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产能降，价格涨，剩者为王
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产能降，价格涨，剩者为王
产能降，价格涨，剩者为王
Uploaded by
bensonngCopyright:
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[table_research]
2012 11 6
[table_main]
CFA
86106656 8589
40%
60%-70%
50%
8.13%
15%
xuyaowen@chinastock.com.cn
S0130511020007
86106656 8846
2009 11%
20%
huangchi@chinastock.com.cn
2012Q3 11% 21%
2013H2
2013
2011.06.28
4678
4 25
42
2000
[table_report]
2013
300133.SZ300291.SZ
EPS()
PEX
11-13EPS
2011A
2012E
2013E
2011A
2012E
2013E
CAGR
300133
0.40
0.58
0.83
42.9
29.8
20.8
44%
17.01
21.025.0
300124
1.41
2.00
2.90
38.8
27.3
18.9
43%
54.27
72.587.0
www.chinastock.com.cn
[table_page]
2013 2013
15% 2013
1 2012Q3 2
2013
2
20-30 2011-2012
3 IPO
2013
300133.SZ300291.SZ
12 2 3
123
[table_page]
................................................................................................................... 3
.......................................... 3
3 ............................................................................ 5
15% ................................................ 10
.............................................................. 10
2013 .. 12
......................................................................................................... 13
4 25 ................................................................................ 14
.............................................................................................................................................. 15
.................................................................................................................. 15
IPO ....................................................................................................... 16
.................................................................................................................................................................... 17
300133.SZ ...................................................................................... 17
300291.SZ ............................................................... 19
1 ..................................................................................................................................... 21
22011 2012H1 ...................................................................................... 22
[table_page1]
2004 414 2011 1122.9
15.3%
1
1200
25%
1000
20%
19%20%
17%
800
13%
600
12%
15%
14%
11%
10%
400
200
5%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012H1 5%CTR
1
2
3
4
2013 2012
1
2 2012
2013
[table_page1]
2
2013
10 2013
: 2013 33
2.93
7.66
161%
:
8.8 16.7 89%
9000 2
2
97 98 2005 2011
2012
CSM71 2012H1 10 5 2
3
CSM
[table_page1]
3-4 10
2
2000
2012H1
3 15%
2011 7 2011
10 1700
2200
2/3
7000 8000-9000
3
1
2012 1 24.5
74.6% 21.1%
CNNIC 2012
35 28 10
2iUserTracker-2011.1-2012.1
[table_page1]
2
iVideoTracker 50%-55%
8%-10% 35%-40%
32012 1-7
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
12.01
12.02
12.03
12.04
12.05
12.06
12.07
32012Q3
2012H1 50% VCC
10 /
2013
1
10
70% 2013-2014
22012 2011
2012Q3
50 / 8 120
/ 120 / 2
3
[table_page1]
42012 10
IPTV
9 1900 IPTV 7000
[table_page1]
1 50% 8.13%
1974 1764 89.4%
50% 70%-80%
62011
10.42%
14%
12%
11.59%
8.51%
43.96%
2011 76
8.13%
7
12%
10%
9.90%
8.32%
8%
8.11%
7.43%
8.13%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
[table_page1]
60%-70%
40%
1 DVD
2
1600
1500
1400
1200
1000
800
600
300
400
225
100
200
0
[table_page1]
/
1
4 IPTV
70%
15%
2005 2011 514 469
12265 14942 3%
2009 2010 2011
9
600
20000
500
15000
400
300
10000
200
5000
100
0
0
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A
10
[table_page1]
2001 31.1 2011 76
9.3%
2008 2009
10
YoY
80
60
15%
40
20
18%
11%
1%
8%
6%
2%
8%
-1%
28%0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
2005 2011 36 / 51 /
3%
09 11 20% 27.5%
2009 2011
11/
/
60
51
50
40
36
35
35
35
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
42
40
2009A
2010A
30
20
10
0
2011A
11
[table_page1]
2
12008 2009
11%
22009 20%
2013
12011 2
2011 2012H1
2012H1 18600 16% 2012H1
16%
2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
101
153
155
120
2532
4402
4427
3315
122
106
118
156
3335
3061
3686
4416
81
109
112
100
2420
3335
3908
3247
85
98
111
142
3167
3238
3838
4442
98
113
117
141
3054
3474
3850
4564
95
129
3332
4286
2012Q3
11% 21%
10
2012H2 2013H2
2013
2009
12
[table_page1]
3 2012Q3
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
178
208
241
182
5792
6290
7234
6052
150
254
312
234
4420
7962
9421
6915
189
310
295
163
5920
10065
9310
5945
251
331
253
8098
10502
8293
2012Q3
12010 2011
2 2 IPO
2005
60%
80%
12
13
[table_page1]
4 25
2011 4678
129
2010 436 14,685 259
1 168 2
51 3 19 4 21
1
42010
2010 1 40 / 7080 / 2012H1
120 / 50% 30004000
14
[table_page1]
2012 20 34 90%
2004
25% 15%
19002200
2000
13
15
[table_page1]
IPO
IPO 770
5
2012Q3
5.7 4.2 4.9
5
1
2
2
4
2
16
[table_page1]
300133.SZ
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
()
104.7
166.0
281.8
403.1
760.8
1052.0
EBITDA()
36.8
70.2
114.7
181.3
280.8
427.0
()
38.3
55.5
96.2
154.0
222.1
317.8
EPS()
0.10
0.14
0.25
0.40
0.58
0.83
PE(X)
172.8
119.1
68.8
42.9
29.8
20.8
EV/EBITDA(X)
11.5
9.7
0.0
14.2
20.8
13.4
PB(X)
4.7
4.0
0.8
2.5
4.8
4.1
ROIC
49.0%
48.2%
35.5%
36.3%
49.1%
0.88
0.39
0.30
0.49
0.59
2013 2013
15% 2013
2012-2013 2012 400 ( 300 ) 500-600
15%-20%
1 2012Q3 2
2013
2
20-30 2011-2012
3 IPO
2012-2013 EPS 0.58 0.83 44% 43%
PE30X 21X
1 23
1 23
17
[table_page1]
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
969.1
773.2
807.3
945.7
281.8
403.1
760.8
1052.0
0.0
3.5
2.2
4.1
121.7
155.2
330.3
443.6
36.6
140.7
192.8
268.4
15.0
21.9
41.3
57.1
95.7
229.4
297.3
399.2
11.9
16.5
32.0
43.1
1.4
8.7
9.9
13.9
19.8
28.2
83.7
94.7
79.8
134.1
282.2
276.8
-4.0
-20.8
-16.4
-16.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
5.0
9.4
13.0
19.5
45.9
45.0
30.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
15.8
7.5
13.8
-0.5
-2.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
117.4
194.5
280.6
417.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.3
16.8
26.6
22.6
2.7
11.7
-3.0
-12.8
129.6
211.4
307.2
439.5
1211.0
1473.0
1641.2
1939.1
33.4
55.4
80.5
115.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
96.2
156.0
226.7
324.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
96.2
154.0
222.1
317.8
4.2
28.6
30.0
45.3
0.0
2.0
4.6
6.6
8.9
36.2
76.5
77.8
0.25
0.40
0.58
0.83
0.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
0.25
0.40
0.58
0.83
4.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
4.7
65.2
123.0
170.0
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.4
69.8%
43.0%
88.8%
38.3%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EBIT
63.0%
59.7%
50.9%
51.2%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
73.2%
60.1%
44.2%
43.1%
23.2
165.2
256.7
321.6
1187.8
1307.8
1384.9
1612.1
56.8%
61.5%
56.6%
57.8%
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
34.1%
38.2%
29.2%
30.2%
96
156
227
324
ROE
14.0%
12.5%
16.9%
21.8%
13
ROIC
48.17%
35.51%
36.30%
49.06%
28
-49
57
208
-22
-77
-9
PE
68.8
42.9
29.8
20.8
896
-93
-24
P/S
3.5
8.2
8.7
6.3
902
-126
-45
190
P/B
0.8
2.5
4.8
4.1
69
969
773
807
0.0%
3.3%
0.6%
0.9%
970
843
728
997
EV/EBITDA
0.0
14.2
20.8
13.4
18
[table_page1]
300291.SZ
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
()
83.9
111.4
220.3
287.3
458.5
664.8
EBITDA()
20.2
29.0
51.0
117.8
156.3
228.5
()
15.9
22.0
35.8
84.4
119.9
173.7
EPS()
0.27
0.37
0.60
1.41
2.00
2.90
PE(X)
205.4
149.2
91.6
38.8
27.3
18.9
EV/EBITDA(X)
35.2
25.5
48.5
20.7
18.4
12.6
PB(X)
9.4
7.2
18.7
11.4
3.5
3.0
ROIC
16.9%
25.2%
51.5%
31.3%
27.2%
0.51
0.76
0.80
0.59
0.54
2013 2013
15% 2013
2012-2013 30%
1 2012Q3 2
2013
2
20-30 2011-2012
3 IPO
2012-2013 EPS 2.02 2.90 44% 45%
PE27X 20X
1 234
123
19
[table_page1]
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
83.4
94.7
391.5
389.9
220.3
287.3
458.5
664.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
140.5
138.2
257.0
371.9
84.6
124.9
251.9
294.5
11.4
15.1
22.9
33.2
32.5
49.6
205.6
297.6
10.2
3.2
4.6
6.6
1.2
1.7
2.6
3.7
7.8
13.6
18.3
25.3
91.5
149.1
273.4
338.0
5.4
6.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
3.1
4.9
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
3.0
2.4
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
42.6
108.0
150.7
220.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
46.6
112.0
155.7
225.6
296.8
424.8
1127.4
1325.8
11.8
28.7
38.9
56.4
40.0
69.5
0.0
0.0
34.8
83.3
116.8
169.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.8
84.4
119.9
173.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-1.1
-3.1
-4.5
8.2
36.7
72.2
85.5
0.60
1.41
2.00
2.90
0.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.79
1.88
2.00
2.90
13.1
14.4
14.4
14.4
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
43.4
58.3
93.1
135.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
97.7%
30.4%
59.6%
45.0%
60.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
EBIT
78.7%
132.4%
32.9%
46.3%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
62.9%
135.9%
42.1%
44.9%
165.4
210.0
180.5
235.7
131.5
214.8
947.3
1090.5
36.2%
51.9%
43.9%
44.0%
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
16.2%
29.4%
26.2%
26.1%
35
83
117
169
ROE
32.1%
49.2%
20.6%
17.0%
ROIC
25.16%
51.54%
31.32%
27.18%
45
19
-249
25
-2
-1
-1
-1
PE
91.6
38.8
27.3
18.9
-6
546
-26
P/S
11.2
8.6
7.1
4.9
50
12
297
-2
P/B
18.7
11.4
3.5
3.0
53
83
95
391
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.8%
103
95
391
390
EV/EBITDA
48.5
20.7
18.4
12.6
20
[table_page1]
IPTV
IPTV
14
21
[table_page1]
22011 2012H1
82011 30
3.43
2.5
2.13
2.07
1.75
1.71
1.58
1.54
1.52
10
1.45
11
1.32
12
1.32
13
1.3
14
1.3
15
1.28
16
1.27
17
1.23
18
1.23
19
1.18
20
1.17
KBS
21
1.16
22
1.14
23
1.14
24
1.12
25
1.12
26
1.11
27
1.1
KBS2
28
1.08
29
1.06
30
1.05
(
)
SBS
22
[table_page1]
92012H1 50
2.77
6.91
2.49
11.42
2.01
5.39
2.01
4.45
1.79
4.37
1.73
8.51
1.71
4.25
1.61
4.08
1.59
3.93
10
1.57
4.29
11
1.57
4.19
12
1.48
3.69
13
1.47
3.69
14
1.47
3.86
15
1.46
3.78
16
1.46
3.81
17
1.42
3.47
18
1.37
3.42
19
1.34
3.53
20
1.32
3.21
21
1.31
3.48
22
1.3
3.52
23
1.27
3.46
24
1.26
3.07
25
1.25
3.47
26
1.25
3.4
27
1.23
3.24
28
1.21
3.33
29
1.21
3.29
30
1.19
3.05
31
1.19
6.04
32
1.19
3.23
33
1.18
3.16
34
1.17
3.19
35
1.14
2.87
36
1.13
2.96
37
1.13
2.81
23
[table_page1]
38
39
40
41
42
43
1.12
3.09
1.09
2.76
1.09
2.77
1.08
2.67
1.08
2.95
1.08
2.68
44
1.07
2.76
45
1.06
2.93
46
1.06
2.56
47
1.06
2.84
48
1.04
2.84
49
1.03
2.85
50
1.03
2.6
24
[table_page1]
1 ............................................................................................................................. 3
2iUserTracker-2011.1-2012.1 ........................................................................... 5
32012 1-7 ......................................................................................................... 6
42012 10 .............................................................................................................................. 7
5 ..................................................................................................................................... 7
62011 ................................................................................................................ 8
7 ............................................................................................................. 8
8 ................................................................................................................................. 9
9 ....................................................................................................................................................... 10
10 ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
11/ .................................................................................................................................... 11
12 ............................................................................................................................................. 13
13 ............................................................................................................................. 15
14 ......................................................................................................................................................... 21
1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
2 ................................................................................................... 12
3 2012Q3 ............................................................................. 13
42010 .......................................................................................................... 14
5 ................................................................................................................................................... 16
6 ................................................................................................................................................... 18
7 ................................................................................................................................................... 20
82011 30 .................................................................................................................... 22
92012H1 50 ....................................................................................................... 23
25
[table_page1]
612
20%
10%
612
20%
612
10%20%
612
612
10%
CFA
26
[table_page1]
[table_avow]
[table_contact]
35 C
99 26
26
010-83574171
021-20257811
0755-83453719
fuchuxiong@chinastock.com.cn
hetingting@chinastock.com.cn
zhanlu@chinastock.com.cn
www.chinastock.com.cn
27
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