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Under Armour: Impressive Q4 Sales Beat Bold Acquisitions Create Formidable User Base Reiterate BUY, New $97 PT
Under Armour: Impressive Q4 Sales Beat Bold Acquisitions Create Formidable User Base Reiterate BUY, New $97 PT
US Equity Research
5 February 2015
BUY
unchanged
2014A
2015E
2016E
3,084
3,043
5.2
3,818
3,756
4.2
4,735
3.4
0.95
0.94
77.1
1.09
1.20
67.7
1.53
48.2
EPS (US$)
Previous
P/E (x)
Quarterly Sales
2014A
2015E
2016E
Quarterly EPS
2014A
2015E
2016E
45.05 - 73.95
218.0
16,037
Q1
641.6
803.0
1,016
Q2
609.7
756.9
950.8
Q3
937.9
1,168
1,438
Q4
895.2
1,090
1,330
Q1
0.06
0.04
0.13
Q2
0.08
0.08
0.18
Q3
0.41
0.49
0.64
Q4
0.40
0.46
0.59
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
40
UA
S&P500(rebased)
Source:FactSet
Investment recommendation
UA reported strong 4Q EPS of 40c vs. our consensus estimate of 39c. Relative to
our model, the beat was driven by impressive sales growth (+2c) and resulting SG&A
leverage (+1c), partially offset by lower gross margin (-2c). Revenue growth of 31% vs.
our 25% estimate was superb as it proves UA can sustain the accelerated momentum
it began in 4Q13 despite a tough 35% growth comparison. As we previewed, all parts
of the business performed well in Q4 as footwear (+55% vs. our 30% est.), apparel
(+30% vs. our 25% est.) and accessories (+22% vs.our 14% est.) contributed to the
excellent results. Gross margin of 49.9% was 85bps below our estimate due to higher
mix of international (-90bps), FX (-20bps), and higher air freight (20bps). All in, this was
a solid quarter that serves as evidence of UA's ability to execute and take share even in a
challenging and volatile environment.
Separately, UA announced the acquisition of two companies that add category breadth
(nutrition) and geographic reach (Europe) to its Connected Fitness ecosystem. With
the acquisition of MyFitnessPal ($475M) and Endomondo ($85M), UA has amassed
the world's largest Connected Fitness user platform with over 120M members. The
opportunity to speak to, engage, advise, and track data for 120M people who actively
participate in a form of athletic activity cannot be understated. This is a bold and
aggressive direction UA is taking to address the ever-changing consumption habits of
today's consumers by interacting with them throughout all parts of their day. Endomondo
gives UA access to 20M members mainly in Europe, thus providing a pathway to connect
with consumers who are new to the brand in an integrated, multi-purpose way. Rounding
out the technology offering, MyFitnessPal serves as a health and nutrition resource for
more than 80M members. We view these acquisitions as long-term growth drivers that
should generate an increasingly connected global brand affiliation by integrating with
consumers in all aspects of their lives. We reiterate our BUY rating.
Investment highlights
Revenue guidance for 2015 was maintained at 22% growth, which given product
extensions in footwear and apparel coupled with rising ASPs, appears to be highly
conservative. EBIT growth is expected to be 12%-15%, down from 22%, mainly due to
one-time acquisition costs (which we estimate are ~9c-10c dilutive). Ex these costs,
we estimate EBIT growth would be in the 22% range. Revenue from Connected Fitness
should offset non-acquisition pressures such as FX (-1% to sales). GM is expected to
be modestly higher as supply chain benefits begin to flow through.
Estimate changes: We lowered our 2015 EPS estimate to $1.09 from $1.20
primarily due acquisition expenses and increased interest expense. For 2016, we are
introducing our $1.53 estimate on 24% sales growth.
Valuation
Our $97 target, up from $93 as we roll forward to our 2016 estimates, is a blend of 50x
our 2016E EPS, 25x EBITDA, and DCF.
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : LSE)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and all
the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 4 of this document.
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
4Q13A
4Q14
4Q14
Delta
EPS Im pact
Revenue
Apparel
545.5
681.9
707.7
25.8
Footw ear
55.4
72.0
85.8
13.8
Accessories
64.6
73.7
79.0
5.3
665.5
827.5
872.5
45.0
17.3
25.9
22.7
(3.2)
$682.8
$853.4
$895.2
$41.8
COGS
332.4
420.7
448.9
28.2
Gross Profit
350.4
432.7
446.3
13.6
SG&A
251.9
289.7
300.0
10.3
98.5
143.0
146.3
3.3
Operating Incom e
Other Income, net
(1.3)
Pretax Income
97.2
Taxes
Net Income
EPS, diluted
Shares outstanding, diluted
(2.0)
(4.2)
(2.2)
$0.02
($0.01)
141.0
142.1
1.1
33.0
56.4
54.4
(2.0)
64.2
84.6
87.7
3.1
$0.30
$0.39
$0.40
0.0
$0.01
0.0
($0.00)
214.6
218.5
219.7
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin Total
y/y change (bps)
SG&A
leverage/(deleverage)
51.3%
1.06%
50.7%
49.9%
(0.85%)
($0.02)
(0.43%)
$0.01
(0.61%) (1.46%)
36.9%
33.9%
33.5%
(2.76%)
2.95%
3.38%
EBIT Margin
14.42%
16.8%
16.3%
(0.42%)
($0.01)
Taxes
33.96%
40.0%
38.3%
(1.70%)
$0.01
9.40%
9.9%
9.8%
(0.12%)
Net Income
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15E
2Q15E
3Q15E
4Q15E
1Q16E
2Q16E
3Q16E
4Q16E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
459.2
114.0
51.6
624.8
16.8
641.6
420.0
109.5
59.9
589.5
20.2
609.7
704.6
121.6
84.9
911.1
26.8
937.9
707.7
85.8
79.0
872.5
22.7
895.2
560.3
159.7
62.9
782.8
20.1
803.0
512.4
142.4
77.9
732.7
24.2
756.9
873.7
164.2
97.7
1,135.5
32.2
1,167.7
856.3
115.8
90.8
1,063.0
27.3
1,090.2
694.8
215.5
81.8
992.1
24.1
1,016.2
635.4
185.1
101.3
921.8
29.0
950.8
1,065.9
221.6
112.3
1,399.8
38.6
1,438.4
1,036.1
156.4
104.5
1,297.0
32.7
1,329.7
853.5
127.2
43.9
1,024.6
39.4
1,063.9
1,122.0
181.7
132.4
1,436.1
36.6
1,472.7
1,385.4
239.0
165.8
1,790.1
44.8
1,834.9
1,762.2
298.8
216.1
2,277.1
55.0
2,332.1
2,291.5
431.0
275.4
2,997.9
86.4
3,084.4
2,802.7
582.1
329.3
3,714.1
103.7
3,817.8
3,432.1
778.7
399.9
4,610.7
124.5
4,735.1
COGS
Gross Profit
SG&A
Operating Incom e
340.9
300.7
273.8
26.9
309.7
300.0
265.3
34.7
472.6
465.3
319.2
146.1
448.9
446.3
300.0
146.3
424.8
378.2
358.7
19.5
383.0
373.9
339.5
34.4
586.2
581.5
399.0
182.5
542.9
547.3
375.0
172.3
528.4
487.8
439.4
48.3
477.3
473.5
407.4
66.1
719.2
719.2
486.8
232.4
658.2
671.5
457.4
214.0
533.4
530.5
418.2
112.4
759.8
712.8
550.1
162.8
955.6
879.3
670.6
208.7
1,195.4
1,136.7
871.6
265.1
1,572.2
1,512.2
1,158.3
354.0
1,936.9
1,880.9
1,472.2
408.7
2,383.1
2,352.0
1,791.1
560.9
(1.7)
25.1
11.6
$13.5
$0.06
$0.04
(1.0)
33.7
16.0
$17.7
$0.08
$0.07
(4.9)
141.2
52.1
$89.1
$0.41
$0.40
(4.2)
142.1
54.4
$87.7
$0.40
$0.39
(4.0)
15.5
6.0
$9.4
$0.04
$0.09
(4.0)
30.4
11.9
$18.5
$0.08
$0.12
(4.0)
178.5
69.6
$108.9
$0.49
$0.50
(4.0)
168.3
65.7
$102.7
$0.46
$0.49
(3.0)
45.3
17.5
$27.9
$0.13
$0.15
(3.0)
63.1
24.3
$38.8
$0.18
$0.18
(3.0)
229.4
88.3
$141.1
$0.64
$0.58
(3.0)
211.0
81.3
$129.8
$0.59
$0.56
(3.4)
108.9
40.4
$68.5
$0.33
$0.31
(5.9)
156.9
59.9
$96.9
$0.46
$0.46
(5.3)
203.4
74.7
$128.8
$0.61
$0.60
(4.1)
261.0
98.7
$162.3
$0.76
$0.72
(11.7)
342.2
134.2
208.0
$0.95
$0.94
(16.0)
392.7
153.2
239.6
$1.09
$1.21
(12.0)
548.9
211.3
337.6
$1.53
$1.52
216.9
217.3
218.0
219.7
220.0
220.3
220.6
220.9
220.9
220.9
220.9
220.9
205.1
210.1
212.6
214.3
218.0
220.5
220.9
46.9%
0.95%
42.7%
0.38%
4.2%
(0.3%)
46.1%
2.1%
49.2%
0.88%
43.5%
(2.30%)
5.7%
(0.2%)
47.5%
2.9%
49.6%
1.19%
34.0%
(2.32%)
15.6%
(0.5%)
36.9%
9.5%
49.9%
(1.46%)
33.5%
3.38%
16.3%
(0.5%)
38.3%
9.8%
47.1%
0.23%
44.7%
(2.00%)
2.4%
(0.5%)
39.0%
1.2%
49.4%
0.20%
44.9%
(1.35%)
4.5%
(0.5%)
39.0%
2.4%
49.8%
0.19%
34.2%
(0.14%)
15.6%
(0.3%)
39.0%
9.3%
50.2%
0.35%
34.4%
(0.88%)
15.8%
(0.4%)
39.0%
9.4%
48.0%
0.90%
43.2%
1.43%
4.8%
(0.3%)
38.5%
2.7%
49.8%
0.40%
42.8%
2.01%
7.0%
(0.3%)
38.5%
4.1%
50.0%
0.20%
33.8%
0.33%
16.2%
(0.2%)
38.5%
9.8%
50.5%
0.30%
34.4%
(0.01%)
16.1%
(0.2%)
38.5%
9.8%
49.9%
1.97%
39.3%
(1.37%)
10.6%
(0.3%)
37.1%
6.4%
48.4%
(1.46%)
37.4%
1.95%
11.1%
(0.4%)
38.2%
6.6%
47.9%
(0.48%)
36.5%
0.80%
11.4%
(0.3%)
36.7%
7.0%
48.7%
0.82%
37.4%
(0.83%)
11.4%
(0.2%)
37.8%
7.0%
49.0%
0.29%
37.6%
(0.18%)
11.5%
(0.4%)
39.2%
6.7%
49.3%
0.24%
38.6%
(1.01%)
10.7%
(0.4%)
39.0%
6.3%
49.7%
0.40%
37.8%
0.74%
11.8%
(0.3%)
38.5%
7.1%
32.9%
41.2%
42.9%
35.1%
81.8%
36.0%
38.9%
36.9%
34.9%
99.1%
73.3%
70.9%
35.4%
34.2%
17.5%
33.1%
73.1%
34.1%
36.6%
34.5%
41.6%
7.4%
0.7%
(0.7%)
25.6%
50.1%
32.0%
29.0%
59.1%
29.7%
32.9%
31.6%
39.2%
20.9%
22.4%
20.4%
29.7%
55.0%
22.2%
31.1%
31.6%
31.1%
27.4%
27.2%
19.1%
48.6%
36.7%
33.5%
22.0%
40.0%
22.0%
25.3%
20.0%
25.1%
25.8%
26.1%
31.0%
(27.5%)
(30.3%)
(31.3%)
22.0%
30.0%
30.0%
24.3%
20.0%
24.2%
24.7%
25.0%
28.0%
(0.9%)
4.8%
3.4%
24.0%
35.0%
15.0%
24.6%
20.0%
24.5%
25.0%
25.3%
25.0%
24.9%
22.2%
20.7%
21.0%
35.0%
15.0%
21.8%
20.0%
21.8%
22.6%
22.8%
25.0%
17.8%
17.1%
16.4%
24.0%
35.0%
30.0%
26.7%
20.0%
26.6%
29.0%
29.5%
22.5%
148.3%
195.5%
194.3%
24.0%
30.0%
30.0%
25.8%
20.0%
25.6%
26.6%
27.1%
20.0%
92.1%
109.3%
108.7%
22.0%
35.0%
15.0%
23.3%
20.0%
23.2%
23.7%
23.9%
22.0%
27.4%
29.6%
29.4%
21.0%
35.0%
15.0%
22.0%
20.0%
22.0%
22.7%
22.8%
22.0%
24.2%
26.4%
26.4%
30.9%
(6.6%)
25.1%
24.5%
18.1%
24.2%
29.4%
30.3%
28.7%
31.8%
46.3%
44.5%
31.5%
42.9%
201.7%
40.2%
(7.1%)
38.4%
34.4%
37.7%
31.5%
44.9%
41.5%
38.2%
23.5%
31.5%
25.3%
24.7%
22.5%
24.6%
23.4%
23.4%
21.9%
28.2%
32.9%
31.3%
27.2%
25.1%
30.3%
27.2%
22.8%
27.1%
29.3%
29.6%
30.0%
27.0%
26.1%
25.1%
30.0%
44.2%
27.5%
31.7%
57.2%
32.3%
33.0%
31.8%
32.9%
33.5%
28.2%
26.0%
22.3%
35.1%
19.6%
23.9%
20.0%
23.8%
24.4%
24.6%
27.1%
15.5%
15.1%
13.8%
22.5%
33.8%
21.4%
24.1%
20.0%
24.0%
25.0%
25.3%
21.7%
37.2%
40.9%
40.6%
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
Coverage Universe
IB Clients
%
32.94%
14.33%
2.27%
57.69%
#
%
592
58.27%
328
32.28%
44
4.33%
52
5.12%
1016*
100.0%
*Total includes stocks that are Under Review
Canaccord Genuity Ratings System
BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
Buy
Hold
Sell
Speculative Buy
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the
relevant issuer.
Risk Qualier
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the
stock may result in material loss.
Canaccord Genuity Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of Under Armour or
in any related derivatives.
Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/
Investment Banking services from Under Armour in the next six months.
An analyst has visited the material operations of Under Armour. No payment was received for the related travel costs.
Under Armour Rating History as of 02/04/2015
B:$26.50
04/15/12
B:$27.50
04/22/12
B:NA
07/24/12
B:$29.00
07/25/12
B:$35.00
10/25/12
B:$34.00
01/31/13
B:$35.00
07/15/13
B:$38.00
07/25/13
B:$46.00
10/18/13
B:$60.00
01/31/14
Apr 2012
Jul 2012
Oct 2012
Jan 2013
Apr 2013
Jul 2013
Oct 2013
Jan 2014
Apr 2014
B:$80.00
07/24/14
B:$93.00
12/03/14
100
80
60
40
20
0
Closing Price
Jul 2014
Oct 2014
Jan 2015
Target Price
Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)
General Disclosures
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The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research are employed by Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadian
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The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research have received (or will receive) compensation based upon
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Buy unchanged Target Price US$97.00 from US$93.00 | 5 February 2015
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
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Buy unchanged Target Price US$97.00 from US$93.00 | 5 February 2015
Under Armour
Raising Target Price
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