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Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Lecture Plan
Heteroskedasticity-robust inference
Feasible GLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
What is heteroskedasticity?
= 0 + 1 x 1 + 2 x 2 + + k x k +
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
Homoskedasticity
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
Heteroskedasticity
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Simulate examples
true model:
y
= 0 + 1 x + = 1 + 2x +
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Heteroskedasticity
Homoskedasticity vs Heteroskedasticity
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
The OLS estimator is unbiased and consistent when MLR 1-4 hold,
b c
j
b ),
se(
j
where se(bj ) =
SSR/(nk1)
SSTj (1Rj )
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
MLR5 is required for using the formula of the variance of the OLS
(or F-stat) does not follow the t (or F) distribution and may lead to
wrong conclusions.
Without MLR5, the OLS is no longer asymptotically efficient.
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
- The usual standard errors (and more generally the usual estimated
covariance matrix) incorrectly describe the sampling distribution of the
OLS estimator in a small sample as well as in an arbitrarily large sample.
- The usual t statistic does not follow the t-distribution and the usual F
statistic does not follow the F-distribution, regardless of however
(arbitrarily) large the sample is.
- A major implication: when we (fail to) reject the null hypothesis using
% significance level critical values, we cant tell whether we actually (fail
to) reject the null at the % level!
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
yi = b) + b1 x1i + b2 x2i +
bi
Econometricians hardly use
SSR/(nk1)
SSTj (1Rj )
j = 1, 2
Instead, we calculate something called the estimated covariance
matrix of the OLS estimator b = (b0 , b1 , b2 )0 :
b
c ()
var
est.var (b0 )
est.cov (b0 , b1 )
est.cov (b0 , b2 )
est.cov (b0 , b1 )
est.var (b1 )
est.cov (b1 , b2 )
q
est.var (bj ) for j = 0, 1, 2
est.cov (b0 , b2 )
est.cov (b1 , b2 )
est.var (b2 )
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
The same OLS estimates can be used to compute (at least) two
(SSR)
each i
d (bj ) =
Var
n
nk 1
Pn
rij
b2i
i =1 b
2
SSRj
b =
d ()
Var
n
(X 0 X )1
nk 1
n
X
i =1
b2i xi x0i
(X 0 X )1
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Heteroskedasticity-robust inference
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Heteroskedasticity-robust inference
It is possible to adjust the OLS standard errors to make the t-stat (or
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Heteroskedasticity
A summary
y of regression
g
results
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
bj c
bj )
r .se(
std errors.
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
r SSRur )/q
r
F = (SSR
= (1Rur
2
SSRur /(nk1)
ur )/(nk1)
- To prove that the usual F-stat we get using this formula is
F-distributed, we need to assume homoskedasticity
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
large sample
Ok, what if our sample is really really large? Can we forget?
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
using x1 , , xk
Maybe we can estimate a simple linear model:
2 = E (2 |x1 , , xk ) + v = 0 + 1 x1 + 2 x2 + + k xk + v
and test the null hypothesis: i = 0 for i = 1, , k
The only problem is that we do not observe ?
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
y = 0 + 1 x 1 + + k x k +
and compute squared residuals,
b2
Step 2: Estimate the following model (also called auxiliary
b2 = 0 + 1 x1 + + k xk + v
ie., regress
b2 against all explanatory variables used in Step 1.
Let Rb22 be the R-squared from the regression in Step 2
Step 3: test H0 : 1 = 2 = = k = 0 using either the usual F or
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
H0 : 1 = 2 = = k = 0 (Homoskedasticity)
H0 is false (Heteroskedasticity)
The F-test: test for overall significance of the auxiliary regression in
Step 2: F =
2
/k
R
b2
(1R 2 2 )/(nk1)
. It is distributed as Fk,nk1
statistic exceeds the critical value or if the p-value is lower than the
significance level.
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
H0 : 1 = 2 = 0 (Homoskedasticity)
If reject: more general form of heteroskedasticity.
The F-test: test for overall significance of the auxiliary regression in
Step 2: F =
2
R
/2
b2
(1R 2 2 )/(n3)
. It is distributed as F2,n3
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
8. Heteroskedasticity
Breusch-Pagan/White
tests in Stata
FGLS
Prediction
(Ch8)
sts
Breusch-Pagan
f Economics,
UNSWtest:
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
When exactly?
If the form of heteroskedasticity is known, then this knowledge
(0 + 1 x1 + + k xk ) , exp (0 + 1 x1 + + k xk ).
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
h(x)
p
Hence, if the all variables are weighted by 1/ h(x), the model will
regain homoskedasticity.
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
y
Var (|x)
= 0 + 1 x1 + + k xk +
=
(1)
h(x)
y
p
= 0 p
p
h(x)
x1
xk
+ 1 p
+ + k p
+p
h(x)
h(x)
h(x)
h(x)
h(x)
Var |x = 2
h(x)
(2)
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
y
x1
1
h
h
h
x
k
h
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
h(x) = exp(0 + 1 x1 + + k xk )
But you dont know everything about h(x): you dont know
j , j = 0, , k
- In this case, WLS is not feasible
What would be a feasible version of WLS here?
Estimate j and use the estimates in lieu of the true j
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
b
hi
b
hi
b
hi
b
hi
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
FGLS: Stata
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
FGLS: Stata
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
y = 0 + 1 x 1 + + k x k + u
- implies that = 0 + 1 c1 + + k ck
Estimate a reparameterised model:
y = 0 + 1 (x1 c1 ) + + k (xk ck ) + u
b of
using OLS to obtain OLS estimate b and the std. error, se(),
this point prediction.
Can construct an approximate 95% confidence interval of this point
b
prediction estimate as : b 1.96se()
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Point prediction: E (y |x = c)
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Point prediction: y |x = c
Now lets predict y for a person with x1 = c1 , , xk = ck :
0 + 1 c1 + + k ck + var (|x1 = c1 , , xk = ck )
+ var (|x1 = c1 , , xk = ck )
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Point prediction: y |x = c
In the FGLS, we have assumed that :
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Suppose that everything is the same as before except that the dependent
variable is in log :
log(y ) = 0 + 1 x1 + + k xk + u
Can also compute the approx. approx. approx. 95% prediction interval for this
some one with same characteristics. (See p. 290 if interested)
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Var(|x1 , , xk )
Var(y |x1 , , xk )
E (y |x) [1 E (y |x)]
So, if we can find an estimate for the variance, that is an estimate for E (y |x) or
for the P(y |x), we can use FGLS
For the i th observation, we use OLS fitted value to construct ybi as an estimate
for E (y |x): E\
(yi |xi ) = ybi . We then construct:
b
hi = ybi (1 ybi )
If the fitted value is not inside (0, 1), FGLS should NOT be used.
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
(.007)
[.007]
(.034)
[.032]
WLS(FGLS):
c
inlf
(.004)
(.012)
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
8. Heteroskedasticity (Ch8)
LPM-FGLS: Stata
Linear probability model (LPM) and WLS
ie_Slides08
22
LPM
Introduction
Implications of HET
Het-robust inference
FGLS
Prediction
Summary
LPM