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LNG Business Plan 20130220
LNG Business Plan 20130220
BUSINESS PLAN
2013 February
CONTENT
Summary .......................................................................................... 3
LNG terminal project ........................................................................ 9
LNG terminal technology and infrastructure ...................................... 10
LNG terminal and marketing business model ..................................... 20
Business model of the LNG terminal ....................................................................... 20
LNG import and marketing business model ........................................................ 21
Project organization .......................................................................................................... 24
Implementation plan of the LNG terminal ......................................... 25
Project funding .............................................................................. 31
Need of funds for start-up of the LNG terminal business ........................... 31
Financing of the LNG terminal business (from 2015) ................................... 34
LNG import and trade financing activities............................................................ 35
Cost and benefit analysis of the LNG terminal ................................ 36
Ensurance of alternative gas supply to Lithuania ............................... 37
Ensuring competitive pricing ........................................................... 38
Benefits of the LNG terminal ........................................................... 40
Benefits of the LNG terminal for the State .......................................................... 40
Benefits of the LNG terminal to consumers of natural gas ........................ 42
LNG terminal benefits to the company implementing the project ......... 44
LNG supply market review............................................................................................ 45
LNG use for ship fuel (bunkering) the additional activity .................. 48
Possibilities of cooperation with Latvia and Estonia ............................ 49
SWOT analysis .............................................................................. 50
Summary
The National Energy Strategy (further referred to as a Strategy) which was approved by the Seimas of
the Republic of Lithuania on 26 June 2012 Resolution No. XI-2133 and on 18 January 2007 Resolution
No. X-1046, defines the basic strategic provisions and their directions of implementation by 2025,
where the main attention is focused on ensurance of energy security and in particular long-term natural
gas supply. Today Lithuania is dependent on a single external supplier of imported natural gas. To
eliminate the energy isolation in the gas sector and implement 20 October 2010 European Parliament
and Council Regulation (EU) No. 994/2010 on gas supply security measures, Member States of the
European Union were obliged to comply with directive N-1 standard of infrastructure in securing
alternative gas supply sources.
LNG terminal one of the key projects to ensure energy security, which creates the conditions
for the emergence of the natural gas market, and brings economic benefits to the State,
consumers and the company executing the project.
The Law on Liquefied Natural Gas Terminal of the Republic of Lithuania dated 12 June 2012 (No. XI2053) establishes the general principles and requirements for the construction, operation and
exploitation of a liquefied natural gas terminal in the Republic of Lithuania and forms a legal, financial
and organizational framework for the implementation of the project on a liquefied natural gas terminal.
Lithuania currently imports natural gas from the outer sole supplier of natural gas in accordance
with the rules, pricing and terms of this supplier. Without possibility of choice, there is no gas
market. When the LNG terminal project is implemented, the Lithuanian natural gas customers
will get the opportunity not only to purchase natural gas from different suppliers, but also to
choose from new products: short-term gas supply contracts at market prices and new pricing
principles (i. e. without linking gas prices to oil prices).
The purpose of this business plan is to present the importance of LNG terminal project, economic
benefits of natural gas to consumers, the company executing the project, the State and to provide
technical solutions and the principles of terminal business model.
LNG terminal the project ensuring an alternative natural gas supply, which:
will help to resolve historically unfolding the problem of dependence of Lithuania on a single
external supplier of gas from Russia (gas is supplied by one gas pipeline, which passes through
Belarus);
will reduce OAO Gazprom possibilities to use its dominant position and to exercise the gas
pricing policy, the price of gas imported to Lithuania is one of the highest in Europe and
significantly exceeds the gas prices in international markets;
will create an opportunity for gas market participants to take part in the international gas
markets and thus to reduce the average price of imported natural gas;
will provide an opportunity to choose new market products short-term contracts with a pricing
mechanism not linked to oil prices and take advantage of the global gas market opportunities;
3
will provide alternative gas supply routes, by implementing European Union directive N-1
standard of infrastructure, which will be launched on December 2014.
Established LNG terminal infrastructure (FSRU, jetty infratsructure and gas pipeline,
connecting the terminal to the gas grid) will be transferred to State-controlled natural gas
transmission system operator and assigned to the natural gas infrastructure.
25 percent rule
Currently there is no competition in the Lithuanian natural gas market. Gas is bought from one supplier
with fixed terms and pricing. Natural gas supply contracts are concluded exclusively for long-term in
such way binding to the sole external supplier without leaving any options for an alternative. Therefore:
when LNG infrastructure is created, it is also necessary to create regulatory environment that
allows access to the global natural gas market opportunities;
to promote the efficient competitiveness of natural gas supply sources and to ensure LNG
terminals activity (i.e., LNG terminal technological capacity needed to continuously and
effectively meet the country's natural gas demand), imported natural gas quantity through the
LNG terminal must be at least 25 percent of total consumption of natural gas in the Republic of
Lithuania per year;
the 25 percent rule, in order to ensure competitive equality, will be applied equally both to the
gas, supplied through the LNG terminal and through the pipelines;
25 percent rule shall prevent the current monopolist from concluding long-term contracts with
suppliers and delaying of gas market introduction into the country;
in order to protect the interests of gas consumers in Lithuania, the Government of the Republic
of Lithuania will establish through the LNG terminal and pipelines imported and in the internal
market of Republic of Lithuania consumed natural gas price cap;
when suppliers will get used to the new opportunities opened by LNG terminal and gas market
is fully developed, the 25 percent rule will be withdrawn.
Project economics
Supplying 2 bcm LNG (maximum throughput of the infrastructure from 2015) and taking into account
actual market prices of 2012 (National Balancing Point Exchange) Lithuanian consumers would save
up to 0,4 bn. LTL per year;
Influence of all fixed business costs and investments into LNG terminal will amount to 23 percent (5
7 ct per m3) in the final price of natural gas tariff. After 10 years, when FSRU is redeemed, influence of
terminals costs will reduce by 50 percent;
Utilization of the LNG terminal for the needs of other Baltic countries, infrastructure costs would
decrease proportionally for consumers in Lithuania.
Lithuanian
consumption
(bcm)
Russian gas
price 2012
average
(LTL/1000 m3)
Lithuanian
expenditures
on gas
(bn. LTL)
3,0
1329
1,0
1329
2,0
3,99
Alternative
Total
1,33
1130
2,26
3,0
3,59
0,40
Influence of all fixed business costs and investments into LNG terminal will amount to 23 percent (5
7 ct per m3) in the final price of natural gas tariff. After 10 years, when FSRU is redeemed, influence of
terminals costs will reduce by 50 percent;
Utilization of the LNG terminal for the needs of other Baltic countries, infrastructure costs would
decrease proportionally for consumers in Lithuania.
Project investments
Demand of LNG terminal project investments is estimated to be LTL 613 million. These investments
will be made by SC Klaipdos Nafta and Klaipda State Seaport Authority using their own and/or
borrowed funds.
Investments of Klaipda State Seaport Authority will amount to LTL 160 million, and will be used for
port dredging works and construction of jetty infrastructure.
Klaipdos Nafta investments*, LTL million
2012
1. Project management and infrastructure testing (incl. cost
30
of LNG for testing purposes)
2. LNG terminal gas pipeline and gas metering station -
2013
2014
Total
78
116
224
53
88
141
6
29
59
88
160
263
453
Project financing
AB Klaipdos nafta (KN)
Potential
resources
Collateral
$US 50 M
Accounts
receivable from gas
tariff (from 2015)
commercial bank
guarantee
250m LTL
450m LTL
Investments in:
Project
management
Loan from an
institutional
(NIB, EIB, EBRD)
or commercial
bank
(for 20-25 years)
Gas pipelines
200m LTL
Jetty facilities
compensation of
investments via
gas tariff
(FY2013-2014)
Approved.
LNG Terminal
tangible assets
Demand for
financing and
guarantees
Potential
resources
guarantee from a
commercial bank
Collateral
KN guarantee/ oil
terminal assets
and cash flows
LNG Terminal
trade accounts
receivable and
inventories
Guarantees from
key buyers
investment in
Working Capital
Guarantees from
export credit
agencies
100m LTL
KN cash
investment
Republic of Lithuania, asking it to address the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania
for including a limit of State guarantee intended for financing loans for investments into the
LNG terminal infrastructure (LTL 200 million), into the draft Law of the Republic of Lithuania
on Approval of the Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets for 2013.
The requested limit was included into State Budget of 2013.
Environmental Impact Assessment
Regional Environmental Protection Department of Klaipda by the Ministry of Environment of the
Republic of Lithuania on 22 October 2012 has granted development consent on construction and
activities of Liquefied Natural Gas Import Terminal and Related Objects of Infrastructure in the
southern part of Klaipda State Seaport nearby Pigs back Island. The aforementioned consent finalised
the procedure of environmental impact assessment on LNG terminal project.
LNG terminal project implementation plan
LNG Terminal
launch
2011
Q1
FSRU
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
FSRU lease
agreement
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015
Q4
Q1
Jetty
Pre-project study
Pre-project study
Gas pipelines
Jetty EPC
tender
Pipeline EPC
tender
Process items
Project financing
State
guarantee
Arrangement of LNG supply
Gas trading
Arrangement of NG
sales
Legal environment
assurance
Law on LNG
Terminal
Finished
Testing and
commissioning works
Rules on gas
supply
diversification
In progress
Performed by third
parties
FSRU
Jetty
Gas metering
station
Gas pipelines
10
Baltic
sea
Jetty and
FSRU
Pigs Back
island
Gas pipeline
11
Converting old small-capacity ships, raises the problem of installation of regasification facility
on board. Due to space constraints evaporators should be installed on the ground that would
require additional investments and land plot.
Older ship design useful life is 30 years, when the new designs are 40 years.
Old ships are subject to greater LNG losses due to evaporation, which makes up 0.2 percent per
day, while the new ships LNG loss is from 0.1 to 0.15 percent per day.
Ships external dimensions differ not as much compared to the storage capacity:
Table No. 1. Characteristic data of LNG ships
Dimensions \ ships
75.000
volume
Name of a ship
Cheikh El Mokrani
Length of a ship, m
220
Width of a ship, m
23
Draught of a ship, m
9,8
Loss of gas, m3
150
138.000
170.000
Exelerate (2005)
277
43,5
11,5
215
Hoegh LNG
290
46
11,6
250
The old ships due the old technology (used steam turbines) are less effective, i.e., consume
more fuel and carry less cargo. In addition, the crew composition working on board is the same;
i.e., variable costs are proportionaly higher than that of new ships.
Increased volume makes FSRU more flexible for cargo acceptance, regasification, and LNG
trade.
Considering that most of currently floating LNG carriers are of 140 000 m3 volume, therefore it
is likely that carriers of similar size will be coming to Klaipda. Acquiring FSRU of lower
volume than the entering gas carrier, will raise a problem of gas carrier demurrage. Berthed at
LNG ship-storage, a gas carrier will have to wait until FSRU containers will be able to take the
rest of the cargo. It may take several days and can be expensive, given that the cost of
chartering the ship is 115 000 US dollars per day or more.
Having larger FSRU may reduce transportation costs, because if FSRU has smaller tanks than a
LNG carrier, additional lease costs will be incurred as LNG carrier would not be able to unload
all quantity of LNG.
13
The supplier of FSRU was selected by public procurement, in which 3 major participants have
participated, always competing in this type of projects, they are: Norwegian Hoegh LNG, Golar LNG,
and the American Exelerate. Hoegh LNG was selected due to attractive price and technical
characteristics of FSRU.
Table No. 2. The main parameters of FSRU
Regasification
capacity
Security
The new FSRU has installed the most modern security system that meets the
strictest safety requirements (SIGTTO).
It was decided to lease liquefied natural gas storage with a regasification facility rather than buy
directly from the shipyard for the following reasons:
Table No. 3. Comparison of FSRU purchase and lease
Criteria
Purchase
Funds
Business risk
Ship design
Ship management
Lease
15
Time
17
LNG terminal will ensure that during the coldest winter the first necessity needs of consumers will be
met even in the disruption of supply from Russia.
Constraints of natural gas infrastructure
Lithuanian natural gas transmission infrastructure is adapted to supply gas in the east-west direction
(through Belarus system of gas-mains), so without increasing the current capacity of the pipelines, the
maximum capacity to supply gas from the LNG terminal will reach around 2 bcm per year, because the
system of gas-main is not sufficiently developed. Upgrading pipeline branch Klaipda-Kurnai in the
north, it would be possible to use the maximum capacity of the LNG terminal (up to 4 bcm per year).
Source: SAIC
Taking into account the above reviewed criteria, during the medium term 2 bcm capacity of the LNG
terminal per annum will ensure natural gas supply of the first necessity.
19
20
For effective performance management and transparency of processes, activities are intended to be
separated. The above diagram illustrates the LNG terminal and the volume of trading activities and
relationships in between them.
LNG terminal operating costs are to be included in the gas transmission tariff. According to 2011
consumption volumes divided by the terminal operating costs would result in around 5 ct/m3 additional
cost for gas consumers. After 10 years, the terminal costs would fall 50 percent due to the repaid
financial obligations associated with financing of the project.
Figure No. 7b. Import and trade enterprise business model of the LNG terminal
25 percent rule shall prevent the current monopolist from concluding long-term contracts with
suppliers and delaying of gas market introduction into the country;
in order to protect the interests of gas consumers in Lithuania, the Government of the Republic
of Lithuania established a price cap of through the LNG terminal and pipelines imported and in
the internal market of Republic of Lithuania consumed natural gas;
when suppliers will get used to the new opportunities opened by LNG terminal and gas market
is fully developed, the 25 percent rule will be withdrawn.
Currently Gazprom supplies all Lithuanian consumers with natural gas and in many cases has a longterm gas supply contracts. The largest gas user SC Achema has entered into a direct long-term contract
with OAO Gazprom. In order to maintain influence in the Lithuanian market, OAO Gazprom in the
short term can provide attractive offers to the major customers, and thereby prevent the LNG terminal
from entering the market.
Temporary mandatory 25 percent natural gas supply regulation through the LNG terminal (accordingly
25 percent binding supply mechanism would be also for the gas supplied through pipelines) would be
useful to prevent OAO Gazprom from concluding long-term contracts with suppliers, thus, eliminating
any opportunity of LNG introduction to the Lithuanian natural gas market. This would allow
consumers to have access to the LNG markets, choosing their own long-term or short-term contracts,
when it is beneficial. So, over time, when the Lithuanian consumers gain the experience to work with
LNG market opportunities and after the intensification of gas market relations, 25 percent temporary
rule will be withdrawn.
So, in order to ensure real alternative to natural gas supply, the Government of the Republic of
Lithuania on 29 February 2012 adopted a resolution no. 219 which approved minimal import quota
through LNG terminal of 25 percent from volume of annual domestic natural gas consumption for
natural gas suppliers in Lithuania.
On 12 June 2012 the Parliament of Lithuania adopted LNG Law. It states the general principles and
requirements for construction of LNG terminal in the territory of the Republic of Lithuania. Its
activities and operation are set forth at the highest legal level, as well as legal, financial and
organizational conditions for implementation of LNG terminal project have been created..
Business regulation
As well as infrastructure activities, LNG import and trading activities would be regulated by laws.
Government or, on behalf of it, the National Price and Energy Control Commission (NPECC) would
determine a price cap. It would apply to through the LNG terminal imported and in the Lithuanian
domestic market consumed natural gas amount which must represent at least 25 percent of the total
consumption in the Republic of Lithuania per year. The controlling authority must also approve terms
and conditions for calculation and estimation of of the natural gas price cap.
When determining through the LNG terminal imported natural gas price cap, The Government of the
Republic of Lithuania will evaluate the optimal variant for the Republic of Lithuania, which would
result in maximum benefit to the State and natural gas consumers.
23
Project organization
The Government of the Republic of Lithuania on 21 July 2010 by Resolution No. 1097 approved that
Klaipdos Nafta can begin development of the project of liquefied natural gas terminal. Klaipdos nafta
was assigned due to the companys financial capacity to complete the preparatory works of the project
and the possibility of using the experience gained in managing the oil terminal in Klaipda.
Klaipdos Nafta is responsible for both infrastructure development for LNG as well as import and trade
business establishment.
It is planned to transfer LNG terminal activities with the assets, rights and obligations to the Statecontrolled gas transmission system operator. Klaipdos nafta could further develop LNG natural gas
import and trading activities.
Figure No. 8. Project development scheme
Besides implementation of the LNG terminal project the Company was entrusted with total project
coordination including work coordination delegated to other bodies, which also includes KSSA.
24
May-September
2012
May 2012
12 June 2012
JuneAugust 2012
3 July 2012
5 July 2012
14 August 2012
24 August 2012
12 September 2012
September 2012
October 2012
12 October 2012
22 October 2012
October 2012
November 2012
9 November 2012
9 November 2012
23 November 2012
to the Baltic region was prepared. It indicated that Lithuania selected the
best technological solution which corresponds to regional LNG terminal
parameters with the lowest costs of the terminal construction and operation,
in comparison to potential terminals of Latvia, Estonia and Finland.
December 2012
December 2012
Process of detailed planning regarding land property for GMS was started.
December 2012
17 December 2012
19 December 2012
Comfort letter regarding LNG terminal project was signed by the Minister
of Energy.
27
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
FSRU lease
agreement
FSRU
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015
Q4
Q1
Jetty
Pre-project study
Gas pipelines
Jetty EPC
tender
Pipeline EPC
tender
Process items
Project financing
State
guarantee
Arrangement of LNG supply
Gas trading
Arrangement of NG
sales
Legal environment
assurance
Law on LNG
Terminal
Finished
Testing and
commissioning works
Rules on gas
supply
diversification
In progress
26 June 2012
Performed by third
parties
Date
12 June 2012
16 October
2012
22 October
2012
7 November
2012
6 November
2012
Legal Act
29
30
Project funding
Need of funds for start-up of the LNG terminal business
During the project implementation, the largest investments are as follows:
Lease (acquisition) of the floating LNG storage with a regasification facility;
Harbor dredging, jetty construction and preparation of jetty facilities;
Construction of the pipeline linking the terminal with the gas-main;
Preparatory design, obtaining permits, project management and
other
works;
Total investment demand before the start-up of the LNG terminal is about LTL 613 million..
FSRUwith a regasification facility is the largest investment of the project. It will be leased, eliminating
the need for additional funds from financial institutions or the State budget. According to the
agreement, the lessor of FSRU will take on infrastructure operations risks and provide supervision
services. This is especially important for Lithuania, which does not have that type of equipment
maintenance experience.
.
31
Until the start-up of the LNG terminal at the end of 2014, Klaipdos Nafta will perform preparatory
works: project organization and obtaining the necessary permits, LNG terminal connection with the
gas-main, construction of jetty facilities and start-up works (total LTL 453 million). Start-up works
include testing of LNG terminal infrastructure which will require first supply of LNG amounting to
LTL 120 million. Most likely part of costs will be recovered on sale of used LNG, however for
purposes of simplification, it is assumed no costs will be recovered.
Table No. 4. Klaipdos nafta investments for the LNG terminal project
Klaipdos Nafta investments*, LTL million
1. Project management and infrastructure testing (incl. cost
of LNG for testing purposes)
2. LNG terminal gas pipeline and gas metering station
design and construction
3. LNG terminal jetty suprastructure design and construction
Total:
2012
2013
2014
Total
30
78
116
224
53
88
141
29
59
88
30
160
263
453
Jetty infrastructure construction and harbor dredging works are entrusted1 to Klaipda State Seaport
Authority, which is required to adapt existing and build new infrastructure objects in Klaipda harbor
(total funds needed LTL 160 million). KSSA will finance their investments from own and borrowed
funds.
32
According to 2012-03-02 agreement between Klaipdos Nafta and Hoegh LNG on acquisition of LNG FSRU
33
Potential
resources
Collateral
$US 50 M
Accounts
receivable from gas
tariff (from 2015)
commercial bank
guarantee
250m LTL
450m LTL
Investments in:
Project
management
Loan from an
institutional
(NIB, EIB, EBRD)
or commercial
bank
(for 20-25 years)
Gas pipelines
200m LTL
Jetty facilities
compensation of
investments via
gas tariff
LNG Terminal
tangible assets
Demand for
financing and
guarantees
Potential
resources
guarantee from a
commercial bank
Collateral
KN guarantee/ oil
terminal assets
and cash flows
LNG Terminal
trade accounts
receivable and
inventories
Guarantees from
key buyers
investment in
Working Capital
(FY2013-2014)
Approved.
Guarantees from
export credit
agencies
100m LTL
KN cash
investment
34
Redeemed
FSRU
Completely
acquired FSRU
Lease of FSRU
Lease of servicing
35
36
It is forecasted that to meet the demand of the first necessity in 2020 will require 0.91.5 bcm of gas.
Demand of the first necessity involves supply of gas to domestic consumers, heat production, public
institutions, and companies, for which loss of supply of gas would mean the suspension of activities.
The largest gas supplier in Lithuania is SC Lietuvos dujos which on 16 December 1999 entered into an
agreement with OAO Gazprom valid until 31 December 2015 to supply natural gas to the Republic of
Lithuania. SC Lietuvos dujos sells natural gas to both domestic and non-household customers, and
occupies about 70 percent of retail gas market. The second largest supplier is JSC Dujotekana, which
controls the remaining 30 percent of gas supply market. It has signed a long-term gas supply contract
with OAO Gazprom until the end of 2012.
37
Theoretically, all the Baltic countries are subject to the same gas price formula, but Latvia and Estonia,
having a stronger negotiating position with OAO Gazprom (Latvia concerning Inukalns Underground
Gas Storage, Estonia concerning the availability to use local fuel shale), have better natural gas
prices. Meanwhile Lithuania, in the absence of real alternatives, pays more than its neighbors.
When implementing LNG terminal project, the following objectives will be achieved:
Provided access to the international gas markets the opportunity to purchase natural gas
for the best gas prices and to develop the gas exchange in Lithuania and the Baltic region;
Diversification of supply consumers would have the opportunity to purchase natural gas
from several alternative sources. The lack of alternative supply sources and natural gas price
linking to oil or oil products prices results in higher prices than gas prices linked to gas indexes.
A map of of gas prices in Europe is provided below for comparison.
38
Source: DG Ener
39
Russian gas
price 2012
average
(LTL/1000 m3)
Lithuanian
expenditures
on gas
(bn. LTL)
3,0
1329
3,99
2,25
1329
2,99
Alternative
By OAO Gazprom imported gas
Imported LNG gas
0,75
Total
3,0
1130
0,85
3,84
0,15
40
A. Terminal operates at a maximum mode within the existing gas network capacity (~2 bcm):
1. 2/3 of natural gas is imported through the LNG terminal at NBP prices;
2. 1/3 of natural gas is imported from Russia under the existing supply contract prices.
Economic benefits 400 mln. LTL/year.
Figure No. 18. Economic benefits of LNG terminal, annual capacity about 2 bcm/year
Lithuanian
consumption
(bcm)
Russian gas
price 2012
average
(LTL/1000 m3)
Lithuanian
expenditures
on gas
(bn. LTL)
3,0
1329
1,0
1329
2,0
3,99
Alternative
Total
1,33
1130
3,0
2,26
3,59
0,40
Figure No. 19. Potential economic benefits of the LNG terminal due to decreased prices for gas
Variable costs of LNG terminal mainly consist of LNG fuel used to produce liquefied natural gas
transforming them into the gaseous form (in the reregasification process).
In addition, about 1020 percent (60120 mln. LTL) of LNG project will be carried out by the
Lithuanian contractors and project-related service providers, which will boost the growth of the
Lithuanian economy.
41
42
Picture No. 20. Prices of import and gas markets indexes (2010-2012 LTL/1000 m3)
Further growth in crude oil and oil product prices, according to the pricing principles applied by OAO
Gazprom, in natural gas valuation (i.e. linking with the prices of oil products) is not cost-effective
alternative to Lithuania.
Henry Hub is the index of natural gas trading in the USA. Discovery of shale gas resources and
technology of their extraction reduced natural gas prices in the USA, as shown in the picture above.
USA is implementing LNG terminal construction projects which will allow it to export liquefied
natural gas to Europe and other continents.
If it would be possibile to buy gas from Great Britain (NBP index), Netherlands (TTF) or USA (Henry
Hub) markets, or buy long-term contracts, where natural gas price is linked to the stock exchange
prices, natural gas prices in Lithuania could fall by 20 percent or more.
Figure No. 21. Tentative price of gas import
43
On 26 June 2012 the Parliament of the Republic of Lithuania passed resolution on Adoption of
the National Energy Independence Strategy which sets main Lithuanian energy sector aims and
their implementation measures until 2020 as well as development guidelines until 2030 and
2050. LNG terminal project was established as the strategic priority project intended to ensure
stability and diversification of natural gas supply and to reduce natural gas prices as well as
create natural gas market.
LNG terminal and LNG supply activity will be regulated by the State, so the Company will be provided
with a stable income.
Source: EconGas
Because of its advantages (fast, flexible, independent from the surrounding countries), LNG import and
export infrastructure is being developed rapidly. Currently, around the world, more than 46 export and
45 import terminal projects are being carried out. As a result, the LNG market continues to grow
rapidly.
Meanwhile, ground pipeline projects while in development, are mostly in internal markets. Crossborder gas pipeline projects are often subject to political risks and are usualy delayed (i.e. Nabucco,
South Stream).
45
Supply-demand balance
Currently LNG demand exceeds supply. This was mostly influenced by the increased flows to Asia,
caused by several factors: the natural gas consumption growth in the Indian and Chinese markets (these
markets are limited in the gas pipeline infrastructure), Japans fuel balance changes after the incident in
Fukushima (closed nuclear power plants, nuclear energy was replaced by natural gas). Currently,
Japans consumption consists of over 40 percent of all Asia LNG demand.
However, the situation will return to normal after new gas liquefaction terminals are built:
It is planned that in 2015 Australian export capacity will exceed 80 bcm. Australia will be able
to meet growing Asian demand and LNG supply trends will be redistributed positively to the
European region.
Due to effective shale gas extraction technology USA is planning to replace existing import
terminals with export. USA is planning that terminal capacity will exceed 100 bcm. This change
will have a direct impact on trade in the Atlantic basin and is likely to reduce LNG prices.
Currently, USA prices (Henry Hub) are the lowest LNG prices in the world.
In the 510 year term, new gas liquefaction terminals are planned in Africa, Canada, USA and
Russia. After the launch of all planned gas liquefaction terminals, LNG supply will jump to 535
bcm/year (from the current 251 (88 percent).
Therefore, long-term projections indicate that supply will exceed demand and may reduce the prices of
LNG.
Figure No. 23. Projection of natural gas distributrion for 20122020 years
Source: Poten&Partners
46
LNG pricing
LNG global market pricing system is not uniform. LNG prices reflect the countrys consumer or
regional market situation. In the Atlantic, Caribbean and European markets LNG price is usually
associated with the Brent oil price or partly with oil products (gasoline, fuel oil) prices. In recent years,
more often contracts of natural gas supply are concluded applying price formula linked to the gas
indexes.
Figure 24. Differences in the LNG prices according to the region
The gas indexes are formed in the gas exchange centers (hub). The main gas exchange centers, which
could be used to link gas supply price for Lithuania:
NBP (National Balancing Point called) Great Britain
TTF (Title Transfer Facility) Netherlands
HH (Henry Hub USA)
An important factor is transportation costs in the LNG supply price formula. Depending on the country
or transshipment terminal, from which LNG is supplied, transportation costs can vary up to two times.
47
149
170
192
196
227
227
217
227
291
330
North
Ameriva
51
56
26
29
59
59
50
59
122
158
Nigeria
155
161
111
111
141
141
131
140
166
192
The Fsr
East
224
245
268
272
302
302
293
302
368
378
Trinidad
158
163
112
110
131
131
123
130
69
78
North Eats
Asia
310
331
354
359
392
392
380
391
456
537
LTL/1000 m3
North
Australia
Europe
239
133
259
139
285
89
289
85
321
54
321
54
308
69
321
54
383
127
487
173
48
49
SWOT analysis
Table No. 7. SWOT analysis
Strengths
The selected flexible technical solution min/max
regasification from 1.5 to 11 mln. m3/day,
respectively, from 0.6 to 4 bcm/year.
Purchased FSRU is one of the most economical of
this type of facility: 170 thousand m3 tanks, the latest
LNG vapor collection equipment (to 0.12 percent,
older ship losses up to 0.2 percent), and combined
open-loop evaporation system that enables to save
fuel, installed boiler economizers additionally recover
heat energy from exhaust gases.
Technology (FSRU) is mobile and can change
location, if necessary.
Technology (FSRU) allows use of a FSRU as a tanker.
Sufficient expertise and financial resources to
implement LNG project.
LNG terminal increases the reliability of gas supply
system due to an additional source of supply.
In 2014 with future pipeline capacity it will ensure the
needs of gas consumers even after the termination of
gas supply from Russia.
Weaknesses
Gas pipeline constraints: existing gas pipe
network 1 mln. m3/day, 0.5 bcm/year. After
construction of gas-main Jurbarkas - Klaipda
6 mln. m3/day, 2 bcm/year, insufficient
amounts for 100 percent coverage of the
Lithuanian needs.
Technical and commercial restrictions: strict
LNG supply conditions, also technological
regasification minimum of 1.5 mln. m3/day
does not allow rapid response to changes in
demand.
There are restrictions on trade of LNG minimum long-term LNG supply contract is
0.6 bcm/year, purchasing a lower amount
would increase price per m3.
Limited opportunities for gas storage in the
LNG terrminal due to the constant
evaporation. During a year of absence of
operations LNG evaporation would reach
100,000 m3 LNG amounting to 6070 mln.
LTL.
Lithuania does not have gas balancing
possibilities, a solution would be to develop
an underground natural gas storage facility.
Opportunities
In the instance of oversupply in the world markets
there are opportunities to benefit from low-cost shortterm gas contracts.
The availability of gas contracts with prices not linked
to oil indexes.
Availability to create a natural gas exchange.
Opportunities to supply LNG to LV and EE markets.
Global LNG and NG market trends, emerging from a
separate gas oil market (NBP, TTF, Henry Hub) create
opportunities for LNG market prices to have imapct on
lower NG price compared to the NG price supplied by
OAO Gazprom in Lithuania.
Utilize the regional NG storage in Iniukalns (LV) and
solving of supply and demand schedules discrepancies
due to seasonality and using the opportunity to obtain
more LNG for better prices in summer, i.e., balancing
the supply of NG.
Opportunity of development of the regional LT-LVEE LNG terminal in the ice-free port of Klaipda.
Development of the LNG bunkering/gas-station
network, as LNG is attributed to clean fuels.
Threats
In order to establish a long-term supply
contract it is required to plan and coordinate
contracts for the LNG tankers ~ 2 years before
delivery commences.
The gas transfer system is currently controlled
by market monopolist, the risk of technical
restrictions for trading exists.
OAO Gazprom has nearly unlimited financial
and technological possibilities to offer better
supply conditions and prices for competition
with the LNG terminal.
OAO Gazprom is a single external supplier
dominant in NG markets in Lithuania, Latvia
and Estonia.
Weak gas pipeline system in Latvia.
It is necessary to modernize Inukalns
underground gas storage facility for it to be
able in spring to supply gas to Lithuania.
50