Product: THEF PubDate: 26-05-2009 Zone: Chennai Edition: CITY Page: Back_Pg User: cosjh Time: 05-25-2009 13:08

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8 HOW INDIA
ISSUES
VOTED THE HINDU TUESDAY, MAY 26, 2009
CHENNAI

To most, leadership Issueless election?

Not for the voter, who has many concerns

did not matter I

n contrast to 2004,
when the campaign
was focused around
the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) slogan of ‘Shin-
ing India’ and the Congress
slogan of ‘aam aadmi’, this
Only one in six voters said leadership determined their voting choice election seemed issueless —
at least to the media. The
Household conditions dress these concerns. When
specifically asked about the
Remained the same 35 important tasks of the go-
Improved 46 vernment for the next 10
years, about a third men-
Worsened 11 tioned secure employment,
and a fifth wanted high lev-
Household’s prospects els of economic growth. It is
clear that the economy
Will improve 55

A
t the starting point of
the election cam-
paign, leadership was
seen as a weak point
for the Congress. There was
no doubt that Congress pres-
ident Sonia Gandhi was the
most popular leader in the
country, but it was not clear
whether she could pass on
her goodwill to Manmohan
Singh. In fact, the Bharatiya
Janata Party’s electoral
strategy was focused on
making the most of this per-
ceived weakness. Hence the
personal attacks on the
Prime Minister by L.K. Ad-
vani and the invocation that
the country needs a strong
leader. The Congress strate-
gy of projecting a troika of
Ms. Gandhi, Dr. Singh and
Rahul Gandhi was seen as an
attempt to make the most of a
weakness. As the results
started pouring in, suddenly
this weakness was seen as a
strength and the victory attri-
buted to such things as Dr.
Singh’s charm and the ‘Rahul
factor.’
The truth is that leadership
was not as much of a handicap
for the Congress as it was
made out to be. The leader-
ship ratings tracked by the
CSDS over the last decade or
so show that the departure of
Atal Bihari Vajpayee from ac-
tive politics left a leadership
vacuum that could not be
filled by any BJP leader. Ms.
Gandhi’s rating went up after
her decision to renounce the
Prime Minister’s position.
Dr. Singh’s ratings also regis-
tered a modest rise after his
elevation as Prime Minister.
But at the starting point of
the election race, Mr. Adva-
ni’s popularity (10 per cent of
Manmohan Singh ahead in PM race
Manmohan Singh Sonia Gandhi L.K.Advani Rahul Gandhi
1998 0 16
1999 1 27
2004 1 27
August 2006 12 28
January 2007 11 28
September 2007 10 22
January 2009 12 20
May 2009 17 15
Source: NES 2009
All figures in per cent. Rest named other leaders or had no opinion.
Weighted data.
Question: After this election, who would you prefer as the next Prime Minister
of India?
voters named him as their Singh, Mr. Advani and Ms.
preferred Prime Minister) Mayawati, 35 per cent chose
was not even a third of Mr. the sitting Prime Minister
Vajpayee’s (38 per cent in against 21 per cent for the PM-
2004). He also trailed behind in-waiting. Besides, the pro-
Ms. Gandhi and Dr. Singh in jection of Mr. Advani as prime
this respect. Mr. Advani was ministerial candidate in this
taking a gamble in trying to election and Narendra Modi
turn the election into a presi- as a standby in future con-
dential race. fused voters.
By the end of the campaign, This does not mean that Dr.
greater exposure for Mr. Ad- Singh or Mr. Gandhi won the
vani had pushed his rating up election for the Congress. The
to 14 per cent, but a clear pro- impact of the former on this
jection of Dr. Singh as the next election was at best modest.
Prime Minister meant that his He enjoys higher popularity
ratings too soared to 17 per ratings in Punjab (55 per
cent. Add Ms. Gandhi’s 15 per cent), Kerala (37 per cent), As-
cent and Mr. Gandhi’s six per sam (32 per cent), Delhi (31
cent and the total popularity per cent), Haryana (28 per
of the Congress troika is about cent), Tamil Nadu (28 per
the same as that of Mr. Vaj- cent), Rajasthan (28 per cent)
payee at the height of his pop- and Jammu and Kashmir (27
ularity. The BJP tried to per cent). Mr. Advani was a
attack the presence of three more popular choice for
leaders at the top as a political Prime Minister in the BJP-
joke, if not a fraud. But ordi- dominated States such as
nary people couldn’t have Jharkhand (48 per cent), Hi-
cared less. When asked direct- machal Pradesh (36 per cent),
ly to choose between Dr. Orissa (33 per cent), Karnata-
2 -
1 -
1 1
2 2
2 2
3 3
10 6 Prem Kumar Dhumal
14 6 B.S. Yeddyurappa
ka (32 per cent), and Madhya
Pradesh (27 per cent).
Personal popularity
played a role at the State level
too. In many States, the pop-
ularity or otherwise of the
Chief Minister was vital. In
this respect, Chief Minister
Naveen Patnaik in Orissa was
the most popular followed by
Nitish Kumar in Bihar. More
than six out of 10 voters in
Orissa and Bihar preferred
Mr. Patnaik and Mr. Kumar as
Chief Minister. The high pop-
ularity ratings of Mr. Patnaik
coupled with the satisfaction
of people with the State go-
vernment’s performance
translated into votes, helping
the Biju Janata Dal to romp
home in the Assembly elec-
tion and get a major slice of
the Lok Sabha seats. Along
with the BJP, Mr. Kumar’s
party won 32 out of the 40 Lok
Sabha seats in Bihar. Other
Chief Ministers who helped
their party include Shivraj
Singh Chauhan, Sheila Dixit,
Most popular CM
Naveen Patnaik 63
Nitish Kumar 61
Shivraj Singh Chauhan 50
Sheila Dikshit 49
Narendra Modi 45
40
Raman Singh
Ashok Gehlot 40
39
33
Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee 30
B.C. Khanduri 30
Mayawati 27
Parkash Singh Badal 27
Omar Abdullah 18
Source: NES 2009.
Weighted data file.
All figures in per cent of the
respondents in the respective State.
Question: After this election who
would you prefer as the next
Chief Minister of [State name]?
(Do not offer any name)
Narendra Modi, Raman
Singh, Ashok Gehlot and
Prem Kumar Dhumal.
Much of the media coverage
in this election was focused on
some leaders on the assump-
tion that electoral choices
were driven by love or hate for
them. The evidence of Nation-
al Election Study 2009 invites
us to rethink this assumption.
Only one out of every six vot-
ers said that ‘party leadership’
was the consideration that
dominated their vote. The
number is not insignificant,
and is perhaps higher than in
the past, but it comes nowhere
close to popular assumptions
about how much leaders influ-
ence voting behaviour.
parties claimed that they
had raised important is-
sues. The evidence gathered
by the National Election
Study shows that some of
the high-profile issues had
limited relevance to the
voter.
The United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government
had staked its existence on
the issue of Indo-U.S. nu-
clear deal and was criticised
by the Left for its pro-U.S.
foreign policy and the loss
of strategic autonomy. Only
two-fifths of the voters re-
ported that they had heard
of the nuclear deal.
The BJP saw an opportu-
nity to push the govern-
ment to the wall over the
terrorist attack in Mumbai.
For the BJP, terrorism was
the top issue. Its manifesto
opened with an attack on
the Congress for its failure
to combat terrorism. While
nearly two-thirds of the re-
spondents knew about the
terrorist attack on Mumbai,
terrorism was not an issue
that was going to influence
many of them into voting
against the Congress and its
allies. About 41 per cent of
the voters who had heard
about the Mumbai attacks
were satisfied with the mea-
sures taken by the govern-
ment to curb terrorism
after the Mumbai attacks.
Apart from the nuclear
deal and the terrorist at-
tack, manifestos talked
about other issues such as
the Ram Setu controversy,
farmers’ suicides, price rise,
economic slowdown, and
OBC reservations.
The evidence shows that
apart from those that relat-
matters — not only for
those bothered about the
Will worsen 07
18
Will remain the same
health of the stock ex-
change, but for the common
people too.
Pending problems The survey showed that
economic problems not-
Drinking Water 18 withstanding, a large sec-
Unemployment 13 tion believes their
condition had improved
Electricity 9 over the last few years, and
Price Rise 8 that people definitely ex-
Poverty 7 pect this to improve further
in the near future.
Road Transport 6 However, this does not
Terrorism 3 mean there is an uncritical
endorsement of the policies
Education (School-College) 2 of the government. Over 36
Housing 2 per cent believe that the ec-
onomic policies of the UPA
All figures in per cent
benefited only the rich and
Rest- No opinion
another small section of
ed to economic conditions, eight per cent thinks that
most issues had little reso- these policies have not ben-
nance with the public. A efited anyone. Such assess-
majority had heard about ments of economic policy
the terrorist attacks (64 per are related to voting pat-
cent) and farmers’ suicides terns. The BJP was unable
(53 per cent), but very few to attract these dissatisfied
had heard about OBC reser- voters. Most of those crit-
vations (43 per cent), and ical of the UPA govern-
the Ram Setu controversy ment’s economic policies
(38 per cent). chose to vote for various re-
The National Election gional parties.
Study also asked people to The new government has
mention those problems its job cut out. There is a
they would like the govern- catch though: nearly 70 per
ment to address. The issues cent of voters feel that
talked about by parties and elected representatives
the elite seem to be at varia- care little for their concerns
nce with the voters’ con- and problems. Half the re-
cerns. People want the spondents feel that in terms
government to improve in- of policies and issues, there
frastructure — drinking wa- is little or no difference be-
ter tops the list of problems tween parties. This means
faced by people followed by that while the electorate is
electricity, hospitals and full of hope and expecta-
roads. People are con- tion, there is an undercur-
cerned about poverty, un- rent of unease about the
employment, food and available choices and scep-
shelter. They want parties ticism about those who run
and governments to ad- the government.

No barriers to participation
Despite reports of voter apathy, turnout at reasonably healthy level

W
ith over 417 million people nally visited by a party worker or can-
voting, India once again Social participation Robust participation in election activities vasser. Indeed, the campaign
was witness to the largest Turnout Activities 1971 1999 2004 2009 managed to penetrate all sections of
exercise in democratic de- Election Indian society, and party workers can-
cision-making anywhere in the world. Upper castes 56 meetings 12 23 20 19 vassed the young (58 per cent) and the
And despite widespread media con- Processions/ old (56 per cent), the poorly educated
cerns about voter apathy, the turnout
Peasant proprietors 62 (55 per cent) and the well educated
rallies 3 13 14 13
of 58.4 per cent was relatively Upper OBCs 59 Source: NES 2009. Weighted data.
(60 per cent), those living in rural ar-
healthy, and broadly in line with the eas (56 per cent) and urban areas (58
last five or six elections which have all Lower OBCs 58 Turnout over the years per cent) and people from all castes
been around the 60 per cent mark. Dalits 59 70 and communities. During the cam-
Indeed, of the 15 Lok Sabha elections paign, politicians also travelled the
Turnout (%)

since 1952, turnout this time fell STs 60 60 length and breadth of the country to
within the middle band, with six elec- speak to large numbers of people at
tions registering a higher level and Muslims 59 50
various meetings and rallies. Once
eight lower. There was also consider- Others 53 40
2 7 2 7 1 7 0 5 9 1 6 8 9 4 9
again, large numbers attended these
able deviation on a State-by-State ba- 195 195 196 196 197 197 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 200 200 events, with 19 per cent attending an
Election year
sis. States such as West Bengal, All figures in per cent election meeting and 13 per cent tak-
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pra- per cent. States such as Jammu and interested at all in the election cam- ing part in a procession or rally. There
desh recorded very high levels of par- Kashmir, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Guj- paign, but this number has consistent- is not much change in this respect
ticipation, with turnouts of over 70 arat and Rajasthan were considerably ly fallen. Only 10 per cent said they since 2004.
lower, with turnout below 50 per cent. were interested a great deal, though Although a gender gap in turnout
Turnout trends Among the States, Bihar stands out this figure is much the same as in pre- has been reported in previous elec-
with a precipitous drop of 13 percent- vious years. The proportion of those tions, once again the evidence sug-
State Turnout Change from age points from 2004. In contrast, in who take ‘some interest’ has steadily gests that this continues to get
2009 2004 Tamil Nadu there was a sharp increase risen to reach 32 per cent this time. narrower with each election, with just
West Bengal 81.3 3.3 of the same magnitude. But with the The level of enthusiasm however, did four percentage points separating
exception of some States, the turnout not translate into voting, and those men and women in 2009 (60 per cent
Kerala 73.3 1.8 did not change from 2004 by more who were very interested in the cam- vs 56 per cent). Similarly, there is not
Tamil Nadu 73.0 12.2 than a few percentage points in most paign were only somewhat more likely much variation in propensity to vote
cases. to vote than those who were not (67 by age. The turnout rate among people
Andhra Pradesh 72.6 2.7 The National Election Study 2009 per cent versus 56 per cent). under 25 (55 per cent) is a fraction
Punjab 69.8 8.2 offers some insights into the reasons However, those with a keen politi- lower than among older people (58 per
Assam 69.5 0.4 behind why people did not vote. Most- cal interest were much more likely cent). Nor is turnout the preserve of
ly people cite circumstantial reasons, than those with no interest to partici- the well educated. Turnout among
Haryana 67.4 1.7 such as being out of station (25 per pate in a wide range of election related college educated (60 per cent) is the
Orissa 65.3 -0.7 cent) or having been unwell (14 per activities such as attending campaign same as those educated up to primary
cent). In some cases, people were un- meetings (51 per cent vs. five per cent), level (60 per cent), and only a fraction
Karnataka 63.3 -1.6 able to vote because they did not have participating in rallies (44 per cent vs. higher than those who are not literate
Delhi 51.8 4.7 the necessary identification (10 per 2 per cent), and taking part in door-to- (55 per cent). And lastly, despite sharp
Madhya Pradesh 51.2 3.1 cent). But on the whole, the lack of door canvassing (44 per cent vs. three divisions between different caste-
interest was not a major factor, with per cent). Political interest therefore communities in terms of which party
Maharashtra 50.7 -3.7 just six per cent citing it as a reason for appears much better able to explain they support, there are only minor dif-
Rajasthan 48.4 -1.5 not voting. Thirty five per cent of the depth of participation than the ferences between them in terms of
those who did not vote were unable to simple act of voting. whether they vote or not. Muslims (59
Gujarat 47.8 2.6 provide a reason. These figures are Indeed, the scope of the election per cent), ST (60 per cent) and SC (59
Uttar Pradesh 47.8 -0.4 likely to understate the impact of sea- campaign to reach out to voters is so- per cent) are a shade more involved in
sonal migration since migrants are mething truly remarkable. Overall, the electoral process than upper
Bihar 44.5 -13.4 unlikely to be available to be inter- the political parties managed to con- castes (56 per cent) and OBCs (58 per
Jammu & Kashmir 39.7 4.5 viewed for a post-poll survey. tact a substantial proportion of the In- cent). On the whole these differences
Figures for turnout are in per cent, change from On average, over half the popula- dian electorate. Over half of the are minor, and speak of a fairly well
2004 is in percentage points. tion (58 per cent) said they were not population (57 per cent) were perso- politically integrated citizenry.

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