Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1988-89 Cabinet Paper 5790
1988-89 Cabinet Paper 5790
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Copy No.
C A B I N E T
44
MI N U T E
No. 11196
Submission No. 5790
(b)
(c)
(d)
... /2
This document is the property of the Australian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
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2.
No. 11196 (Cont'd)
(e)
(f)
(g)
2.
(a)
(b)
.. /3
This document is the property of the Australian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
[3]
3.
No. 11196 (Cont'd)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Secretary to Cabinet
This document is the property of the Australian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
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CABINET-IN-CONFIDENCE
... -
t)O r.,
Submssion No."
~o .
.............. ~ .. ,_..
__
FOR CABINET
vvv
-
... ..... .
Copy
,_...,~5
M inister
Relation to
existing policy
Sensitivity /Criticism
Legislation
involved
~ency:
critical/significant
dates
nsultation:
M inisters/Depts
consulted
Is there
agreement?
Timing/handling of
announcement
Cost
I
I
88-
89
Fin Yr (
89-
9\0
Fin Yr (
g o-
9)1
This document is the property of the Australian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
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BACKGROUND
The size and composition of the Migration Program are determined by
a mix of economic, social and demographic considerations. Current
policy is guided by the Prime Minister's directive of July 1987 to
continue to sharpen the Program's economic focus while maintaining
family reunion and humanitarian entry. Future policy directions
will come under scrutiny in the context of the report of CAAIP,
which I expect to table shortly. Given delays in the finalisation
of the report it has been necessary to develop a transitional
Program for 1988/89.
THE ISSUES
2.
The major issue is to set 1988/89 program arrangements. Such
arrangements should clean the slate on existing caseloads and
provide the Government with room to manoeuvre in its pending
consideration of CAAIP.
3.
Program Level: I propose a program level of 140,000 for 1988/89
to accommodate family reunion; maintain refugee and humanitarian
entry; meet essential skills demand through the Occupational Share
s~=tem (OSS) and Employer Nomination ~cneme (~N~j; provide for
increases to the Business Migration Program (BMP); and select those
I&C applicants already in the processing stream who meet a high
employability profile, ie have skills in demand. Proposed level and
composition of the 1988/89 program, compared with estimated program
outcome for 1987/88, is at Attachment B.
4.
I have not set a planning level beyond 1988/89, pending
Government consideration of CAAIP, which is likely to recommend
150,000 for each of the next three years 1988/89 to 1990/91.
5.
Family Migration: I propose to set the program at 35,000 visas
in 1988/89, in line with anticipated demand; this compares with
33,000 for 1987/88. Policy provides for virtually automatic entry
for spouses, dependent children and aged parents. CAAIP is likely
to recommend a continuation of policy with some minor adjustments.
6.
Refugees and SHP: On the basis of international assessments and
domestic factors, I propose to hold the program at a ceiling of
12,000 visas plus a 2,000 contingency reserve in 1988/89 and to
allow the option of reducing the proportion of refugee and funded
SHP places. I propose dealing with any concomitant increase in
unfunded entrants by varying the purpose of the Refugee,
Humanitarian and Assisted Movements vote to permit limited
contributions as appropriate towards international agency travel
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15.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
RECOMMENDATIONS
I recommend that Cabinet:
agree that the 1988/89 migration program should be
transitional, pending consideration of the broad directions set
out by the Committee to Advise on Australia's Immigration
Policies (CAAIP);
agree to a program of 140,000 for 1988/89 as set out in
Attachment B;
agree to a composition of 35,000 family, 12,000 refugees and
Special Humanitarian Program and a contingency reserve of
2,000, 77,000 economic (including 23,000 concessional visas);
and 14,000 Grant of Resident Status (GORS);
agree to restrict entry under Independent and Concessional
categories only to applicants scoring highly overall and on
employability;
note that this will give a greater emphasis to the selection of
young, skilled and readily employable migrants but affects
applicants who can no longer achieve this higher selection
~cquirement;
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)
(k)
(1)
12
MA(; A~1NET-IN-CONFIDENCE
CLYDE HOLDING
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ATTACHMENT A
1.
"Australia will select 140,000 new settlers during
1988-89 in a migration program both economic and
humanitarian in outlook", the Minister for Immigration,
Local Government and Ethnic Affairs, Mr Clyde Holding
announced today.
2.
"It provides the basis for any new directions that may
emerge from the Government's consideration of the FitzGerald
Report, tabled in Parliament on( .... date .... )", he said.
3.
''The policy has succeeded in being sensitive to
Australia's economy as well as to the genuine needs of
people.
4.
"There will be emphasis on bringing into Australia
skilled and entrepreneurial people to contribute to our
economy.
5.
"But, equally, Australia has compassion for those in
genuine need of sanctuary in our country and concern for the
reunification of close relatives in families".
6.
"It means an increase of 8,000 migrants over the
expanded figure of 132,000 for 1987-88", the Minister said.
7.
He said the 1988-89 program has been carefully tailored
to the national interest against the background of soaring
interest overseas, with migration inquiries now running at
around one and a quarter million a year.
8.
Family Migration: "The program will continue to provide
for relaxed entry for close family members, inclu~ing
spouses, dependent children and parents. 35,000 places have
been allocated. These provisions benefit both overseas-born
residents and many people born in Australia who marry
overseas or who have close family living overseas",
Mr Holding said.
9.
Refugee and Humanitarian Migration: "The Government has
reaffirmed its commitment to the global humanitarian and
refugee intake. This category is maintained at 12,000
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ATTACHMENT A
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.ATTACHMENT A
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ATTACHMENT A
8,000.
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ATTACHMENT A
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ATTACHMENT A
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. ATTACHMENT A
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MIGRATION PROGRAM
ATTACHMENT B
'000 PERSONS
Category
1988/89
1987/88
Program
Estimated
Proposed
Outcome
Program
Family
33
33
35
Refugees &SHP
12
11.2
12
Contingency
2(a)
Open Economic
oss
ENS
10
BMP
3.5
12
Independent
Concessional
Special Eligibility
Total Visas
GORS
TOTAL
42
1.5
13
22.5
,jQ.J
23
1.5
1.5
109
120.2
126
11
11.8
14
120
132 (b)
140
(a)
(b)
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ATTACHMENT C
15
Refugee
The
~~th
It may prove
The
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ATTACHMENT C
16
By
The situation in
In-country
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ATTACHMENT C
17
To maintain the
i:.i1~
claims.
8. This proposed refugee/SHP flexibility has implications
for the way funds for travel assistance are applied.
It is at the very
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ATTACHMENT C
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ATTACHMENT C
( i)
1987/88
DETAILED BREAKDOWN
funded
ref/SHP
unfunded
SHP
total
program
Indochinese
Eastern Europeans
Middle Easterners
Latin Americans
Africans
Others
Unallocated
3,820
1,100
2,080
900
1,100
S,900
2,000
1,600
1,77S
200
19S
330
1987/88 TOTAL
6,820
(ii)
1988/89
soo
1,22S
lSO
25
sso
so
170
330
anticipated
outcome
(pro rata)
6,210
2,166
1,066
l,S7S
120
43
20
S,l80
12,000
11,200
(plus 2,000 contingency reserve)
funded
ref/SHP
possible
funding
margin
unfunded
SHP
total
program
Indochinese
Eastern Europeans
Middle Easterners
Latin Americans
Africans
Others
Unallocated
2,800
900
500
l,SOO
lSO
400
100
200
2,000
1,300
1,100
300
100
300
200
5,200
2,300
1,600
2,000
200
100
600
1988/89 PROPOSED
6,000
so
so
so
s,ooo
1,000
12,000
(plus 2,000 contingency reserve)
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ATTACHMENT D
llk.~.i..y
1..;2, 000 by
e :L ,~
June 1988,
Under existing
Unless these
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ATTACHMENT D
21
5.
Independents receive
Table 1
They have
Because
Concessio~al
categories
Table 3
Some of
Others
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ATTACHMENT D
22
Table 1:
Independent
%
Concessional
%
86.2
5.8
0.7
7.3
29.8
32.5
26.4
11.3
100.0
100.0
<a>
<b>
Source:
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ATTACHMENT D
23
Table 2:
COUNTRY/POST
1987-88 (Jul-Jan>
1986-87
UNITED KINGDOM
HONG KONG
MALAYSIA
IRELAND
DENMARK
U.S.A.
BRUNEI
SINGAPORE
PORTUGAL
GREECE
SWEDEN
SOUTH AFRICA
GERMANY, WEST
MAURITIUS
THAILAND
SRI LANKA
CANADA
Number
Per cent
Number
Per cent
2,859
211
79
220
129
136
<a>
(a>
103
(a>
61.0
4.5
1.7
4.7
2.8
2.9
3,530
542
408
405
220
217
173
157
153
134
115
110
110
110
110
107
102
44.6
6.8
5.2
5.1
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
2.2
\a J
70
<a>
<a>
<a>
(a>
<a>
1.5
OTHER
800
18.8
1,214
15.3
TOTAL
4,687
100.0
7,917
100.0
<a>
(Source:
included in 'other'
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ATTACHMENT D
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Table 3:
COUNTRY/POST
1985-86 (a>
Number
Per cent
1,049
6,278
972
(b)
854
2,213
1,123
1,844
(b)
1,145
1,169
(b)
(b)
991
(b)
739
699
691
687
619
3.5
21.1
3.3
3.8
.. 3. 9
OTHER
TOTAL
PHILIPPINES
UNIT~D KINGDOM
) MALAYSIA
MAURITIUS
LEBANON (c)
HONG KONG
YUGOSLAVIA
SOUTH AFRICA
FIJI
INDIA
CIIILE
EGYPT
SINGAPORE
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
CHINA
KOREA, SOUTH
ARGENTINA
CANADA
PORTUGAL
1986-87
Number
1987-88 (Jul-Jan>
Per cent
Number
Per cent
8.0
22.5
4.9
4.6
2.2
3.6
5.3
5.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
2,792
7,842
1,701
1,607
779
1,254
1,830
1,903
(b)
1,075
1,006
(b)
1,020
1,398
896
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
8,718
29.3
9,688
27.8
6,329
25.0
29,791
100.0
34,791
100.0
25,345
100.0
2.9
7.4
3.8
6.2
3.3
3.1
4,428
3,903
1,230
1.186
1,104
1,079
1,065
1,048
850
664
bjl
:.:::.~
619
619
590
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
2.9
4.0
2.6
17.5
15.4
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.4
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
(a)
<b>
Less than 2%
(C)
<Source:
included in 'other'
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ATTACHMENT D
Table 4:
Country
NOTE:
<Source:
Less than 2%
included in 'other'
<c>
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ATTACHMENT D
FIGURE 1
501
40i
30
20
10
0
Famil~
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ATTACHMENT E
No.
1979
11,668
1980
14,275
1981
19,102
1982
12,923
1983
7,789
1984
6,640
1985
10,601
1986
15,185
1987
15,923
1988
16,000(a)
1989
16,000(a)
(a)
Estimate.
SOURCE:
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ATTACHMENT F
Permanent
departures,
Australia,
1961-87
Sources:
Department of
Immigration and
Ethnic affairs.
Australian
Immigration
Consolidated
Statistics No. 13.
1982and
UIIIJUUiiShed
statistics. and
Australian Bureau of
Statistics. Austalian
Demographic
Statistics.
September Quarter
1986.
rooo,
Other
resident
departures
Former
selller
departures
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1987
2.
Permanent departures are made up of former settlers and other
residents (primarily Australian-born). There is a relationship
between settler arrivals and former settlers departing: since the
1960s the latter have generally been between 15% and 20% of the
former two to three years previously. In recent years the lag
between arrival and departure has shortened to two years while the
departure rate has dropped from 19.5% in 1978/79 to about 14% in
1986/87. This can be attributed to the changing composition of the
intake.
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ATTACHMENT F
3.
Rates of return migration vary markedly by birthplace group and
policy category. Lowest return rates are of people from Asia and in
the refugee category. Assuming a refugee intake of 12,000 and no
significant change to the birthplace composition of the intake, the
departure rate is estimated to be 15.5% in 1988/89. This, combined
with the increase in settler arrivals in recent years, is expected
to result in an increase in permanent departures to about 24,400 in
1988/89.
4.
Given these trends, the gain to Australia from net permanent
migration is somewhat less than the intake figure. In 1986/87 net
permanent gain was 103,717, representing the continuation of the
rise in net gain from 55,501 in 1983/84. In 1987/88 net permanent
gain is estimated at 128,000 with a further increase to 130,000 in
1988/89 assuming a total program figure of 140,000. These figures
include Grant of Resident Status approvals and net permanent gain
from New Zealaw.l L:.J..L..J..~eu Htuvt=uu:::ui...
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ATTACHMENT G
CO-ORDINATION COMMENTS
Department of Employment, Education and Training
1.
The Department of Employment, Education and Training notes the
transitional nature of the proposed 1988/89 program and generally
agrees with the approach taken.
2.
In relation to the two options presented for the Independent
and Concessional (I&C) category, option (a) would be preferable on
labour market grounds, but the Department recognises the likelihood
of strong community reaction if that option were accepted. However,
option (b) would also result in a significant increase in the
economic contribution of the I&C category compared to that of recent
years, and is therefore supported. At the same time, the Department
considers the increasing emphasis on economic migration should also
be accompanied by measures to increase domes~1c ~raining activity.
The Department agrees with the retention of the Employer Nomination
Scheme and the Occupational Shares System as separate categories
within the program, pending the consideration of the CAAIP report.
3.
The Department notes the principal justification for the
increase in the overall program figure to 140,000 immigrants would
appear to be largely based on the need to clear the existing
backlog, and does not provide a guide to the ongoing program size.
It also notes with some concern the suggestion in paragraph 14(c)
that program levels in 1988/89 may not be controlled unless
additional computer resources are provided.
Treasury
4.
Treasury supports the thrust of the Submission, noting the
intention to maintain program flexibility (essential to a program
which provides greater emphasis to economic considerations) by the
retention of separate ENS and Business Migration Program categories.
Resources should, however not be allocated for computers or other
resources in anticipation of Government approval of CAAIP
recommendations. Such proposals, in any case, require Expenditure
Review Committee considerations.
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ATTACHMENT G
Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce
5.
The Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce considers
that a higher intake to take advantage of the upsurge in the
popularity of Australia with independent, skilled or business
applicants would be preferable.
6.
The Department also favours option (a) in paragraph 13 (ie a
higher proportion of independents in the Independent and
Concessional category) to more closely align the Migration Program
with economic policies and the need to improve the skills base of
the Australian workforce.
Department of Industrial Relations
7.
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ATTACHMENT G
1988/89) and the recent decision for 1987/88 (132,000) provides
sufficient information for general planning purposes at this stage.
If, however, Ministers wish to take a decision now, Finance
considers that any additional resources should be treated as a first
charge on the portfolio's new policy allocation and that there
should be a clear expectation that offsetting savings will be
expected in that context. This should apply also to any resource
implications for the Review function foreshadowed in the Submission.
10. In relation to the size of the immigration program, Finance
does not accept that there is a clear case that an increase will
reduce calls on the budget over time; indeed, Finance is concerned
that an increase runs the risk of increasing calls on the budget in
the short term and increasing domestic demand when macro-economic
concerns require the opposite. The composition of the intake is of
greatest importance in both the short and longer term; in this
regard, FiD.u.u.::.s: .::c::.::;i.d.c:LS tt.~t , in line ~7i -+:h option (a) , a stronger
emphasis should be given to economic migration by selecting only
those migrants in the Concessional category achieving highest scores
on the employability criterion.
.)
11. Finance considers that a lower target than the proposed 140,000
should be set, but accepts that there may be a case for a small
increase in the level of the migration intake in 1988/89 (only) to
accommodate the backlog that has developed. It is concerned that
steps be taken to ensure that demand is managed so that the program
does not blow-out as has happened in each of the last two years. It
also considers that consideration should be given to substantially
increasing the level of migration fees to provide an improved
rationing device, and to offset cost pressures. Iri particular,
Finance considers that the increase in post-arrival services costs
should be met from increased revenue.
12. With regard to the additional funds sought for computer
systems, Finance considers that agreement to the proposal should be
subject to the identification of offsetting productivity gains
(savings).
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ATTACHMENT G
Attorney-General's Department
13.
No comment.
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ATTACHMENT G
the absence of details about intended distribution of additional
staff, DFAT reserves its position in relation to possible additional
resources resulting from the proposed program's impact on individual
posts. Furthermore, DFAT is concerned about the possible effect
program changes may have on the work done at the posts where DILGEA
is not represented. Provision of additional Locally Engaged Staff
resources may be required if workloads increase.
16. The need for computing equipment and software at posts and for
international communications facilities is the subject of an
imminent review by the Information Exchange Steering Committee.
Issues relating to the compatibility of systems, provision of
communication and the disposition of existing DILGEA computers
should be considered by that review.
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