DEC 3rd Fact Finding Meeting:

What do we know about storm protection and the role of Piermont Marsh?
Piermont, Wed Jan 7, 2015

Storms, Floods, Waves & Debris:

Observations and Inferences for
Protection- , Risk- and
Marsh-Management
Decisions
Klaus H. Jacob
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory &
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu

This presentations has three parts:

I. Relationships between Marsh and
Storms/Floods
II. How these Relationships could change if
some of the Marsh was going to be
modified.
III. My personal Comments &
Recommendations based on (1) and (2)
for pending development of a
Marsh Management Plan

Key Points Re I.) Marsh Effects during Storms

1. Marsh does not diminish the (still-water) flood elevation
This applies to extreme surges
and applies to ordinary
i.e. Sandy
high-tide flooding

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3.5 NAVD
x

9.7 .1
x

9.7
x

USGS Sandy
High-Water
Marks
My own.

8.9
I
V

3.5 NAVD
x

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

2. Marsh reduces wave action substantially.

In Bogertown, neither during Irene nor Sandy any perceptible waves were
observed
In contrast, north of the pier, wave heights were estimated to be at least 2
to 3 feet during Sandy
These findings are supported by theoretical and experimental studies,
e.g.: USGS study in San Francisco Bay Area:

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

2. Marsh reduces wave action substantially.

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

3. Marsh catches debris & reduces risk of impact to houses

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

4. High & dense phragmites works better than lesser plants

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

4. High & dense phragmites works better than lesser plants
5. This is especially true for very high storm surges. Why?

Phragmites exceeds height of Flood Crests

(even for Sandy)
The entire water column and wind boundary layer
experiences friction

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

6. The Marsh (even with phragmites) needs to be sufficiently wide
to catch debris and attenuate wave action.

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

6. The Marsh (even with phragmites) needs to be sufficiently wide
to catch debris and attenuate wave action.
7. Where it was not, Sandy damaged retaining wall of Condos

Key Points Re I) Marsh Effects during Storms

8.Debris and breaking waves seem to flatten the phragmites
in distinct patterns (but heavy wet snow can too).

Winter 1969/70

Key Points Re
II) Potential Flood Effects and Risks from Phrag Removal
1. Marsh looses much of its capacity for wave attenuation
and debris protection, probably for a decade or more
2. The Risk for Marsh Erosion is increased

Key Points Re
II) Potential Flood Effects and Risks from Phrag Removal
3. If Herbicides were used, high tides could flood them into
some gardens several times a year, and during storms into
low-lying houses, the ball field & 2 childrens playgrounds,
although less often.

Key Points Re
II) Potential Flood Effects and Risks from Phrag Removal
4. If Herbicides were used, risks to amphibians and fish(*)
are likely, and because of transport during floods, risks to
flood-exposed residents cannot be ruled out. Recent
research hints that the risk is highest when e.g. Glyphosates enter the food chain(**). This may jeopardize home
gardening & fishing (and perhaps usage of play grounds & the
village ball field ?). Risk not known, but Safety not proven either!!

* http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/04-1291
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=glyphosate+amphibian&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C33
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=glyphosate+fish&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C33&as_sdtp=
** Swanson N.L. et al. 2014. J. Organic Systems 9 (2), 6-37, 2014 KHJ: Correlation Causation. => Hint!
Samsel, A. & S. Seneff 2013. Entropy 2013, 15, 1416-1463. KHJ: Causation through the guts microbiome
and other references on request to KHJ.

Key Points Re
II) Potential Flood Effects and Risks from Phrag Removal
5. Sea Level Rise accelerates & amplifies all of the above.

Donna

1962
Noreaster

Irene

My Garden Floods

Monthly Flood Extremes at Battery, 1884-2014

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Feet above MHHW

Sandy

III. Inferences for Management Plan from

I) Marsh Effects during Storms; and II) Phrag Removal
1. Removal of Phragmites, if at all
contemplated, should be limited
to a small diversity garden in a
near-central part of the Marsh. I
suggest the area surrounded by
the oxbow (after infilling the
short-cut channel).
2. Reason: preserve maximum
wave attenuation, debris
catchment, sedimentation, and
nutrient cleanup, and avoid
erosion. Lesser plants perform
poorer protection especially
during severe storms. =>Liability
re home damage & home values.

III. Inferences for Management Plan

3. Use freed up resources to consider
oyster reefs on E side (outboard) of
the marsh as breakwaters ==>

Source: Scape / RBD

and/or off N Piermont / Marinas.

III. Inferences for Management Plan from

I) Marsh Effects during Storms; and II) Phrag Removal
5 . No herbicides in Marsh => Flooding => for Public Health
& Liability Issues alone.
=>

=>-

6. Use the Cautionary Principle: if you dont understand the

processes that relate causes to effects, and effects to
causes, or actions to outcomes, then desist acting thereby minimizing possible risks (to marsh, people, life & NYS).
Also: Justifying actions by Benefit Cost Analyses is ethically/morally
questionable if potential costs are unacceptable, whatever the benefits.
Recent Example of Applying the Cautionary Principle:
Governors Decision to Sustain Fracking Ban for New York State
because of Uncertainty in Environmental Risks & Health Hazards

Thank you

2010 (pre-Irene)

2013
PostSandy
&
PostSnow
of Nov 7