US Strategy Report: 20th November 2014

Daily Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
A fast-paced morning session today as we had Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data come in. French and German data missed on
their headlines with the German figure sparking mass weakness in the DAX and Estoxx. Although the DAX found support just
below S2, it has not pushed past the double resistance formed yesterday. In a correlated move we saw the Bund push higher to
extremities of todays range, aiding T-Notes to move higher. We also had UK Retail Sales this morning coming in at 0.80% against
an expected 0.30%. This allowed Cable to make new highs for the session and this move has been sustained for the duration of
the morning. We had the Feds Minutes overnight, coming in with a mix of commentary. This included discussion of removing
considerable time from their Monetary Policy, a phrase which has elevated the Feds dovish position since rates were cut to
historic lows. It should be noted that only one voting member voted against keeping this dovish language and the majority line
meant there was little effect in the markets. However the discussion of this should be noted as it becomes more important with
each US data point that exceeds analysts expectations. The decision to remove Quantitative Easing from the Feds policy was
unanimous as data had improved considerably over the past year. The most interesting part of an otherwise boring set of minutes
comes from a section which implied that the Fed would soon provide a better picture of how they intend to raise rates, the pace of
the hikes and their inception, which analysts believe to be around the middle of next year. Chinas Manufacturing numbers also
entered the market lower than expected at 50.8. This is another decline from the highs in July at 51.7; the reaction in the market
was relatively subdued with no large moves worthy of mention. Both S&P 500 and EURUSD strategies were filled, the S&P during
yesterdays afternoon session and the EURUSD achieved second target during the US afternoon trading session.
Todays View
For the afternoon ahead we have US inflation for October due at 1330. This is expected at 1.60% on the annual figure with a
previous number of 1.70%. Any numbers outside the range are likely to drive prices so please remain aware of the risks of trading
around this time. This move will also be affected by the Feds monetary policy stance and also last nights commentary on lower
than target inflation just as bad as inflation above 2.0%. As usual we also have the weekly jobs report, expected at 284k. A further
reading below the 300k handle on Initial Jobless claims will aid the dollar to strengthen as rate hike speculations are priced in. We
also have Manufacturing PMI due at 1445 with 56.3 as the expected month on month headline figure. Existing Home sales and
Philadelphia Fed are also due at 3pm, with 18.5 expected on the index and 5.15m on the housing numbers. The Existing Home
Sales are arguably more important as housing are one of the Feds indicators for gauging rate hikes so this will hold more weight.
Do take into account all numbers however and trade accordingly. Please also be aware that as we move into the winter months
there is usually a rush to complete on mortgage exchanges so this could also come into play. It is therefore likely that the home
sales numbers are likely to be higher in both December and January as these numbers look back, however we are bullish on this
number today. As equities have sold off nicely during the European session we are happy to maintain our bullish outlook at
stronger levels. We are looking for dollar strength on the back of positive US data sets, especially housing. We are expecting
Tnotes to move inversely with equities and will be looking for a conservative entry short. Crude is likely to follow the trend lower
and again we are following the best technical entry with the direction here.
Alternative View
Misses on US data, especially housing and CPI this afternoon, are likely to invalidate the EURUSD strategy. Continued
developments from Fed Speakers should be carefully analysed in the wake of yesterdays FOMC minutes.

Key Headlines
Market Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish

French and German Manufacturing PMI come in

lower than expected

China Manufacturing misses on headline

FOMC minutes broadly neutral with some hawkish

undertones

Japanese Manufacturing misses on headline

Major Data Releases

Data

Expected

View

US CPI YoY

1.60%

In-line/ higher

284k

In-line/lower

Manufacturing PMI

56.3

In-line/ higher

Philadelphia Fed

18.5

In/line

Existing Home Sales

5.15m

Higher

Initial Jobless Claims

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E-Mini S&P 500 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

Strategy

Long

Entry

2026.75

1st Target

2035.75

2nd Target

2043.75

Stop

2025.25

Key Levels

Comments

2054.00

All Time High

2050.50

Ydays High

2045.00

Pivot

2043.75

High of 13th

2037.75

Ydays low

2032.25

S2

2026.75

S3, Double bottom 12th & 13th

2025.25

Low of 17th

25th

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

Strategy

Long

Entry

4195.75

1st Target

4223.00

2nd Target

4236.00

Stop

4191.50

Key Levels

Comments

4248.75

14 year high

4236.00

Fed minutes high

4227.00

High of 13th

4223.00

Pivot

4204.25

Yday Low

4203.25

S1

4195.75

Low of 14th

4195.50

Double bottom 13th & 17th

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

EURUSD (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

Strategy

Short

Entry

1.2573

1st Target

1.2548

2nd Target

1.2512

Stop

1.2581

Key Levels

Comments

1.2605

Ydays high

1.2603

R1

1.2600

Handle resistance

1.2581

High of 17th

1.2573

Ydays morning high

1.2558

Pivot

1.2512

S1

1.2506

Todays low

25th

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS INCURRED IN

CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.
AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS WHATSOEVER REGARDING
PAST OR FUTURE PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

US 10yr T-Notes (Dec14) Futures: 20th November 2014

Strategy

Short

Entry

127.000

1st Target

126.235

2nd Target

126.140

Stop

127.015

Key Levels

Comments

127.015

R3

127.000

16th High

126.280

R2

126.235

High of 18th

126.140

Pivot

126.085

17th Low

126.055

14th Low

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

Nymex WTI Crude Oil (Jan15) Futures: 20th November 2014

Strategy

Short

Entry

75.20

1st Target

74.57

2nd Target

73.92

Stop

75.42

Key Levels

Comments

76.00

Handle Resistance

75.42

Ydays high

75.20

Pivot

75.00

Handle Resistance

74.56

Pivot

74.00

Handle Support

73.92

Ydays low

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN TRADING. A LOSS

INCURRED IN CONNECTION WITH FUTURES TRADING CAN
BE SIGNIFICANT. AMPLIFY TRADING MAKES NO CLAIMS
WHATSOEVER
REGARDING
PAST
OR
FUTURE
PERFORMANCE. ANY STRATEGY IS FOR EDUCATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY
Please see page 5 for more information

www.amplifytrading.com

Disclaimer

Benjamin Yip
Senior Analyst
Email: ben.yip@amplifytrading.com
William De Lucy
Managing Director
Email: w.delucy@amplifytrading.com
Piers Curran
Head of Trading
Email: piers.curran@amplifytrading.com
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