0
51.4
10.6
431.1
17.1
15.1
45.3
5.4
6.2
24.4

FY16E/CY15E
Old
79.2
8.1
119.9
49.5
8.2
336.9
12.3
13.4
37.0
4.8
5.1
20.4

Chg (%)
6.2
11.6
10.9
3.9
29.1
28.0
38.7
12.2
22.5
12.6
23.3
19.6

Source: MOSL
Comparative valuation

ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Grasim Industries
India Cements
Jaiprakash Associates
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Dalmia Bharat
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Cem.
Ramco Cements
Prism Cement
Sector Aggregate

8 July 2014

CMP
(INR)
1,452
224
418
3,388
116
73
7,276
2,604
457
394
235
304
73

Rating
FY15E
Buy
54.4
Neutral 7.0
Buy
28.7
Buy
254.7
Neutral 2.9
Buy
1.5
Buy
280.2
Buy
91.3
Buy
-12.3
Buy
22.6
Buy
10.5
Buy
9.0
Buy
0.4

EPS (INR)
PE (x)
EV/EBIDTA (x)
RoE (%)
FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E
84.1 119.9 26.7
17.3
12.1
17.7
10.9
7.0
12.8
18.5
9.0
12.3
32.1
24.8
18.2
21.6
15.6
11.4
14.0
16.8
51.4
77.6
14.6
8.1
5.4
7.9
4.3
2.4
8.3
13.3
370.0 586.0 13.3
9.2
5.8
5.5
3.7
2.4
9.9
12.6
10.6
19.0
40.7
11.0
6.1
9.9
6.4
4.4
2.7
8.2
4.1
5.7
48.2
17.8
12.7
10.5
8.8
7.9
2.4
6.3
431.1 610.3 26.0
16.9
11.9
13.2
8.7
5.8
19.5
24.5
133.0 189.0 28.5
19.6
13.8
16.2
11.1
7.7
13.8
17.4
24.4
82.2 -37.0 18.7
5.6
14.6
7.9
4.8
-3.3
6.5
45.3
76.2
17.4
8.7
5.2
8.5
5.5
3.4
8.7
15.8
17.1
34.3
22.3
13.7
6.9
10.4
6.3
4.0
9.2
13.8
15.1
24.1
33.6
20.1
12.6
14.0
10.1
7.2
8.4
12.9
6.2
11.2 177.9 11.7
6.5
12.7
6.0
3.9
2.0
26.8
26.1
16.2
10.7
12.2
8.4
5.9
9.7
14.0

FY17E
23.5
20.5
17.2
16.8
13.2
8.4
27.2
20.7
19.2
22.5
23.8
18.1
35.6
18.1

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

ACC
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

ACC IN
187.9

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

273 / 5

52-Week Range (INR)

1524 / 912

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-3 / 9 / -16

CMP: INR1,452

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
NP

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

109.1 116.4 137.0 163.0
13.7
13.8
22.7
33.7
9.1

10.2

15.8

22.5

Adj. EPS (INR) 48.6

54.4

84.1

119.9

EPS Gr. (%)

-29.3

12.1

54.6

42.5

BV/Sh (INR)

416.4

434.9

472.5

545.9

RoE (%)

12.0

12.8

18.5

23.5

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

15.3
60.2

15.7
68.8

24.1
55.3

31.3
38.8

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

30.3
3.5

27.0
3.4

17.5
3.1

12.3
2.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6

EV/Ton (x)
133.2

16.4
124.9

10.7
120.6

6.8
113.0

Buy

We expect dispatches to grow 4% YoY (decline 2% QoQ) in 2QCY14 to

6.36m tons. Average realization is likely to grow 2.3% QoQ (+2.5%
YoY) to INR4,404/ton.
Revenue would grow 6.7% YoY (1% QoQ) to INR29.8b. EBITDA margin
would shrink 2.5pp YoY (but expand 0.7pp QoQ) to 13% due to
moderate realization growth. We estimate cement EBITDA/ton at
INR600 (INR102 lower YoY; INR48 higher QoQ).
PAT would grow 2.5% YoY (but decline 14% QoQ) to INR2.65b.
We are cutting our CY14 EPS estimate (ex-synergies) by 9.9% to
INR54.4, while raising our CY15 EPS estimate by 6.2% to INR84.1 to
factor in for deferred recovery and higher pricing in FY15.
The stock trades at 16.2x CY15E EPS, and at an EV of 9.9x CY15E
EBITDA and USD120/ton. Maintain Buy with a target price of
INR1,804 (CY15E EV of USD152/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Progress in ongoing capex for 5m-ton Jamul expansion
Update on synergies and other guided cost saving measures

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E December

(INR Million)
CY13

CY14

CY13

CY14E

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2QE

3QE

4QE

Cement Sales (m ton)

6.42

6.12

5.54

5.85

6.48

6.36

5.76

6.28

23.9

24.89

YoY Change (%)

-4.5

1.2

2.6

-1.5

0.9

4.0

4.0

7.4

-0.7

4.0

4,269

4,298

4,235

4,307

4,304

4,404

4,304

4,554

4,278

4,393

YoY Change (%)

0.9

-5.7

-5.9

3.4

0.8

2.5

1.6

5.7

-1.8

2.7

QoQ Change (%)

2.5

0.7

-1.5

1.7

-0.1

2.3

-2.3

5.8

0.0

0.0

29,111

27,952

25,087

26,934

29,671

29,833

26,500

30,444

109,084

116,448

2.4

1.4

3.2

-13.1

1.9

6.7

5.6

13.0

-2.0

6.8

4,468

4,335

2,254

2,626

3,653

3,889

2,110

4,123

13,683

13,776

15.3

15.5

9.0

9.8

12.3

13.0

8.0

13.5

12.5

11.8

1,383

1,387

1,444

1,526

1,366

1,400

1,440

1,448

5,740

5,654

Cement Realization

Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest

108

179

110

120

108

106

106

104

517

425

Other Income

1,205

908

1,023

1,438

1,668

1,000

1,200

1,382

4,573

5,250

PBT before EO Item

4,182

3,677

1,722

2,419

3,848

3,383

1,764

3,953

12,000

12,947

PBT after EO Item

5,861

3,677

1,722

3,178

4,975

3,383

1,764

3,953

14,437

14,075

Tax

1,484

1,086

514

396

988

727

379

861

3,479

2,956

Rate (%)

25.3

29.5

29.8

12.5

19.9

21.5

21.5

21.8

24.1

21.0

Reported PAT

4,377

2,591

1,208

2,781

3,987

2,656

1,384

3,092

10,958

11,119

Adjusted PAT

3,124

2,591

1,208

2,117

3,084

2,656

1,384

3,092

9,108

10,228

Margins (%)

10.7

9.3

4.8

7.9

10.4

8.9

5.2

10.2

8.3

8.8

-19.1

-38.0

-51.4

-11.5

-1.3

2.5

14.6

46.0

-29.5

12.3

YoY Change (%)

E: MOSL Estimates; * Merger of RMC business from 4QCY12

8 July 2014

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Ambuja Cements
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

ACEM IN
1979.3

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

443 / 7

52-Week Range (INR)

CMP: INR224

244 / 148

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-7 / 1 / -15

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

90.9
99.2 114.6 136.5
15.5
18.7
25.8
35.0

NP

10.5

13.8

Adj. EPS (INR)

17.9

24.3

6.8

7.0

9.0

12.3

EPS Gr. (%)

-32.4

2.9

29.7

36.1

BV/Sh. (INR)

61.2

51.5

56.0

63.8

RoE (%)

11.5

14.0

16.8

20.5

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

16.3
49.9

19.0
55.7

23.7
50.2

28.9
36.9

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

32.7
3.6

31.8
4.3

24.5
4.0

18.0
3.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.0

EV/Ton (USD) 173.3

21.0
224.5

14.8
218.0

10.6
211.1

Neutral

We expect dispatches to grow 3% YoY (decline 7% QoQ) to 5.62m

tons in 2QCY14. Average realization would grow 3.7% YoY (1.8% QoQ)
to INR4,456/ton. We estimate revenue at INR25.1b (up 6.8% YoY, but
down 5% QoQ).
EBITDA margin would remain flat YoY (decline 1.3pp QoQ) to 20.6%.
We estimate EBITDA/ton at ~INR920 (up INR19/ton YoY; down
INR38/ton QoQ).
Adjusted PAT is likely to grow 16% YoY (decline 16% QoQ) to INR3.8b.
We are raising our CY15 EPS estimate (ex-synergies) by 11.6% to
factor in higher realizations. Our CY14 EPS estimate is unchanged.
Maintain Neutral with a target price of INR247 (CY15E EV of
USD160/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Progress in ongoing mining land acquisition and capex in 4.5m-ton
Nagaur (Rajasthan) plant.

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)
CY13

Y/E December
Sales Volume (m ton)*
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp)
PBT after EO Exp/(Inc)
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported Profit
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)

1Q
5.96
-3.6
4,271
0.3
-0.5
25,448
-3.3
5,118
20.1
1,204
132
1,339
5,121
1,741
6,862
1,983
28.9
4,879
3,641
-28.3

2Q
5.46
-3.1
4,297
-5.7
0.6
23,457
-8.6
4,920
21.0
1,223
171
1,051
4,578
0
4,578
1,336
29.2
3,242
3,242
-30.9

CY14
3Q
4.89
2.0
4,103
-9.2
-4.5
20,049
-7.4
2,554
12.7
1,246
178
940
2,070
481
2,551
891
34.9
1,660
1,346
-60.1

4Q
5.29
-1.8
4,142
-3.5
0.9
21,913
-5.3
2,890
13.2
1,228
169
1,019
2,512
1,046
3,558
393
11.0
3,165
2,234
-2.8

1Q
6.03
1.2
4,376
2.5
5.6
26,398
3.7
5,776
21.9
1,197
161
1,414
5,832
948
6,780
1,579
23.3
5,200
4,473
22.9

2QE
5.62
3.0
4,456
3.7
1.8
25,053
6.8
5,172
20.6
1,225
160
1,175
4,962
0
4,962
1,191
24.0
3,771
3,771
16.3

3QE
5.03
3.0
4,356
6.1
-2.2
21,920
9.3
3,224
14.7
1,275
160
1,100
2,889
0
2,889
693
24.0
2,196
2,196
63.1

4QE
5.67
7.1
4,556
10.0
4.6
25,820
17.8
4,522
17.5
1,272
160
1,311
4,400
0
4,400
1,057
24.0
3,343
3,343
49.6

CY13
0
21.60
-1.8
4,207
-4.4
0.0
90,868
46.1
15,482
17.0
4,901
651
4,349
14,280
3,269
17,549
4,603
26.2
12,946
10,464
-32.2

CY14E
0
22.36
3.5
4,437
5.5
0.0
99,191
40.2
18,694
18.8
4,969
641
5,000
18,084
948
19,031
4,521
23.8
14,510
13,788
31.8

E: MOSL Estimates

8 July 2014

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Birla Corporation
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

BCORP IN
77.0

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

32 / 1

52-Week Range (INR)

CMP: INR418

429 / 191

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

4 / 32 / 46

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
NP

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

29.7
33.3
38.5
43.5
2.1
3.2
5.8
8.5
1.3

2.2

4.0

6.0

Adj. EPS (INR) 16.9

28.7

51.4

77.6

EPS Gr. (%)

-51.9

70.1

79.3

50.9

BV/Sh. (INR) 328.0

346.2

386.0

452.0

RoE (%)

5.1

8.3

13.3

17.2

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

6.1
55.5

9.0
36.5

14.0
22.6

18.1
15.0

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

24.8
1.3

14.6
1.2

8.1
1.1

5.4
0.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5

EV/Ton (x)
43.4

7.4
42.6

3.8
39.9

2.1
31.7

Buy

We expect volumes to grow 6% YoY (3.9% QoQ) to 1.98m tons in

1QFY15. Average realization is likely to grow 1.6% YoY (decline 1.3%
QoQ) to INR3,813/ton.
EBITDA margin would shrink 0.7pp YoY (but expand 0.9pp QoQ) to
8%. EBITDA/ton (including non-cement business) is likely to decline by
INR29 YoY (but increase by ~INR37 QoQ).
We estimate PAT at INR392m, down 14.8% YoY.
We are cutting our EPS estimate for FY15 by 21% to factor in lower
realizations for the year, but raising our EPS estimate for FY16 by
3.9% to factor in better realizations.
The stock trades at 8.1x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 3.8x FY16E EBITDA
and USD40/ton. We maintain Buy, with a target price of INR566
(FY16E EV of USD60/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Timeline and clarity on Rajasthan Mining permission

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)
FY14

Y/E March
Cement Sales (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Cement Realization
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Profit before Tax
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
EO Income/(Expense)
PAT
Margins (%)
YoY Change (%)

1Q
1.87
14.8
3,864
-3.9
7.9
7,720
17.3
668
8.7
302
207
367
525
66
12.5
460
0
460
6.0
-45.7

2Q
1.85
17.3
3,541
-10.0
-8.3
7,107
13.3
585
8.2
311
249
422
448
32
7.1
416
0
416
5.9
-48.2

FY15
3Q
1.81
16.5
3,579
-5.4
1.1
7,098
15.9
299
4.2
319
202
323
101
-59
-58.0
160
0
160
2.3
-50.4

4Q
1.91
11.6
3,753
4.8
4.8
7,780
16.9
555
7.1
393
198
485
448
186
41.6
262
-109
326
4.2
-55.1

1QE
1.98
6.0
3,813
-1.3
1.6
8,083
4.7
650
8.0
360
200
400
490
98
20.0
392
0
392
4.8
-14.8

2QE
1.96
6.0
3,713
4.8
-2.6
7,818
10.0
555
7.1
365
205
450
435
87
20.0
348
0
348
4.5
-16.3

3QE
1.95
8.0
3,913
9.3
5.4
8,169
15.1
885
10.8
380
215
350
640
128
20.0
512
0
512
6.3
220.4

4QE
2.06
8.0
4,212
12.2
7.6
9,203
18.3
1,118
12.1
391
222
690
1,194
239
20.0
955
0
955
10.4
193.1

FY14
0
7.43
15.0
3,686
-3.7
0.0
29,705
15.9
2,107
7.1
1,326
856
1,598
1,523
225
14.8
1,298
-109
1,391
4.7
-48.5

FY15
0
7.96
7.0
3,916
6.2
0.0
33,273
12.0
3,208
9.6
1,496
842
1,890
2,759
552
20.0
2,207
0
2,207
6.6
58.7

E: MOSL Estimates

8 July 2014

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Grasim Industries
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

GRASIM IN
91.7

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

311 / 5

52-Week Range (INR)

CMP: INR3,388

3755 / 2121

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-3 / 4 / -13

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

290.0 323.8 380.8 445.1
45.9
52.9
76.0 103.6
27.6

31.9

46.6

73.9

Adj. EPS (INR) 215.1

254.7

370.0

586.0

-26.1

18.4

45.3

58.4

BV/Sh. (INR) 2,354

2,584

2,928

3,485

EPS Gr. (%)

RoE (%)

9.1

9.9

12.6

16.8

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

12.9
10.1

14.4
9.5

19.5
7.0

24.2
5.0

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

14.3
1.3

12.1
1.2

8.3
1.1

5.3
0.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4

EV/Ton (x)
106.6

7.5
109.8

5.0
94.8

3.2
76.3

Buy

VSF volumes are likely to grow 10% YoY (but decline 14% QoQ) to
85,270 tons. VSF realizations would to decline by ~INR1/kg QoQ to
INR118.15/kg.
We are assuming price of INR121/kg in FY15 and INR124/kg in FY16.
Standalone EBITDA margin is likely to decline 8.8pp YoY (but remain
stable QoQ) to 13.3%.
EBITDA would decline by 56% YoY (12% QoQ) to INR1.1b, translating
into PAT of INR1.2b, down 47% YoY.
We cut our consolidated EPS estimate by 13% for FY15 but raise our
consolidated EPS estimate by 9.5% for FY16 to factor in deferred
realization uptick in FY16 in both cement and VSF.
The stock trades at 9.2x FY16E consolidated EPS, and at an EV of 5.4x
FY16E EBITDA and USD103/ton. Maintain Buy, with a target price of
INR4,173 (FY16-based SOTP).

Key issues to watch for

Outlook on VSF business and strategy to utilize upcoming
capacities (~47% capacity growth)
Outlook on cement demand and pricing, and status of capacity
addition

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E March
VSF Volume (ton)
YoY Change (%)
VSF Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Items
Extraordinary Inc/(Exp)
PBT after EO Items
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
YoY Change (%)

1Q
77,518
0.7
116,501
-9.0
-2.2
11,489
-7.3
9,464
2,025
17.6
484
78
958
2,420
8
2,429
167
6.9
2,261
2,254
-17.4

(INR Million
FY14
2Q
3Q
93,025
97,049
9.0
23.5
121,590 121,590
-4.0
-0.1
4.4
0.0
14,055
14,558
4.5
19.8
11,443
12,613
2,613
1,945
18.6
13.4
530
547
95
134
2,213
492
4,201
1,757
184
27
4,385
1,783
250
522
5.7
29.3
4,135
1,261
3,962
1,242
3.5
-37.3

4Q
99,385
4.4
119,150
0.0
-2.0
15,284
11.0
13,902
1,382
9.0
635
109
835
1,472
72
1,544
242
15.7
1,303
1,242
-41.7

1QE
85,270
10.0
118,150
1.4
-0.8
12,999
13.1
11,850
1,148
8.8
650
120
1,000
1,378
0
1,378
179
13.0
1,199
1,199
-46.8

FY15
2QE
3QE
102,328 109,665
10.0
13.0
119,150 120,150
-2.0
-1.2
0.8
0.8
15,288
16,047
8.8
10.2
13,794
14,423
1,493
1,625
9.8
10.1
700
720
125
125
2,000
750
2,668
1,530
0
0
2,668
1,530
347
199
13.0
13.0
2,322
1,331
2,322
1,331
-41.4
7.2

4QE
114,736
15.4
125,058
5.0
4.1
17,275
13.0
14,949
2,325
13.5
726
125
1,000
2,474
0
2,474
322
13.0
2,153
2,153
73.4

FY14

FY15

366,977
9.2
119,854
-3.1
0.0
55,386
6.9
47,422
7,964
14.4
2,196
415
4,497
9,850
291
10,141
1,181
11.6
8,960
8,703
-18.1

411,999
12.3
120,854
0.8
0.0
61,608
11.2
55,017
6,591
10.7
2,796
495
4,750
8,050
0
8,050
2,093
26.0
5,957
5,957
-31.5

E: MOSL Estimates

8 July 2014

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

India Cements
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

ICEM IN
307.2

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

36 / 1

52-Week Range (INR)

1 / 72 / 73

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
44.4
50.0
59.1
69.9
5.4
7.1
10.3
13.6

NP

-0.5

1.0

3.3

5.7

Adj. EPS (INR)

-7.9

2.9

10.6

19.0

-235.7 -136.2

269.8

79.7

133.6

148.7

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)

125.4

126.4

-1.3

2.7

8.2

13.2

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

4.2
0.0

6.4
68.9

10.8
32.7

14.8
18.7

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

-14.7
0.9

40.7
0.9

11.0
0.9

6.1
0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.0

EV/Ton (USD) 78.5

9.4
78.1

6.1
72.9

4.2
65.9

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)

Y/E March
Sales Dispatches (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
E: MOSL Estimates

8 July 2014

131 / 43

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA

CMP: INR116

1Q
2.65
11.3
4,188
-6.2
-0.8
12,384
3.1
1,910
15.4
680
999
25
257
0
257
89
34.6
168
168
-77.5
1.4

Neutral

We expect volumes to grow 3% YoY (3% QoQ) to 2.73m tons. Strong

uptick in prices in June 2014 should aid 1QFY15 realizations. We
expect 0.5% YoY decline (but 5% QoQ increase) in realizations to
INR4,209/ton.
We estimate EBITDA at INR1.34b, up 81% QoQ. EBITDA margin is
likely to shrink 4.8pp YoY (but expand 3.7pp QoQ) to 10.6%,
translating into net loss of INR46m (v/s INR480m in 4QFY14).
Pure Cements EBITDA/ton is likely to increase by ~INR108/ton QoQ
to INR375/ton.
We are revising our EPS estimates for FY15/FY16 by -26%/+29% to
factor in deferred uptick in cement realizations in FY16.
The stock trades at 11x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 6.1x FY16E EBITDA
and USD73/ton. Maintain Neutral, with a target price of INR126
(FY16E EV of USD75/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Demand and pricing outlook, especially in South India
Expected timeline and potential cost savings from captive coal
block in Indonesia and AP power plant
Timeline and capex plan for TN expansion of 2.6m tons

(INR Million
FY14
2Q
3Q
2.44
2.29
-2.9
-5.2
4,116
4,429
-5.5
1.5
-1.7
7.6
10,859
10,365
-3.3
-4.2
1,276
1,444
11.7
13.9
682
686
988
773
80
19
-314
4
0
0
-314
4
-89
0
28.3
0.0
-225
4
-225
4
-145.9
-98.4
-2.1
0.0

4QE
2.65
-4.4
4,009
-5.0
-9.5
10,801
-9.3
742
6.9
716
778
272
-480
1,091
-1,571
0
0.0
-1,571
-480
-282.2
-4.4

1QE
2.73
3.0
4,209
0.5
5.0
12,624
1.9
1,342
10.6
680
750
30
-58
0
-58
-12
20.0
-46
-46
-127.4
-0.4

FY15
2QE
2.56
5.0
4,609
12.0
9.5
12,483
15.0
1,989
15.9
700
800
50
539
0
539
108
20.0
431
431
-291.5
3.5

3QE
2.45
7.0
4,409
-0.4
-4.3
11,107
7.2
1,444
13.0
706
825
60
-27
0
-27
-5
20.0
-22
-22
-622.1
-0.2

4QE
2.91
9.5
4,609
15.0
4.5
13,757
27.4
2,373
17.3
710
852
30
841
0
841
168
20.0
673
673
-240.2
4.9

FY14E

FY15E

10.04
-0.2
4,178
-4.2
0.0
44,409
-3.4
5,371
12.1
2,764
3,537
396
-533
1,091
-1,624
0
0.0
-1,624
-533
-130.2
-1.2

10.65
6.1
4,460
6.8
0.0
49,972
12.5
7,148
14.3
2,796
3,227
170
1,296
0
1,296
259
20.0
1,036
1,036
-294.5
2.1

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Shree Cement
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

SRCM IN
34.8

CMP: INR7,276

Buy

We expect 4QFY14 cement volumes to grow 22% YoY (12% QoQ) to

3.86m tons (including clinker) and realizations to grow 9.7% YoY
52-Week Range (INR)
7982 / 3413
(1.6% QoQ) to INR3,925/ton. Moderate rise in realizations and
1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)
-4 / 41 / 26
benefit of positive operating leverage QoQ would lead to Cement
business profitability at INR1,139/ton (up INR63/ton QoQ).
Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)
We estimate merchant power sales at 368m units (v/s 536m units
Y/E March
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
QoQ and 795m QoQ) at ~INR3.3/unit (v/s INR3.3/unit in 3QFY14 and
Sales
58.6
70.7
85.8 102.9
INR3.88/unit in 4QFY13). Power EBITDA contribution would be
EBITDA
13.9
18.4
25.4
33.7
INR104m (v/s INR130m in 4QFY13 and INR840m in 3QFY14). Adjusted
NP
8.2
9.8
15.0
21.3
PAT would be INR3b (v/s INR2.8b in 4QFY13 and INR2.3b in 3QFY14).
Adj EPS (INR) 236.7 280.2 431.1 610.3
We are raising our EPS estimates by 8.7% for FY15 and 28% for FY16
EPS Gr. (%)
-17.9
18.4
53.9
41.6
to factor in higher volumes and realizations.
BV/Sh. (INR) 1,312 1,562 1,958 2,534

The stock trades at 16.9x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 8.7x FY15E

RoE (%)
19.6
19.5
24.5
27.2
EBITDA and USD162/ton. Buy with a target price of INR8,250 (FY16E
RoCE (%)
19.6
22.0
27.2
31.1
Payout (%)
11.9
10.8
8.1
5.7
EV of USD190/ton).
Valuations
Key issues to watch for
P/E (x)
30.7
26.0
16.9
11.9
Volume and pricing outlook for North India
P/BV (x)
5.5
4.7
3.7
2.9
Pet coke price trend and update on any forward agreements for
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.4
13.2
8.7
5.8
merchant power
EV/Ton (USD) 197.7 174.1 161.9 143.2
Update on planned expansion and progress in capex plans
M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

253 / 4

Quarterly performance

(INR Million)

Y/E June
Sales Dispat. (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Realization (INR/Ton)
YoY Change (%)
QoQ Change (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Exp
Extra-Ord Expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E:MOSL Estimates

8 July 2014

1Q
3.04
22.4
3,815
12.2
1.7
12,964
52.2
3,902
30.1
942
543
328
2,745
10
2,736
454
16.6
2,281
2,289
438.0

FY13
2Q
3Q
3.00
3.26
5.2
-6.2
3,724
3,498
4.1
-1.7
-2.4
-6.1
14,281
14,281
19.4
0.3
3,717
4,058
26.0
28.4
818
1,265
563
447
323
572
2,659
2,918
120
1
2,539
2,917
365
176
14.4
6.0
2,174
2,741
2,277
2,741
284.6
85.2

4Q
3.17
-6.0
3,578
-4.6
2.3
14,414
0.4
3,800
26.4
1,332
378
913
3,003
0
3,002
159
5.3
2,843
2,843
-19.1

1Q
3.26
7.2
3,334
-12.6
-6.8
12,475
-3.8
2,494
20.0
1,139
312
740
1,783
11
1,773
50
2.8
1,722
1,732
-24.3

FY14
2Q
3.44
14.7
3,430
-7.9
2.9
13,170
-7.8
2,694
20.5
1,156
309
111
1,339
32
1,308
153
11.7
1,155
1,183
-48.0

3Q
3.84
17.8
3,863
10.4
12.6
16,600
16.2
4,261
25.7
1,667
363
546
2,777
59
2,719
494
18.2
2,225
2,273
-17.1

4QE
3.86
21.8
3,925
9.7
1.6
16,345
13.4
4,498
27.5
1,639
394
804
3,269
-48
3,317
225
6.8
3,093
3,048
7.2

FY13

FY14E

12.46
-16.2
3,628
3.4
0.0
55,671
-4.0
15,378
27.6
4,356
1,931
2,114
11,205
11
11,194
1,155
10.3
10,040
10,049
59.6

14.39
15.5
3,656
0.8
0.0
58,590
5.2
13,947
23.8
5,600
1,378
2,200
9,169
0
9,169
921
10.1
8,248
8,248
-17.9

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

Ultratech Cement
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)

UTCEM IN
274.0

M. Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)

714 / 12

52-Week Range (INR)

CMP: INR2,604

2868 / 1405

1,6,12 Rel Perf. (%)

-3 / 26 / 3

Financial and Valuation Summary (INR b)

Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj EPS (INR)

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

200.8 234.6 280.8 334.1
36.2
44.2
62.8
85.9
20.7

25.0

36.5

51.8

75.6

91.3

133.0

189.0

EPS Gr. (%)

-21.2

20.8

45.7

42.1

BV/Sh (INR)

623.5

703.1

823.4

998.4

RoE (%)

12.8

13.8

17.4

20.7

RoCE (%)
Payout (%)

14.4
13.5

15.9
12.7

20.9
9.6

26.2
7.4

Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)

34.5
4.2

28.5
3.7

19.6
3.2

13.8
2.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 18.7

EV/Ton (USD) 191.7

15.5
193.7

10.9
185.5

7.4
171.2

Hold

We expect cement volumes to grow 14.7% YoY (but decline 5% QoQ)

to 11.57m tons. Realizations are likely to grow 3.1% QoQ (but decline
2.2% QoQ) to INR4,032/ton.
White cement volumes and realizations are likely to grow 8.8% YoY
and 12% YoY, respectively. RMC volumes and realizations would grow
7.1% YoY and 2% YoY, respectively.
We estimate EBITDA/ton at INR871 (down INR55/ton QoQ). EBITDA
margin would decline by 2.9pp YoY (and 1.3pp QoQ) to 18.3%.
EBITDA is likely to de-grow 3% YoY (and 11% QoQ) to INR10.2b,
translating into PAT de-growth of 8% YoY to INR6.2b.
We are revising our FY15/FY16 EPS estimates by -3.7%/+10.9% to
factor in deferred uptick in realizations.
The stock trades at 19.6x FY16E EPS, and at an EV of 10.9x FY16E
EBITDA and USD185/ton. Maintain Buy, with a target price of
INR2,906 (EV of FY16E USD200/ton).

Key issues to watch for

Volume growth recovery and outlook
Cement pricing outlook and sustainability
Progress and timeline of JPA deal
Update on financial performance of Star Cement, UAE

Quarterly Performance

(INR Million)

Y/E March
1Q
10.09
-2.3

FY14
2Q
3Q
9.23
9.98
-0.6
0.4

4Q
12.18
9.4

Sales (m ton)
YoY Change (%)
Grey Cement
Realn.(INR/ton) *
4,120
3,973
3,936
3,912
YoY Change (%)
0.0
-5.8
-2.8
-2.5
QoQ Change (%)
2.7
-3.6
-0.9
-0.6
Net Sales
49,575 45,021 47,864 58,319
YoY Change (%)
-2.3
-4.2
-1.5
8.2
EBITDA
10,491
6,597
7,641 11,429
Margins (%)
21.2
14.7
16.0
19.6
Depreciation
2,521
2,573
2,645
2,785
Interest
660
888
905
739
Other Income
1,882
574
996
1,858
PBT before EO expense
9,192
3,711
5,088
9,763
Extra-Ord expense
0
0
0
-956
PBT after EO Expense
9,192
3,711
5,088 10,719
Tax
2,466
1,070
1,391
2,340
Rate (%)
26.8
28.8
27.3
21.8
Reported PAT
6,726
2,641
3,698
8,379
Adj PAT
6,726
2,641
3,698
7,632
YoY Change (%)
-13.6
-52.0
-38.5
5.1
E: MOSL Estimates; * Grey cement realization is our estimate
8 July 2014

1Q
11.57
14.7
4,032
-2.2
3.1
55,830
12.6
10,203
18.3
2,850
800
1,750
8,303
0
8,303
2,117
25.5
6,186
6,186
-8.0

FY15E
2Q
3Q
10.16
11.18
10.0
12.0
3,932
-1.0
-2.5
49,250
9.4
6,050
12.3
3,000
825
800
3,025
0
3,025
771
25.5
2,254
2,254
-14.7

4,182
6.2
6.4
57,013
19.1
10,437
18.3
3,200
835
1,000
7,402
0
7,402
1,887
25.5
5,514
5,514
49.1

4Q
13.33
9.4

FY14

FY15E

41.5
2.0

46.2
11.5

4,493
3,982
4,179
14.9
-2.9
4.9
7.5
0.0
0.0
72,513 200,779 234,606
24.3
0.3
16.8
17,948 36,160 44,638
24.8
18.0
19.0
3,348 10,523 12,398
855
3,192
3,315
1,600
5,310
5,150
15,345 27,755 34,076
0
-956
0
15,345 28,711 34,076
3,913
7,266
8,689
25.5
25.3
25.5
11,432 21,445 25,386
11,432 20,731 25,386
49.8
-21.9
22.5

10

June 2014 Results Preview | Sector: Cement

NOTES

8 July 2014

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