The statistical approach recognizes that it is impossible to precisely state how

accurate an observation might be, or even how accurate an observed average or

mean might be. A set of observations, which might range from a few
measurements to an extremely large number of measurements, is represented by a
single representative value and an indication of the reproducibility (uncertainty) of
the observations. The value chosen as the representative value is the average or
arithmetic mean. The indication of reproducibility is based on a quantity called
the standard deviation (). This quantity is related to the probability that a single
observation will fall within a specified range about the mean. The equations for
calculating these probabilities are based on the assumption of an extremely large
number of observations, then they are adapted to smaller numbers of observations
(as is the normal experimental situation). The adaptation to the smaller number of
observations is based on the degrees of freedom (df). In the case of an arithmetic
mean, the degrees of freedom is simply the number of observations (N) minus 1 (df
= N - 1).
The square of the standard deviation (2) is defined as the sum of the squares of
the deviations from the mean divided by the degrees of freedom. The square of the
standard deviation of the mean (mean2) is defined as the square of the standard
deviation divided by the number of observations ( mean2 = 2/N ). These quantities
are more easily understood by performing calculations
on a set
of observations:
DESCRIPCIN
BREVE
[Capte la atencin del lector con un resumen

We consider a set of 10 observations: 106,111,108,105,109,115,110,112,114,101

.
atractivo. Este resumen es una breve descripcin
del
documento. Cuando est listo para agregar

First we sum the values, then divide by the number of observations to calculate the
contenido, haga clic aqu y empiece a escribir.]
mean.

ngel Sedano Garca

[Ttulo del curso]

observations dev. of obs. from mean (dev. of obs. from mean)2

106
106 - 109.1 = - 3.1
9.61
111
111 - 109.1 = 1.9
3.61
108
108 - 109.1 = - 1.1
1.21
105
105 - 109.1 = - 4.1
16.81
109
109 - 109.1 = - 0.1
0.01
115
115 - 109.1 = 5.9
34.81
110
110 - 109.1 = 0.9
0.81
112
112 - 109.1 = 2.9
8.41
114
114 - 109.1 = 4.9
24.01
101
101 - 109.1 = - 8.1
65.61
[Subttulo
________del documento]
________________
______
sum:
1091
0.0
164.90

[TTULO DEL

DOCUMENTO]
number of observations: N = 10

degrees of freedom: df = N - 1 = 9;

mean = sum/N = 1091/10 = 109.1

Then we subtract the mean from each of the observed values.
These values are squared and summed to calculate the standard deviation and the
standard deviation of the mean.

2 = (sum of squares)/df = 164.9/9 = 18.3

mean2 = 2/N = 18.3/10 = 1.83

mean = 1.4
We have carried extra significant figures through these calculations. In practice,
there is little justification for stating an uncertainty to more than one significant
figure.
These statistical calculations assume that a large number of observations have
been used to calculate the mean and the standard deviation. When smaller
numbers of observations are used, there is less confidence that the calculated
values are really representative of the statistical probabilities. An additional factor
is introduced - the Student t-factor (W. S. Gosset published his work on this
factor under the pseudonym "Student"). The standard deviation of the mean is
multiplied by the t-factor, which is based on the degrees of freedom and the
desired confidence level to obtain the Confidence Interval () at the specified
percentage (the level of confidence). An abbreviated table of t-factors is given
below.

For the set of data above; Mean = 109.1 , mean = 1.4 , df = 9:

50% = 1.4 x 0.703 = 1.0 , 90% = 1.4 x 1.83 = 2.6 , 95% = 1.4 x 2.26 = 3.1 .
These quantities are stated as "the uncertainty is 1 at the 50% level of
confidence" or "the mean value is 109 3 at the 95% level of confidence". This is
interpreted to mean that if you repeated the set of measurements a large number
of times, half of those means would fall in the range 108 - 110, and 95% of them
would fall in the range 106 - 112.

COMBINING UNCERTAINTIES IN CALCULATIONS - PROPAGATION OF

UNCERTAINTY

Scientific measurements are often combined to calculate other quantities that

may be used in subsequent calculations. Each of these quantities will have an
uncertainty, and the calculated value must be assigned an uncertainty. Suppose
quantities W, X, and Y are measured with uncertainties W, X, and Y. These will
be combined in some equation to calculate some other quantity Z:
Z = Z(W,X,Y) .
There are rigorous rules for combining the uncertainties to calculate the
uncertainty in Z (Z). Fortunately, most of the situations that you will encounter
may be reduced to two simple relationships.
For Multiplication and Division: Z = WX/Y
(Z/Z)2 = (W/W)2 +(X/X)2 + (Y/Y)2
For Addition and Subtraction: Z = W - X + Y
Z2 = W2 + X2 +Y2
Those rules also cover the following cases, but we will include them here for
convenience:
If there are powers involved in the equation using multiplication and/or division:
Z = W2X3/Y1/2 ; (Z/Z)2 = 4(W/W)2 + 9(X/X)2 + (1/4)(Y/Y)2 .
If there is multiplication by scalars in the equation using addition and/or
subtraction:
Z = 2W - 3X + Y/2 ; Z2 = 4W2 + 9X2 + (1/4)Y2 .
In applying these rules, it is important to have the uncertainties of all of the
independent variables (W, X, and Y) at the same level of confidence. If the
uncertainties are at the 50% level, the uncertainty in Z will be at the 50% level.