Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Daewoo Securities Co., LTD: Korea
Daewoo Securities Co., LTD: Korea
Daewoo Securities Co., LTD: Korea
, LTD
Company Update
KT&G
Korea
27 January 2004
We maintain our Overweight rating on KT&G while raising our 6-month price
target to W30,500 from W27,000, applying a 20% premium to the 2004E sector
P/E. The premium valuation is due to (1) high ROE and operating margins above
the sector average, (2) dividend yield of 7%, and (3) its shareholder friendly policy
with the retirement of treasury stocks stemming from continued commitment to
management innovation.
Helped by a 23.9% yoy growth in sales in 4Q03, sales for all of 2003 rose by
20.6%. Operating profit grew by 35.1% in 2003E in particular on the back of a
55.4% rise in 4Q03, much greater than consensus estimates. New high-end product
launch and the resulting higher ASP (+15% yoy) raised domestic shipment by 2%
in unit terms. In addition, rising exports and cheaper costs thanks to procurement
of imported raw materials expanded margins.
We have revised up our revenue estimates for 2004E and 2005E by 1.6% and 2.8%,
respectively. Along with new product launch, steady demand in the absence of tax
increases in 2004 and a gradual W500 tax increase per pack in 2005 are the main
reasons for the upward revision. Margin expansion will continue, thanks to
procurement of cheaper imports versus expensive local materials, higher ASP, and
equity income from subs. We expect pretax profit to rise by 17.4% and 4.9% in
2004E and 2005E.
Overweight
Maintained
Ticker: 033780.KS
Share price (26/01/04): W24,000
Target price (6mos): W30,500
52-Wk Hi/Lo: W24,000/16,100
Market cap: US$3,603.1mn
W4,282.6bn
Shares issued: 178.4mn shr
Foreign ownership: 39.94%
Major shareholders:
Forecasts/Valuation
IBK (10.75%)
FY
Price performance (%)
1M
6M
NP
EPS
P/E
P/BV
EV/ EBITDA
ROE
(W bn)
(W bn)
(W)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(%)
12M
12/01
1,701.4
333.8
1,748
11.1
1.4
7.2
12.4
12/02
1,806.9
347.4
1,846
8.9
1.5
6.6
15.1
12/03E
2,178.9
466.0
2,568
8.1
1.8
5.5
22.0
12/04E
2,383.2
546.8
3,014
8.0
1.8
6.0
22.5
12/05E
2,366.0
573.8
3,162
7.6
1.5
5.5
20.5
Absolute
9.1
19.4
44.6
Relative
-1.0
-3.1
1.4
KOSPI
Share price
(2/1/2003=100)
200
Sales
150
100
50
0
1/03
4/03
7/03
10/03 1/04
Despite the overall slowdown in the South Korean economy, KT&Gs business results
in 2003 were impressive. Helped by a 23.9% yoy growth in sales in 4Q03, sales in 2003
rose by 20.6% yoy. More encouraging was operating profit growth of 35.1% in 2003E,
in particular a 55.4% rise in 4Q03, which was much greater than consensus estimates.
Effective defensive strategy in the domestic market against imports combined with new
high-end product launches and resulting higher ASP (+15% yoy) raised domestic
shipment by 2% in unit terms. In addition, rising exports and cheaper costs thanks to
procurement of imported raw materials expanded margins.
Please carefully read important notices in the last pages of this report.
KT&G
27 January 2004
(W bn)
3Q02
4Q02
2002
3Q03
4Q03
2003
3Q
4Q
2003E
Sales
461.3
465.0
1,806.9
576.8
576.3
2,178.9
25.0
23.9
20.6
Operating profit
136.2
115.9
527.1
173.5
180.2
712.0
27.4
55.4
35.1
Pretax profit
121.0
104.1
493.6
154.1
108.2
640.6
27.4
3.9
29.8
Net profit
84.1
75.9
347.4
108.4
92.9
466.0
28.9
22.4
34.1
EPS (W)
1,854
1,673
1915
2,390
2,047
2,568
28.9
22.4
34.1
Previous
Revised
Change (%)
2004E
2005E
2004E
2005E
2004E
2005E
2004E
2005E
2,346.7
2,300.4
2,383.2
2,366.0
1.6
2.8
9.4
-0.7
Operating profit
724.4
696.5
755.4
762.4
4.3
9.5
6.1
0.9
Pretax profit
720.7
692.9
751.8
788.8
4.3
13.8
17.4
4.9
Net profit
507.3
487.7
546.8
573.8
7.8
17.6
17.4
4.9
EPS (W)
2,796
2,688
3,014
3,162
7.8
17.6
17.4
4.9
A critical factor that will materially affect the share price is increases in tax and sale
price. Although a tax hike has a high level of uncertainty, it is most probable sometime
in early 2005. Currently, a health tax of W150 per pack is levied but there could be an
additional W1,000 tax which will inevitably raise the retail price of a cigarette pack by
W1,000. This is the worst scenario and we expect a 10% pa decrease in unit demand if
this takes place. However, there are wide differences of opinions among interest parties
and thus, we do not expect an immediate tax increase.
A W300-W500 rise in tax and sale price will not have lasting impact on demand. After
a year decline as a result of the price increase, demand tends to recover to a normal level.
Under this scenario, we think the impact on share price is negligible.
KT&G
27 January 2004
January 1994
July 1996
December 1996
May 1997
January 1999
VAT of 10%
January 2001
July 2001
February 2002
VAT
Selling
price
Retailers
margin
Retail price
Net
Increase
708
929
1,637
164
1,800
200
2,000
W200 rise
708
1,129
1,837
184
2,020
224
2,244
244
W300 rise
708
1,229
1,937
194
2,130
237
2,367
367
W500 rise
708
1,429
2,137
214
2,350
261
2,611
611
W1,000 rise
708
1,929
2,637
264
2,900
322
3,222
1,222
Note: 1) Net sale price is sum of manufacturing costs, SGAE, and profit margins
2) Assume no other factor change other than tax factor
Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities
One of the challenges facing KT&G is its declining domestic market share. KT&Gs
market share skidded to 77% in 2003 from 81% in mid-2002. The Korean consumers
have become more accommodative about imported cigarettes as the price gap has
narrowed. However, more aggressive product launches and marketing by KT&G will
likely help the firm maintain its share at 76% in 2004E and 2005E.
Figure 5. Sales Volume of Total Domestic Tobacco Market & KT&G
(%)
15
Total domestic sales volume
10
5
0
-5
-10
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04E 05E
KT&G
27 January 2004
(%)
30
100
Imported brands (R)
95
25
90
20
85
15
80
KT&G (L)
10
5
75
70
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04E 05E
Valuation
We maintain our Overweight rating on KT&G while raising our 6-month price target to
W30,500 from W27,000. The newly set price target is at a 20% premium to the sector
P/E for 2004E given (1) its high ROE and operating margin above the sector average,
(2) dividend yield of 7% and (3) its shareholder friendly policy with the retirement of
treasury stocks stemming from continued commitment to management innovation.
We do not think the overhang from the potential exercise of exchange-able bonds is
serious. Of the 27.7mn shares or 15.3% of shares outstanding (exchange price of
W17,820 vs average share price of W22,000 in 4Q03) for the domestically issued
exchange bond, 74.1% were changed into equity. Majority of these shares are taken care
of through stock repurchase by KT&G and foreign institutional buying. There is another
15.2mn shares or 8.5% of outstanding shares to be exchanged from overseas issued
exchange bonds at around W25,000 per share. We have not seen any exercise of the
overseas EB yet.
Figure 7. KT&Gs EB
Issuance
Issuance size
Bond exercised
Issuer
Investor
Conversion price (W)
Oversea
Domestic
Oct 2001
June 2002
0%
KT&G
KT&G
Foreign investors
Domestic institutions
20,886
17,820
Premium
18%
10%
Maturity
Oct 2006
June 2005.
4.57%
5.70%
Yield to maturity
Source: Daewoo Securities
KT&G
27 January 2004
Receivables
2003E
2004E
2005E
1,853.7
2,014.0
2,112.5
2,343.5
54.9
297.3
160.1
591.4
6.7
36.7
56.7
76.7
117.6
143.6
143.2
141.9
(W bn)
2002
2003E
2004E
2005E
1,806.9
2,178.9
2,383.2
2,366.0
Gross Profit
902.0
1,188.8
1,254.3
1,272.3
OP. Profit
Sales
527.1
712.0
755.4
762.4
33.5
71.4
3.7
-26.4
24.4
27.5
27.2
27.1
0.7
27.0
21.5
21.5
493.6
640.6
751.8
788.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventories
1,435.5
1,277.1
1,443.2
1,224.2
Fixed Assets
2,062.4
2,208.9
2,355.1
2,511.3
922.8
992.8
1,112.8
1,242.8
Rec. Profit
1,137.7
1,214.9
1,241.1
1,267.3
Net Extraordinaries
Investment Asset
Tangible Assets
Total Assets
3,916.2
4,222.9
4,467.7
4,854.8
Current Liabilities
1,060.1
1,037.6
853.3
784.6
46.8
47.6
63.3
44.6
Payables
ST Bor. & Curr. Port. of LTD
Long-term Liabilities
Bonds & LT Borrowings
Total Liabilities
Paid-in Capital
Surplus
Total Shareholders' Equity
290.0
290.0
290.0
290.0
871.4
938.4
1,006.1
1,073.8
819.9
819.9
819.9
819.9
1,931.5
1,976.0
1,859.4
1,858.4
Pretax Profit
493.6
640.6
751.8
788.8
Net Profit
347.4
466.0
546.8
573.8
212.4
432.3
99.5
668.0
EBITDA
606.8
812.0
855.4
862.4
33.6
37.3
35.9
36.4
EBITDA Margin(%)
Gross Profit to Sales(%)
49.9
54.6
52.6
53.8
29.2
32.7
31.7
32.2
955.0
955.0
955.0
955.0
27.3
29.4
31.5
33.3
2,126.0
2,388.2
2,749.6
3,137.8
19.2
21.4
22.9
24.3
1,984.7
2,246.9
2,608.3
2,996.5
VALUATION
(W bn)
2002
2003E
2004E
2005E
(W, %, x)
2002
2003E
2004E
2005E
451.4
608.3
224.5
793.0
EPS (W)
1,846
2,568
3,014
3,162
Net Profit
347.4
466.0
546.8
573.8
SPS (W)
9,599
12,009
13,135
13,040
Depreciation
79.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
BVPS (W)
10,927
11,758
13,649
15,682
Amortization
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.9
8.1
8.0
7.6
-83.4
133.1
-150.0
201.5
P/S (x)
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
Others
107.7
-90.8
-272.3
-82.3
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.5
P/E (x)
-203.0
-162.2
-176.2
-176.2
Dividend Ratio(%)
28(C)
32(C)
32(C)
32(C)
-239.0
-176.0
-125.0
-125.0
Dividend Yield(%)
8.5
7.7
6.7
6.7
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.6
5.5
6.0
5.5
-153.8
-20.0
-70.0
-70.0
16.5
14.2
15.1
15.2
97.3
87.9
71.3
62.0
39.3
50.9
46.6
46.9
176.0
20.0
5.0
5.0
-229.3
-203.7
-185.5
-185.5
Borrowings
783.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROE(%)
15.1
22.0
22.5
20.5
Right Issues
16.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
ROIC(%)
18.5
24.0
23.8
23.1
Dividend
-212.0
-203.7
-185.5
-185.5
Others
-816.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.2
242.4
-137.2
431.3
Chg. in Cash
IMPORTANT
27 January 2004 NOTICES
KT&G
30,000
24 Jul. 2003, Overw eight
Target price (6M): W25,100
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1/03
3/03
5/03
7/03
9/03
11/03
1/04
Rating Allocation
% of companies under coverage
Overweight
47.76%
4.36%
Equal-weight
52.24%
12.76%
Underweight
0.00%
0.00%
As of 20 January 2004
Source: Equity Research for International Investors, Daewoo Securities
Important notices to continue to next page
Uz-Daewoo Bank
1 Pushkin Street, Tashkent, 700000, Uzbekistan
Tel : 998-71-1320640 Fax : 998-71-1206970
IMPORTANT
27 January 2004 NOTICES
Analyst of the subject company or member of the analyst's household does not have any financial interest in the securities of the subject company and
the nature of the financial interest (including without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position)
This report is a translation of the KT&G report written by Oon M. Bak, analyst for research division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd publicly released on 26
January 2004.
As of 27 January 2004, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the
subject companys shares outstanding.
Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd may have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company, or received compensation for investment
banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
This report has been provided by ERII (Equity Research for International Investors) of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Daewoo Securities ERII separately runs its
research independent of the research division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. The stock ratings, target prices, estimates, and overall viewpoints of ERII may have
been different from those of research division of Daewoo Securities. Thus, this report has to be viewed as Daewoo Securities ERII's independent opinion and should
not be interpreted by any means as an official viewpoint of research division of Daewoo Securities. Daewoo Securities ERII was established at Daewoo Securities to
service international institutional investors although the reports are being publicly released. Investors can have access to Daewoo Securities ERII's research through
Firstcall, Daewoo research direct(www.bestez.com), Multex and Bloomberg(DWIR).
Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. is a full-service, integrated investment banking, and brokerage firm. We are a leading underwriter of securities and leading participant in
virtually all trading markets. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by the research
division of Daewoo Securities and Daewoo Securities ERII. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business
selection process. Investors should assume that Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. are seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the subject
companies covered by this report and that the research analysts who involved in preparing this report may participate in the solicitation of such business. Our
research analysts compensation is determined based upon the activities and services intended to benefit the investors of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Like all
employee of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other
business units, the intuitional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client division.
This document was prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (Daewoo). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to
be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as
to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability
whatsoever for any loss, arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein
are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to
purchase or sale any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any
purpose.
Daewoo and/or other affiliate companies, their directors, representative, or employees may have a long or short position in any of the securities or other financial
instruments mentioned in this document or of issuers described herein at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of
any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. This document is for
distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorized persons or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services Act 1986 or any
order made thereunder.
Daewoo has prepared this document. Daewoos U.S. affiliate, Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., is distributing this document in the U.S.. This document may be
distributed in the U.S. solely to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any U.S. recipient of this
document who wishes to effect transactions in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc.
Summarized version of this report available in Daewoo Securities, Korea Daily Focus on 28 January 2004.
Analyst Stock Ratings of ERII (Equity Research for International Investors), Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd
Risk Rating
Target Return
Overweight
> +15%
Equal-weight
-15% - +15%
Underweight
< -15%
y Rank is a guide to the expected total return over the next 6-12 months unless separately specified otherwise.
y The target return is relative to the market index, which is assumed to be constant at current level.
y Although it is not part of the official ratings at ERII, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
Analyst Industry Ratings of ERII, Daewoo Securities
Positive
Neutral
Negative