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Legislature Revenue Forecast
Legislature Revenue Forecast
Legislature Revenue Forecast
02000
2015-17 BIENNIUM REVENUE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS GENERAL FUND AND OIL TAX COLLECTIONS
This memorandum provides information on proposed revisions to estimated general fund and oil and gas tax
revenue collections and allocations for the 2013-15 and 2015-17 bienniums. The assumptions are based on
discussions with representatives of the Tax Department, the Oil and Gas Division of the Industrial Commission,
and the oil and gas industry.
May 2013
Legislative Estimate
$2,472,947,500
323,123,500
797,654,355
377,739,645
73,352,976
0
57,953,000
133,834,000
166,166,000
39,300,000
8,174,696
19,142,000
19,000,000
32,666,716
74,394,098
881,384,560
December 2014
Revenue Forecast
$2,535,362,100
289,315,958
951,143,203
481,516,247
84,927,055
(4,871,446)
59,567,291
146,071,108
153,928,892
38,875,236
7,097,793
18,335,019
36,792,104
19,930,091
81,912,118
885,764,114
$5,476,833,046
$5,785,666,883
January 2015
January 2015 to
Revised Revenue
December 2014
Forecast
Increase (Decrease)
$2,448,362,100
($87,000,000)
289,315,958
0
921,143,203
(30,000,000)
468,516,247
(13,000,000)
84,927,055
0
(4,871,446)
0
59,567,291
0
146,071,108
0
153,928,892
0
38,875,236
0
7,097,793
0
18,335,019
0
36,792,104
0
19,930,091
0
81,912,118
0
885,764,114
0
$5,655,666,883
($130,000,000)
January 2015
January 2015 to
Revised Revenue
December 2014
Forecast
Increase (Decrease)
$562,824,955
($130,000,000)
$583,545,799
$0
$489,150,341
($83,120,000)
$1,189,661,650
($195,920,000)
January 2015
15.9498.02000
$55 trigger price provisions effective for oil production between February 2015 and May 2015, resulting in
an estimated total reduction of $46 million to oil extraction tax collections for the 2013-15 biennium.
Legacy fund
Three Affiliated Tribes
Oil and gas research fund
Oil and gas impact grant fund
Political subdivisions
Abandoned well reclamation fund
North Dakota outdoor heritage fund
Foundation aid stabilization fund
Common schools trust fund
Resources trust fund
General fund
Property tax relief sustainability fund
Strategic investment and improvements fund
State disaster fund
Total allocations
May 2013
January 2015
December 2014
Legislative
Revised Revenue
Estimate
Revenue Forecast
Forecast
$1,713,260,000
$2,190,640,000
$1,906,300,000
272,400,000
516,380,000
484,880,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
240,000,000
240,000,000
240,000,000
592,890,000
719,330,000
657,670,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
17,620,000
21,210,000
18,700,000
282,160,000
332,080,000
285,670,000
282,160,000
332,080,000
285,670,000
564,320,000
664,170,000
571,350,000
300,000,000
300,000,000
300,000,000
341,790,000
341,790,000
341,790,000
633,230,000
1,100,860,000
904,940,000
22,000,000
22,000,000
22,000,000
$5,281,830,000
$6,800,540,000
$6,038,970,000
January 2015 to
December 2014
Increase
(Decrease)
($284,340,000)
(31,500,000)
0
0
(61,660,000)
0
(2,510,000)
(46,410,000)
(46,410,000)
(92,820,000)
0
0
(195,920,000)
0
($761,570,000)
$3,028,960,000
329,314,000
973,379,000
525,714,000
91,897,243
0
61,560,000
70,000,000
230,000,000
39,578,000
7,106,250
19,188,000
38,535,944
21,008,000
87,888,938
26,347,696
$2,675,960,000
329,314,000
834,379,000
467,714,000
91,897,243
0
61,560,000
70,000,000
230,000,000
39,578,000
7,106,250
19,188,000
38,535,944
21,008,000
87,888,938
26,347,696
Increase (Decrease)
($353,000,000)
0
(139,000,000)
(58,000,000)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$5,550,477,071
$5,000,477,071
($550,000,000)
January 2015
15.9498.02000
Increase (Decrease)
Legacy fund
Three Affiliated Tribes
Oil and gas research fund
Oil and gas impact grant fund
Political subdivisions
Abandoned well reclamation fund
North Dakota outdoor heritage fund
Foundation aid stabilization fund
Common schools trust fund
Resources trust fund
General fund
Property tax relief sustainability fund
Strategic investment and improvements fund
State disaster fund
$2,806,960,000
607,880,000
10,000,000
240,000,000
839,120,000
10,000,000
26,980,000
409,930,000
409,930,000
819,870,000
300,000,000
341,790,000
1,477,870,000
22,000,000
$1,326,690,000
314,050,000
10,000,000
240,000,000
574,530,000
10,000,000
16,720,000
172,760,000
172,760,000
345,520,000
300,000,000
341,790,000
421,320,000
22,000,000
($1,480,270,000)
(293,830,000)
0
0
(264,590,000)
0
(10,260,000)
(237,170,000)
(237,170,000)
(474,350,000)
0
0
(1,056,550,000)
0
Total allocations
$8,322,330,000
$4,268,140,000
($4,054,190,000)
NOTE: The allocation amounts reflected in these schedules are estimates. The actual amounts for the
2013-15 and 2015-17 bienniums may differ significantly from these amounts based on actual oil price and oil
production.
($130,000,000)1
Total adjustments
1
($550,000,000)
The amount shown for the total adjustment to 2013-15 biennium general fund revenues reflects the adjustment to the July 1, 2015,
general fund beginning balance as shown below.
July 1, 2015, Balance
$692,824,955
($130,000,000)
$562,824,955
2013-15 Biennium
$6,800,540,000
6,038,970,000
2015-17 Biennium
$8,322,330,000
4,268,140,000
($761,570,000)
($4,054,190,000)
January 2015
15.9498.02000
($130,000,000)
($550,000,000)
($680,000,000)
1
($761,570,000)
($4,054,190,000)
($4,815,760,000)
The adjustments to oil and gas tax revenue collections are based on the following estimated oil prices, oil production, and trigger
price provisions for the remainder of 2013-15 biennium and for the entire 2015-17 biennium:
Oil prices
Average daily oil production
$55.00 trigger price provisions effective (production months)
$52.59 trigger price provisions effective (production months)
2013-15 Biennium
$42 per barrel
1.18 million to 1.2 million barrels
February to May 2015
N/A
2015-17 Biennium
$45 to $65 per barrel
1.2 million barrels
N/A
June 2015 to March 2016
January 2015