SECTOR UPDATE

Auto Monthly Update

November,
2014
November, 2011

Auto Monthly Update

November sales provides another twinkle of hope
After witnessing lower than expected volumes in the festive season, major OEMs
have reported healthy growth in volumes in November. On a YoY basis, the highest
came in from M&HCVs, followed by passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, with tractors
being the weakest. On an absolute basis, going by the past five-to-six months trend,
volumes were broadly disappointing for most.
Sales of top companies including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Honda and Tata Motors
rose in November, while Mahindra & Mahindras (M&M) volumes continued to fall.
Total monthly sales in November jumped 10.43% over the corresponding month in
2013. In two wheeler segment, Hero Moto Corp and TVS Motors reported increase in
total volumes on YoY basis, while Bajaj Auto reported decline in volumes..

SECTOR UPDATE

Outlook
Given a slew of new models slated to hit showrooms in addition to falling fuel prices,
we expect consumer sentiments to improve driving higher footfalls at dealerships. It is
believed that the perceived improvement in consumer sentiment is yet to translate
into better sales for the automotive industry. However, the industry is confident of the
long-term growth potential of the market and continues to be cautiously optimistic in
the near-term.
Additionally, discounts are at their peak and sales of diesel vehicles are tapering off
as the price differential between the two fuels is dropping sharply. Going by the
market scenario, industry expect the challenging times to continue till some major
announcements take place in the upcoming budget to improve customer sentiments.

th

Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Total Motor Vehicles Sales

Total Car Sales

Motor Vehicles sales growth YOY

Sep-14

Car sales growth YOY

Source: IAS, Ventura Research Estimates

Two wheeler & motorcycle sales (Quarterly)

Two wheeler & motorcycles sales growth (YOY)

60

25%

50

20%
15%

40

10%
30

5%

20

Total Two Wheeler Sales

Total Motor Cycles Sales

Motorcycles growth YOY

Source: IAS, Ventura Research Estimates

Two wheeler growth YOY

Source: IAS, Ventura Research Estimates

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

-10%

Dec-12

-5%

Mar-12

0%

10

Sep-12

Unit in Lakhs

SECTOR UPDATE

Source: IAS, Ventura Research Estimates

Jun-14

Dec-11

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-12

Jun-12

Mar-12

Dec-11

Sep-11

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

10

Dec-12

Unit in Lakhs

12

Sep-12

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

14

Jun-12

Motor vehicles and car sales growth (YoY)

Mar-12

Motor vehicles and car sales Quarterly

Auto Monthly Update

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

|CMP: `3,397 | M.Cap: `1,02,616 crore|

Robust sales number

SECTOR UPDATE

After witnessing a poor performance during the festive season owing to the fewer
working days, Maruti Suzuki India reported a growth of 20% to 110,147 cars in the
month of November 2014. Domestic sales during the month stood at 100,024 units,
up 17% from 85,510 units in the same period previous year. Sales of mini & compact
passenger cars, including Alto, A-Star, and WagonR were up 33.7% at 75,085 units
as against 56,162 units in the same month previous year.
Exports for the month zoomed by 52.7%, as the company shipped-out 10,123 units
from 6,630 units sold abroad in the comparable period last year. The premium sedanKizashi on the other hand, failed to attract any buyers in the country. Interestingly,
many customers have opted for Omni and Eeco, as the two vans outperformed in the
month with 12,203 units in November, resulting in 52.1% of growth.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd

Nov-14

Nov-13 YOY %

Oct-14

MOM %

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

YOY %

A:Mini & Compact

75,085

56,162

33.7

72,836

3.1

1,225,947

1,118,822

9.6

0.0

189

-99.5

12,203

8,021

52.1

10,453

16.7

187,135

175,291

6.8

7,221

15,486

-53.4

7,753

-6.9

290,084

306,643

-5.4

94,509

79,670

18.6

91,042

3.8

1,703,167

1,600,945

6.4

5,515

5,840

-5.6

6,027

-8.5

105,030

118,672

-11.5

100,024

85,510

17.0

97,069

3.0

1,808,197

1,719,617

5.2

10,123

6,630

52.7

6,904

46.6

180,512

191,155

-5.6

110,147

92,140

19.5

103,973

5.9

1,988,709

1,910,772

4.1

A:Executive
C:Vans
A:Super Compact & Mid size
Total Passenger Cars
B:UV
Domestic sales
Exports sales
Total sales

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Total Vehicle Sales and its growth in % YoY

zzz

1.2

0.9
0.6

0.3

Total vehicle sales

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

Total volumes grew by 19.5% YoY

basis

Vehicle sales growth YOY

Source: MSIL, Ventura Research Estimates

Domestic A: Mini & Compact Vehicle

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

100%
80%
60%
40%

Mini and Compact vehicle

grew by 33.7% YoY basis

20%
0%
-20%

Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Units in lakhs

SECTOR UPDATE

0.0

Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Units in lakhs

1.5

Sales

Sales growth YOY

Source: MSIL, Ventura Research Estimates

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Mahindra & Mahindra

|CMP: `1,290 | M.Cap: `80,151 crore|

Overall performance weak

SECTOR UPDATE

In the month of November, Mahindra and Mahindra has reported a 20.4% percent
decline in sales with about 49,625 units as against 62,374 units that were sold in the
same month last year led by the overall sentiment and high interest rates. Sales of
passenger vehicles including Scorpio, XUV 500, Xylo, Bolero and Verito stood at
13,765 units, compared to 16,771 units in November 2013, down 18%. Exports were
down 27 per cent to 2,192 units from 2,993 units in the same period a year earlier.
The company is hopeful that reducing international crude prices and the subsequent
lowering of fuel prices should help in the revival of demand in the coming months.
The delayed rains and sowing have led to a sluggish growth in the tractor industry,
thereby leading to M&Ms Farm Equipment Sector de-growth of 33.7% in total sales.
Domestic sales stood at 14,207 units, as against 22,343 units during November 2013.
Unseasonal rains and hail during March has impacted sentiment leading to lower
tractor sales. However, the management is confident of its newly launched Arjun
Novo tractor, which has been very well received in the market and hope that this will
help drive sales in a challenging environment.
M&M

Nov-14

Nov-13 YOY %

Oct-14

MOM %

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

YOY %

UV's

26,513

29,957

-11.5

34,066

-22.2

649,152

717,325

-9.5

3,363

582

443

27,095

Verito - MRPL
LCV's - Inclusive of MNAL
Total 4 wheelers
3 wheelers
Domestic Sales
Exports - M&M
Exports - Logan - MRPL

31.4

530

9.8

30,400

-10.9

34,596

5,005

5,861

-14.6

32,100

36,261

2,192

2,994

13,621

17,193

-20.8

-21.7

662,773

737,881

-10.2

5,678

-11.9

101,776

106,779

-4.7

-11.5

40,274

-20.3

764,549

844,660

-9.5

-26.8

2,502

-12.4

47,958

51,052

-6.1

Export Sales

2,192

2,994

-26.8

2,502

-12.4

47,958

51,052

-6.1

Total Sales (A)

34,292

39,255

-12.6

42,776

-19.8

812,507

895,712

-9.3

14,207

22,343

-36.4

30,800

-53.9

431,450

399,917

7.9

1,126

776

45.1

1,107

1.7

18,951

19,011

-0.3

Total Sales (B)

15,333

23,119

-33.7

31,907

-51.9

450,401

418,928

7.5

Grand Total sales (A+B)

49,625

62,374

-20.4

74,683

-33.6

1,262,908

1,314,640

-3.9

Tractors
Domestic
Exports

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Sales excluding 2 wheelers & tractors

es

0.6

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%

Units in lakhs

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

0.0

PV volumes were decreased

by 12.6%, showing revival
signs.

Growth YOY

Source: M&M, Ventura Research Estimates

Total tractor sales

0.4
Units in lakhs

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

Tractor volumes posted a

de-growth of 33.6% YoY.

Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

SECTOR UPDATE

Total sales

Tractor Sales

Tractor Growth in YOY

Source: M&M , Ventura Research Estimates

th

Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Tata Motors

|CMP: `524 | M.Cap:`1,41,170 crore|

Back on Road!

SECTOR UPDATE

After the gap of almost two years, Tata Motors reported a growth of 2% in November,
2014 to 41,720 vehicles. Domestic sales of Tata commercial and passenger vehicles
remained flat at 37,427 units as compared to year-ago period. Sales of passenger
vehicles in the domestic market in November stood at 12,021 units, up 16% from
10,376 units in the same month last year. In the commercial vehicles segment,
domestic sales declined by 5% to 25,406 units during the month from 26,816 units in
November last year.
Exports during the month stood at 4,293 units as against 3,671 units in the year-ago
month, up 17%. On the cumulative basis, sales in the LCV business declined 32.2%
to 400,105 vehicles while medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) sales
declined 13.8% to 186,419 vehicles. Export number also declined by 2% to 82,576
units over the same period.

Tata Motors
M&HCV

Nov-14

Nov-13 YOY %

Oct-14

MOM %

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

YOY %

9,452

6,823

38.5

10,352

-8.7

186,419

216,216

-13.8

15,954

19,993

-20.2

16,897

-5.6

400,105

590,404

-32.2

1,735

2,466

-29.6

1,917

-9.5

48,399

68,304

-29.1

Cars

10,286

7,910

30.0

9,594

7.2

170,282

248,092

-31.4

Domestic Sales (A)

37,427

37,192

0.6

38,760

-3.4

805,205

1,123,016

-28.3

4,293

3,671

16.9

4,059

5.8

82,576

84,249

-2.0

41,720

40,863

2.1

42,819

-2.6

887,781

1,207,265

-26.5

LCV
UV

Export Sales (B)

Total Sales (A+B)

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%

Volume witnessed a growth of

2.1%

Total vehicle sales

Vehicle sales growth YOY

Source: TML, Ventura Research Estimates

UV + Car sales and its growth in % YoY

0.2
Units in lakhs

20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%

0.1

0.0

UV + Car Sales grew by

11.9%

Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

SECTOR UPDATE

Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Units in lakhs

Total Vehicles sales and its growth in % YoY

UV+Cars

UV+Cars sales growth YOY

Source: TML, Ventura Research Estimates

th

Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

Auto Monthly Update

Ashok Leyland

|CMP: `53 | M.Cap: `15,225 crore|

On growth track!
In the month of November, Ashok Leyland had sold 7,732 units, reporting a growth of
43.9%. The companys M&HCV sales stood at 5,204 units as compared to 2,715
units, a year ago. Decline in LCVs (Dost & Stile) continues, although pace has
moderated to ~3% decline in Nov14 to ~2,528 units. Management has indicated
improved demand outlook for 2H led by acceleration in economic activity.
Nov-14

Nov-13 YOY %

Oct-14

MOM %

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

YOY %

CV-excl SCV (Dost)

5,204

2,715

91.7

5,838

-10.9

104,515

117,316

-10.9

SCV (Dost)

2,528

2,660

-5.0

2,537

-0.4

46,276

54,313

-14.8

Total Sales

7,732

5,375

43.9

8,375

-7.7

150791

171629

-12.1

Total vehicles sales and its growth in % YoY

0.2

Units in lakhs

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

0.1

0.0

Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

SECTOR UPDATE

Ashok Leyland

Total vehicle sales

Vehicle sales growth YOY

Source: ALL, Ventura Research Estimates

th

Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

10

Auto Monthly Update

Hero MotoCorp

|CMP: `3,176 | M.Cap:` 63,434 crore|

Healthy performance

It added that new launches, including ZMR, Splendor iSmart, Splendor Pro
Classic and Passion have been driving the volume across the segment. In October,
HMCL inaugurated a manufacturing plant at Neemrana in Rajasthan. The company
has lined up a total investment of Rs 5,000 crore across the globe, including
manufacturing plants in Columbia and Bangladesh. New plants are also coming up at
Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and Hero Global Centre for research and design at
Kukas in Rajasthan.
Hero MotoCorp

Nov-14

Total Sales - Motorcycles

547,413

Nov-13 YOY %
530,530

3.2

Oct-14 MOM %
575,056

-4.8

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

10,771,964

10,207,026

YOY %
5.5

Total vehicles sales and its growth in % YoY

7.0

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%

6.0

Units in lakhs

5.0
4.0
3.0

2.0
1.0
0.0

Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

SECTOR UPDATE

For the month of November, Hero MotoCorp reported healthy performance with
reporting a growth of 3.2% in its total sales to 547,413 units. As per the management,
the November dispatch is lower than last year on account of the holidays due to
Diwali, while there were no such holidays in the November of 2011, the festive period
being in October last year.

Sales in Units

Growth Rates YOY

Source: HMCL, Ventura Research Estimates

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

11

Auto Monthly Update

Bajaj Auto

|CMP: `2,615 | M.Cap:` 75,685 crore|

Marginal de-growth
Bajaj Autos motorcycle sales for the month of November reported a marginal degrowth of 0.2% to 309,259 units as compared 309,888 units in the same month last
year. The sales for November 2014, comprised of motor cycle sales of 2,61,948 units
and commercial vehicle sales of 47,311 units. Export sales stood at 1,65,733 units
compared to 1,33,000 units in November 2013.

Bajaj Auto

Nov-14

Motorcycles

336,923

MOM %

YTDFY13

5,794,595

6,092,869

(0)

YOY %

261,948

278,000

-5.8

336,923

-22.3

5,794,595

6,092,869

-4.9

3 wheeler

47,311

31,888

48.4

49,094

-3.6

814,080

779,809

4.4

Total sales

309,259

309,888

-0.2

386,017

-19.9

6,608,675

6,872,678

-3.8

Domestic

143,526

176,888

-18.9

227,470

-36.9

3,724,747

4,260,627

-12.6

Exports

165,733

133,000

24.6

158,547

4.5

2,868,544

2,581,772

11.1

(0)

-22.3

YTDFY14

278,000

Total 2 wheelers

-5.8

Oct-14

261,948

Scooters

-4.9
-

Two Wheeler sales and its growth in % YoY

4.0
3.0
2.0

1.0
0.0

Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Units in lakhs

SECTOR UPDATE

Nov-13 YOY %

Two wheelers sales in units

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

Growth Rates YOY

e

Source: BAL, Ventura Research Estimates

th

Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

12

Auto Monthly Update

TVS Motors

|CMP: `254 | M.Cap:` 12,098 crore|

Pick up in scooters and 3 wheeler volumes

TVS Motors has posted a robust growth of 36% in total sales in the month of
November14, at 220,046 units against 161,908 units YoY. Exports witnessed a
growth of 54.5% at 39,215 units in November14, as against 25,388 units during
November 2013. Total two wheeler sales increased by 35.6% to 210,979 units from
155,604 units recorded in November 2013. Scooters sales grew by 62.3% increasing
to 62,332 units in November 2014. Motorcycles sales grew by 40.6% to 86,424 units.
The recently launched TVS StaR City+ has been well received in the market.

TVS Motors

Nov-14

Nov-13 YOY %

Oct-14

YTDFY14

YTDFY13

YOY %

Motorcycles

86,424

61,471

40.6

90,779

-4.8

1,462,717

1,289,508

13.4

Scooters

62,223

38,331

62.3

70,571

-11.8

963,606

740,791

30.1

Mopeds

62,332

55,802

11.7

70,640

-11.8

1,247,855

1,260,908

-1.0

210,979

155,604

35.6

231,990

-9.1

3,674,178

3,291,207

11.6

3 Wheelers

9,067

6,304

43.8

9,054

0.1

152,694

102,582

48.9

Total sales

220,046

161,908

35.9

241,044

-8.7

3,826,872

3,393,789

12.8

2 wheelers - Domestic

171,764

135,218

27.0

197,135

-12.9

3,188,445

2,922,471

9.1

39,215

25,388

54.5

34,855

12.5

518,194

392,815

31.9

Total 2 Wheelers

2 wheelers - Exports

MOM %

1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

Scooters sales & growth trend (YoY)

50%

Units in lakhs

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%

Motor Cycle Sales

60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%

yoy Growth (%)

Source: TVS, Ventura Research Estimates

Two wheeler & motorcycles sales growth (YOY)

45

40
35
30

15

80%

Scooters

Two wheeler & motorcycle sales (Quarterly)

20

100%

yoy Growth (%)

Source: TVS, Ventura Research Estimates

Monthly
Auto Update
25

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14

Units in lakhs

Motorcycle sales & growth trend (YoY)

Unit in Lakhs

SECTOR UPDATE

Three wheeler sales of the company registered a robust growth of 43.8%, growing
from 9,067 units.

13

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

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Friday, 5 December, 2014

SECTOR UPDATE

Auto Monthly Update

Ventura Securities Limited

Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai 400079
This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable,
but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities
mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above
information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.

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Monthly Auto Update

Friday, 5 December, 2014

14