BIg Data Is Not About Data

Big Data is Not About the Data!
Gary King1
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Harvard University
Talk at the History of Evidence class, Harvard Law School, 11/17/2014
GaryKing.org
1/10
The Value in Big Data: the Analytics
2/10

Data:
2/10

Data:
easy to come by; often a free byproduct of IT improvements
2/10

Data:
becoming commoditized
2/10

Data:
Ignore it & every institution will have more every year
2/10

Data:
With a bit of effort: huge data production increases
2/10

Data:
Where the Value is: the Analytics
2/10

Data:
Output can be highly customized
2/10

Data:
Moores Law (doubling speed/power every 18 months)
2/10

Data:
v. Our Students (1000x speed increase in 1 day)
2/10

Data:
$2M computer v. 2 hours of algorithm design
2/10

Data:
Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed
2/10

Data:
Low cost; little infrastructure; mostly human capital needed
Innovative analytics: enormously better than off-the-shelf
2/10
Examples of whats now possible
3/10

Opinions of activists:
3/10

Opinions of activists: A few thousand interviews
3/10

billions of
political opinions in social media posts (1B every 2 Days)
3/10

billions of
Exercise:
3/10

billions of
Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last
week?
3/10

billions of
500K people carrying cell phones with

week?
accelerometers
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers
Social contacts:
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers
Social contacts: A survey: Please tell me your 5 best
friends
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers
continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

friends
messages, bluetooth, social media connections, address books
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers

friends
Economic development in developing countries:
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers

friends
Economic development in developing countries: Dubious or
nonexistent governmental statistics
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers

friends
satellite images of
human-generated light at night, road networks, other
infrastructure
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers

friends
satellite images of
infrastructure
Many, many, more. . .
3/10

billions of

week?
accelerometers

friends
satellite images of
infrastructure
Many, many, more. . .
In each: without new analytics, the data are useless
3/10
The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide
4/10

The Quant-Qual divide exists in every field.
4/10

Qualitative researchers: overwhelmed by information; need
help
4/10

help
Quantitative researchers: recognize the huge amounts of
information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze

unstructured text, video, audio as data
4/10

help

Expert-vs-analytics contests: Whenever enough information is
quantified, a right answer exists, and good analytics are

applied: analytics wins
4/10

help


Moral of the story:
4/10

help


Moral of the story:
Fully human is inadequate
4/10

help


Moral of the story:
Fully automated fails
4/10

help


Moral of the story:
We need computer assisted, human controlled technology
4/10

help


Moral of the story:

We need computer assisted, human controlled technology
(Technically correct, & politically much easier)
4/10
How to Read a Billion Blog Posts

& Classify Deaths without Physicians
5/10

Examples of Bad Analytics:
5/10

Physicians Verbal Autopsy analysis
5/10

Sentiment analysis via word counts
5/10

Different problems, Same Analytics Solution:
5/10

Key to both methods: classifying (deaths, social media posts)
5/10

Key to both goals: estimating %s
5/10

Modern Data Analytics: New method led to:
5/10

1.
5/10

1.
2. Worldwide cause-of-death estimates for
5/10
The Solvency of Social Security
6/10

Successful: single largest government program; lifted a whole
generation out of poverty; extremely popular
6/10


Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts:
6/10


Solvency: depends on mortality forecasts: If retirees receive
benefits longer than expected, the Trust Fund runs out
6/10



SSA data: little change other than updates for 75 years
6/10



SSA analytics:
6/10



SSA analytics:
Few statistical improvements for 75 years
6/10



SSA analytics:
Ignore risk factors (smoking, obesity)
6/10



SSA analytics:
Mostly informal (subject to error & political influence)
6/10



SSA analytics:
Forecasts: inaccurate, inconsistent, overly optimistic
6/10



SSA analytics:
New customized analytics we developed:
6/10



SSA analytics:
Logical consistency (e.g., older people have higher mortality)
6/10



SSA analytics:
More accurate forecasts
6/10



SSA analytics:
Trust fund needs $800 billion more than SSA thought
6/10



SSA analytics:
Trust fund needs $800 billion more than SSA thought

Other applications to insurance industry, public health, etc.
6/10
Following Conversations that Hide in Plain Sight
7/10

Example Substitution 1:
7/10

7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
Eye field
7/10

Freedom
Eye field (nonsensical)
7/10

Example Substitution 1: Homograph
Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
Harmonious [Society] (official slogan)
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom
7/10

Freedom

River crab
7/10

Freedom

River crab (irrelevant)
7/10

Freedom
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (sound like hexie)

7/10

Freedom

They cant follow the conversation; Our methods can!
7/10

Freedom


The same task:
7/10

Freedom


The same task: (1) Government and industry analysts job,
7/10

Freedom


The same task: (1) Government and industry analysts job, (2)
language drift (#BostonBombings
#BostonStrong),
7/10

Freedom


#BostonStrong), (3) Child
pornographers,
7/10

Freedom


pornographers, (4) Look-alike modeling,
7/10

Freedom


pornographers, (4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for
sophisticated automated text analysis
7/10
Computer-Assisted Reading (Consilience)
8/10

To understand many documents, humans create categories to
represent conceptualization, insight, etc.
8/10


Most firms: impose fixed categorizations to tally customer
complaints, sort reports, retrieve information
8/10



Bad Analytics:
8/10



Bad Analytics:
Unassisted Human Categorization: time consuming; huge
efforts trying not to innovate!
8/10



Bad Analytics:

Fully Automated Cluster Analysis: Many widely available,
but none work (computers dont know what you want!)
8/10



Bad Analytics:


Our alternative: Computer-assisted Categorization
8/10



Bad Analytics:


You decide whats important, but with help
8/10



Bad Analytics:


Invert effort: you innovate; the computer categorizes
8/10



Bad Analytics:


Insights: easier, faster, better
8/10



Bad Analytics:


Insights: easier, faster, better
(Lots of technology, but its behind the scenes)
8/10
Example Insights from Computer-Assisted Reading
9/10

1. What Members of Congress Do
9/10

Data: 64,000 Senators press releases
9/10

Categorization: (1) advertising, (2) position taking, (3) credit
claiming
9/10

claiming
New Insight: partisan taunting
9/10

claiming
Joe Wilson during Obamas State of the Union: You lie!
9/10

claiming
Senator Lautenberg Blasts Republicans as Chicken Hawks
9/10

claiming
How common is it?
9/10

claiming
How common is it? 27% of all Senatorial press releases!
9/10

claiming
2. Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship
9/10

claiming

Previous approach: manual effort to see what is taken down
9/10

claiming

Data: We get posts before the Chinese censor them
9/10

claiming

We analyzed 11 million posts, about 13% censored
9/10

claiming

Previous understanding: they censor criticisms of the
government
9/10

claiming

government
Results:
9/10

claiming

government
Results:
Uncensored: criticism of the government
9/10

claiming

government
Results:
Uncensored: criticism of the government
Censored: attempts at collective action
9/10
For more information
GaryKing.org
10/10

BIg Data Is Not About Data

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Big Data is Not About the Data!

Talk at the History of Evidence class, Harvard Law School, 11/17/2014

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

The Value in Big Data: the Analytics

Examples of whats now possible

Examples of whats now possible

Examples of whats now possible

Examples of whats now possible

Examples of whats now possible

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

nonexistent governmental statistics

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

Examples of whats now possible

Exercise: A survey: How many times did you exercise last

500K people carrying cell phones with

continuous record of phone calls, emails, text

The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide

The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide

The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide

The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide

information in qualitative analyses, starting to analyze

The End of The Quantitative-Qualitative Divide