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Balance of Payment-Eco 2nd Sem Project
Balance of Payment-Eco 2nd Sem Project
Causes of BOP
Crisis in India's BoP caused by several factors. The major causes are:
1. Ever Expanding Trade Gap:
Trade deficit is the result of trade gap, i.e., gap due to a big rise in imports against a
small growth in exports of the country over the years.
As a matter of fact, eighties onwards country's expenditure on imports has risen at
an alarming rates due to the following reasons:
(i) Import Liberalisation:
Due to import liberalisation during the eighties there has been a quantum jump in
imports of capital goods and modern technology. The new economic and trade
policies of 1991 have favoured a further liberalisation of imports.
(ii) Increase in Import Intensity:
The pattern of industrial development and growth of national income during the
seventh plan led to a higher propensity to import. There has been a growth in
import demand for consumer durables.
(iii) Import of Oil:
Petroleum oil and lubricants (POL) has been the single most important item in
India's import bill. During seventies and eighties constituted nearly one-third of
total imports of the country.
(iv) Import of Essential Items:
Due to scarcity created by drought conditions, time to time, the country had to
import essential items such as cereals and edible oils on a large scale.
(v) Rising Prices of Imports:
The country's import bill has been rising due to rising prices of goods in.
international markets. Especially, oil prices have been arbitrarily hiked by the oil
supplying countries.
(vi) Deterioration in the Exchange Rate of Rupee:
The external value of rupee in term of US dollar has continuously depreciated over
the years. Rupee was devalued in 1991. As a result, the country had to pay high
prices of imports in rupee terms.
Recently to ease the situation, the government has resorted to external commercial
borrowings, assistance from IMF and MRI deposits, invitation to foreign capital
and encouragement to direct foreign investment.
India's balance of payment position was highly precarious in 1990-91. The country
was caught in a vicious circle of low reserves, low credit rating and poor capacity
to raise resources. The situation was no better in the beginning of 1991-92. To deal
with the problem the government had to compress imports and also to find, sources
of exceptional financing to meet the current account deficit.
Meaning of Disequilibrium in Balance of Payment ?
Though the credit and debit are written balanced in the balance of payment
account, it may not remain balanced always. Very often, debit exceeds credit or the
credit exceeds debit causing an imbalance in the balance of payment account. Such
an imbalance is called the disequilibrium. Disequilibrium may take place either in
the form of deficit or in the form of surplus.
Disequilibrium of Deficit arises when our receipts from the foreigners fall below
our payment to foreigners.
Disequilibrium of Surplus arises when the receipts of the country exceed its
payments.
square Causes of Disequilibrium in Balance of Payment ?
1. Population Growth
Most countries experience an increase in the population and in some like India and
China the population is not only large but increases at a faster rate. To meet their
needs, imports become essential and the quantity of imports may increase as
population increases.
2. Development Programmes
Developing countries which have embarked upon planned development
programmes require to import capital goods, some raw materials which are not
available at home and highly skilled and specialized manpower. Since development
is a continuous process, imports of these items continue for the long time landing
these countries in a balance of payment deficit.
3. Demonstration Effect
When the people in the less developed countries imitate the consumption pattern of
the people in the developed countries, their import will increase. Their export may
remain constant or decline causing disequilibrium in the balance of payments.
4. Natural Factors
Natural calamities such as the failure of rains or the coming floods may easily
cause disequilibrium in the balance of payments by adversely affecting agriculture
and industrial production in the country. The exports may decline while the imports
may go up causing a discrepancy in the country's balance of payments.
5. Cyclical Fluctuations
Business fluctuations introduced by the operations of the trade cycles may also
cause disequilibrium in the country's balance of payments.
6. Inflation
An increase in income and price level owing to rapid economic development in
developing countries, will increase imports and reduce exports causing a deficit in
balance of payments.
7. Poor Marketing Strategies
The superior marketing of the developed countries have increased their surplus.
The poor marketing facilities of the developing countries have pushed them into
huge deficits.
8. Flight Of Capital
Due to speculative reasons, countries may lose foreign exchange or gold stocks
People in developing countries may also shift their capital to developed countries
to safeguard against political uncertainties. These capital movements adversely
affect the balance of payments position.
9. Globalisation
Due to globalisation there has been more liberal and open atmosphere for
international movement of goods, services and capital. Competition has been
increased due to the globalisation of international economic relations. The
emerging new global economic order has brought in certain problems for some
countries which have resulted in the balance of payments disequilibrium.
How to correct the adverse Balance of Payment ?
Solution to correct balance of payment disequilibrium lies in earning moreforeign
exchange through additional exports or reducing imports. Quantitative changes
in exports and imports require policy changes. Such policy measures are in the
form of monetary, fiscal and non-monetary measures
Monetary Measures for Correcting the BoP
The monetary methods for correcting disequilibrium in the balance ofpayment are
as follows :1. Deflation
Deflation means falling prices. Deflation has been used as a measure to
correct deficit disequilibrium. A country faces deficit when its imports exceeds
exports.
Deflation is brought through monetary measures like bank rate policy, open market
operations, etc or through fiscal measures like higher taxation, reduction in public
expenditure, etc. Deflation would make our items cheaper in foreign market
resulting a rise in our exports. At the same time the demands for imports fall due to
higher taxation and reduced income. This would built a favourable atmosphere in
the balance of payment position. However Deflation can be successful when the
exchange rate remains fixed.
2. Exchange Depreciation
Exchange depreciation means decline in the rate of exchange of domestic currency
in terms of foreign currency. This device implies that a country has adopted a
flexible exchange rate policy.
Exchange depreciation will stimulate exports and reduce imports because exports
will become cheaper and imports costlier. Hence, a favourable balance of payments
would emerge to pay off the deficit.
3. Devaluation
Devaluation refers to deliberate attempt made by monetary authorities to bring
down the value of home currency against foreign currency. While depreciation is a
spontaneous fall due to interactions of market forces, devaluation is official act
enforced by the monetary authority. Generally the international monetary fund
advocates the policy of devaluation as a corrective measure of disequilibrium for
the countries facing adverse balance of payment position.
When devaluation is effected, the value of home currency goes down against
foreign currency, After such a change our goods becomes cheap in foreign market.
This is because, after devaluation, dollar is exchanged for more Indian currencies
which push up the demand for exports. At the same time, imports become costlier
as Indians have to pay more currencies to obtain one dollar. Thus demand for
imports is reduced.
Generally devaluation is resorted to where there is serious adverse balance of
payment problem.
4. Exchange Control
It is an extreme step taken by the monetary authority to enjoy complete control
over the exchange dealings. Under such a measure, the central bank directs all
exporters to surrender their foreign exchange to the central authority. Thus it leads
to concentration of exchange reserves in the hands of central authority. At the same
time, the supply of foreign exchange is restricted only for essential goods. It can
only help controlling situation from turning worse. In short it is only a temporary
measure and not permanent remedy.
Non-Monetary Measures for Correcting the BoP
A deficit country along with Monetary measures may adopt the following nonmonetary measures too which will either restrict imports or promote exports.
1. Tariffs
Tariffs are duties (taxes) imposed on imports. When tariffs are imposed, the prices
of imports would increase to the extent of tariff. The increased prices will reduced
the demand for imported goods and at the same time induce domestic producers to
produce more of import substitutes. Non-essential imports can be drastically
reduced by imposing a very high rate of tariff.
2. Quotas
Under the quota system, the government may fix and permit the maximum quantity
or value of a commodity to be imported during a given period. By restricting
imports through the quota system, the deficit is reduced and the balance of
payments position is improved.
3. Export Promotion
The government can adopt export promotion measures to correct disequilibrium in
the balance of payments. This includes substitutes, tax concessions to exporters,
marketing facilities, credit and incentives to exporters, etc.
The government may also help to promote export through exhibition, trade fairs;
conducting marketing research & by providing the required administrative and
diplomatic help to tap the potential markets.
4. Import Substitution
A country may resort to import substitution to reduce the volume of imports and
make it self-reliant. Fiscal and monetary measures may be adopted to encourage
industries producing import substitutes. Industries which produce import
substitutes require special attention in the form of various concessions, which
include tax concession, technical assistance, subsidies, providing scarce inputs, etc.
Non-monetary methods are more effective than monetary methods and are
normally applicable in correcting an adverse balance of payments.
The causes and consequences of a deficit on the current account of a balance
of payments
A deficit occurs when more money is leaving the country than coming in. This is
when imports of goods and services as well as income and transfer payments
abroad exceed exports and income and transfer payments coming in to the country.
A deficit can arise out of two reasons, one is that the countrys residents are buying
more abroad than overseas residents have spent on the countrys products. This
may be due to a changing exchange rate.
Another cause for a deficit on the trade of goods and services is changes in income.
If people in the UK have an increase in income, they can afford to buy more goods,
some of which may be imports. Similarly, if the US saw a fall in general income
levels, they will buy less products which will decrease imports.
Structural problems can also lead to a deficit in trades in goods and services. This
is where domestic firms are producing poor quality goods and are inefficient. If
this is the case, demand is likely to fall and a deficit will persist.
If there has been a large transfer of income abroad, this will lead to a current
account deficit. A deficit will decrease aggregate demand and lead to a contraction
along aggregate supply. This will lower an economys output, increase
unemployment but reduce the general price level. A rise in the deficit may also
increase international borrowing as well as lead to a fall on the exchange rate.
If firms produce high quality products which match consumer demand, then this
will also contribute to the current account surplus.
A surplus however may exist when there is a recession two consecutive quarters
of negative growth. Firms may find difficulty selling products domestically so will
compete vigorously in export markets instead.
A strong inflow of income has the consequence of increasing the money supply.
Banks have more money to lend and this creates a multiplier effect. More
investment from banks can occur which means aggregate demand will increase and
this will have the additional effect of pushing up the exchange rate.
bibliography
Balance of Payments- Paul Madson
International Financial Management- P G Apte
International Economics- Lindert
International Economics- Francis Chernuliam
International Economics- C P Kindelberger
International Economics- Geoffrey Reed
International Economics- H G Mannur
conclusion
You now see that the current account and the capital account are mirror images. A
debit must have a source so for every debit there is a credit. Most important is that
the balance of payments must equal zero if you have recorded your debits and
credits correctly. The Bureau of Economic Analysis collects the balance of
payments data.