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Under Armour

Footwear and Apparel

Camilo Lyon | Canaccord Genuity Inc. (US) | CLyon@canaccordgenuity.com | 212.849.3978


Pallav Saini | Canaccord Genuity Inc. (US) | psaini@canaccordgenuity.com | 212.389.8054

US Equity Research
5 February 2015

Raising Target Price

BUY
unchanged

Impressive Q4 sales beat; bold acquisitions create


formidable user base; reiterate BUY, new $97 PT

PRICE TARGET US$97.00


from US$93.00
Price (5-Feb)
US$73.57
Ticker
UA-NYSE

52-Week Range (US$):


Shares Out. (M) :
Market Cap (US$M):
FYE Dec
Sales (US$M)
Previous
P/Sales (x)

2014A

2015E

2016E

3,084
3,043
5.2

3,818
3,756
4.2

4,735
3.4

0.95
0.94
77.1

1.09
1.20
67.7

1.53
48.2

EPS (US$)
Previous
P/E (x)
Quarterly Sales
2014A
2015E
2016E
Quarterly EPS
2014A
2015E
2016E

45.05 - 73.95
218.0
16,037

Q1
641.6
803.0
1,016

Q2
609.7
756.9
950.8

Q3
937.9
1,168
1,438

Q4
895.2
1,090
1,330

Q1
0.06
0.04
0.13

Q2
0.08
0.08
0.18

Q3
0.41
0.49
0.64

Q4
0.40
0.46
0.59

80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

May-14

Mar-14

40

UA
S&P500(rebased)
Source:FactSet

Under Armour is a leading manufacturer of athletic apparel,


footwear, and accessories, selling its products through
wholesalers, factory outlet stores, and online.

Investment recommendation
UA reported strong 4Q EPS of 40c vs. our consensus estimate of 39c. Relative to
our model, the beat was driven by impressive sales growth (+2c) and resulting SG&A
leverage (+1c), partially offset by lower gross margin (-2c). Revenue growth of 31% vs.
our 25% estimate was superb as it proves UA can sustain the accelerated momentum
it began in 4Q13 despite a tough 35% growth comparison. As we previewed, all parts
of the business performed well in Q4 as footwear (+55% vs. our 30% est.), apparel
(+30% vs. our 25% est.) and accessories (+22% vs.our 14% est.) contributed to the
excellent results. Gross margin of 49.9% was 85bps below our estimate due to higher
mix of international (-90bps), FX (-20bps), and higher air freight (20bps). All in, this was
a solid quarter that serves as evidence of UA's ability to execute and take share even in a
challenging and volatile environment.
Separately, UA announced the acquisition of two companies that add category breadth
(nutrition) and geographic reach (Europe) to its Connected Fitness ecosystem. With
the acquisition of MyFitnessPal ($475M) and Endomondo ($85M), UA has amassed
the world's largest Connected Fitness user platform with over 120M members. The
opportunity to speak to, engage, advise, and track data for 120M people who actively
participate in a form of athletic activity cannot be understated. This is a bold and
aggressive direction UA is taking to address the ever-changing consumption habits of
today's consumers by interacting with them throughout all parts of their day. Endomondo
gives UA access to 20M members mainly in Europe, thus providing a pathway to connect
with consumers who are new to the brand in an integrated, multi-purpose way. Rounding
out the technology offering, MyFitnessPal serves as a health and nutrition resource for
more than 80M members. We view these acquisitions as long-term growth drivers that
should generate an increasingly connected global brand affiliation by integrating with
consumers in all aspects of their lives. We reiterate our BUY rating.
Investment highlights
Revenue guidance for 2015 was maintained at 22% growth, which given product
extensions in footwear and apparel coupled with rising ASPs, appears to be highly
conservative. EBIT growth is expected to be 12%-15%, down from 22%, mainly due to
one-time acquisition costs (which we estimate are ~9c-10c dilutive). Ex these costs,
we estimate EBIT growth would be in the 22% range. Revenue from Connected Fitness
should offset non-acquisition pressures such as FX (-1% to sales). GM is expected to
be modestly higher as supply chain benefits begin to flow through.
Estimate changes: We lowered our 2015 EPS estimate to $1.09 from $1.20
primarily due acquisition expenses and increased interest expense. For 2016, we are
introducing our $1.53 estimate on 24% sales growth.
Valuation
Our $97 target, up from $93 as we roll forward to our 2016 estimates, is a blend of 50x
our 2016E EPS, 25x EBITDA, and DCF.

Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : LSE)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all
the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.

For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 4 of this document.

Under Armour
Raising Target Price

Figure 1: UA 4Q variance chart

Estim ate Actual


Incom e Statem ent

4Q13A

4Q14

4Q14

Delta

EPS Im pact

Revenue
Apparel

545.5

681.9

707.7

25.8

Footw ear

55.4

72.0

85.8

13.8

Accessories

64.6

73.7

79.0

5.3

665.5

827.5

872.5

45.0

17.3

25.9

22.7

(3.2)

$682.8

$853.4

$895.2

$41.8

COGS

332.4

420.7

448.9

28.2

Gross Profit

350.4

432.7

446.3

13.6

SG&A

251.9

289.7

300.0

10.3

98.5

143.0

146.3

3.3

Total Net Sales


Licensing revenues
Total Net Revenue

Operating Incom e
Other Income, net

(1.3)

Pretax Income

97.2

Taxes
Net Income
EPS, diluted
Shares outstanding, diluted

(2.0)

(4.2)

(2.2)

$0.02

($0.01)

141.0

142.1

1.1

33.0

56.4

54.4

(2.0)

64.2

84.6

87.7

3.1

$0.30

$0.39

$0.40

0.0

$0.01

0.0

($0.00)

214.6

218.5

219.7

Margin Analysis
Gross Margin Total
y/y change (bps)
SG&A
leverage/(deleverage)

51.3%
1.06%

50.7%

49.9%

(0.85%)

($0.02)

(0.43%)

$0.01

(0.61%) (1.46%)

36.9%

33.9%

33.5%

(2.76%)

2.95%

3.38%

EBIT Margin

14.42%

16.8%

16.3%

(0.42%)

($0.01)

Taxes

33.96%

40.0%

38.3%

(1.70%)

$0.01

9.40%

9.9%

9.8%

(0.12%)

Net Income

Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity Research

Buy unchanged Target Price US$97.00 from US$93.00 | 5 February 2015

Footwear and Apparel 2

Under Armour
Raising Target Price

Figure 2: UA projected income statement


December Fiscal
Incom e Statem ent
Revenue
Apparel
Footw ear
Accessories
Total Net Sales
Licensing revenues
Total Net Revenue

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15E

2Q15E

3Q15E

4Q15E

1Q16E

2Q16E

3Q16E

4Q16E

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

459.2
114.0
51.6
624.8
16.8
641.6

420.0
109.5
59.9
589.5
20.2
609.7

704.6
121.6
84.9
911.1
26.8
937.9

707.7
85.8
79.0
872.5
22.7
895.2

560.3
159.7
62.9
782.8
20.1
803.0

512.4
142.4
77.9
732.7
24.2
756.9

873.7
164.2
97.7
1,135.5
32.2
1,167.7

856.3
115.8
90.8
1,063.0
27.3
1,090.2

694.8
215.5
81.8
992.1
24.1
1,016.2

635.4
185.1
101.3
921.8
29.0
950.8

1,065.9
221.6
112.3
1,399.8
38.6
1,438.4

1,036.1
156.4
104.5
1,297.0
32.7
1,329.7

853.5
127.2
43.9
1,024.6
39.4
1,063.9

1,122.0
181.7
132.4
1,436.1
36.6
1,472.7

1,385.4
239.0
165.8
1,790.1
44.8
1,834.9

1,762.2
298.8
216.1
2,277.1
55.0
2,332.1

2,291.5
431.0
275.4
2,997.9
86.4
3,084.4

2,802.7
582.1
329.3
3,714.1
103.7
3,817.8

3,432.1
778.7
399.9
4,610.7
124.5
4,735.1

COGS
Gross Profit
SG&A
Operating Incom e

340.9
300.7
273.8
26.9

309.7
300.0
265.3
34.7

472.6
465.3
319.2
146.1

448.9
446.3
300.0
146.3

424.8
378.2
358.7
19.5

383.0
373.9
339.5
34.4

586.2
581.5
399.0
182.5

542.9
547.3
375.0
172.3

528.4
487.8
439.4
48.3

477.3
473.5
407.4
66.1

719.2
719.2
486.8
232.4

658.2
671.5
457.4
214.0

533.4
530.5
418.2
112.4

759.8
712.8
550.1
162.8

955.6
879.3
670.6
208.7

1,195.4
1,136.7
871.6
265.1

1,572.2
1,512.2
1,158.3
354.0

1,936.9
1,880.9
1,472.2
408.7

2,383.1
2,352.0
1,791.1
560.9

Other Income, net


Pretax Income
Taxes
Net Income
EPS, diluted
Factsetl Consensus

(1.7)
25.1
11.6
$13.5
$0.06
$0.04

(1.0)
33.7
16.0
$17.7
$0.08
$0.07

(4.9)
141.2
52.1
$89.1
$0.41
$0.40

(4.2)
142.1
54.4
$87.7
$0.40
$0.39

(4.0)
15.5
6.0
$9.4
$0.04
$0.09

(4.0)
30.4
11.9
$18.5
$0.08
$0.12

(4.0)
178.5
69.6
$108.9
$0.49
$0.50

(4.0)
168.3
65.7
$102.7
$0.46
$0.49

(3.0)
45.3
17.5
$27.9
$0.13
$0.15

(3.0)
63.1
24.3
$38.8
$0.18
$0.18

(3.0)
229.4
88.3
$141.1
$0.64
$0.58

(3.0)
211.0
81.3
$129.8
$0.59
$0.56

(3.4)
108.9
40.4
$68.5
$0.33
$0.31

(5.9)
156.9
59.9
$96.9
$0.46
$0.46

(5.3)
203.4
74.7
$128.8
$0.61
$0.60

(4.1)
261.0
98.7
$162.3
$0.76
$0.72

(11.7)
342.2
134.2
208.0
$0.95
$0.94

(16.0)
392.7
153.2
239.6
$1.09
$1.21

(12.0)
548.9
211.3
337.6
$1.53
$1.52

216.9

217.3

218.0

219.7

220.0

220.3

220.6

220.9

220.9

220.9

220.9

220.9

205.1

210.1

212.6

214.3

218.0

220.5

220.9

46.9%
0.95%
42.7%
0.38%
4.2%
(0.3%)
46.1%
2.1%

49.2%
0.88%
43.5%
(2.30%)
5.7%
(0.2%)
47.5%
2.9%

49.6%
1.19%
34.0%
(2.32%)
15.6%
(0.5%)
36.9%
9.5%

49.9%
(1.46%)
33.5%
3.38%
16.3%
(0.5%)
38.3%
9.8%

47.1%
0.23%
44.7%
(2.00%)
2.4%
(0.5%)
39.0%
1.2%

49.4%
0.20%
44.9%
(1.35%)
4.5%
(0.5%)
39.0%
2.4%

49.8%
0.19%
34.2%
(0.14%)
15.6%
(0.3%)
39.0%
9.3%

50.2%
0.35%
34.4%
(0.88%)
15.8%
(0.4%)
39.0%
9.4%

48.0%
0.90%
43.2%
1.43%
4.8%
(0.3%)
38.5%
2.7%

49.8%
0.40%
42.8%
2.01%
7.0%
(0.3%)
38.5%
4.1%

50.0%
0.20%
33.8%
0.33%
16.2%
(0.2%)
38.5%
9.8%

50.5%
0.30%
34.4%
(0.01%)
16.1%
(0.2%)
38.5%
9.8%

49.9%
1.97%
39.3%
(1.37%)
10.6%
(0.3%)
37.1%
6.4%

48.4%
(1.46%)
37.4%
1.95%
11.1%
(0.4%)
38.2%
6.6%

47.9%
(0.48%)
36.5%
0.80%
11.4%
(0.3%)
36.7%
7.0%

48.7%
0.82%
37.4%
(0.83%)
11.4%
(0.2%)
37.8%
7.0%

49.0%
0.29%
37.6%
(0.18%)
11.5%
(0.4%)
39.2%
6.7%

49.3%
0.24%
38.6%
(1.01%)
10.7%
(0.4%)
39.0%
6.3%

49.7%
0.40%
37.8%
0.74%
11.8%
(0.3%)
38.5%
7.1%

32.9%
41.2%
42.9%
35.1%
81.8%
36.0%
38.9%
36.9%
34.9%
99.1%
73.3%
70.9%

35.4%
34.2%
17.5%
33.1%
73.1%
34.1%
36.6%
34.5%
41.6%
7.4%
0.7%
(0.7%)

25.6%
50.1%
32.0%
29.0%
59.1%
29.7%
32.9%
31.6%
39.2%
20.9%
22.4%
20.4%

29.7%
55.0%
22.2%
31.1%
31.6%
31.1%
27.4%
27.2%
19.1%
48.6%
36.7%
33.5%

22.0%
40.0%
22.0%
25.3%
20.0%
25.1%
25.8%
26.1%
31.0%
(27.5%)
(30.3%)
(31.3%)

22.0%
30.0%
30.0%
24.3%
20.0%
24.2%
24.7%
25.0%
28.0%
(0.9%)
4.8%
3.4%

24.0%
35.0%
15.0%
24.6%
20.0%
24.5%
25.0%
25.3%
25.0%
24.9%
22.2%
20.7%

21.0%
35.0%
15.0%
21.8%
20.0%
21.8%
22.6%
22.8%
25.0%
17.8%
17.1%
16.4%

24.0%
35.0%
30.0%
26.7%
20.0%
26.6%
29.0%
29.5%
22.5%
148.3%
195.5%
194.3%

24.0%
30.0%
30.0%
25.8%
20.0%
25.6%
26.6%
27.1%
20.0%
92.1%
109.3%
108.7%

22.0%
35.0%
15.0%
23.3%
20.0%
23.2%
23.7%
23.9%
22.0%
27.4%
29.6%
29.4%

21.0%
35.0%
15.0%
22.0%
20.0%
22.0%
22.7%
22.8%
22.0%
24.2%
26.4%
26.4%

30.9%
(6.6%)
25.1%
24.5%
18.1%
24.2%
29.4%
30.3%
28.7%
31.8%
46.3%
44.5%

31.5%
42.9%
201.7%
40.2%
(7.1%)
38.4%
34.4%
37.7%
31.5%
44.9%
41.5%
38.2%

23.5%
31.5%
25.3%
24.7%
22.5%
24.6%
23.4%
23.4%
21.9%
28.2%
32.9%
31.3%

27.2%
25.1%
30.3%
27.2%
22.8%
27.1%
29.3%
29.6%
30.0%
27.0%
26.1%
25.1%

30.0%
44.2%
27.5%
31.7%
57.2%
32.3%
33.0%
31.8%
32.9%
33.5%
28.2%
26.0%

22.3%
35.1%
19.6%
23.9%
20.0%
23.8%
24.4%
24.6%
27.1%
15.5%
15.1%
13.8%

22.5%
33.8%
21.4%
24.1%
20.0%
24.0%
25.0%
25.3%
21.7%
37.2%
40.9%
40.6%

Shares outstanding, diluted


Margin Analysis
Gross Margin Total
y/y change (bps)
SG&A
leverage/(deleverage)
EBIT Margin
Other income
Taxes
Net Income
Grow th Analysis
Revenue
Apparel
Footw ear
Accessories
Total Net Sales
Licensing revenues
Total Net Revenue
Gross Profit Dollars
Gross Profit Dollars ex-licensing revs
SG&A
EBIT
Net Income
EPS

Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity Research

Buy unchanged Target Price US$97.00 from US$93.00 | 5 February 2015

Footwear and Apparel 3

Under Armour
Raising Target Price

Appendix: Important Disclosures


Analyst Certification
Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the
recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analysts personal, independent and
objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring
analysts coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research.
Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of
Canaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications
with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Compendium Report
If this report covers six or more subject companies, it is a compendium report and Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies
hereby direct the reader to the specific disclosures related to the subject companies discussed in this report, which may be obtained at
the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/
Pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn: Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre,
2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a request by email to disclosures@canaccordgenuity.com.
The reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuitys policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of research by following
the steps outlined above.
Target Price / Valuation Methodology:
Under Armour - UA
Our $97 target is a blend of 50x our 2016E EPS, 25x EV/EBITDA, and DCF.
Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation:
Under Armour - UA
1.) We believe the primary risk to our thesis is a deceleration in sales. UA's premium multiple is predicated on the continuation of robust
sales growth and thus any perceived or actual slowdown in top-line trends would likely result in multiple compression. 2.) Another risk
includes continued supply chain issues that lead to gross margin contraction and/or order cancellations. While UA is acting to improve
its order fill rate with its customers, we do not expect a meaningful change to its supply constraints until H2/12. Should demand for its
product continue to outstrip supply, margins could suffer as the company is forced to compensate its customers for late deliveries. 3.)
Lastly, we consider footwear to be a risk as questions regarding UA's ability to succeed in this category remain unanswered. A lack of
improvement in future footwear launches, particularly running, could result in brand deterioration and stall growth in the category.
Distribution of Ratings:
Global Stock Ratings (as of 02/05/15)
Rating

Coverage Universe

IB Clients
%
32.94%
14.33%
2.27%
57.69%

#
%
592
58.27%
328
32.28%
44
4.33%
52
5.12%
1016*
100.0%
*Total includes stocks that are Under Review
Canaccord Genuity Ratings System
BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.

Buy
Hold
Sell
Speculative Buy

HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the
relevant issuer.
Risk Qualier

Buy unchanged Target Price US$97.00 from US$93.00 | 5 February 2015

Footwear and Apparel 4

Under Armour
Raising Target Price

SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the
stock may result in material loss.
Canaccord Genuity Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of Under Armour or
in any related derivatives.
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/
Investment Banking services from Under Armour in the next six months.
An analyst has visited the material operations of Under Armour. No payment was received for the related travel costs.
Under Armour Rating History as of 02/04/2015
B:$26.50
04/15/12

B:$27.50
04/22/12

B:NA
07/24/12

B:$29.00
07/25/12

B:$35.00
10/25/12

B:$34.00
01/31/13

B:$35.00
07/15/13

B:$38.00
07/25/13

B:$46.00
10/18/13

B:$60.00
01/31/14

Apr 2012

Jul 2012

Oct 2012

Jan 2013

Apr 2013

Jul 2013

Oct 2013

Jan 2014

Apr 2014

B:$80.00
07/24/14

B:$93.00
12/03/14

100
80
60
40
20
0

Closing Price

Jul 2014

Oct 2014

Jan 2015

Target Price

Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)

General Disclosures
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Canaccord Genuitys salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies
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Person: Tom Gunnersens tel # is +852 3919 2561) in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the [analyses or
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