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Divergence
Divergence
STRONG DIVERGENCE
Below is an image that portrays regular bullish divergence.
Now, if the price is making a higher high (HH), but the oscillator is lower high (LH), then you
have regular bearish divergence.
This type of divergence can be found in an uptrend. After price makes that second high, if the
oscillator makes a lower high, then you can probably expect price to reverse and drop.
In the image below, we see that price reverses after making the second top.
As you can see from the images above, the regular divergence is best used when trying to pick
tops and bottoms. You are looking for an area where price will stop and reverse.
The oscillators signal to us that momentum is starting to shift and even though price has made a
higher high (or lower low), chances are that it won't be sustained.
Hidden Divergence
Divergences not only signal a potential trend reversal; they can also be used as a possible sign for
a trend continuation. Always remember, the trend is your friend, so whenever you can get a signal
that the trend will continue, then good for you!
Hidden bullish divergence happens when price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is
showing a lower low (LL).
This can be seen when the pair is in an uptrend. Once price makes a higher low, look and see if
the oscillator does the same. If it doesn't and makes a lower low, then we've got some hidden
divergence in our hands.
Lastly, we've got hidden bearish divergence. This occurs when price makes a lower high (LH),
but the oscillator is making a higher high (HH). By now you've probably guessed that this occurs
in a downtrend. When you see hidden bearish divergence, chances are that the pair will continue
to shoot lower and continue the downtrend.
We can see from the falling trend line that USD/CHF has been in a downtrend. However, there
are signs that the downtrend will be coming to an end.
While price has registered lower lows, the stochastic (our indicator of choice) is showing a higher
low.
Something smells fishy here. Is the reversal coming to an end? Is it time to buy this sucker?
If you had answered yes to that last question, then you would have found yourself in the middle
of the Caribbean, soaking up margaritas, as you would have been knee deep in your pip winnings!
It turns out that the divergence between the stochastic and price action was a good signal to buy.
Price broke through the falling trend line and formed a new uptrend. If you had bought near the
bottom, you could have made more than a thousand pips, as the pair continued to shoot even
higher in the following months.
Now can you see why it rocks to get in on the trend early?!
Before we move on, did you notice the tweezer bottoms that formed on the second low?
Keep an eye out for other clues that a reversal is in place. This will give you more confirmation
that a trend is coming to an end, giving you even more reason to believe in the power of
divergences!
Next, let's take a look at an example of some hidden divergence. Once again, let's hop on to the
daily chart of USD/CHF.
Here we see that the pair has been in a downtrend. Notice how price has formed a lower high but
the stochastic is printing higher highs.
According to our notes, this is hidden bearish divergence! Hmmm, what should we do? Time to
get back in the trend?
Well, if you ain't sure, you can sit back and watch on the sidelines first.
If you decided to sit that one out, you might be as bald as Professor Xavier because you pulled
out all your hair.
Why?
Well the trend continued!
Price bounced from the trend line and eventually dropped almost 2000 pips!
Imagine if you had spotted the divergence and seen that as a potential signal for a continuation of
the trend?
Not only would you be sipping those margaritas in the Caribbean, you'd have your own pimpin'
yacht to boot!
Momentum Tricks
While using divergences is a great tool to have in your trading toolbox, there are times when you
might enter too early because you didn't wait for more confirmation. Below are a couple of tricks
that you can make use of so that you have more confirmation that the divergence will work out in
your favor.
In the chart above, the pair showed lower highs while the stochastic already made higher highs.
Now that's a bearish divergence there and it sure is tempting to short right away.
But, you know what they say, patience is a virtue. It'd be better to wait for the stochastic to make
a downward crossover as confirmation that the pair is indeed headed down.
A couple of candles later, the stochastic did make that crossover. Playing that bearish divergence
would've been pip-tastic!
What's the main point here? Just be patient! Don't try to jump the gun because you don't quite
know when momentum will shift! If you aren't patient, you might just get burned as one side
keeps dominating!
You may think that it's time to buy because the indicator is showing oversold conditions and
divergence has formed. However, selling pressure may remain strong and price continues to fall
and make a new low.
You would have been pretty bummed out as trend didn't continue. In fact, a new downtrend is
probably in place as the pair is now forming lower highs. And if you were stubborn, you might
have missed out on this down move too.
If you had waited patiently for more confirmation that the divergence had formed, then you could
have avoided losing and realized that a new trend was developing.
You may notice that the indicator will also respect the trend line. If you see both price action and
the momentum indicator break their respective trend lines, it could signal a shift in power from
buyers to sellers (or vice versa) and that the trend could be changing. Oh yeah! Break it down like
a Michael Jackson video!
Don't even bother looking at an indicator unless ONE of these four price scenarios have occurred.
If not, you ain't trading a divergence, buddy. You're just imagining things. Immediately go see
your optometrist and get some new glasses.
6. Keep in Line
The highs or lows you identify on the indicator MUST be the ones that line up VERTICALLY
with the price highs or lows. It's just like picking out what to wear to the club - you gotta be fly
and matchin' yo!