Sri Lanka: Battle Lines Drawn

| by Manik De Silva
( November 23, 2014, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The battle lines are drawn and
the country now knows that after months of agonizing debate, discussion and, if truth
be told, manipulation, the SLFPs long-serving general secretary, former Health
Minister Maitripala Sirisena, will be the so-called common opposition candidate
against President Mahinda Rajapaksa who is seeking a third term. Insiders say that the
government did not know until Thursday that Sirisena planned to cross the Rubicon.
He is now passed the point of no return and how he will fare on January 8 when the
election will be held remains to be seen. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe drew a lot
of flak for his decision to back General Sarath Fonseka at the 2010 election; but it must
be said in fairness that soon after the war victory, with Rajapaksa riding the crest of a
wave of popularity, there could have been no better candidate to pit against the
incumbent. Fonseka came a cropper, it is true. But nobody can accuse his backers
including Wickremesinghe and the JVP, of plotting his downfall. There were, of
course, some doubts on whether Fonseka would have stepped down as promised
should he have won. But all that remains matters of conjecture. The president did
himself no credit in the subsequent treatment of the war-winning general who proved
to the country that he was a toughie who would not crawl on his belly and seek a
pardon from anybody. He served his time seeking no comforts until he was let out due
to pressure of public opinion.

Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga was a key player in strategizing Sirisenas

defection. It was well known that the then health minister was keen to become prime
minister. Clearly Prime Minister D.M. Jayaratne is in no condition health-wise to do
that job but Rajapaksa, confronted by too many aspirants for the position, chose the
easy way out by not replacing the incumbent. He may or may not rue that decision
given the way events have unfolded. He could well believe that he fended off a
possibility of having his throat cut by his prime minister had that appointment had
been made! Anointing Rajapaksa as the SLFPs presidential candidate in 2005 was not
CBKs preference. She would have preferred to continue the Bandaranaike dynasty
with brother Anura if Mahinda Rajapaksa was not as strong as he was in the SLFP.
Mahinda, like Fonseka, is also a toughie who won first the prime ministry and then the
party ticket for the presidency despite Chandrika. Everything she said at the press
conference where Sirisenas candidacy was announced clearly indicated that nothing
has been forgotten. Though Rajapaksa is widely perceived in the country as nonvindictive, it would be useful for him to reflect on whether he treated CBK and Fonseka
right.
Although extravagant claims are being made on the numbers that will cross from the
government to the opposition, and there are optimists who even boast that the budget
will be defeated, realism tells us that the gap between the two sides is far too wide to
bridge. In addition to the handful of MPs who have already showed their hand, a few
more are likely to cross for sure. But nobody should under-estimate the president.
Defections will not be just one way traffic, we believe. Mahinda Rajapaksa, given the
resources he commands, will surely ensure at least some movement from the
opposition to the government. Changes of allegiance will have nothing to do with the
national interest. Those who defect in whatever direction will calculate what is best for

them. Some, to put it brutally, may be bought over and others may have a gun held at
their heads. The promise of a National List seat in the next Parliament may be
sufficient incentive to somebody unsure of nomination. Whoever wins or loses the next
parliamentary election, both the SLFP (or UPFA) and the UNP will have a clutch of
National List seats to distribute. But doing the dirty there is also not unknown.
Remember Dr. W. Dahanayaka was on the UNP National List under Premadasa but
eventually found himself out of Parliament when the final choices were made. Mr.
Maitripala Senanayake suffered the same fate under CBK!
Many questions abound in the emerging scene. Although the Maitripala Sirisena
defection caught the government on the wrong foot, as did Sarath Fonsekas decision
to run for president in 2010 with UNP and JVP backing, will the UNP be able to deliver
the lions share of its vote bank to Sirisena? Will Sirisena be able to bring a goodly
number of SLFP votes to the ticket? What will the JVP and JHU do? While the JHU
has made clear that they cannot back Rajapaksa, they have not quit the ruling UPFA
coalition. A possible split in the party on this issue is a real possibility. While the LSSP
has not split, a sizable minority of its Central Committee is not going along with Prof.
Tissa Vitaranas line backing the president. Abolishing the executive presidency has
attracted a broad based constituency and even the president who twice promised in
2005 and 2010 to dispense with it (and ended up abolishing the two-term limit!) is
now talking about doing the job via the parliamentary select committee. All those
concerned about ridding the country of that monster must not forget that a two thirds
majority, which is now available, may not be possible in the future. Whatever its
deficiencies, the 17th Amendment which would have ensured at least a modicum of
good governance was unanimously adopted by Parliament. President Rajapaksa found
it convenient to ditch it but a degree of consensus is now emerging that it must be
restored and the 18th amendment repealed.
Mahinda Rajapaksa has the opportunity of taking at least some wind out of the sails of
the common opposition platform with a clear commitment to get cracking on making
the widely desired constitutional changes. He is best aware that the prevailing bad
governance, rampant corruption and family bandysm that is part of the current scene
must be ended. Not doing so will only damage the legacy of being the man who won
the war which has ensured his place in history. Governments refusal to table the
Supreme Court opinion on the third term issue is an obvious indicator that there is
something, perhaps a dissent or two, to hide. If not, why be coy about making public a
matter that belongs to the public? The country would also like a clear statement that
the president, if he wins the January election, will take his oaths immediately
thereafter and not two years hence when his current term is over. There has been far
too much gerrymandering on matters like this for people to keep faith that the right
thing will be done at the end of an election. Let us not have another `private opinion
sought from the Supreme Court on this issue. While on this subject, let us conclude by
saying that we hope Maitripala Sirisena keep Sarath Silva off his platform. Apologies

notwithstanding, he has done too much damage to this country to deserve a place on
any platform.
(the writer is the editor in Chief of the Sunday Island, weekly newspaper based in
Colombo, where this piece was originally appeared.)
Posted by Thavam