Livestock Comments

Wednesday, December 03, 2014

Outside Markets:
U.S. equity markets were firmer today with data boosting economic confidence and industrial/commodity
shares rallying. The Dow is up 33 points at 17,912 and the S&P is up 9 points at 2,075.
The Feds Beige Book that was released today stated employment gains were widespread, adding economic
optimism and strengthening the USD. The U.S Labor Department will issue their highly anticipated monthly
jobs data on Friday.
The U.S. dollar continues to surge to its highest levels since 2009 making exports out of the U.S. a difficult
proposition.
Crude oil prices in the Bakken region of North Dakota are now below $50 a barrel with logistical issues suppressing price.
Cattle
March live cattle futures continued their trend from Tuesday and dropped another $2.15 to $166.90, as cash
cattle trade took place at $168 in the north (3-4 lower than last week).
Choice boxed beef continues to push toward $260, but struggles to get there. On the day choice was up 5 cents
at $256.41 with a good load count at 204.
Packer margins remain deep in the red, losing on average $120.70 per head.
Supply fundamentals continue to look tight well into 2015.
With consumer confidence at a 7-year high, lower energy costs increasing disposable income, and restaurant
demand high, analysts are optimistic that strong beef demand will continue despite higher prices.
The National Restaurant Association Performance Index jumped to 102.8 in October, up 1.8% from September.
Fund traders continue to hold a large net long position in live cattle, which leaves futures vulnerable to downside pressure. As of the most recent commitment of traders report funds were long 121,187 contracts.
Hogs:
February lean hog futures fell $2.30 to $86.70 in sympathy with live cattle weakness.
Fund traders continue to hold a large net long position in lean hogs, creating downside vulnerability. As of the
most recent commitment of traders report funds were long 71,826 contracts.
The most recent CME lean hog index sits at 88.45. This compares to 88.79 the prior session and approximately
80 last year.
Packer margins remain in the black with the most recent estimate at $5.29 per head.
Pork cutout values continue to move lower, and until we can see a higher move with good volume traders will
continue to search for the bottom.
Sow slaughter in the first 10 months of 2014 was 2.311 million head, down 5.9% from the compared to the
prior year and producers attempt to grow the herd.

This information is provided by a research analyst and should not be construed as a recommendation to
buy or sell any commodity contract. The information contained in this presentation is taken from
sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and
is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures
and options. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

Close
50-Day MA
100 Day MA
200 Day MA
Trend

Corn
Front Month Second Month
$
3.688 $
3.820
$
3.573 $
3.703
$
3.559 $
3.671
$
4.138 $
4.198
UP
UP

Soybeans
Front Month Second Month
$
9.983 $
10.053
$
9.884 $
9.941
$
10.625 $
10.232
$
12.530 $
12.159
DOWN
DOWN

Close
50-Day MA
100 Day MA
200 Day MA
Trend

Live Cattle
Front Month Second Month
$
166.68 $
167.00
$
166.47 $
167.39
$
160.61 $
161.01
$
152.41 $
150.87
UP
UP

Feeder Cattle
Second Month
$
232.15
$
234.73
$
227.00
$
208.81
UP

Front Month
$
235.38
$
237.67
$
229.09
$
208.68
UP

Beef
Choice
Select
Packer Margin
Price
$ 256.36 $
243.66 $
(120.70)
Last Week
$ 257.13 $
244.00 $
(104.50)
All Time High $ 263.66 $
260.83 $
(73.20)
Loads
53.34
52.44
(YTD High)

Front Month
$
88.15
$
95.23
$ 102.65
$ 111.29
DOWN

Lean Hogs
Second Month
$
86.68
$
90.66
$
94.82
$
108.97
DOWN

Cash Index
$ 88.45
$ 98.46
$ 106.44
$ 111.07
DOWN

Soymeal
Front Month Second Month
$
3.811 $
3.538
$
3.579 $
3.427
$
3.772 $
3.488
$
4.248 $
4.020
DOWN
DOWN

Cash Index
$ 243.94
$ 239.02
$ 230.36
$ 208.36
UP

Estimated Slaughter
111000
Today
115000
Last Week

Choice Price
$280.00
$260.00
$240.00
$220.00
$200.00
$180.00
$160.00
$140.00

Choice Price

Hogs
Cutout
National
E. Cornbeld W. Cornbelt
IA/MN
Packer Margin
Price
216.32
85.43
86.27
85.78
#N/A
4.5
Last Week
216.32
85.92
84.56
86.53
#N/A
10
All Time High
222.04
131.17
131.19
133.02
133.02
31.3
Estimated Hog Slaughter
428000
(YTD High)

This information is provided by a research analyst and should not be construed as a recommendation to
buy or sell any commodity contract. The information contained in this presentation is taken from
sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and
is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures
and options. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.