Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Market Commentary
Market Commentary
MARKET COMMENTARY
Markets at a Glance
HSX
Close
HNX
604.01
91.13
(0.04%)
+1.41%
126,581,590
80,476,769
2,054
1,174
641.89
185.92
130
125
Losers
80
76
Unchanged
74
68
HSX
HNX
78.2(3.8%)*
20.5(1.7%)*
97.9(4.8%)*
18.6(1.6%)*
(19.7)
1.9
Foreign Activity
Net Buying/Selling
* % Total Value
Table of Contents:
Market Commentary
Page 1-2
Technical Analysis
Page 3
HSX Indices
Page 4
Economic News
Page 5
Recommendation
Page 6
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
ETF Trading
Page 10
International Markets
Page 11
Neighboring Markets
Page 12
Contact Information
Page 13
Disclaimer
Page 14
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 1
SBV issues new Circular to tighten bank operation and deal with
cross-ownership in the banking system.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently issued the Circular 30/2014/TT-NHNN
(Circular 30) which comes into effect on January 1, 2015. The circular
stipulates rules on trustee companies and entrustment receiving profession of
the foreign credit institutions and bank branches.
This Circular replaces Circular 04/2012/TT-NHNN. It overcomes the limitation of
Circular 04 and simultaneously prevents cross-ownership in banking systems.
The new circular introduces the concept of entrustment profession and
entrustment receiving profession of foreign credit institutions and bank
branches. Particularly, credit institutions and bank branches are granted the
right to entrust and receive entrustment on the following activities: lending,
financial leasing, capital contribution, purchasing shares, investment in
production or business projects, purchasing corporate bonds. Additionally, this
circular also provides guided some specific cases when foreign credit
institutions, bank branches and financial leasing companies could entrust and
receive entrustment legally.
Furthermore, Circular 30 also stipulates the strict regulation in granting credit
when the credit institutions aim to process entrustment and receive
entrustment. An expert in banking systems commented that some banks
avoided the prevailing regulation to carry out the activities of entrustment and
receiving entrustment with the aim of controlling the financial market. Hence,
Circular 30 is a step in the restructuring of the banking industry that should
improve Vietnams transparency in the eyes of foreign investors.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
HSX Daily Chart (3 Month)
VN-Index
Closed above the MA100: The VN-Index moved
sideways in a narrow band today before closing near
the lower band. The technical chart showed a small
black cande with high volume, reflecting the
accumulation in volume of HSXs stocks. The index
was still held below the resistance level of 608 - 610,
formed by the MA50 but in a positive sign, it closed
today above the MA100, which was at 603.
Outlook: The VN-Index is likely to rise tomorrow in an
attempt to break through the threshold of 608 - 610.
HNX-Index
Broke through the Bollinger Bands: The HNXIndex rose sharply today, approaching its previous
peak at 91.9. The technical chart showed a long white
candle with high volume, which broke through the
upper band of the Bollinger Bands. It was a positive
signal, which may initiate a new uptrend for the HNXIndex.
Outlook: The HNX-Index is likely to double check the
upper Bollinger band at 90.8 91.0 before closing with
a gain.
VN30 - Index
Accumulated below the MA100: The VN30
dropped slightly today and formed a small spinning
top on its technical chart. The index was supported by
the MA5 at 640 - 641 but still held below the resistance
level of the MA100, which was at 644. This was the
third consecutive session that the VN30 accumulated
in volume below this threshold and we believe that it
will generate a break-out signal soon.
Outlook:
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 3
HSX INDICES
VNSmall
732.5
1.40%
VNMidcap
760
700
740
680
720
660
700
668.92
0.40%
640
680
620
660
600
640
580
620
560
600
580
540
560
520
540
08/14
VN100
09/14
584.92
10/14
11/14
500
08/14
0.05%
VNAllshare
690
690
670
670
650
650
630
630
610
610
590
590
570
570
550
550
530
530
510
510
490
08/14
09/14
10/14
11/14
490
08/14
09/14
593.62
09/14
10/14
11/14
0.15%
10/14
11/14
Source: HSX
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 4
DOMESTIC NEWS
ECONOMIC NEWS
Vietnams
consumer
confidence rebounds
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently posted the healthiest trend in
operation of credit institutions over the past few months with remarkable
improvements in key indicators. In particular, as of September 30, total assets
of the whole system peaked at VND6,160 trillion (USD292 billion), up 6.12%
and up VND95,464 billion (USD4.5 billion) from August. Total assets acquired
by state-owned commercial banks and joint stock commercial banks swelled
by 8.53% and 5.66%, respectively, as compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the same
figures for joint venture and foreign banks, and financial leasing companies
fell by 1% and 3.7%, respectively. The amount of banks contributed capital
totaled VND496.3 trillion (USD23.5 billion) in the first nine months, up 3.4%.
Further, the capital adequacy ratio of credit institutions far exceeded SBVs
requirements, standing at 13.43% as of September.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
New bank rules proposed to
end too big to fail
After the financial crisis in 2007 - 2009, governments had to spend billions of
dollars of taxpayer money to rescue banks that ran into trouble and could
have threatened the global financial system if allowed to go under. Since then,
regulators from the Group of 20 economies have been trying to find ways to
prevent this from happening again. The plans proposed by the Financial
Stability Board envisage that global banks, such as Goldman Sachs (GS.N)
and HSBC (HSBA.L), should have a buffer of bonds or equity equivalent to at
least 16% to 20% of their risk-weighted assets, such as loans, from January
2019. The new rule will apply to 30 banks deemed to be globally "systemically
important", though initially three from China on that list of 30 would be
exempt.
Brent crude prices slid to another four-year low on expectations that the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would defer action
to rein in ample global oil supplies. Oil prices have tumbled for months, as
moderate demand growth appeared insufficient to absorb growing crude
supplies. Many market watchers expect that OPEC, which controls more than
one-third of global oil production, to maintain its collective output target at its
coming meeting on November 27. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 67 cents,
or 0.8%, to USD81.67 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe, the lowest
settlement price since October 19, 2010. Brent prices are down 29% from midJune highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International
Energy Agency and OPEC all cut their forecasts for global oil demand growth
in recent months.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 5
RECOMMENDATION
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 6
Code
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
Code
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
SRC
38,500
2,500
6.9%
4.1%
409,530
ITQ
14,300
1,300
10.0%
23.3%
422,153
BSI
10,800
700
6.9%
6.9%
PPI
14,300
900
6.7%
3.6%
684,310
KLF
14,300
1,300
10.0%
20,442,392
1,843,890
VIX
62,400
5,600
9.9%
26.8%
739,120
CMG
10,300
500
5.1%
6.2%
204,930
S99
12,600
1,100
9.6%
8.6%
1,215,077
VHG
16,600
800
5.1%
3.1%
5,429,610
PCT
7,100
600
9.2%
12.7%
1,368,264
Code
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
Code
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
PXL
4,300
(100)
-0.2%
288,900
VCS
27,900
(200)
-0.7%
-1.8%
121,400
HSG
50,500
(1,000)
-0.2%
-1.0%
133,520
SD6
15,800
(100)
-0.6%
0.6%
228,870
VHC
57,000
(1,000)
-0.2%
2.7%
920,420
API
14,900
-1.3%
390,900
SBA
11,700
(200)
-0.2%
-4.1%
183,890
PVG
12,000
-0.8%
121,300
KDC
61,500
(1,000)
-0.2%
-0.8%
473,810
CEO
17,000
1.8%
1,040,350
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
Price
Net Chg
%+/- T
%+/-T+3
Volume
FLC
12,400
200
1.6%
6.0%
17,430,220
Code
KLF
14,300
1,300
10.0%
23.3%
20,442,392
ITA
9,200
400
4.5%
5.7%
11,077,390
SCR
10,600
400
3.9%
3.9%
8,313,558
VHG
16,600
800
5.1%
3.1%
5,429,610
PVC
36,000
2,300
6.8%
7.1%
4,002,041
OGC
9,000
-2.2%
5,014,620
PVX
6,500
200
3.2%
1.6%
3,878,603
KBC
18,000
300
1.7%
1.1%
4,543,300
SHS
12,500
300
2.5%
5.9%
3,583,214
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
Code
Price
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
Code
Price
Buy Vol.
KBC
18,000
631,550
52,000
579,550
DIG
15,000
442,240
442,240
10,337
SHS
12,500
620,600
620,600
7,701
6,532
VND
14,100
378,000
20,000
358,000
5,036
MWG
101,000
62,060
670
61,390
6,200
BVS
15,300
158,300
10,000
148,300
2,266
FLC
12,400
500,000
10
499,990
6,070
PLC
33,500
56,000
56,000
1,849
VIC
48,800
113,810
17,630
96,180
4,696
SD9
15,300
36,900
36,900
560
Code
Price
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
Code
Price
Buy Vol.
Sell Vol.
Net Vol.
Net Value
GAS
106,000
2,100
218,830
(216,730)
(22,974)
PVS
41,400
330,000
(330,000)
(13,519)
PVD
92,000
13,450
226,240
(212,790)
(19,521)
PVC
36,000
500
61,000
(60,500)
(2,090)
VHC
57,000
99,390
(99,390)
(5,638)
PVE
15,700
48,000
(48,000)
(749)
NBB
20,900
131,990
(131,990)
(2,741)
NBC
12,000
34,500
(34,500)
(414)
BVH
38,800
3,060
72,370
(69,310)
(2,679)
HMH
26,900
900
10,000
(9,100)
(241)
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 7
100
Energy
Technology
90
80
% Gain /(Loss)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11/13
-10
12/13
01/14
02/14
03/14
04/14
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
Underperforming
HSX (Equal Weighted)
Consumer
Financials
110
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
100
Utilities
90
% Gain /(Loss)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11/13
-10
12/13
01/14
02/14
03/14
04/14
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
Note: We have chosen to present the sector index graphs on an equal weighting basis, whereas the 1-day and 30-day changes in the table
below are on a market-cap weighted basis. We have done this because a few large-cap companies can often dominate the performance
of a sector when measured on a market cap weighted basis, but this does not give investors an accurate picture of the investment
opportunities available there.
GICS SECTORS
Change 1D (%)
P/E
P/B
23.8%
-0.28%
-1.81%
20.9
1.5
3.5%
0.35%
-2.94%
16.4
2.1
34.2%
0.44%
0.92%
13.8
1.1
Health Care
1.5%
0.02%
4.52%
14.8
1.7
Industrials
7.3%
0.84%
1.69%
14.8
2.1
Information Technology
1.8%
-0.54%
-2.15%
16.5
2.1
Materials
6.5%
-0.04%
1.40%
12.0
1.0
21.3%
-0.80%
-1.86%
10.3
1.4
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Utilities
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 8
Energy
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Average
16.5
2.1
16.5%
FPT
10.5
2.3
23%
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Change 30D
-2.2%
Average
16.4
2.1
29.5%
17,367
-2.9%
GAS
18.0
5.7
0.3
200,870
-6.2%
-2.9%
ELC
14.3
0.9
6%
539
-0.7%
PVD
10.9
2.5
25%
27,879
-8.9%
CMG
16.9
1.1
7%
682
6.2%
PGD
12.3
1.7
14%
2,064
-4.2%
SGT
17.2
0.9
5%
355
9.1%
CNG
8.7
2.5
29%
1,023
-1.8%
TIE
3.1
0.6
19%
152
-6.5%
PGC
9.8
1.2
12%
754
-0.7%
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Financials
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Change 30D
Average
14.8
1.7
16.0%
4.5%
Average
13.8
1.1
10.6%
DHG
15.4
3.9
28%
8,498
3.7%
VCB
15.3
1.4
11%
72,755
1.1%
TRA
14.1
2.7
22%
1,875
0.0%
CTG
9.2
1.0
11%
53,617
-1.4%
0.9%
JVC
19.0
1.2
7%
2,025
4.3%
VIC
13.4
3.8
29%
70,982
0.4%
OPC
14.3
2.0
15%
791
1.7%
BVH
21.8
2.3
10%
26,402
-4.0%
DMC
9.1
1.7
19%
1,149
1.2%
STB
8.9
1.3
14%
21,822
1.6%
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Industrials
Consumers
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Average
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Change 30D
14.8
1.1
8.1%
1.7%
Average
20.9
1.5
15.2%
REE
9.2
1.4
0.2
7,624
-4.0%
VNM
18.3
5.7
33%
104,012
-5.5%
ITA
67.9
0.8
1%
6,614
3.4%
MSN
4.3
61,072
1.8%
GMD
6.8
0.8
13%
3,995
-3.6%
KDC
26.4
2.3
9%
15,692
5.1%
BMP
8.2
1.9
25%
3,024
-3.6%
VCF
14.3
4.3
34%
5,316
3.1%
PVT
15.9
1.4
8%
4,580
-0.6%
DRC
14.8
3.5
25%
4,943
-3.3%
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Change 30D
-1.9%
Average
12.0
1.0
11.9%
8.8
2.4
31%
27,710
-1.7%
Utilities
-1.8%
Materials
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)
Code
P/E
P/B
ROE
Change 30D
Average
10.3
1.4
13.3%
PPC
10.9
1.5
14%
8,081
2.8%
HPG
1.4%
VSH
12.2
1.1
8%
3,011
0.7%
DPM
9.5
1.2
12%
11,398
-2.6%
TMP
9.2
2.0
23%
1,785
7.1%
HSG
15.1
2.1
14%
4,864
5.0%
TBC
12.0
1.7
15%
1,600
6.3%
POM
0.7
-2%
1,733
-3.1%
BTP
10.0
0.9
9%
895
3.5%
DPR
5.9
0.8
13%
1,605
-8.3%
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 9
ETF TRADING
Ticker
NAV
Daily
change
NAV
Shares
Outstanding
Daily
Change in
Share
Outstanding
Daily
Change
price
Last
price
Premium/
Discount
Date of
announcements
VNM
$ 21.20
-0.24%
25,850,000
$ 21.07
-0.14%
-0.62%
Price at 11/11/2014,
NAV at 11/11/2014
FTSE Vietnam
$29.54
-0.22%
14,566,400
$ 29.53
0.00%
-0.03%
Price at 11/11/2014,
NAV at 11/11/2014
29
28
27
14
26
25
24
13
23
22
21
12
20
19
18
17
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
11
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
2%
4%
2%
3%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-3%
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
-5%
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 10
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Dow Jones
17,614.90
0.01%
Nasdaq
18,000
4,660.56
0.19%
4,760
17,500
4,590
17,000
4,420
16,500
4,250
16,000
4,080
15,500
15,000
08/14
09/14
10/14
FTSE
6,598.94
-0.43%
11/14
7,000
3,910
08/14
09/14
10/14
DAX
9,271.99
-1.04%
09/14
10/14
11/14
10,000
6,800
9,500
6,600
9,000
6,400
8,500
6,200
8,000
6,000
5,800
08/14
NIKKEI 225
09/14
17,197.05
10/14
11/14
0.43%
7,500
08/14
SHANGHAI
17,600
2,600
16,800
2,500
16,000
2,400
15,200
2,300
14,400
2,200
13,600
2,100
12,800
08/14
09/14
10/14
11/14
2,000
08/14
2,494.48
09/14
11/14
1.00%
10/14
11/14
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 11
NEIGHBORING MARKETS
Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Jakarta Stock Exchange
148
138
128
118
108
98
88
78
11/13
01/14
03/14
05/14
Market
07/14
Bangkok
Stock
Exchange
09/14
Jakarta
Stock
Exchange
11/14
Philippines
Stock
Exchange
Ho Chi
Minh Stock
Exchange
24
P/E
18.5
19.5
20.9
14.8
20
P/B
2.2
2.5
2.9
2.0
ROE
12.7
12.7
14.5
13.7
ROA
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.6
436.4
386.8
182.0
51.0
(446.2)
4,042.6
786.4
178.2
133.9
74.0
14.3
2.6
2.9
5.8
7.2
5.4
16
12
Market Cap.
(USDbn)
Foreign Net Inflow
- YTD (USDmn)
Foreign Net Inflow
- 5D (USDmn)
GDP Growth
(%yoy)
8
4
0
P/E
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P/B
ROE
ROA
Page | 12
CONTACT INFORMATION
For further information regarding this report, please contact the following members of the VPBS
research department:
Barry David Weisblatt
Head of Research
barryw@vpbs.com.vn
Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh
Director Macro & Financials
linhntt@vpbs.com.vn
Vu Minh Duc
Director - Technical Analysis
ducvm@vpbs.com.vn
Nguyen Ba Hoan
Senior Analyst
hoannb@vpbs.com.vn
For any questions regarding your account, please contact the following:
Marc Djandji, CFA
Head of Institutional Sales & Brokerage
& Foreign Individuals
marcdjandji@vpbs.com.vn
+848 3823 8608 Ext: 158
Ly Dac Dung
Director of Retail Sales & Brokerage
dungld@vpbs.com.vn
+ 844 3974 3655 Ext: 335
Vo Van Phuong
Vice President of Retail Sales &
Brokerage
phuongvv@vpbs.com.vn
+848 6296 4210 Ext: 130
Domalux
Vice President of Retail Sales &
Brokerage
domalux@vpbs.com.vn
+848 6296 4210 Ext: 128
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 13
Disclaimer
This research report is prepared and issued by VPBank Securities Co. Ltd. (VPBS). This report is not
directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or
use would be contrary to law or regulation. This document is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other
person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe restrictions.
Each research analyst involved in the preparation of a research report is required to certify that the views and
recommendations expressed therein accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the
securities or issuers that are the subject matter of this research report, and no part of his/her compensation
was, is and will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed by the
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