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Indonesia's New President: What Does The Future Hold?
Indonesia's New President: What Does The Future Hold?
Indonesia's New President: What Does The Future Hold?
President
What does the future hold?
Indonesia at a glance.
CONTENTS
1. Indonesias new president
and political landscape
2. The presidential inbox: key
issues for Jokowis first 100
days
3. An introduction to our
corporate & public affairs
practice
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October 1st. The new government will then have to work with the new parliament
to get legislation through, and this is where the new challenges will truly lie (as if
it has been easy by then!) Indonesian parliamentary politics is multi-party and
based on loose coalitions and compromise. This is a democratic system that
was constructed to provide checks and balances on presidential power and
prevent a return to centralized and authoritarian presidential rule. Jokowi will
have to work with the new parliament to govern in a truly effective way. Between
today and October 20th political alliances will rise and fall and it is yet possible
that we may see a completely different parliamentary coalition supporting the
new President.
This is a huge achievement for such a young democracy born after the riots and
mass protests which unseated Suhartos New Order regime in 1998, after 32
years of authoritarian rule. It is also a sign that democracy is now fully
entrenched in the Indonesian psyche and a rejection of the past. Jokowis
presidential rival, Prabowo, previously served as a top General to Suharto and
was previously married to his daughter Titiek Suharto. This election has broken
with past traditions that have favored old political elites and military generals,
and suggests that Indonesias local leaders can now rise to the very top.
On Jokowis desk when he walks into the State Palace will be a number of policy
challenges, among them regulatory uncertainty in both the mining and oil and
gas sectors, continued widespread corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency and
infrastructure bottlenecks, and an economy which has slowed over the last year.
Jokowi was also elected on a mandate that he would provide better basic
services in education and health for Indonesias poor, and tackle grinding
poverty which still affects millions across the archipelago, especially in more
rural areas. We expect healthcare to be the centerpiece of his first 100 days, but
equally he must also tackle the level of fuel subsidy which is about to break its
statutory limits (as a percentage of GDP): technically he can be impeached if
this happens, but Jokowi has already pledged to cut the subsidy in his first 100
days in office. It has been a dramatic election season, but the political drama is
only just beginning.
The election has not been without controversy. A few hours before Jokowi was
officially declared the election winner, candidate Prabowo gave a televised press
conference denouncing the Election Commission and alleging widespread voting
electoral fraud. Although not presenting evidence of this on a scale that would
likely make a significant impact, Prabowos camp now will launch an appeal to
Indonesias Constitutional Court, which will rule on the evidence and make a
final verdict - which cannot be overturned - by August 20th. Orthodox opinion is
that a ruling that overturns the KPUs decision is unlikely given President-elect
Widodos 8 million vote margin, however, this is Indonesia. The old parliament
(DPR) staggers on until September 30th and is dominated by Widodos political
enemies; they still may plan to cause all manner of issues that could disrupt the
current process as it is.
President-elect Jokowi is due to be sworn in on October 20th, a few days after
Indonesias new legislators take their seats in the Indonesian parliament on
Stephen Lock
CEO Edelman Indonesia & Head of
Public Affairs, Southeast Asia
October: Likely announcement of key ministries just prior to accession of the new president to office, with
some horse-trading for final ministerial and vice-ministerial posts completed as DPR ruling coalitions shift
and finalize. (There is an outside chance President-elect Widodo will have a minority coalition in the DPR)
October 20th: Joint session of both parts of parliament confirm the President of the Republic of Indonesia
Joko Widodo:
Indonesias 7th President
Joko Widodo has been a true outlier of the Indonesian political scene. From humble
beginnings as a successful furniture retailer, Jokowi, as he is popularly known, was the highly
successful Mayor of the relatively small city of Solo (since 2005) where he transformed a city
racked by crime and a reputation as a terrorist hotspot into a regional center for arts and
culture, which has started to attract international tourism. His campaign against corruption
earned him the description of being the most honest politician in Indonesia. Joko Widodos
victory over Jakartas incumbent governor Fauzi Bowo in 2012 was largely due to his track
record as mayor of his home town and his reputation for honesty and humility. This reputation
has carried him through to the state palace in a country where politicians are often distant
from the people in their daily dealings and frequently corrupt.
During his time in Jakarta, his hands on, street politics style of governing has won him
plaudits and great affection. Jokowi is famous for spot checks and frequent daily ground
visits to communities, government institutions and projects. This style has also been crudely
replicated by other national level politicians, keen to obtain a more populist image. During his
time governing Jakarta, his introduction of health cards (where the poor can receive free
access to basic healthcare) has been his most lasting legacy. He has also made inroads in
shaking up bureaucracy and improving Jakartas woeful public transport system, with the
introduction of upgraded and a greater number of Trans-Jakarta buses, and the start of an
ambitious MRT system.
Although in power for a short time, his national popularity has remained strong and resilient,
despite a dent in his poll ratings during a highly competitive and controversial election race.
He managed to endure attacks on his character and smear campaigns, and prove himself
capable in presidential debates, eventually winning the election with 53 percent of the vote,
despite a highly organized and well-funded Prabowo campaign.
The nation now expects change and for him to bring his can do attitude and municipal
management to the national level. He is likely to make social issues such as healthcare,
education and combating poverty the major focus of his administration. Fighting corruption
and reforming bureaucracy will also be on the agenda; Indonesians will expect to see
progress on this front, after a previous governing administration that was embroiled in
multiple corruption scandals.
Megawati Sukarnoputri was vice president of the republic from 1999 to 2001 and (after president
Abdurrahman Wahid had to step down) president from 2001 to 2004.
The party has a functioning infrastructure with branches all over the country but with strongholds and
higher election results in Java and Bali.
After 10 years in opposition, Megawatis PDI-P is now in power with Joko Widodo as the President of
Indonesia. Megawati will still wield considerable influence behind the scenes and will remain as a key
political power broker. She also may act as a gatekeeper to Indonesias new president. A key issue when
Jokowi takes office will be how independently he can act and if Megawati is really willing to take a back
seat.
Aeran Ismail
Director, Corporate and Public
Affairs
Of the total 560 seats in the House of Representatives, PDI-P secured 109
seats. PDI-P are backed by Hanura, NasDem and PKB, while for the time
being the opposition are made up of Golkar, Gerindra, PPP, PKS, PAN and
Demokrat.
Indonesias next government will not be dominated by a strong majority,
instead it will be a government of multiple coalitions once more. This means
that a Jokowi administration, will be much more constrained in pushing new
policies and reforms through the DPR and getting stuff done. He will have to
compromise and make deals with other parties. The new parliament will be
challenging for the new administration to work with. This also makes radical
or large-scale reforms much more unlikely.
Opposition parties to the biggest party, PDI-P, also recently passed a revision
to the law on legislative assemblies (UU MD3) which means that the PDI-P
(although the largest of the parliamentary parties) will not automatically
obtain the powerful and important speaker post, as has been the norm in
previous governments. This just goes to show the fractious future that the
new parliament will face. This said, we have seen signs that current
coalitions are likely to realign and evolve once Jokowi takes the reigns of
power.
The expectations that a Jokowi government can push through new reforms
and shake-up Indonesias political process maybe optimistic. Politics and
policy making will very much be the art of the possible.
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Source: Jakarta Globe
Economic Reforms
Construct sea toll roads
Irrigation dams
Promote industrial development
for plantation owners and
midsize businesses
Infrastructure
JOKOWIS
CAMPAIGN
PROMISES
Reevaluate FTAs
Manage food imports
A revision of oil and gas laws
Restrict outsourcing in state-owned
enterprises
Streamline business licenses
Mining operations to benefit local
communities
Policy
Agriculture
Energy Sustainability
Jobs
Accessibility
Improve professionalism in
the public sector
Raise salaries and improve
welfare of civil servants,
military, and police
Provide universal access to
education with an
Indonesia Smart Card
Provide free health services
with an Indonesia Health
Card
Anti-corruption
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Corruption
Transparency International
Corruption Perceptions Index 2013
Indonesia ranks 114 globally
Foreign ownership:
Foreign ownership of banks is capped at 40
percent.
Foreign ownership of telecommunication
providers is capped at 65 percent for suppliers of
value-added and mobile telecommunications
services and 49 percent for suppliers of fixed
network services.
Labor issues: The low productivity of the workforce
amid demand for higher wages has increased
tensions in manufacturing based industries. The
minimum wage has increased by 30 percent from
2010 to 2013, the highest in the region, compared
to Thailands 14.2 percent, China 8.4 percent,
Vietnam 6.7 percent and Malaysia 3.3 percent.
Indonesias labor productivity on the other hand
only grew by 2.8 percent per year from 1980 to
2012, while Thailand grew by 3.6 percent.
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Indonesias rapidly growing middle class are fuel thirsty, with millions of new cars and
motorcycles coming onto the road each year. This is currently supported by an unsustainable
untargeted energy subsidy which mainly benefits richer Indonesians and is estimated to cost the
government $33 billion in 2014 around 15% of the state budget (more than infrastructure,
health and education spending). It is also the main reason for a growing current account deficit
predicted to be 2.8% of GDP this year. Gone are the 1980s were Indonesia was a leading oil
exporter, today it imports oil at an increasing cost. These factors and the heavy burden on the
state budget have led Jokowi and his Vice President, Jusuf Kalla, to declare that the new
administration will cut fuel subsidies in their first 100 days of office.
Cutting the fuel subsidy is not only vital for Indonesia to balance the books, it is also a statutory
requirement. Currently the law caps the state budget deficit at 3% of GDP, so with the increasing
cost of the subsidy and more and more fuel consumption, plus the threat of global oil price rises
and rupiah depreciation, the next government will have to cut the subsidy. Alternative options
include cutting spending in other areas, which is equally difficult considering Jokowi has pledged
to increase spending on social issues and improve healthcare and education provision. It would
also be detrimental to Indonesias overall development and an equally difficult proposition to sell
to the electorate.
The next administration will have to approach the fuel subsidy cut with care, as it was increases in
fuel prices that helped fuel the economic volatility that eventually unseated Suharto and the New
Order regime in 1998. When current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyonos administration cut
the fuel subsidy last year, there was also widespread protests. It is a political hot potato, but a
necessity supported by all reputable economists and analysts.
Jokowi has pledged that he will gradually reduce the fuel subsidy over a four to five-year period.
Kalla has also said that it would be an economic priority for the new government once they take
office in October. Having Kalla as his Vice President will benefit Jokowi, as Kalla is an experienced
policy maker and understands the sensitivities involved from when he also served as Vice
President to current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono during his first 5 year term in office.
Indonesias energy supplies are still fuelled by oil, gas and coal, and the current government and
the next administration will face the major policy challenge of increasing energy supply to keep
up with demand energy consumption is expected to rise by almost 30% by 2020. Support for
fossil fuel burning power stations, especially coal, is still strong; the outlook for other energy
sources, such as geothermal and renewables looks less certain.
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Image: basibanget
ASEAN &
the ASEAN Community 2015
ASEAN and the upcoming ASEAN Community 2015 will present an
enormous opportunity but also an enormous challenge for Jokowi and
his administration. It is also of note that the success of ASEAN is
intrinsically linked to Indonesias willingness to lead and participate.
ASEAN is a political and economic organization made up of 10
Southeast Asian countries, but Indonesia is critical to its influence and
relevance, as the biggest country, biggest economy and biggest
population in ASEAN. How far Indonesia is prepared to work with the
group really does set the pace for ASEAN integration and its future.
Jokowi has been generally favorable in his public statements to the
ASEAN Economic Community, stating that Indonesian companies must
compete to gain a bigger regional and international market share. He
said the best way for Indonesia to compete in ASEAN and take
advantage of the opportunity was for the government to support
enterprise and protect local business by further empowerment through
expediting licensing procedures and administrative processes so that
Indonesian businesses would be better placed to compete. However,
Jokowi will be acutely aware of the sensitivities and concerns that
Indonesian businesses (especially Small and Medium Sized Enterprises
which employ the majority of the population) have over allowing foreign
companies greater market access to do business and sell goods. It is
unlikely that he would change track in any fundamental way from the
way the Indonesian government currently engages with ASEAN; some
protectionist measures will remain in place especially in sensitive
national industries, such as banking and finance.
We know as well from the Edelman Trust Barometer 2014 results for
Indonesia that only 1 in 20 Indonesians want their government to focus
on creating free and open markets (thats much lower than the global
average). Opening up markets further still is unlikely to be a particularly
popular policy, although a middle ground maybe found. It is also worth
noting that even if politicians speak in nationalistic tongues at home, the
regional and global reality means further ASEAN integration and
connectivity is set to continue. ASEAN political and business leaders will
be looking to see how Jokowi addresses the issue and the choices he
makes in the months ahead.
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Improving education
Jokowi has promised to implement free universal education up to 12 years old and put an
end to parents worries that their children cannot receive basic education due to financial
constraints. Similar to KIS, the Indonesia Smart Card, i.e. Kartu Indonesia Pintar or KIP, aims
to provide universal education for all citizens, including farmers, fishermen, laborers, and
people with disabilities.
In order to improve Indonesias overall human resource quality, Jokowi also aims to also
launch the Indonesia Smart Card, i.e. Kartu Indonesia Pintar, or KIS. (The only difference
between the KIP and School Operational Assistance, i.e. Bantuan Operasional Sekolah or
BOS is that KIS uses a card system which makes it clear who receives free education.)
Jokowis love of the smart card is based on his success as Governor of Jakarta and his
introduction of similar cards for health and education access, which proved to be highly
effective and popular.
Jokowi has also pledged to provide scholarships for students to continue higher education
who currently cannot afford this due to financial constraints, yet score highly in academic
tests. Health and education are likely to be central areas of focus for the next administration
and are where some of their most ambitious pledges have been made.
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An introduction to our
Corporate & Public Affairs
practice
30+
Corporate
Reputation
& Strategy
B2B
Communications
Community &
Employee
Engagement
Government
Engagement &
Public Affairs
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- Stakeholder mapping
- Policy monitoring
- Risk assessments
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Stephen Lock
CEO Edelman Indonesia
& Head of Public Affairs,
Southeast Asia
Stephen has almost two decades of international experience in public affairs including
risk and stakeholder mapping; engagement; legislative lobbying and government
relations. Having lived in emerging markets for over a decade, before joining Edelman in
South East Asia, he was Managing Director, Eurasia and Global Co-head of Public Affairs
for the worlds other large independent PR firms. He has lived and worked in the UK,
Brussels, Italy, the Caribbean, Russia and Turkey, before moving to Indonesia. He travels
widely on client government and stakeholder management projects across South East
Asia. His sector expertise includes oil and gas; banking; disease awareness and
education; and pharma market access and pricing. In several countries he has led teams
on competition, intellectual property and privacy issues and handled projects around
foreign direct investment.
He has co-drafted legislation and advised on national parliamentary enquiries and EU
investigations. He has responded to political-driven media and consumer crises with
programs integrating government relations, PR, social media and stakeholder outreach.
He has managed and co-authored research ranging from retirement income funding;
carbon emissions trading; the economic impact of Hepatitis C; smoking cessation;
consumer goods pricing and financial regulatory reform. He writes, trains and lectures
regularly. Stephen graduated in Law from Cambridge University and 1995-1997 advised
the UKs Labour party on business relations for the 1997 General Election. He started his
career as an investment banker at Lazards and has professional accountancy and
London Stock Exchange qualifications.
Bambang Chriswanto
Vice Chairman and Head of
Consulting
In his current position, Bambang provides communications and strategic counsel for all
practice groups of Edelman Group of companies in Indonesia across many industry
sectors. He is also the program director and one of the lead trainers in media
skills/spokesperson development programmes, behavior change communications, and
crisis management.
Bambang holds a bachelors degree in English linguistics from IKIP Malang in Indonesia
and later attended graduate studies in communications management from the
University of Indonesia. Bambang has an MBA degree in Strategic Management from
Prasetiya Mulya Business School, one of the leading business schools in Indonesia
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Jacob Drake
Head of Corporate and Public
Affairs
Jake Drake brings to the firm more than 20 years of strategic communications
experience in corporate brand and reputation management, social responsibility and
crisis and issues management In Indonesia Jake has led communications initiatives
involving a wide range of issues critical to the global reputation and continued economic
development of Indonesia and its leading companies. That includes work on social,
environmental, fair trade, and economic development issues in partnership with the
Indonesian Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Forestry, the U.S. consulates, Indonesian
chambers of commerce, and business support associations in Australia, North America
and across the EU, as well as private companies such as NALCO, the U.S.-based leader in
clean water technology, and Singapore-based Carbon Conservation, an environmental
consulting group promoting worldwide investment in REDD and REDD+ programs in
Indonesia.
Jake has worked in a wide range of industries, including pulp and paper, forestry, oil and
gas, energy services, commercial real estate, professional and financial services, health
care, transportation, telecom, consumer and enterprise technology, mobility, and new
media/entertainment.
In Asia he led regional communications strategy, CSR and social media campaigns for
Sinar Mas Forestry and Asia Pulp & Paper, Dell, ExxonMobil, Paul Capital and Bacardi
Brands as well as country-specific initiatives for Merck, Pfizer, Pepsi Co., Unilever, Hilton,
the Womens Tennis Association and Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. Other past
clients include Shell Oil, Starbucks, Sony Pictures, Sony Ericsson WTA Tour, Pioneer
Electronics, RadioShack, Mattel, Sony Ericsson, THQ, Paramount, Fox, Genentech,
Medtronic, British Airways, Del Webb, Pulte Homes, Lucent Technologies and Illinova
Energy Partners.
Aeran is a Singaporean that has been based in Indonesia for the last 12 years.
Holder of an undergraduate degree in Network Computing from Monash University,
Australia, he specializes in Crisis Communications and in the Lobbying of Regulatory
Affairs in the Technology practice, and he is also fluent in brand and social media
engagement. Aeran has been involved in conducting training for C-Suite executives
and Senior Managers on Media Communications, Crisis & Issues Management and
Change Management.
His career began 11 years ago as a Technology and New Media Project Consultant
for Hill and Knowlton in Melbourne where he worked for 3 years, before moving on to
Microsoft Vendor (Raffles Consultancy) where he took on the role of Sales/Public
Affairs Director in 2004.
During his tenure with Microsoft, Aeran helped the company in integrated digital
communication strategies and drove strategic online marketing campaigns to
engage consumers. He also spent a good amount of time training senior government
officials on I.T. Infrastructures, Evolution of Technology and Technology Divide,
Intellectual Property and Data Centers to create awareness amongst legislators on
the importance of the need for governments to be at the forefront of technology.
Aeran has represented Microsoft (Indonesia and APAC) both in the U.S. and in the
Asia Pacific region for their Educational and Innovation programs and the
implementation of them with various ASEAN Educational bodies. Aeran has also
successfully overseen executive training and counseled representatives from Acer
and INTEL Indonesia.
CONTACT
Stephen Lock,
CEO Edelman Indonesia
& Head of Public Affairs, Southeast Asia
Email: Stephen.Lock@edelman.com
Phone: +62 21 721 59000