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SMFG PDF
SMFG PDF
SMFG PDF
Table Of Contents
Major Rating Factors
Rationale
Outlook:
Related Criteria And Research
Note
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Anchor
a-
Business
Position
+
+1
Capital and
Earnings
Moderate
-1
Risk Position
Adequate
Additional
Factors
GRE Support
A+/Negative/A-1
Group
Support
0
Bank Holding Company Rating
Above
Average
+1
Liquidity
Strong
Funding
+1
Support
Strong
Sovereign
Support
+1
A/Negative/A-1
Weaknesses:
Rationale
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services bases its ratings on Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (SMFG) on the
company's "strong" business position, "moderate" capital and earnings, "adequate" risk position, "above average"
funding, "strong" liquidity, and a "high" likelihood of government support. The stand-alone credit profile (SACP) on the
operating bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. (SMBC), is 'a'.
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of core deposits in funding and prudent regulatory monitoring. On the other hand, we consider the banking sector as
fragmented with overcapacity, and those factors are evidenced by generally low earnings capacity.
Table 1
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
142,446
141,896
136,817
132,207
118,784
67,445
67,317
64,420
63,083
64,541
5,445
4,872
4,309
4,128
3,913
Operating revenues
1,518
2,798
2,563
2,491
2,215
Noninterest expenses
741
1,421
1,355
1,291
1,106
Core earnings
575
1,050
754
709
442
*Fiscal year ended March 31 of the following year. Data as of Sept. 30.
Capital and earnings: Moderate with the RAC ratio expected to remain below 7%
SMFG's capital and earnings are "moderate" based on our expectations that the risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio will
remain in the 6.0%-7.0% range over the next two years. In SMFG's risk-weighted assets before adjustments based on
the RAC framework as of March 2013, about 30% was attributable to market risk, which includes its exposures to
equities and funds-related holdings. This makes SMFG's RAC ratio susceptible to the volatility of unrealized gains on
its securities holdings.
In our view, there is a large gap between SMFG's RAC ratio and its consolidated regulatory Tier 1 capital ratio, which
was 12.1% as of September 2013. The difference mainly reflects: 1) a material difference in the risk-weights applied to
the equity holdings in the banking book--for equity exposure in Japan, Standard & Poor's imposes risk-weights of 688%
for listed securities and 813% for unlisted securities, significantly higher than the regulatory risk weight, which is lower
than 150% on average; 2) higher risk weights applied to securitization exposures; and 3) the exclusion of regulatory
hybrid capital from Standard & Poor's total adjusted capital (TAC). We limit the inclusion of hybrids in TAC, based on
equity content classification. We assess SMFG's capital quality as "adequate" with hybrid securities accounting for
approximately 20% of the group's TAC in March 2013. The earnings buffer is projected to be around 100 basis points
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(bps) in the next one to two years, which is modest in global comparison. We expect the group's profitability to remain
modest but stable in terms of return on assets in comparison with global peers. Net interest income and fees and
commissions made up more than 80% of the group's revenues during fiscal 2012 and trading revenues made up a
limited share of approximately 10%, which was mainly derived from trading gains on government bonds.
Table 2
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
12.1
10.9
12.3
12.5
11.2
84.4
80.5
78.8
75.2
75.2
Double leverage
133.8
132.6
133.7
126.8
125.7
51.4
49.8
52.3
52.9
62.3
32.4
32.5
32.2
30.8
27.6
8.3
10.0
13.7
15.4
10.4
48.8
50.8
52.9
51.8
49.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
*Fiscal year ended March 31 of the following year. Data as of Sept. 30.
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Although SMFG's consumer finance subsidiaries such as SMBC Consumer Finance and Cedyna have been facing
difficulties due to large claims for refunds of so-called gray zone overpaid interest and the amended Money Lending
Business Law, the consumer finance market has recently shown signs of stabilization, in our opinion. While the
consumer finance segment may need additional provisions, we expect the scale of such provisions to be well within a
manageable level for the group. We also expect the performance of SMFG's consumer finance business to stabilize.
In our view, SMFG faces high market risk from its cross-shareholdings and government bond portfolio. However, its
equity exposures-related risk is sufficiently covered by the RAC ratio through a high risk-weight. The bank is sensitive
to interest rate risk, which is not captured in the RAC ratio. It holds approximately 17 trillion of yen-denominated
bonds on a nonconsolidated operating bank basis as of September 2013, which could hurt its financial standing if the
interest rate were to rise. The average duration of its yen bond portfolio was 1.4 years as of September 2013.
Nevertheless, we note that SMFG has reduced its interest rate risk most significantly among Japanese major banks in
2013, and believe that SMFG will be able to manage the interest rate risk as long as any increase in the yen-based
interest rate remains within one percentage point.
For SMFG, our adjustment for concentration and diversification of risks is strong. The RAC ratio after adjustment
improved 0.8 percentage point; the effect of risk diversification from business and risk type surpassed the effect of risk
concentration.
In our view, the group's business complexity is average compared to its peers; the complexity of its large size is offset
by its limited investment banking business. The majority of its revenue from the securities subsidiaries is derived from
the retail business, which is relatively stable.
Table 3
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0.4
4.5
2.1
(2.3)
(3.8)
27.4
30.5
33.2
33.4
31.5
(0.1)
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.6
(0.2)
0.3
0.7
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.4
52.8
55.1
54.2
64.3
69.8
*Fiscal year ended March 31 of the following year. Data as of Sept. 30.
Funding and liquidity: Strong and backed by a sizable retail deposit base and ample liquidity
SMFG's funding is "above average" and its liquidity position is "strong," in our opinion. SMFG's large retail branch
network provides it with a stable base of core deposits that it draws from to meet its funding needs. As of March 2013,
core customer deposits made up 72% of its funding base. Individual deposits, which are more stable, made up 42% of
its total deposits on a nonconsolidated basis.
Its ratio of total loans to customer deposits was 75% as of March 2013 (not including certificates of deposits),
indicating strong liquidity. Unrestricted cash and Japanese government bond holdings more than covered its
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2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
73.0
72.4
71.0
71.1
76.2
73.8
74.5
75.4
75.6
80.7
*Fiscal year ended March 31 of the following year. Data as of Sept. 30.
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than the bank's ICR, reflecting subordination risk. The bonds are conventional non-deferrable subordinated debt.
Outlook:
The negative outlook reflects our view that the ICR on SMFG, which incorporates one notch of government support,
would be lowered should the sovereign rating on Japan be lowered. The outlook on the sovereign rating on Japan is
negative. A downward revision in the SACP would also result in a downgrade for SMFG, although we do not expect
material deterioration in the bank's SACP in the medium term because it is largely supported by an adequate financial
profile. We expect the RAC ratio to remain at 6.0%-7.0%, and profitability in terms of return on assets is likely to
remain low but stable at approximately 0.3%-0.4%. We expect SMFG's credit risk profile to remain close to the current
level with credit loss provisions to loans at approximately 0.3%. Conversely, we could raise the rating if the group's
capitalization and earnings improve substantially, which we consider an unlikely scenario in the near future given the
low interest rate environment and intense competition in lending markets.
Note
The Ratings Detail section below should also contain a commercial paper foreign currency rating of 'A-1' for Sumitomo
Mitsui Banking Corp.
Anchor Matrix
Economic Risk
Industry
Risk
1
2
10
a-
bbb+
bbb+
a-
a-
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb
bbb-
a-
a-
bbb+
bbb+
bbb
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bbb+
bbb+
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb
bbb+
bbb
bbb
bbb
bbb
bbb
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb-
b+
bbb-
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb
bb
bb-
b+
bbb-
bbb-
bb+
bb+
bb
bb
bb-
b+
b+
bb+
bb
bb
bb
bb-
bb-
b+
9
10
bb
bb-
bb-
b+
b+
b+
b+
b+
b+
b-
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A/Negative/A-1
A/Negative/A-1
18-Jun-2007
A/Stable/A-1
19-Mar-2007
A-/Watch Pos/A-2
Sovereign Rating
Japan (Unsolicited Ratings)
AA-/Negative/A-1+
Related Entities
SMBC Derivative Products Ltd.
Issuer Credit Rating
AA/Negative/--
A+/Negative/A-1
BBB
BBB
BBB
BBB
BBB
A+/Negative/A-1
Certificate Of Deposit
Foreign Currency
A+/A-1
Junior Subordinated
BBB+
Senior Unsecured
A+
Short-Term Debt
A-1
Subordinated
A+/Negative/A-1
cnAAA/--/cnA-1+
A+/Negative/A-1
BBB/Stable/A-2
ruAAA/--/--
*Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on the global scale are comparable
across countries. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country.
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