Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Current Affairs Topic
Current Affairs Topic
Background
Peace negotiations
Peace negotiations with the Taliban were announced by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif after
his election, although previous attempts to engage the Taliban in dialogue had failed. The first
session of talks, between committees appointed by the Government of Pakistan and the Taliban,
was held on 26 March 2014 at Khyber Pakhtunkhwa House in Islamabad.The Taliban did not name
representatives from their ranks, instead nominating pro-Taliban religious figures to present their
views.The movement called for the implementation of Sharia in Pakistan; the Pakistani government
insisting that talks be held within the framework of the Constitution of Pakistan. A month-long
ceasefire was reached between the government and the Taliban on 1 March 2014.
In addition to the meetings at Khyber Pakhtunkhwa House, negotiations involved helicopter travel by
government representatives to the area near the Afghan border. The government had indicated that
stronger military action would be implemented if the talks failed.
Failure
Negotiations collapsed after the execution of 23 Pakistani Frontier Corps soldiers by the Taliban on
17 February 2014.The soldiers had been held by the insurgents since 2010, and on 17 April 2014
the TTP formally ended the ceasefire.[ More than 90 militants have been killed by Taliban infighting
since March 2014. The strife, triggered by differences between the Mehsud group (led by Sheheryar
Mehsud) and another TTP faction (led by Khan Said Sajna), impeded the peace talks.The
negotiations were irreversibly damaged by a terrorist attack on Karachi Airport for which the Taliban
claimed responsibility and which killed 28 people (including security personnel).A Pakistani security
official said, "The army is ready for an operation. It now all depends on the government to make a
decision.
hideouts, killing as many as 140 militants (most Uzbek, including persons linked to the airport attack
and airport attack commander and mastermind Abu Abdur Rehman Almani). The intensified aerial
strikes in the wake of the attack were an extension of operations against militants conducted over
the last few months.
Preparations
The Pakistani military had prepared for the operation long before, and the government prepared for
a three-front operation:[48] isolating targeted militant groups, obtaining support from the political
parties and saving civilians from the backlash of the operation.[48]
Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that the nation stood by its army: "The decision was
taken after the strategy of dialogue failed. The operation will continue until it reaches its logical
conclusion. Any group that challenges Pakistan's constitution, attacks civilians, soldiers, and
government installations and uses Pakistani territory to plan terrorist attacks will be targeted". Asif
added that internally displaced persons would be assisted by the federal and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa governments: "We will try to ensure that the displaced do not have to stay away from
their homes for too long."
Army troops encircled militant bases in the towns of Mirali and Miramshah. Pakistani officials said
that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) were requested to seal the border on their side so
that militants do not escape.[50] The operation involved the Pakistan Air
Force, artillery, tanks and ground troops. According to a military statement, "On the directions of the
government, armed forces of Pakistan have launched a comprehensive operation against foreign
and local terrorists who are hiding in sanctuaries in North Waziristan."An official with the military said
that between 14,000 and 20,000 soldiers were normally stationed in North Waziristan before the
operation, and he expected the offensive to require no more than a total of 30,000 troops.
Over 950,000 people have been displaced since the start of the military
offensive against militants in North Waziristan, according to the FATA Disaster
Management Authority (FDMA). The fighting first escalated in May, but after this
months deadly attack on Karachi airport claimed by an Uzbek militant group
and the Pakistani Taliban the army officially launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
As the military pounds Taliban hideouts in North Waziristan, internally displaced
people (IDPs) are fleeing to safer areas, i.e. the towns of Bannu, Peshawar and
Kohat. Roughly 4,000 families are reported to have crossed into Afghanistan
and many more are being put up in refugee camps. The influx is likely to
accelerate. These people collateral damage in a war they are trapped in
through no fault of their own are poor and earn a living through farming,
family trades and petty jobs. When war hits, they pack up their belongings
whatever they can fit into a bed sheet and carry on their backs and leave
home to go off into a rather uncertain future.IDP situations are dramatically
challenging for any country; to have the resources to indefinitely sustain an
exodus, and to create peace in the areas they left, so they can migrate back, is
Drought in the desert remote areas of Pakistan is natural but the death of people is not. It is due to
lack of facilities and irresponsibility of people who are appointed to selected posts that have engulfed
the lives of 121 innocent people within the few months. The number can be even more than this as
these people are trying to hide the actual figures as the irresponsibility of the elected leaders has
made the situation worst in Thar. They are now giving lame excuses and statements in order to
escape responsibility from their criminal acts. According to a report to the media by the chief
minister who is a feudal lord of Sindh Province the ratio of higher deaths is common and it is due to
disease, it is not only because of drought or malnutrition. However, it we examine the situation many
questions will arise, if the deaths are not because of malnutrition then what to the weak bodies of
children reflect? If, indeed, the deaths are due to disease then why there were not enough facilities
available for the victims to save their lives. On the other side the Commissioner of Mirpurkhas Sindh
reported that they had not distributed 60,000 bags of wheat among the Thari people who are living
in remote areas because of lack of money for transport.
What a shameful statement to make! In a country where millions of rupees are spent on mega
festivals arranged by the ruling party and the leaders go on official tours to other countries they
openly admit that they have no money to transport vitally needed food rations.
When the elections were approaching these leaders visited the poor people, begged for the votes and
made promises for their welfare but when they are elected they have nothing to do with the people,
their problems or their welfare.
Thar is famous because of its beauty in the rainy season and reserves of coal. However, the people
living off the lack basic life facilities. They have broken roads, few reserves of clean water, shortage of
food, schools and the hospitals in poor conditions, lacking in doctors, staff, nurses, medicines, beds,
and machinery and so on.
Around 175,000 families have migrated from the remote areas of Thar to other areas of Sindh for
their survival. But according to our leaders that migration to other areas of Sindh is also common. If,
indeed, everything is 'common' for our leaders then why are they needed at their jobs?
The drought did not just happen suddenly. These people have been facing such difficulties for
months. According to the Thari people they are migrating from their parental homes to barrages in
order to save the lives of their poor families. They mostly depend on the live stock which is already
too weak and unable to move with them to other places and cover the distance. The weak bodies of
their wives are unable to feed their children because of which their children are dying due to
different diseases.
Since independence these people have been living in difficulty. Regardless of the climate changes the
government has not taken enough measures to save their lives. It is only now when the situation has
become so severe that the government announced aid for them.
It is our humble request to our political leaders to please create a solid strategy to save the lives of
these poor people. Attention must be paid to saving their livelihoods on which their lives depend.
These policies should be on a long term basis, not for temporary relief. Instead of spending huge
budgets on cultural events and unnecessary official tours invest money on the basic needs of these
people in order to save their lives and solve their problems. If proper steps are not taken then the
time is not far off when other feudal lords or leaders will celebrate their festivals on the ruins of thar
and too late they will remember the rich culture of Thari people.
International donors have shown extreme resentment with concerns over the polio
campaign in Pakistan. In a meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in New York,
World Health Organization representatives highlighted this point towards overcoming the
situation that has been crippled due to the recent terror attacks on polio health workers
across the country. They unanimously iterated on the appointment of important people all
over the areas where polio vaccination is inevitable. According to the source, the
important person is deemed an official, who takes the international agencys matters and
supervises the campaign throughout the country. Pakistani Government has yet to appoint
an important individual even at the federal level, which has been delayed for years.
International agencies have shown concerns that terror attacks seemed successful in
undermining polio eradication in the country. In addition, agencies around the world are
now also facing difficulties towards running their polio cells.
The World Health Organizations representatives have asked PM Nawaz Sharif that polio
eradication efforts should be made with complete provincial unity and understanding.
Regional Director Dr. Ala Alawan, expressed reservations over the provincial efforts, has
asked to make polio eradication a priority agenda to all stakeholders in the country. PM
Nawaz Sharif stressed on the need of civil-military coordination mechanism to score out
polio. Minister of State for National Health Services, Saira Afzal Tarar briefed the
meeting about Pakistani strategy so far. She satisfied all international stakeholders by
presenting a fact sheet in which she told that only 28 polio cases have been reported for
the current year as compared to 1994 when there were 2600 cases.
Britain supports continuation of democracy in Pakistan and has pressed upon the fact that
the ongoing political crisis should be resolved democratically. British Secretary of State for
Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Phillipe Hammond further urged political parties to
resolve their political differences using democratic institutions. That, in these circumstances,
is the best possible solution and as I see it, the only one that can actually achieve a
concrete outcome.
The European Union too has expressed deep concern over the current political situation in
the context of GSP Plus Status, saying, We are deeply concerned by the current situation
in Pakistan and are monitoring events closely. We reiterate our conviction that the current
impasse should be resolved peacefully through dialogue within the framework of the
constitution and we urge all parties to act responsibly and to refrain from using violence.
Further, the European Unions statement hinted that Pakistan has failed to reap the benefits
of Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) Plus Status yet, whereas the prevailing
political crisis may lead the country to wash its hands of the advantages in case of any
political setback. It is obvious that Pakistan will lose one of its biggest achievements of the
decade due to the non seriousness of political parties.
Britain supports continuation of democracy in Pakistan and has pressed upon the fact
that the ongoing political crisis should be resolved democratically
Through research, it has been observed that the monthly figures of August 2014 make for
another sorry reading given Eid holidays as well as political instability gripping the country.
Also, prices of cotton have continued their nosedive, in tandem with international prices,
along with textiles. This serves as a great blow to the agrarian economy of the country.
According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), exports fell to $3.84
billion in July-August 2014 against four billion dollars last year a decline of 5.8 per cent.
This statistic should be a source of serious concern to those that are being held responsible
for a decline in productivity and exports, namely the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the
Pakistan Awami Tehreek, whose sit-ins in Islamabad compromised the exporters meetings
with foreign clients for new contracts as well as transport of goods to upcountry areas.
Other manufacturers declined from $3.9 billion to $3.58 billion (nine per cent decline) with
gems and jewellery declining by 72 per cent and cement by 11.5 per cent.
It must be noted here that textile exporters in particular have expressed serious concerns
lately. The dharnas compromised their capacity to meet with clients, who have begun to
look at competing countries to fill their orders. Once a client is lost it is extremely difficult to
get him back. In this context, there is an urgent need to reach an agreement and end the
PTI dharna as soon as possible also. It is being felt by most people that the sit-in has
stretched too far and that life is being compromised. Most people are against the
unconstitutional tactics of protest. This displays how a small number of people are hijacking
not only the capital, but the economy as well.
Through research, it has been observed that the monthly figures of August 2014 make
for another sorry reading given Eid holidays as well as political instability gripping the
country
transported to China through the Baluchistan province in Pakistan. Such a link would vastly cut
the 12,000-kilometres route that Mideast oil supplies must now take to reach Chinese ports.
The government endeavors regarding Economic corridor should not be taken as Chauvinism.
This is not the matter of any political party. It is the case of Pakistans economic prosperity,
which would get a double- triple boost if the Economic Corridor project is implemented in its true
spirit. It is worth mentioning that, this year Federal government had announced six development
schemes costing Rs130 billion under the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, marking the
beginning of a process that will transform the country into a transit hub for the second largest
economy of the world. The reason behind this vital importance is that 60 per cent of oil is being
imported from gulf countries that reaches China after covering the distance of 16,000 KMs, and
after the completion of Gawadar port project, the distance will reduce to 2500 KMs only which
is, from all aspects, more safe and feasible.
Analysts proclaim that, the proposal, when implemented, will re-open the economic artery
blocked for years, realise the interconnection in transport, trade, investment and finance and
build a new Euro-Asian economic roadmap benefitting countries along the Silk Road and even
more. There is no dearth of energy and recourses in Central Asia which would be available to
others in the region, which is likely to become the biggest market in the world and would
contribute to regional stability and prosperity.
Recently China has commissioned a preliminary research study to construct an international rail
link connecting its province Xinjiangs border to Pakistan. According to Chinese officials, this
new rail link, which runs through the Pamir Plateau and Karakorum mountains, will be one of the
hardest to build.
Pakistan is considering to provide shortest access and transit corridor for Kashghar goods.
Apart from Karachi and Port Qasim sea ports, Gawadar developed in cooperation with China
will provide an additional gateway and for this, China is developing in its west Kashghars
Special Economic Zone, which would link China further on the western side with Central Asia
and on its south with South Asia.
China has planned numerous mega projects to be started at Gawadar that would be
tremendously beneficial for both countries. In this regard China is planning to replicate the
model of Shanghai free Trade Zone at the sideways of Economic Corridor. Remarkably, Under
the Early Harvest Program, China had planned to pump $50billion up to 2017 into a host of
projects in Gawadar including coal, solar and wind energy units enabling Gawadar to create a
nexus between Pakistan, Iran, China and Central Asian States that would ultimately generate
billions of dollars in revenues of Pakistans kitty besides creating endurable job opportunities.
Analysts believe that, Shanghai Free Trade Zone is a perfect model to be implemented at
Gawadar. Surprisingly the SHFTZ was also initially used as a testing ground for a number of
economic and social reforms in China that showed marvelous success regarding economic
growth. SHFTZ incorporated numerous relaxations in different sectors. Under the FTZs new
capital registration system, foreign investors are no longer required to contribute I5 percent
capital within three months and full capital within two years of the establishment of a Foreign
Invested Enterprise (FIE).
The Free Trade Zone at Gawadar would also introduce the similar incentives to the foreign
investors as are offered in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, which will turn the Gawadar a hub of
foreign investment. Both the Pakistani and Chinese governments are eager to invest in this
plan. It is expected that, the establishment of the special economic zone, free trade zone, and
export processing zone in the port city would create innumerable job opportunities for Pakistans
skilled and unskilled manpower, which will ultimately raise the living standard of the people of
Pakistan.
According to Chinese investment plans, Baluchistan has a share of 38pc, by generating
economic activities ensuing to the modern infrastructure facilities and ample employment
opportunities for the locals that will also end the anti-state activities in Baluchistan.
The Chinese investors have evinced serious interest in acquiring land in the vicinity of Gawadar
Port Free Zone for developing the Industrial parks around. It would, therefore be advantageous
for the natural endowments of Baluchistan including Oil, Gas, Copper, Gemstones, Marble and
Gold reserves that would better be exploited by providing the professional training to the local
manpower in conjunction with the soft loan schemes to help create a network of micro and small
enterprises in the province.
Pakistan and China have signed agreements for constructing an international airport at
Gawadar, for upgrading a section of the 1,300-kilometre Karakorum Highway connecting to
Islamabad and of a fiber-optic cable to be laid from the Chinese border to the Pakistani city of
Rawalpindi. According the Analysts with the development of the corridor, Central Asia,
traditionally an economically closed region owing to its geography and lack of infrastructure will
have greater access to the sea and to the global trade network.
Besides extending cooperation in the developmental projects in Pakistan, China is also
providing all out assistance to Pakistan in the field of civil nuclear technology. Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif inaugurated two Chinese sponsored nuclear power projects of 1100MW each in
Karachi last year. Earlier, China helped Pakistan in establishing four civil nuclear power plants
(including two under construction) at Chasma. China provided this assistance to Pakistan
despite the concern of US and its allies on Pak-China civil nuclear cooperation.
China has assured Pakistan that; it would consolidate its friendship with Pakistan no matter
how the international situation is changed. Pakistan too considers its friendship with China as
the cornerstone of its foreign policy. In the rapidly changing geo-strategic and security
environment, both countries are likely to face many regional and global challenges. The need of
the hour is that, leadership of both countries should work in close collaboration for further
cementing the traditional Sino-Pak relationship. In the wordings of Chinese Premier Li, to be
friends forever is the cherished desire of both nations.
our priorities right and without moving in the right direction, we cannot attain the goal that we have in our mind for the
people of Pakistan, the prime minister added.
Expressing his dissatisfaction over the briefing, the prime minister gave one week to the Ministry of Communications
to complete its work and ordered to arrange a follow-up briefing after that.
He further directed the ministries of communications, railways and planning to keep their homework up-to-date to
take the process of cooperation with China on the Pak-China economic corridor to next level of implementation. He
also gave his approval in principle for the restructuring of the Planning and Development Division. Under the
restructuring plan, the Planning Division will get the status of a think tank for the highest policy input and the Ministry
of Planning and Development will be renamed as Planning, Development and Reforms Division.
Minister for Finance Muhammad Ishaq Dar, Minister for Information Pervaiz Rashid, Minister for Planning and
Development Ahsan Iqbal, Minister for Railways Khawaja Saad Rafiq, Special Assistant to the PM Tariq Fatimi and
senior officials of the Ministries of Planning, Railways and Communications attended the briefing.
Shapes
Pakistans
Afghan
Policy?
This is an equally important question that the report discusses under civil-military relations. If
Islamabad has to really reset its relations with Afghanistan, then there has to be a reset within
Pakistan in terms of who formulates its Afghan policy.
The Establishment - the military and the ISI - are bound to be conservative and averse to risks in
taking bold new steps and completely changing the policy outlook towards Afghanistan (and India as
well). The ICG report hints about the inability of the Parliament to produce a coherent
document/doctrine that would be seen as a viable alternative plan. If there are serious capacity
problems within the Parliament along with delicate civil-military relations further complicating foreign
policy decision-making by the elected leaders, there is little reset likely to happen in terms of
Pakistans relations with Afghanistan.
The real and hard question is whether both the Sharifs (the Prime Minister and the Chief of Army
Staff) are in sync in terms of Pakistans relations with Afghanistan. Or, is the civilian Sharif under the
shadow of the khakis and has only limited influence in shaping an independent policy towards
Afghanistan (and also visvis India)?
In the absence of a credible alternative narrative, the media debate is likely to influence and shape
the civil societys thinking. If the media debates are well informed, without biases and not planted,
then it is bound to create a new narrative. However, if the media debate is influenced by embedded
and partisan inputs supporting the primary arguments of select State and non-State actors, there is
little that the civil society can do in terms of advancing a new narrative.
Perhaps it is because of the above two factors, the failure of Parliament and the civil society to
produce a strong alternate narrative, despite an intention to change Pakistans policy towards
Afghanistan, that it has not transformed into a tangible doctrine. Or perhaps, those institutions that
actually formulate and implement Pakistans foreign policy are stronger in resisting the change.
Unless the intention to change becomes evident in action, resetting Pakistans relations with
Afghanistan will stay on paper and as an idea.
...And
Through
What
Strategies?
This should be the third related question along with what shapes and who shapes Pakistans Afghan
relations. The report talks about Pakistans proxies and its own version of a Monroe Doctrine vis-a-vis
Afghanistan; both will remain a crucial problem in resetting relations.
Of the four sets of non-State actors criss-crossing the Durand Line the Afghan Taliban, Huqqani
Network, TTP and other Pakistani groups (such as the Lashkar, Jaish, Punjabi Taliban) - any action by
Pakistan supporting one and opposing another is less likely to yield positive responses. If the Pakistani
Taliban provides sanctuary for their Afghan counterparts within FATA and KP, it is only natural that the
latter extends the same to the former in Khost, Nuristan and other provinces across the Durand Line.
Fighting the TTP but supporting the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network is unlikely help Pakistan to
reset its relations with Afghanistan. There seems to be an illusion within Pakistan that their security
forces are fighting the Taliban and hence the problem is being addressed. However, until there is a
realisation that Pakistans counter-terrorism approach is selective and counter-productive to its own
larger national interests, the possibility of resetting Pakistans relations with Afghanistan (and India)
will remain a far cry.
As the attack on the Wagah post in Pakistan would highlight, today the militants based in Pakistan are
no more the proxies of the Establishment. The non-State actors in Pakistan are clear and know what
they want. Do the State actors have the same clarity?
and
everywhere?
The answer is no and this simplistic take of a very multifarious socio-political occurrence has made the
revolution game all the more problematic and difficult to explain. When selling the concept of
revolution or inqilab to an eager audience, often omitted is the fact that revolution in its pure and
classic sense sought ultimate sacrifice and bloodshed. There never was a promise that a revolutionary
change would occur without claiming is fair share of collateral.
Pakistan after months of fascinating sneak peeks and good marketing strategy that really kept the
public engaged and interested has been experiencing its own political reality show for nearly the
third marathon week. The plot was simple but convincing: two public figures with ample public support
hold onto a convincing agenda and march onto the capital city. If things were to tamper down, a bit of
real-time entertainment with media going ballistic with 24/7 coverage and breaking-news tickers do
damage-control. But what makes such revolutionaries successful? First, a public that is more than
willing to give chance to new people who empathise with the latter and/or understand their daily woes
and are willing to offer an alternative. Second, the ruling party that after making tall promises while
electioneering, very typically severs its connection with the same public that votes it to power.
If, as South Asians, we look around the neighborhood, we find similar symptoms. There is democracy,
but used and abused at will by the democrats. The process of electioneering and the various attached
institutions have been abused and corrupted and this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Tahirul QadriImran Khan double-march into Islamabad came with a lot of hype. Supporting complimentary
agendas, both the inqilabis had their loyal supporters. 20 days on, the siege stands strong, but so
does the government. One demand put forth by Qadri regarding an FIR against the prime minister,
the chief minister and many Punjab assembly influentials for the killing of 14 Minhaj workers was
finally lodged after much delay exposing the biases and laxities of the justice system. Demands for
electoral and legislative reforms, though being given substantial lip-service, havent yet been given
serious consideration by concerned quarters.
30 August-1 September proved to be the most happening, as not only were attempts made to clear
the constitution avenue off the inqilabis who were egged-on by their imaginative leadership to march
onto the parliament house with the prime ministers residence as the next stop which resulted in
tear-gas and rubber bullet shelling by an equally bored police force brought in great numbers from all
over Punjab. Islamabad, which already sported a haunted look courtesy the umpteenth confiscated
containers strategically blocking one third of the citys main arteries (notwithstanding the other
quarter dug-up for a mega transport project) became a battleground. Speculations of a soft military
takeover facilitating an interim setup as well as alternate names for a new chief minister became
rife. Adding spice to this political curry, alleged supporters of the two protesting parties staged a token
takeover of the state television channel.
What happened next? Unfortunately for those seeking a repeat of distributing sweets when Pervez
Musharraf staged a takeover, the military firmly exercised restraint, though correcting the political
government, if ever it tried to entangle the former in the mess, or misquote it. For the government,
with open support from its allies and opposition in the parliament, it stands strong and seems to have
regained the confidence it lacked before 30 August. As aptly stated by opposition leader Aitzaz Ahsan
that one good outcome of this crisis was that the prime minister finally made an appearance in the
national assembly. For Khan and Qadri, the longer the siege maintains, the lesser the chances for
salvaging their parties and political ideals unless the various interlocutors facilitate a win-win
situation
for
all
parties
concerned.
Does this mean the government won? A timely battle yes, but the Sharifs who were famously voted in
for their better governance and financial prowess today stand severely criticised by their one-time
loyal constituents for not living up to their promises.
Investing in projects that have failed to bring short to long-term relief for the common man and the
entire N-League maintaining an arrogant attitude towards everything only made them more
unpopular. The general public, although not fully supportive of Khan and Qadri, are unhappy with the
ruling class. Unfortunately, the siege has set a precedent for any political actor to garner sufficient
support and camp in front of the parliament. The demands put forth by the protestors and their
leaders are not unjust; but the interlocutors must facilitate a passage for genuine reforms and
changes in the legislative and electoral process to check and prevent malpractices to ensure greater
transparency as a necessary first step towards genuine democratic rule.
by the governments in Islamabad and Lahore, coupled with ever rising stridency in the positions of
Khan and Qadri, have brought the situation to a point where an honourable exit for any of the main
protagonists
seems
next
to
impossible.
This means while all the protagonists are going for broke they believe they will either worst their
adversary or suffer grievous and maybe even irrecoverable damage to their politics none of them is
going to emerge from this battle unscathed. The only winner will be the cat (read Pakistan Army)
which made the monkeys (read Pakistan's political class) fight over the spoils of power. After all,
Pakistan is a unique case where even the courts have upheld the legitimacy of military coups by
calling them a revolution!
Clearly, neither Imran Khan nor Tahirul Qadri have thought through the logic of what they are
demanding. This is hardly surprising considering that someone else has been doing the thinking for
them. The dialectics of their demands is that unless Nawaz Sharif is ready to roll over and play dead
which is extremely unlikely the only way they can get what they want is through an extraconstitutional takeover. Bizarrely, even as they both emphatically stand against any military
intervention, they are pushing things in a direction where the political logjam can only be broken by
such
an
intervention.
For his part, Nawaz Sharif is showing remarkable and uncharacteristic composure, and even a spirit of
accommodation towards Khans and Qadris clearly illegitimate, illogical and illegal demands. But
sooner or later, Sharif will dig in his heels. Already, some of his advisors are reported to be telling him
that any big compromise on the demands of the agitationists will irretrievably damage the government
and render it a virtual lame-duck in practically all important aspects of national policy making. If that
happens, Sharif might continue to enjoy the title of prime minister but will wield as much power as the
head of a municipality. The trouble for the ruling party is that this is precisely what the army wants if
Nawaz Sharif is to continue in office.
While the army has fixed Sharif nice and proper, and it is quite apparent by now that Sharif can only
survive if he accepts subservience to the military, it is still unclear if the military has a plan to deescalate the political crisis. Will Khan accept the militarys diktat? What will be the quid pro quo which
helps him keep his face among his supporters whom he has charged to an unsustainable level? Will
the sop offered to Imran Khan be acceptable to Sharif, especially if it involves anything beyond
electoral reforms? And if Khan refuses to back down, will the army force Sharif out of office? For the
army, to cut Khan and Qadri down to size at this stage means losing a potent political tool to keep
Sharif under pressure something they would be averse to doing.
But deposing Sharif will also not solve the problem because that would set in motion the destabilising
politics of the 1990s. Worse, even if Nawaz Sharif eats the humble pie and Khan backs down this time,
the government will remain in crisis mode for the rest of its term, something that will seriously
distract it from its ambitious economic agenda. Most importantly, if this round of the political slugfest
ends in a draw, it will only set the stage for the next round of an even worse civil-military
confrontation, which wont be long in coming. What this means is that all those singing hosannas for
democracy having finally stuck roots in Pakistan need to start singing dirges.
process
(whatever
it
may
be)
substantially.
A recent statement by the new-kid-on-the-block, Bilawal Bhutto, regarding wresting the entire
Kashmir from India got a knee-jerk reaction from across the border. Interestingly, one set of replies
was hacking of the Pakistan Peoples Party web site by an Indian group which posted propaganda stuff
with inflammatory statements. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif too, much to New Delhis
displeasure highlighted the plight of Kashmiris at the recently concluded UNGA session in New York.
Immediately, conspiracy theorists hinted at a silent pledge between Sharif and Modi regarding silence
over
the
K-word.
However, what has intentionally been forgotten in this entire conflict narrative is the plight of floodaffected Kashmiri population, which has suffered loss of lives and livelihood.
Cross-LoC fire has unfortunately become a barometer of India-Pakistan relations. Sooner or later the
guns will fall silent, after claiming many lives both civilian and military, with unpleasant words
exchanged and angry gesturing at the political level. In the worse-case scenario, it may require a
higher level of deployment, but that is highly unlikely. What it will claim in its wake is a chunk of
peace, and a window of opportunity to act wisely by either side and discuss the problem, rather than
indulging
in
blind
rage
and
provocative
statements.
Although New Delhi does not accord the same status to UNMOGIP than Pakistan, the latters proposal
of making this office more proactive may not be a bad idea. Apparently, sticking to bilateralism and
seeking a third partys role behind the curtains which results in crisis stability has become a norm for
the two neighbors. The current crossfire, while may apparently look like a good marketing strategy
with Modi allegedly approving an all-out assault will further fracture the already fragile base on
which conditional peace stands. If either side is genuinely interested in peace, there is a need for
reviewing both policies and postures.
any other place of choice, with their men and firepower. The militants, as they gained time, took the
inaction and a general lack of consensus in the political ranks as a sign of weakness and inflicted
heavy damages which included the mass killing of 26 captured security personnel, and mounted
attacks on Karachi Airport.
Any harboured illusions have since been laid to rest and since mid-June, the Pakistani armed forces
are engaged in the military operation. With 30,000 troops committed to clear militant sanctuaries,
strongholds and hideouts from the two main areas of Miranshah and Mirali, the task at hand has been
enormous. The timing was bad, given that summer could not be more unsuitable for the troops,
compounded by the beginning of the Islamic month of Ramzan within a fortnight of the operation.
The herculean task of evacuation and safe passage to the local population, whose numbers according
to the available data was around 500,000 but by now the authorities have a registered a figure around
833, 274 people. Furthermore, Pakistani authorities, after repeated requests, managed to secure the
Hamid Karzai government in Kabuls cooperation in sealing the border especially in Nuristan and
Kunar provinces, and also disallow sanctuaries to fleeing militants on Afghan soil; but this
arrangement now appears in jeopardy after a fatal strike from the Afghan side on a Pakistani military
patrol, claiming several lives.
The resolve with which the military is dealing this decisive blow is evident to all, but not without
skeptics and criticism. The prime criticism is that the military strike occurred too late in the day,
allowing an easy and timely escape to the main culprits. Yet, the zero tolerance policy towards the TTP
and its local or foreign affiliates is what was long needed. In the absence of an embedded media, the
only narrative available is the militarys. In response, the military provided a guided tour of the 80%
cleared town of Miranshah to the media. Will the military operation be sufficient in flushing out the
militants and the larger issue of terrorism? Definitely not. This is just one aspect of the larger
nationwide effort, which needs to tackle militant strongholds and nurseries in other parts of the
country; check the inflow of money and support these actors receive from all quarters; maintain a
zero tolerance approach, and strengthen governance, law and order as well as judicial protocols in
handling such issues. This wont be easy, given how despite a public demand for stiffer security
measures, the Protection of Pakistan ordinance (POPO) has met with enormous criticism. To date, the
authorities remain indecisive over the placement of the National Counter-terrorism Authority.
At the moment, the greater challenge is the assistance and finally rehabilitation and resettlement of
the Internally Displaced Persons, supplemented by developing infrastructure and self-sustaining
institutional mechanisms for the affected population. It is high time the government breaks old great
game buffer myths, abolish the British made FCR, and accord full provincial status to the seven
agencies. The success of the Operation will carry positive dividends for both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
There is a need to stand united for a sustained, stable and peaceful future that can help assure
prosperity and better regional relations.
Factories are humming, raw materials are moving freely on the roads, people are
commuting to and from work, cellular communications remain uninterrupted.
The rupee has seen some declines, more likely due to developments intrinsic to the
markets themselves rather than the crisis.
Forex reserves are broadly stable, the stock market has seen good days and bad
throughout this affair, and there have been only marginal declines.
Also Read: Stocks fall as political strife continues
Even the collection of taxes and recovery of bills in the power sector are normal, despite
calls for civil disobedience.
Attempts to spread the rallies to Lahore and Karachi and other cities have floundered
and there has been little disruption in day-to-day life anywhere else in Pakistan, with no
general strikes, no closures of roads and petrol pumps, schools or offices, no halt in
public transport.
Beyond this, however, the damage is huge, difficult to quantify, and of a lasting nature.
Those looking in from the outside are asking how sturdy the political system in Pakistan
really is.
Talks with the IMF are at a standstill, and it is likely that the next tranche will be delayed.
The World Bank is worried about the future of its massive Country Partnership Strategy,
worth $11bn and announced just this April.
Meanwhile, government work has ground to a halt, and although the machinery
continues to function in the rest of the country, the ministries and secretariats and
committees are all on standby.
In short, whereas daily life is largely untouched, the strategic outlook for the country has
suffered a considerable blow.
This is the exact opposite of what street politics is meant to do.
Crippling everyday life yields maximum political dividends and leaves no lasting
damage, but harming the strategic outlook brings no political rewards and causes
lasting damage to the economy.
This is why street politics usually targets the operation of daily life in the cities rather
than fighting in the streets of the capital. In this case, however, the reverse has
happened we saw fighting in the streets of the capital while it was business as usual
everywhere else.
It is disheartening to note that this confrontational strategy was used by the PTI, a party
that drew ample support from professional and corporate circles precisely those who
are heavily invested in the strategic outlook and a party that prided itself for its focus
on the economy.
They should have reconsidered the decision to resort to street politics if they lacked the
capacity to credibly wage the fight. Once the passions wane and the rallies disperse,
perhaps the party leadership should reflect on the consequences of their actions.
There are some amongst them who were hailed as exemplars of professional
excellence, and those people will now need to explain the merits of their decisions to a
very sceptical audience.
Polio emergency
WHEN the world embarked on its fight against polio decades ago, amongst the
most iconic images coming from Pakistan was that of the then prime minister,
Benazir Bhutto, administering the drops to her child.
Since then, millions upon millions have been poured into the initiative and in much of
the world, the dreaded virus has been eradicated altogether. In Pakistan, though, things
have gone far from as planned.
Also read: Ecnec approves Rs33bn polio plan
This now remains one of the worlds three polio-endemic countries the others being
Afghanistan and Nigeria and, much more frighteningly, the only one where the
crippling disease seems to be on the resurgence.
For years now, Pakistan has received aid in cash and kind from all sorts of donors, and
has been materially helped by international polio eradication initiatives, because it was
recognised that a polio-free world cannot be envisaged unless all countries are taken
along; this states abysmal rate of success even though matters reached such a pass
that the WHO was forced to issue a travel advisory for unvaccinated travellers in May
would suggest that it has all been money and effort down the drain.
Since the fight is too important to be abandoned, though, helping hands continue to
reach out. On Friday, the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council
approved a Rs33bn emergency plan to battle the virus.
The plan is made possible through loans running into millions of dollars from sources
including the Islamic Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation
Agency, with the tab for interest on these loans being picked up by the Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation.
Under an agreement with the lending agencies, the loans will be converted into grants if
Pakistan succeeds in eradicating polio. It can thus be argued that for an already
indebted country such as this, there is an economic reason to urgently ramp up its
efforts. That said, however, Pakistan needs to wake up to the fact that its interests stand
compromised in all sorts of ways by the increasing incidence of polio.
Over 20 cases have been detected this month alone, and the count for this year so far
is soaring near the 150 mark. Punjab and Balochistan, which had earlier been thought
to be polio-free, have also seen the myth shattered. The new emergency plan simply
has to be made to work; the lackadaisical approach of the authorities must not lead us
into quarantine.