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Speciale Uitgaven 4 Van 5
Speciale Uitgaven 4 Van 5
the Netherlands
Group Economics
May 2012
Main conclusions
The strong asset base of Dutch households and the full tax deductibility of interest payments are the primary
reasons for the relatively high mortgage debt levels in the Netherlands.
From 2013 onwards, it is expected that tax deductibility will only apply to amortising mortgage loans. Existing
mortgage borrowers will be excluded from this change and continue to benefit from the existing tax regime.
First-time buyers will be hit by this change, which translates into higher net mortgage servicing costs.
The Dutch housing market is unlikely to recover in the short run. Cyclical headwinds to the economy, a very low
level of consumer confidence and structural changes to the housing and mortgage market are making people
reluctant to buy a house. House prices are likely to decline further in the short run.
Foreclosures rates are very low, especially in international comparisons. Although the modest recession is likely
to result in an increase in the foreclosure rate, the resilient structure of the economy and the mortgage market
will prevent a sharp increase in mortgage defaults.
Authors
Ruben van Leeuwen, CFA
Fixed Income Research
+31 20 3422036
Philip Bokeloh
Economist
+31 20 3832657
the fact the rental sector is often not cheaper for home-owners.
significant burden. The higher the debt burden, the higher the
risk.
times
sustainability.
of
deleveraging,
the
negative
aspects
of
debt
Like the debt burden, the level of assets also ranks high in
loans1. Debt reduction will clearly get more priority in this new
tax treatment.
explanation for the high debt burden is the Dutch tax system.
Mortgage interest payments are fully deductible from taxable
income. With high marginal income tax rates up to 52%, the
government subsidises a large part of the mortgage servicing
costs. There is not only a strong incentive to obtain a high
background
information.
The
purpose
of
this
Economy
trade. Exports equal 78% of GDP and imports account for 71%
These factors are not only important for the mortgage market,
% GDP
20
Structure
15
10
-5
-10
GR
PT
ES
IT
US
FR
UK
BE
EA*
FI
JN
AT
DE
DK
LU
SE
NL
CH
NO
quarter. In terms of population, the country is also mediumsized in Europe. The Netherlands currently has 16.7 million
inhabitants living in almost 7.5 million households. Combining
Source: OECD
* EA = Eurozone
Labour market
The Dutch labour market is characterised by a low
unemployment rate (currently 4.9% according to international
definitions2) and a high participation rate (80.1%). By
international comparison, the former percentage is low,
300
250
200
150
income.
100
50
Source: Eurostat
* EA = Eurozone
2
unemployment.
Unemployment
% of labour force
12
10
% GDP
6
4
600
500
400
00
01
02
BE
03
04
FR
05
DE
06
07
NL
08
09
UK
10
11
12
300
Eurozone
200
100
Source: OECD
Mortgage debt
Assets
Liabilities
Wealth
EUR 756 billion. This implies that for each euro in debt, there
is EUR 2.41 in financial assets and EUR 1.76 in non-financial
Social security
assets.
mandatory for all employees. For those who lose their jobs, the
consumption
substantially.
has
fallen
Since
back
then,
to
an
2003
levels.
impressive
Weak
economic
Consumer confidence
NL
DK
IR
UK
SE
NO
PT
ES
DE
BE
FI
FR
GR
AT
IT
index
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CBS
20
40
60
80
100
120
Source: EMF
For households there are two problems with the asset side of
the balance sheet. First, the bulk of the assets is not liquid.
Cyclical developments
Budget deficit
% GDP
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: CPB
2011
2012 2013
% changes
GDP
Private consumption
1.7
1.2
-0.6
1.4
0.4
-1.1
-0.7
0.4
Government consumption
1.0
0.2
-0.8
-0.4
Investments
-4.4
5.8
-2.0
2.4
Exports
10.8
3.8
0.9
5.3
Imports
10.6
3.5
0.0
4.9
1.3
2.3
2.0
1.6
Wages
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.5
6.5
6.7
Levels
5.4
5.4
7.1
9.2
8.1
8.2
-5.1
-4.7
-4.3
-4.1
Housing market
Home ownership
60
50
40
Supply at a glance
Housing is by nature a supply-driven market. Due to the high
30
20
10
0
1947
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2010
(potential) buyers.
Market distortions
The Dutch housing market is heavily regulated and is
characterised by numerous explicit and implicit subsidies. The
government tries to enforce quality and affordability. Several
instruments are being used to achieve these objectives.
Supply side
The government steers the supply side of the housing market.
Current developments
prices.
The
government
also
regulates
construction.
Indicator
and that transaction levels will remain low for the near future.
legislation
an
Dutch
housing
quality
has
reached
of
Vereniging
Eigen
Huis,
homeowners'
200
Demand side
State intervention also prevails on the demand side of the
150
market. Both home owners and the rental sector are affected.
The most important interference for home owners consists of
100
50
0
BE
NL
AT
ES
SE
FR
CA
UK
NZ
NO
DK
IT
IR
FI
GR
US
CH
GE
JN
KO
Price-to-income
Price-to-rent
Source: OECD
OECD
research shows
that
the
Outlook
housing mobility.
Rental market
three elements. Firstly, rents for most rental houses are bound
rent for the social housing sector and regulates the yearly rent
down 24% from 2011 levels to reach the 30-year average long
sector
guarantee
by
obliging
housing
corporations
to
10
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
US
DE
FR
UK
BE
DK
NL
Source: OECD
11
Mortgage market
The Dutch housing market has its domestic dynamics, but the
mortgage market has an even larger local flavour. In
comparison with other countries, the Dutch mortgage market is
rather complex. Plain-vanilla amortising mortgages are rare in
the Netherlands, whereas this mortgage product is very
common in other countries. The tax system, the Mortgage
An example clarifies the effects of the tax deductibility even better. A gross
income of EUR 45,000 has a marginal tax rate of 42%. Suppose a 5% fixed
rate mortgage of EUR 250,000, so that gross interest payments (payable to
the bank) equal EUR 12,500 per annum. This latter amount is fully
deductible from taxable income, resulting in a tax advantage of 42% x EUR
12,500 = EUR 5,250. Net interest payments are therefore EUR 12,500
EUR 5,250 = EUR 7,250. The tax benefit is not constrained, i.e. the higher
the mortgage, the higher the interest payments, the higher the deduction.
Moreover, there is an even higher tax bracket of 52%, implying that the tax
subsidy could run up to more than half of actual interest payments.
Code of Conduct and the NHG guarantee system are the most
distinguishing factors on the Dutch mortgage market. These
The system therefore stimulates home ownership. Second, the
tax savings. The tax system is therefore the main reason why
tax system reduces the incentive to pay back the principal for
But over the last two decades, the conditions for deduction
only.
th
% of mortgage value
The need for structural reform on the housing market, and the
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
IT
AT
LU
PT
IR
FR
GR
ES
BE
US
FI
SE
NO
CZ
DK
NL
Source: OECD
prior to this date will continue to benefit from the old tax
regime. In the case of mortgage transfer or refinancing, the old
tax regime will remain applicable to the old mortgage amount.
The new tax regime will then apply to any additional mortgage
loan.
Existing mortgage holders will not be affected by the change in
the tax system. Directly hit by the new tax system are first-time
buyers, although a yet undisclosed transitional regime will
apply. Nevertheless, first-time buyers will face higher mortgage
12
The code was enacted in the early 1990s, but until 2007 it
buy a house.
Other taxes
the purchase amount. This tax rate was 6%, but in order to
2010.
was unclear when this limit will apply. Before 2010, loans with
Another important change (2010) is the constraint on interestonly (I/O) mortgage loans. These products are still allowed, but
100
80
60
tightening
Loan-to-value
40
120
20
100
0
easing
-20
80
-40
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: DNB
40
20
Source: ECB
FI
EA*
SI
AT
PT
NL
MT
LU
IT
CY
FR
ES
IR
GR
DE
BE
*EA = Eurozone
designed
to
prevent
overlending
to
consumers,
but
guarantee
guarantee fund and sets requirements for the NHG itself. The
recent years.
protection
system
to
the
run
by
borrower
the
in
public
case
of
foundation
unforeseen
13
14
Mortgage products
onwards, new I/O mortgage loans will not benefit from tax
part and an I/O part. Although each originator has its specific
product
lines,
the
following
mortgage
products
are
distinguished in general:
% of all mortgages
100%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1998
2002
Traditional
Life insurance
2004
Investments
Other
2006
2008
2010
Savings
Interest only
system.
mechanism attached to the mortgage that allows for the buildup of principal. This form of mortgage is currently the most
popular mortgage product, with a market share of roughly
50%. Interest only mortgages have become popular for two
reasons. First, because there is no principal repayment, the
debt servicing costs are lower than in other mortgage
products. This has led to higher affordability of mortgage
financing and in the end, of owning a house. Second, these
mortgages offer full and easy tax advantages. In general,
young people (first-time buyers) use I/O mortgage loans to
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009 H1
2009 H2
2010 H1
Interest-only
Other
Investments
2010 H2
2011 H1
2011 H2
Bank savings
Savings insurance
Unknown
except for the fact that the capital is not accumulated in a bank
15
40%, longer term fixed rates are still the most commonly used
Risks
and notices are sent out usually within days. Statistics from
various rating agencies show that mortgage arrears are very
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
04
05
06
NL (non-NHG)
IR
ES
07
08
NL (NHG)
IT
UK
09
10
11
GR
PT
years. Statistics from the Dutch central bank DNB indicate that
year) is currently 23%. Longer term fixings are still more usual,
16
very strict and austere. Just handing over the keys to the bank
Selling the house and switching to the rental sector often does
250
200
150
100
50
Conclusion
0
-50
-100
<25 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 7530 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Average
17
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